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2014 Arizona gubernatorial election

none

Field	Value
election_name	2014 Arizona gubernatorial election
country	Arizona
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2010 Arizona gubernatorial election
previous_year	2010
next_election	2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
next_year	2018
election_date	November 4, 2014
image1	File:Doug Ducey by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
image_size	150x150px
nominee1	Doug Ducey
party1	Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1	805,062
percentage1	53.44%
image2	File:Fred DuVal by Gage Skidmore 3.jpg
nominee2	Fred DuVal
party2	Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2	626,921
percentage2	41.62%
map_image
map_caption	Ducey:
DuVal:
title	Governor
before_election	Jan Brewer
before_party	Republican Party (United States)
after_election	Doug Ducey
after_party	Republican Party (United States)
turnout	47.52% 8.13pp

DuVal:
The 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Arizona, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer was term-limited and could not run for a second consecutive full term in office. After a competitive six-candidate primary, Republicans nominated Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey. Democrat Fred DuVal, the former chair of the Arizona Board of Regents, won his party's nomination unopposed. Ducey won the election with 53% of the vote.

Background

Democratic governor Janet Napolitano resigned on January 21, 2009, to be sworn in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor on the same day. She was elected to a full term in 2010, defeating Democrat Terry Goddard, the Arizona Attorney General, by 54% to 42%.

Brewer was term-limited in 2014, despite only serving one full term. This is because Arizona state law limits office holders to two consecutive terms regardless of whether they serve full or partial terms. In November 2012, Brewer declared she was looking into what she called "ambiguity" in Arizona's term-limit law to seek a third term. In February 2014, Brewer reiterated that she was considering running for re-election, but on March 12, 2014, she announced that she would not attempt to seek another term in office, which would have required what The Arizona Republic called a "long-shot court challenge".

Republican primary

The Republican primary campaign was widely characterised as being "bitter" and "nasty" and the $16.2 million spent by the six Republican candidates means that the 2014 election has already broken the record for most expensive gubernatorial race in state history, exceeding the 2002 election in which $9.2 million was spent during the primary and general election campaigns combined.

Candidates

Declared

Ken Bennett, Secretary of State of Arizona
Doug Ducey, State Treasurer of Arizona
Christine Jones, former executive vice president, General Counsel and corporate secretary for Go Daddy
Frank Riggs, former U.S. representative from California and candidate for the U.S. Senate from California in 1998
Scott Smith, Mayor of Mesa
Andrew Thomas, former county attorney of Maricopa County, disbarred lawyer, and candidate for Arizona Attorney General in 2010

Withdrew

Hugh Hallman, former mayor of Tempe (ran for state treasurer and lost)
Al Melvin, state senator
John Molina, OB/GYN and former CEO of Phoenix Indian Medical Center

Declined

Joe Arpaio, Sheriff of Maricopa County
Jan Brewer, incumbent governor
Brenda Burns, Corporation Commissioner
Wil Cardon, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (ran for Secretary of State and lost)
Tom Horne, Attorney General of Arizona (ran for re-election and lost)
Martha McSally, retired United States Air Force colonel and nominee for Arizona's 2nd congressional district in 2012 (ran for AZ-02 and won)
Steve Pierce, state senator
Steven Seagal, actor and reserve deputy sheriff

Endorsements

Individuals

Joe Arpaio, Sheriff of Maricopa County (1993-2017)
Steve Chucri, Maricopa County Supervisor and president/CEO of the Arizona Restaurant Association
Jerry Colangelo, businessman and former owner of the Phoenix Suns and Arizona Diamondbacks
Sal DiCiccio, Phoenix City Councilman (2009-2023)
Trent Franks, U.S. representative of Arizona's 8th congressional district (2003-2017)
Barry Goldwater, Jr., former U.S. representative of California's 20th congressional district (1969-1983)
Hugh Hewitt, former Deputy Director of the OPM (1988-1989), talk radio host (1991-present)
Jon Kyl, former U.S. senator from Arizona (1995-2013) and former U.S. representative for (1987-1995)
Bill Montgomery, Maricopa County Attorney (2010-2019)
John Shadegg, former U.S. representative for (1995-2011)
Fife Symington, 19th Governor of Arizona (1991-1997)

