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2010 Arizona gubernatorial election
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| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| election_name | 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election |
| country | Arizona |
| type | presidential |
| ongoing | Yes |
| previous_election | 2006 Arizona gubernatorial election |
| previous_year | 2006 |
| next_election | 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election |
| next_year | 2014 |
| election_date | November 2, 2010 |
| image1 | File:Jan Brewer by Gage Skidmore 5.jpg |
| nominee1 | **Jan Brewer** |
| party1 | Republican Party (United States) |
| popular_vote1 | **938,934** |
| percentage1 | **54.33%** |
| image2 | File:Terry Goddard by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg |
| image_size | 150x150px |
| nominee2 | Terry Goddard |
| party2 | Democratic Party (United States) |
| popular_vote2 | 733,935 |
| percentage2 | 42.43% |
| map_image | |
| map_size | 210px |
| map_caption | **Brewer:** |
| **Goddard:** | |
| **Tie:** | |
| title | Governor |
| before_election | Jan Brewer |
| before_party | Republican Party (United States) |
| after_election | Jan Brewer |
| after_party | Republican Party (United States) |
| turnout | 55.65% 4.82pp |
Goddard:
Tie:
The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Brewer ascended to the governorship following the resignation of the incumbent Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano to become Secretary of Homeland Security in the Obama Administration. Primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.
Background
Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term limited and nominated to become Secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day. Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009, that she would seek a full term in 2010.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Terry Goddard, State Attorney General, former mayor of Phoenix, nominee for governor in 1990, and candidate in 1994
Declined
- Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe
- Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix
Republican primary
The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010.
Candidates
Declared
- Jan Brewer, incumbent governor
- Matt Jette
Withdrew
- Dean Martin, Arizona State Treasurer (dropped out on July 9, 2010, and endorsed Brewer)
- Owen Mills, member of the National Rifle Association of America Board of Directors (dropped out on July 13, 2010)
Declined
- Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff
- J.D. Hayworth, former U.S. Representative
- John Munger, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party
- Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley (ran for Congress)
- Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Jan Brewer (inc.) | Dean Martin* | Buz Mills* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | June 16, 2010 | **72%** | 12% | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 17, 2010 | **45%** | 18% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 23–25, 2010 | **25%** | 15% | 11% |
| **58%** | 16% | 19% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | April 13, 2010 | **26%** | 12% | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 15, 2010 | 20% | **21%** | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 20, 2010 | **29%** | 27% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports | November 18, 2009 | 10% | **22%** | — |
| Public Policy Polling | September 21, 2009 | **39%** | 26% | — |
:***** Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination
Results
]] :***** Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot
Libertarian primary
Candidates
- Ronald Cavanaugh
- Barry Hess
- Bruce Olsen
- Alvin Ray Yount
Results
General election
Candidates
- Jan Brewer (R), incumbent governor
- Terry Goddard (D), attorney general
- Barry Hess (L)
- Larry Gist (G)
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | October 14, 2010 | |
| Rothenberg | October 28, 2010 | |
| RealClearPolitics | November 1, 2010 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | October 28, 2010 | |
| CQ Politics | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Terry Goddard (D) | Jan Brewer (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | October 28, 2010 | 39% | **53%** |
| Public Policy Polling | October 23–24, 2010 | 44% | **52%** |
| BRC Polls | October 11, 2010 | 35% | **38%** |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 3, 2010 | 39% | **55%** |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 7, 2010 | 38% | **60%** |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 25, 2010 | 38% | **57%** |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 21, 2010 | 37% | **56%** |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 29, 2010 | 35% | **53%** |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 17, 2010 | 39% | **52%** |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 27, 2010 | 40% | **48%** |
| Public Policy Polling | April 23–25, 2010 | **47%** | 44% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 14, 2010 | 40% | **44%** |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 16, 2010 | **45%** | 43% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 20, 2010 | **43%** | 42% |
| Rasmussen Reports | November 18, 2009 | **44%** | 42% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 27, 2009 | **42%** | 40% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 7, 2009 | **46%** | 36% |
Debate
On September 1, the first and only debate was held between all four candidates and moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Before the debate the governor had made several comments about there being beheadings in the desert. During the debate Terry Goddard tried to get the governor to admit that it was a false statement. Goddard said quote * Jan I'm going to give you an opportunity to admit that was a false statement but of course the governor Steered clear of the question. After the debate reporters were demanding answers, and still she would just not answer the question. After the debate, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates.*
Results
