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2012 United States Senate election in Arizona

none

Field	Value
election_name	2012 United States Senate election in Arizona
country	Arizona
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2006 United States Senate election in Arizona
previous_year	2006
next_election	2018 United States Senate election in Arizona
next_year	2018
turnout	52.9% (voting eligible)
election_date	November 6, 2012
image_size	x150px
image1	File:Jeff Flake, official portrait, 112th Congress 2 (cropped).jpg
nominee1	Jeff Flake
party1	Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1	1,104,457
percentage1	49.23%
image2	File:Richard Carmona (cropped 2).jpg
nominee2	Richard Carmona
party2	Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2	1,036,542
percentage2	46.20%
map_image
map_caption	Flake:
Carmona:
Tie:
title	U.S. Senator
before_election	Jon Kyl
before_party	Republican Party (United States)
after_election	Jeff Flake
after_party	Republican Party (United States)

Carmona:
Tie:
The 2012 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Senator Jon Kyl, a Republican and the Senate Minority Whip, decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. U.S. Representative Jeff Flake won the open seat.

As of 2026, this was the last time that a Republican won Arizona's Class 1 Senate seat.

Republican primary

The filing deadline for Republican candidates was June 1, 2012, and the primary election took place on August 28, 2012.

Candidates

Declared

Wil Cardon, CEO of a real estate investment firm
Jeff Flake, U.S. Representative from the 6th district
Bryan Hackbarth, former mayor of Youngtown
Clair Van Steenwyk, conservative radio host

Withdrew

Doug McKee, businessman

Declined

Fife Symington III, former Arizona governor
Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County sheriff (running for re-election as Sheriff)
Jan Brewer, Arizona governor
Trent Franks, U.S. representative
J. D. Hayworth, former U.S. representative
Jon Kyl, incumbent U.S. senator
Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska (2006–2009) and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008
Ben Quayle, U.S. representative
David Schweikert, U.S. representative
John Shadegg, former U.S. representative

Endorsements

Former Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK)
Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA)
Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) & Senate Conservatives Fund
Senator Mike Lee (R-UT)
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)
Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA)
Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX)
Arizona Association of Realtors
Arizona Farm Bureau
Arizona Home Builders
Arizona Right to Life
Arizona Sportsmen for Wildlife
Citizens Against Government Waste
Club for Growth
FreedomWorks
GING PAC
GOProud
NRA Political Victory Fund
National Taxpayers Union
Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator (R-PA)
Congressman Trent Franks (R-AZ)
State Senator Don Shooter (R-AZ)
State Senator Steve Smith (R-AZ)
State Senator Al Melvin (R-AZ)
State Senator Judy Burges (R-AZ)
State Representative Steve Montenegro (R-AZ)
State Representative John Fillmore (R-AZ)
Mayor Scott Smith of Mesa
Mayor Elaine Scruggs of Glendale
Americans for Legal Immigration

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Wil
Cardon	Jeff
Flake	Bryan
Hackbarth	Doug
McKee	Clair
Van Steenwyk	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 17–20, 2012	421	± 4.8%	20%	42%	3%	1%	2%	—	33%
Public Policy Polling	February 17–19, 2012	412	± 4.8%	7%	56%	5%	1%	1%	—	31%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	400	± 4.9%	7%	53%	5%	1%	2%	—	33%
Magellan Strategies	November 14–15, 2011	722	± 3.6%	4%	52%	1%	1%	2%	8%	32%

Results

Results by county:

]]

Democratic primary

Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona was the only candidate for the Democratic nomination, receiving all 289,881 votes cast in the primary election.