Organizations

Arizona Free Enterprise Club
Arizona Right to Life

Individuals

Russell Pearce, former president of the Arizona Senate (2011) from the 18th district (2008-2011)
Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995-2007) and candidate for president in 2012

Organizations

Arizonans Against Common Core

Individuals

Jan Brewer, incumbent governor

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Ken
Bennett	Doug
Ducey	Christine
Jones	Al
Melvin	John
Molina	Frank
Riggs	Scott
Smith	Andrew
Thomas	Undecided
Magellan Strategies	August 17–21, 2014	1,281	± 2.74%	12%	32%	18%	—	—	2%	21%	8%	7%
Harper Polling	August 19–20, 2014	812	± 3.44%	14%	32%	16%	—	—	2%	19%	7%	10%
Remington	August 17–19, 2014	502	± 4.37%	10%	33%	18%	—	—	1%	22%	11%	5%
Magellan Strategies	August 15–18, 2014	1,322	± ?	12%	31%	17%	—	—	3%	22%	8%	7%
Magellan Strategies	August 12–15, 2014	1,300	± ?	10%	31%	16%	—	—	3%	23%	7%	10%
Magellan Strategies	August 5–7, 2014	1,289	± 2.73%	11%	29%	13%	—	—	4%	22%	9%	12%
Magellan Strategies	July 28–31, 2014	1,644	± ?	12%	23%	13%	—	—	5%	21%	10%	16%
Undisclosed	Late July 2014	?	± ?	10%	23%	20%	—	—	2%	15%	9%	21%
Harper Polling	July 16–17, 2014	885	± 3.29%	12%	23%	21%	—	—	1%	13%	7%	22%
Behavior Research Center	July 10–17, 2014	459	± 4.7%	10%	13%	17%	—	—	2%	8%	0%	50%
Gravis Marketing	July 14, 2014	691	± 4%	7%	28%	19%	—	—	1%	14%	8%	24%
Highground	July 10–12, 2014	400	± 4.9%	3.5%	17.3%	15.3%	—	—	1.5%	9.8%	3%	49.8%
Magellan Strategies	July 9–10, 2014	593	± 4.02%	11%	26%	22%	—	—	2%	14%	6%	19%
Harper Polling	June 25–26, 2014	791	± 3.48%	12%	33%	15%	—	—	2%	14%	3%	22%
McLaughlin & Associates	June 10, 2014	400	± 3.48%	8%	22.8%	6.2%	—	—	—	6.5%	—	56.5%
Magellan Strategies	June 3–4, 2014	630	± 3.9%	12%	28%	12%	2%	—	2%	16%	5%	23%
Magellan Strategies	May 13–14, 2014	760	± 3.6%	12.7%	27.3%	11.9%	1.3%	0.2%	0.7%	11.5%	5.6%	28.8%
Undisclosed	April 29, 2014	1,367	± 3.5%	7%	4%	10%	—	—	—	9%	5%	65%
Magellan Strategies	April 8–9, 2014	?	± ?	15%	9%	14%	—	—	1%	6%	6%	45%
Public Policy Polling	Feb. 28–Mar. 2, 2014	403	± 4.9%	20%	6%	16%	1%	1%	1%	12%	9%	34%
Behavior Research Center	January 16–26, 2014	701	± 3.8%	6%	2%	8%	1%	—	—	7%	7%	69%
Susquehanna	Nov. 27–Dec. 4 2013	245	± ?	20%	8%	4%	2%	—	—	6%	4%	56%

Debate

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican	Key:
Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn	Republican Party (US)}}"		Republican Party (US)}}"		Republican Party (US)}}"		Republican Party (US)}}"		Republican Party (US)}}"		Republican Party (US)}}"		Ken Bennett	Doug Ducey	Christine Jones	Frank Riggs	Scott Smith	Andrew Thomas	1
Jul. 20, 2014	Arizona PBS	Ted Simons	[PBS](https://www.pbs.org/video/arizona-horizon-vote-2014-gubernatorial-republicans-clean-elections-debate/)

Results

Results by county:

]]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Fred DuVal, former chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents

Withdrew

Ronald Cavanaugh, Libertarian candidate for governor in 2010

Declined

Chad Campbell, Minority Leader of the Arizona House of Representatives
Richard Carmona, former Surgeon General and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012
Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe
Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General, candidate for governor in 1994 and nominee for governor in 1990 and 2010 (ran for Secretary of State and lost)
Marco A. López Jr., former chief of staff for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and former mayor of Nogales
Janet Napolitano, president of the University of California, former secretary of the Department of Homeland Security and former governor of Arizona
Felecia Rotellini, attorney and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2010 (ran for Attorney General and lost)
Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix

Endorsements

Bruce Babbitt, former governor of Arizona and former United States Secretary of the Interior
Raúl Héctor Castro, former governor of Arizona and former United States Ambassador to El Salvador, Bolivia and Argentina
Sam Coppersmith, former U.S. representative and former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party
Karan English, former U.S. representative
Gabby Giffords, former U.S. representative
Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe
Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix
Raúl Grijalva, U.S. representative
Mark Kelly, astronaut
Harry Mitchell, former U.S. representative, former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party and former mayor of Tempe
Rose Mofford, former governor of Arizona
Ed Pastor, U.S. representative
Jim Pederson, businessman, former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2006

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Ron
Cavanaugh	Fred
DuVal	Undecided
Behavior Research Center	January 16–26, 2014	?	± ?	12%	18%	72%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Chad
Campbell	Fred
DuVal	Undecided
Myers Research	May 22–June 13, 2012	?	± ?	31%	18%	51%

Results

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

Brian Bailey (independent write-in candidate), Arizona Army National Guardsman
Cary Dolego (independent), write-in candidate for governor in 2010
Barry Hess (Libertarian Party), perennial candidate
Joseph James "J." Johnson (unaffiliated write-in candidate), food account manager and brother of Eddie Johnson
John Lewis Mealer (Americans Elect), candidate for the Americans Elect nomination for president in 2012
Alice Novoa (Republican write-in candidate)
Diana-Elizabeth Ramseys Rasmussen Kennedy (Independent write-in candidate)
Curtis Woolsey (unaffiliated write-in candidate)

Results

General election

Debates

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Republican	Libertarian	Key:
Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn	Republican Party (US)}}"		Democratic Party (US)}}"	Libertarian Party (US)}}"	Americans Elect}}"	Doug Ducey	Fred DuVal	Barry Hess	John Lewis Mealer	1	2
Sep. 10, 2014	Chandler Center for the Arts
KPNX	Brahm Resnik	[C-SPAN](https://www.c-span.org/program/campaign-2014/arizona-gubernatorial-debate/365504)
Sep. 28, 2014	Arizona PBS	Ted Simons	[PBS](https://www.pbs.org/video/arizona-horizon-vote-2014-gubernatorial-debate/)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report		November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball		November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report		November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics		November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Doug
Ducey (R)	Fred
DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	October 16–23, 2014	2,621	± 4%	50%	40%	1%	9%
The Polling Company	October 20–22, 2014	601	± 4%	42%	35%	7%	15%
Rasmussen Reports	October 14–16, 2014	1,056	± 3%	47%	42%	3%	7%
Tarrance Group	October 13–16, 2014	500	± 4.5%	43%	36%	5%	16%
McLaughlin & Associates	October 12–14, 2014	500	± 4.5%	37%	36%	5%Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%	22%
Adrian Gray Consulting	October 8–9, 2014	600	± 4%	43%	35%	8%Barry Hess (L) 5%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%	14%
Moore Information	October 7–8, 2014	400	± ≈4.9%	36%	39%	4%Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%	21%
The Polling Company	October 6–8, 2014	600	± 4%	46%	37%	5%	11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	September 20–October 1, 2014	2,808	± 3%	50%	39%	2%	9%
Keating Research	September 17–19, 2014	600	± 4%	41%	39%	7%	13%
Tarrance Group	September 15–17, 2014	505	± 4.5%	44%	38%	7%Barry Hess (L) 6%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%	11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	August 18–September 2, 2014	3,289	± 3%	39%	38%	15%	9%
Rasmussen Reports	August 27–28, 2014	850	± 3%	40%	40%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling	August 24–25, 2014	588	± 4%	35%	35%	12%	18%
Public Policy Polling	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	35%	36%	—	29%
Undisclosed	February 2014	500	± ?	32%	32%	6%	30%
Behavior Research Center	January 16–26, 2014	701	± 3.8%	21%	23%	—	56%
Susquehanna	November 27–December 4, 2013	600	± 4%	36%	33%	—	31%