| County | Jan Brewer | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Terry Goddard | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Democratic | Barry Hess | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Libertarian | Larry Gist | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Green | Write-in | Margin | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| votes | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Apache | Cochise | Coconino | Gila | Graham | Greenlee | La Paz | Maricopa | Mohave | Navajo | Pima | Pinal | Santa Cruz | Yavapai | Yuma | Totals | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 7,002 | 33.89 | **12,839** | **62.14** | 514 | 2.48 | 294 | 1.4 | 10 | 0.04 | -5,837 | -28.25 | **20,659** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **24,974** | **62.32** | 13,954 | 34.82 | 742 | 1.85 | 398 | 0.99 | 2 | 0.00 | 11,020 | 27.50 | **40,070** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16,754 | 43.02 | **20,792** | **53.39** | 880 | 2.25 | 505 | 1.27 | 13 | 0.01 | -4,038 | -10.37 | **38,942** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **11,163** | **62.26** | 6,155 | 34.32 | 451 | 2.51 | 158 | 0.88 | 2 | 0.01 | 5,008 | 27.94 | **17,929** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **5,994** | **65.48** | 2,865 | 31.30 | 220 | 2.40 | 74 | 0.80 | 0 | 0.00 | 3,129 | 34.18 | **9,153** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **1,187** | **48.48** | 1,177 | 48.08 | 60 | 2.45 | 24 | 0.98 | 0 | 0.00 | 10 | 0.40 | **2,448** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **3,048** | **67.31** | 1,330 | 29.37 | 80 | 1.76 | 70 | 1.54 | 0 | 0.00 | 1,718 | 37.94 | **4,528** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **543,045** | **54.78** | 415,142 | 41.88 | 24,077 | 2.42 | 8,600 | 0.86 | 280 | 0.02 | 127,903 | 12.90 | **991,144** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **39,026** | **72.65** | 12,777 | 23.78 | 1,307 | 2.43 | 601 | 1.11 | 4 | 0.00 | 26,249 | 48.87 | **53,715** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **16,157** | **54.49** | 12,517 | 42.22 | 648 | 2.18 | 317 | 1.06 | 7 | 0.02 | 3,640 | 12.27 | **29,646** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 148,916 | 47.18 | **158,337** | **50.17** | 648 | 0.20 | 317 | 0.10 | 16 | 0.00 | -9,421 | -2.99 | **315,589** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **45,807** | **58.28** | 30,109 | 38.31 | 1922 | 2.44 | 735 | 0.93 | 18 | 0.02 | 15,698 | 19.97 | **78,591** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3,190 | 31.76 | **6,608** | **65.81** | 138 | 1.37 | 105 | 1.04 | 0 | 0.00 | -3,418 | -34.05 | **10,041** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **53,081** | **65.21** | 25,569 | 31.41 | 1,830 | 2.24 | 900 | 1.10 | 8 | 0.00 | 27,512 | 33.80 | **81,388** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **19,590** | **57.22** | 13,764 | 40.20 | 500 | 1.46 | 380 | 1.10 | 2 | 0.00 | 5,826 | 17.02 | **34,236** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **938,934** | **54.33** | 733,935 | 42.43 | 38,722 | 2.24 | 16,128 | 0.93 | 362 | 0.02 | **204,999** | **11.90** | **1,728,081** |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Cochise (Largest city: Seirra Vista)
- Gila (Largest city: Payson)
- Graham (Largest city: Safford)
- Greenlee (Largest city: Clifton)
- La Paz (Largest city: Parker)
- Maricopa (Largest city: Phoenix)
- Mohave (Largest city: Lake Havasu City)
- Navajo (Largest city: Show Low)
- Pinal (Largest city: San Tan Valley)
- Yavapai (Largest city: Prescott Valley)
- Yuma (Largest city: Yuma)
References
References
- "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State".
- (January 20, 2009). "Governor: Napolitano resigns". The Arizona Guardian.
- Davenport, Paul. (November 5, 2009). "Brewer running for full term as Ariz. governor". [[The Arizona Republic]].
- (2010-08-17). "Terry Goddard for Governor – Arizona". Terrygoddard.org.
- (August 3, 2010). "Arizona Candidates List". Arizona SOS.
- Jessica Taylor. "Martin drops challenge to Brewer". Politico.Com.
- Jessica Taylor. "Mills drops campaign against Brewer". Politico.Com.
- Hensley, JJ. (May 3, 2010). "Joe Arpaio won't run for Arizona governor". [[The Arizona Republic]].
- "Arizona Capitol Times " Blog Archive " Munger drops out of governor's race". Azcapitoltimes.com.
- (October 11, 2009). "Political Insider: Symington won't run in '10". [[The Arizona Republic]].
- [https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_gop_primary_for_governor_june_16_2010/ Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_2010_arizona_republican_primary_for_governor_may_17_2010/ Rasmussen Reports] {{Dead link. (April 2019)
- [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_430.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- [https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_republican_primary_for_governor Rasmussen Reports]
- [https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_2010_arizona_gop_primary_for_governor_s_race_january_20_2010/ Rasmussen Reports]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20091125123305/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor_gop_primary Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_925.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- (August 24, 2010). "Arizona Gubernatorial Primary Results". Arizona SOS.
- "2010 Governors Race Ratings". [[Cook Political Report]].
- "Governor Ratings". [[Rothenberg Political Report]].
- "2010 Governor Races". [[RealClearPolitics]].
- "The Crystal Ball's Final Calls". [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]].
- "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". [[CQ Politics]].
- [https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/23/AZ/18/i8kAz/ Public Policy Polling]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20101123020320/http://www.brcpolls.com/10/RMP%202010-IV-01.pdf BRC Polls]
- [https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_governor_september_7_2010 Rasmussen Reports]
- [https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_governor_august_25_2010/ Rasmussen Reports]
- [https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_governor_july_21_2010/ Rasmussen Reports]
- [https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_2010_arizona_governor_june_29_2010/ Rasmussen Reports]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20100525123801/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_governor_may_17_2010 Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_427.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20091001170118/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor_election Rasmussen Reports]
- [https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_2010_arizona_governor_race_september_27_2009/ Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_923330.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- "Arizona governor stumbles during debate".
- "Category: DC".
- Services, Howard Fischer Capitol Media. "Brewer: No more debates – period".
- "Archived copy".
- "Archived copy".
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