Candidates

Declared

Richard Carmona, former Surgeon General of the United States

Withdrew

Don Bivens, former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party
David Ruben, physician{{cite web|last=Sanders |first=Rebekah |url=https://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/2012/05/21/20120521jeff-flake-signatures-primary.html

Declined

Dennis Burke, United States Attorney
Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix
Ed Pastor, U.S. Representative
Warren Stewart, civil rights leader
Gabby Giffords, former U.S. Representative
Mark Kelly, astronaut and husband of Gabrielle Giffords, (later elected to Arizona's Class 3 Senate seat in 2020).
Janet Napolitano, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security and former Arizona governor
Jim Pederson, former Arizona Democratic Party chairman and 2006 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Dennis
Burke	Rodney
Glassman	Terry
Goddard	Phil
Gordan	Harry
Mitchell	Ed
Pastor	Felecia
Rotellini	Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	300	± 5.7%	2%	5%	50%	8%	11%	5%	6%	14%

Results

General election

Candidates

Jeff Flake (Republican), U.S. Representative
Richard Carmona (Democratic), former U.S. Surgeon General
Michael F. Meyer (independent)
Marc J. Victor (Libertarian), attorney

Debates

There were three debates before the election. The first was in Phoenix on October 10, 2012, the second in Tucson on October 15 and the last was in Yuma on October 25. External links

Complete video of debate, October 10, 2012 – C-SPAN
Complete video of debate, October 15, 2012 – C-SPAN
Complete video of debate, October 25, 2012 – C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
	Jeff Flake (R)	$9,026,951	$9,557,420	$97,360	$0
	Richard Carmona (D)	$6,459,739	$6,373,544	$86,195	$0
	Marc J. Victor (L)	$8,336	$8,334	$0	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Richard Carmona	Contribution	Jeff Flake	Contribution
University of Arizona	$54,100	Club for Growth	$1,000,112
League of Conservation Voters	$53,148	Senate Conservatives Fund	$176,484
Canyon Ranch	$31,400	US Airways	$54,300
Clorox Company	$25,000	Freeport-McMoRan	$53,750
Arizona State University	$22,600	Cancer Treatment Centers of America	$40,500
Banner Health	$18,500	Knight Transportation	$35,500
Lewis and Roca	$17,100	Pinnacle West Capital	$35,500
Taser International	$15,500	Marriott International	$29,750
Coca-Cola Co	$15,286	Shamrock Farms	$24,750
Pederson Group	$15,000	Services Group of America	$15,650
Source: OpenSecrets

Top industries

Richard Carmona	Contribution	Jeff Flake	Contribution	Ian Gilyeat	Contribution
Retired	$653,066	Republican/Conservative	$1,146,046	Retired	$250
Lawyers/Law Firms	$409,395	Retired	$643,260	Lawyers/Law Firms	$250
Health Professionals	$313,135	Leadership PACs	$502,352
Leadership PACs	$279,530	Real Estate	$302,572
Colleges/Universities	$189,270	Financial Institutions	$279,670
Real Estate	$145,000	Lawyers/Law Firms	$200,702
Business Services	$122,749	Misc Finance	$188,122
Financial Institutions	$118,500	Mining	$170,602
Democratic/Liberal	$111,889	Health Professionals	$164,607
Lobbyists	$105,172	Oil & Gas	$147,860
Source: OpenSecrets