With Bennett

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Ken
Bennett (R)	Fred
DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	37%	33%	—	30%
Behavior Research Center	January 16–26, 2014	701	± 3.8%	26%	22%	—	52%
Susquehanna	November 27–December 4, 2013	600	± 4%	38%	33%	—	28%

With Jones

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Christine
Jones (R)	Fred
DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	July 5–24, 2014	3,778	± ?	45%	34%	13%	7%
Public Policy Polling	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	33%	37%	—	30%

With Melvin

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Al
Melvin (R)	Fred
DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	32%	37%	—	31%

With Molina

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	John
Molina (R)	Fred
DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	32%	35%	—	33%

With Riggs

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Frank
Riggs (R)	Fred
DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	32%	36%	—	31%

With Smith

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Scott
Smith (R)	Fred
DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	39%	33%	—	28%
Behavior Research Center	January 16–26, 2014	701	± 3.8%	20%	23%	—	57%

With Thomas

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Andrew
Thomas (R)	Fred
DuVal (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 28–March 2, 2014	870	± 3.3%	35%	40%	—	25%

Results

By county

County	Doug Ducey
Republican	Fred DuVal
Democratic	Barry Hess
Libertarian	John L. Mealer
Americans Elect	Write-in	Margin	Total
votes	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%		Apache		Cochise		Coconino		Gila		Graham		Greenlee	La Paz	Maricopa	Mohave	Navajo	Pima	Pinal	Santa Cruz	Yavapai	Yuma	Totals
	5,871		28.52		13,562		65.88		684		3.32	458	2.22		9		0.04		-7,691		-37.36		20,584
	21,662		59.41		12,709		34.85		1,611		4.41	457	1.25		22		0.06		8,953		24.56		36,461
	14,528		39.64		20,212		55.15		1,650		4.50	496	1.35		53		0.01		-5,684		-15.51		36,645
	9,610		60.67		5,253		33.16		769		5.34	202	1.27		5		0.03		4,357		27.51		15,839
	4,985		68.60		1,919		26.41		269		3.70	90	1.23		3		0.04		3,066		42.19		7,266
	995		51.82		792		41.25		104		5.41	29	1.51		1		0.05		203		10.57		1,920
	2,388		68.54		846		24.28		195		5.59	53	1.52		2		0.05		1,542		44.26		3,484
	469,200		54.69		346,879		40.43		32,466		3.78	8,167	0.95		1,066		0.01		122,321		14.26		857,778
	33,150		71.02		10,662		22.84		2,242		4.80	604	1.29		17		0.03		22,488		48.18		46,675
	13,569		49.61		12,128		44.34		1080		3.94	553	2.02		19		0.06		1,441		5.27		27,349
	122,966		45.43		136,302		50.35		8,899		3.28	2,312	0.85		191		0.07		-13,336		-4.92		270,670
	41,313		57.80		26,131		36.56		2,966		4.14	832	1.16		231		0.32		15,182		21.24		71,473
	3,175		34.05		5,819		62.40		239		2.56	90	0.96		1		0.01		-2,644		-28.35		9,324
	46,806		63.11		23,210		31.29		3,287		4.43	820	1.10		31		0.04		23,596		31.82		74,154
	14,844		56.01		10,497		39.61		876		3.30	269	1.01		13		0.04		4,347		16.40		26,499
805,062	53.44	626,921	41.61	57,337	3.80	15,432	1.02	1,664	0.11	178,141	11.83	1,506,416

By congressional district

Ducey won six of nine congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

District	DuVal	Ducey	Representative
46.0%	48.87%		Ann Kirkpatrick
46.95%	48.73%		Martha McSally
56.31%	38.77%		Raúl Grijalva
27.43%	66.84%		Paul Gosar
		32.64%	62.83%	Matt Salmon
37.56%	58.27%		David Schweikert
65.18%	29.29%		Ruben Gallego
33.64%	61.2%		Trent Franks
49.06%	46.3%		Kyrsten Sinema

References

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