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report		November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball		November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report		November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics		November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jeff
Flake (R)	Richard
Carmona (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 2–3, 2012	1,080	± 3%		51%	46%	—	3%
Rasmussen Reports	October 21, 2012	500	± 4.5%		50%	44%	3%	3%
Rocky Mountain Poll	October 4–10, 2012	523	± 4.4%	40%		44%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling	October 1–3, 2012	595	± 4%	43%		45%	—	12%
HighGround/Moore	September 25–26, 2012	500	± 4%		43%	40%	5%	11%
Rasmussen Reports	September 25, 2012	500	± 4.5%		47%	41%	3%	9%
LCV/Public Policy Polling	September 7–9, 2012	993	± n/a%		44%	43%	—	13%
LCV/Public Policy Polling	July 23–25, 2012	833	± 3.4%	38%	38%	—	25%
Rasmussen Reports	June 26, 2012	500	± 4.5%		47%	31%	5%	17%
Public Policy Polling	June 4–5, 2012	791	± 3.5%		43%	41%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling	May 17–20, 2012	500	± 4.4%		48%	35%	—	17%
Magellan Strategies	April 30 – May 2, 2012	909	± 3.3%		44%	40%	—	16%
Rasmussen Reports	March 13, 2012	500	± 4.5%		47%	34%	4%	16%
NBC News/Marist	February 19–20, 2012	2,487	± 2.0%		42%	29%	—	28%
Public Policy Polling	February 17–19, 2012	743	± 3.6%		46%	35%	—	19%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%		40%	36%	—	24%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Wil
Cardon (R)	Richard
Carmona (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	35%	33%	—	32%
Public Policy Polling	February 17–19, 2012	743	± 3.6%	37%	33%	—	30%
Rasmussen Reports	March 13, 2012	500	± 4.5%	39%	38%	3%	20%
Magellan Strategies	April 30 – May 2, 2012	909	± 3.3%	41%	40%	—	19%
Public Policy Polling	May 17–20, 2012	500	± 4.4%	40%	37%	—	23%

Republican primary

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jeff
Flake	J.D.
Hayworth	Sarah
Palin	Gary
Pierce	Marilyn
Quayle	Fife
Symington	Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	400	± 4.9%	33%	11%	35%	3%	2%	3%	13%

Democratic primary

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Dennis
Burke	Gabrielle
Giffords	Rodney
Glassman	Terry
Goddard	Phil
Gordan	Harry
Mitchell	Ed
Pastor	Felecia
Rotellini	Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	300	± 5.7%	2%	46%	4%	28%	2%	5%	4%	2%	6%

with Don Bivens

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Wil
Cardon (R)	Don
Bivens (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	35%	27%	—		37%
Public Policy Polling	February 17–19, 2012	743	± 3.6%	38%	32%	—	31%
Rasmussen Reports	March 13, 2012	500	± 4.5%	42%	30%	4%	24%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jeff
Flake (R)	Don
Bivens (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	42%	32%	—	26%
Public Policy Polling	February 17–19, 2012	743	± 3.6%	46%	35%	—	19%
Rasmussen Reports	March 13, 2012	500	± 4.5%	47%	30%	3%	20%

with J.D. Hayworth

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	J.D.
Hayworth (R)	Gabrielle
Giffords (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	623	± 3.9%	31%	57%	12%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	J.D.
Hayworth (R)	Terry
Goddard (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	623	± 3.9%	33%	51%	16%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	J.D.
Hayworth (R)	Phil
Gordon (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	623	± 3.9%	36%	44%	20%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	J.D.
Hayworth (R)	Ed
Pastor (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	623	± 3.9%	37%	42%	21%

with Jeff Flake

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jeff
Flake (R)	Gabrielle
Giffords (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	623	± 3.9%	41%	48%	11%

with Jon Kyl

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jon
Kyl (R)	Terry
Goddard (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2011	599	± 4.0%	50%	40%	9%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jon
Kyl (R)	Phil
Gordon (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2011	599	± 4.0%	54%	33%	13%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jon
Kyl (R)	Ann
Kirkpatrick (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2011	599	± 4.0%	51%	35%	14%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jon
Kyl (R)	Janet
Napolitano (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2011	599	± 4.0%	53%	41%	6%

with Sarah Palin

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Sarah
Palin (R)	Gabrielle
Giffords (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	623	± 3.9%	36%	54%	10%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Sarah
Palin (R)	Terry
Goddard (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	623	± 3.9%	40%	49%	11%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Sarah
Palin (R)	Phil
Gordon (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	623	± 3.9%	41%	45%	13%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Sarah
Palin (R)	Ed
Pastor (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	623	± 3.9%	43%	45%	12%

Results

County	Richard Carmona
Democratic	Jeff Flake
Republican	Others	#	%	#	%	#	%	Apache	Cochise	Coconino	Gila	Graham	Greenlee	La Paz	Maricopa	Mohave	Navajo	Pima	Pinal	Santa Cruz	Yavapai	Yuma	Totals
	16,455		65.1%		7,680		30.4%	1,128	4.4%
	19,736		40.9%		26,208		54.3%	2,344	4.9%
	28,723		56.6%		19,334		38.1%	2,650	5.2%
	8,099		38.2%		11,954		56.4%	1,154	5.5%
	3,771		32.2%		7,352		62.8%	585	5.0%
	1,342		46.1%		1,365		46.9%	205	7.0%
	1,961		35.6%		3,120		56.6%	431	7.8%
	602,809		44.9%		675,500		50.3%	64,109	4.8%
	20,865		30.6%		42,410		62.2%	4,924	7.2%
	16,881		45.9%		18,228		49.6%	1,670	4.5%
	207,578		55.5%		153,846		41.1%	12,631	3.4%
	45,558		42.8%		55,008		51.6%	5,996	5.6%
	9,454		69.9%		3,617		26.7%	452	3.3%
	34,902		35.6%		57,838		59.0%	5,211	5.3%
	18,408		45.4%		20,997		51.8%	1,120	4.6%
1,036,542	46.2%	1,104,457	49.2%	104,610	4.6%

By congressional district

Despite losing, Carmona carried five of nine congressional districts.

District	Carmona	Flake	Representative
49.11%	46.32%		Ann Kirkpatrick
51.52%	45.03%		Ron Barber
63.08%	32.79%		Raúl Grijalva
33.36%	60.94%		Paul Gosar
		35.52%	60.06%	Matt Salmon
40.32%	55.35%		David Schweikert
71.87%	23.14%		Ed Pastor
38.9%	56.29%		Trent Franks
51.77%	43.39%		Kyrsten Sinema

References

Dr. Michael McDonald. (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". [[George Mason University]].
(February 10, 2011). "Sen. Jon Kyl announces his retirement from Senate". [[Politico (newspaper).
Catanese, David. (August 5, 2011). "Self funder to primary Jeff Flake". [[Politico (newspaper).
Trygstad, Kyle. (August 8, 2011). "Flake Draws Wealthy GOP Primary Opponent". [[Roll Call]].
(February 14, 2011). "Jeff Flake announces he'll run for Kyl seat".
"Paid for by Bryan Hackbarth for United States Senate".
Nowicki, Dan. (October 16, 2011). "Senate hopefuls' fundraising revealed for 3rd quarter". [[The Arizona Republic]].
(June 3, 2011). "Local man launches U.S. Senate campaign". [[Mohave Valley Daily News]]}}{{Dead link.
Burns, Alexander. (February 10, 2011). "Fife eyes Senate, floats NFL star Kurt Warner". [[Politico (newspaper).
(January 6, 2012). "Battling DOJ, Arpaio to run again".
Sullivan, Sean. (February 11, 2011). "Brewer Won't Run for Kyl's Seat". [[National Journal]].
Sullivan, Sean. (April 1, 2011). "Franks not running for Senate in Arizona". [[National Journal]].
King, James. (April 28, 2011). "Rumor Mill: J.D. Hayworth Will NOT Run For Senate -- Again". Phoenix New Times.
staff, CBS Interactive. (2011-06-06). "Palin denies new Ariz. home is for Senate run - CBS News".
Drucker, David M.. (February 12, 2011). "Early, Long Whip Race Will Test GOP Cohesion". [[Roll Call]].
Bedard, Paul. (February 11, 2011). "Ben Quayle Staying Put in House". [[U.S. News & World Report]].
(February 13, 2011). "With Kyl leaving, we at least know some who won't be seeking his seat". [[Arizona Daily Star]].
Sunnucks, Mike. (February 11, 2011). "Shadegg won't run for Kyl's Senate seat, Trent Franks looking at run". [[Phoenix Business Journal]].
(April 30, 2012). "Arizona: Jim DeMint Endorses Jeff Flake in Senate Primary".
(October 25, 2012). "GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements – GOProud, Inc.".
(September 27, 2012). "NRA-PVF Endorses Jeff Flake for U.S. Senate in Arizona". NRA-PVF.
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_052212.pdf Public Policy Polling]
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[http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/AZ-2012-US-Senate-Republican-Primary-Election-Survey-Topline-Results-111611.pdf Magellan Strategies] {{Dead link. (April 2019)
"Official Election Canvass of Results". Arizona Secretary of State.
"Archived copy".
Sullivan, Sean. (November 10, 2011). "Carmona Will Run in Arizona". [[National Journal]].
(March 28, 2012). "Arizona: Bivens Drops Out, Democratic Field Clears".
McCombs, Brady. (June 9, 2012). "Democrat Ruben ends US Senate campaign". [[Arizona Daily Star]].
Haque, Fahima. (February 11, 2011). "Arizona U.S. Attorney for Senate?". [[Main Justice]].
Cillizza, Chris. (February 10, 2011). "Gabrielle Giffords was planning possible Senate run before shooting". [[WashingtonPost.com]].
Sunnucks, Mike. (February 10, 2011). "Phoenix mayor ponders a run for Kyl's seat; Luis Gonzalez not interested". [[Phoenix Business Journal]].
Miller, Sean J.. (March 2, 2011). "Arizona Democrat considering Senate run in absence of Rep. Giffords". [[The Hill (newspaper).
Nowicki, Dan. (November 20, 2011). "Arizona civil-rights leader weighs Senate run". [[The Arizona Republic]].
link. (January 31, 2012)
(July 2011). "Mark Kelly: I'm not running for office – Jennifer Epstein". Politico.Com.
King, James. (February 18, 2011). "Janet Napolitano No-Go on Senate Run; Wants to Focus on Border Security". [[Phoenix New Times]].
Nowicki, Dan. (February 16, 2011). "Pederson won't run for Kyl's Senate seat". [[The Arizona Republic]].
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0509.pdf Public Policy Polling]
(May 2019). "Carmona Campaign Finances".
(May 2019). "Flake Campaign Finances".
"Kansas District 04 2012 Race". [[OpenSecrets]].
(May 2019). "Victor Campaign Finances".
(May 2019). "Meyer Campaign Finances".
"Top Contributors 2012 Race: Arizona Senate". [[OpenSecrets]].
"Top Industries 2012 Race: Arizona Senate". [[OpenSecrets]].
"2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".
"2012 Senate".
"2012 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
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[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/arizona/election_2012_arizona_senate Rasmussen Reports]
[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/BRC_AZ_0425.pdf Rocky Mountain Poll]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1003.pdf Public Policy Polling]
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[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/arizona/arizona_senate_flake_r_47_carmona_d_41 Rasmussen Reports]
[https://images.politico.com/global/2012/09/arizonaresultsivr2.html LCV/Public Policy Polling]
[https://web.archive.org/web/20120803014745/http://www.lcv.org/elections/research/arizona-senate-poll.pdf LCV/Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/arizona/arizona_senate_flake_r_47_carmona_d_31 Rasmussen Reports]
{{usurped
[https://web.archive.org/web/20120514071248/http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Magellan-Arizona-General-Election-Survey-Release-050312.pdf Magellan Strategies]
[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/arizona/arizona_senate_top_gop_candidates_lead_democratic_challengers Rasmussen Reports]
[http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/AZpolls/AZ120219/Republican%20Primary%202012/Complete%20February%2022nd%202012%20Arizona%20NBC%20News-Marist%20Poll%20Tables.pdf NBC News/Marist]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_0221.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1123424.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[https://web.archive.org/web/20120828101301/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0504819.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[https://web.archive.org/web/20120831230958/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0201925.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2012/General/Canvass2012GE.pdf 2012 Election. State of Arizona. Official Canvass]
"Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".

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