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2004 United States presidential election in Iowa

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2004 United States presidential election in Iowa

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FieldValue
election_name2004 United States presidential election in Iowa
countryIowa
flag_imageFlag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2000 United States presidential election in Iowa
previous_year2000
next_election2008 United States presidential election in Iowa
next_year2008
election_dateNovember 2, 2004
image_sizex200px
image1George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
nominee1**George W. Bush**
party1Republican Party (United States)
home_state1Texas
running_mate1**Dick Cheney**
electoral_vote1**7**
popular_vote1**751,957**
percentage1**49.90%**
image2John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg
nominee2John Kerry
party2Democratic Party (United States)
home_state2Massachusetts
running_mate2John Edwards
electoral_vote20
popular_vote2741,898
percentage249.23%
map_image{{Switcher
titlePresident
before_electionGeorge W. Bush
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionGeorge W. Bush
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

| [[File:Iowa Presidential Election Results 2004.svg|280px]] | County results |[[File:2004 United States presidential election in Iowa by congressional district.svg|280px]] | Congressional district results Bush Kerry The 2004 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Voters chose seven electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President George W. Bush and his running mate, Vice President Dick Cheney, against Democratic challenger and Senator from Massachusetts John F. Kerry and his running mate, Senator from North Carolina John Edwards. Six third parties were also on the ballot.

Iowa was won by President George W. Bush by a 0.67% margin of victory, or 10,059 votes, despite losing the state to Al Gore four years earlier. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a swing state. The Democrats had won Iowa in the previous four presidential elections, though only narrowly in 2000, when Gore had won the state by only 0.32 percentage points, or 4,144 votes, a much weaker margin compared to the prior three elections. In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis won the state by 10.21% even in an otherwise Republican landslide year, and Bill Clinton carried the state by 6.02% in 1992 and 10.34% in 1996. Iowa was one of just two states, along with New Mexico, to vote for Gore in 2000 but flip to Bush in 2004, although it was won both times by narrow margins. Iowa was one of two states to be won by George W. Bush in at least one of his presidential runs that his father George H. W. Bush never carried, the other being West Virginia.

Bush became the first Republican to win Iowa since Ronald Reagan had done so in 1984. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time a Republican won Iowa by only a plurality. Until 2020, this was the last time Iowa did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Wisconsin. This election marked a new streak of Iowa voting for the winning ticket in every election along with Florida and Ohio until 2020, when all three voted for the losing candidate. With Iowa, Florida, and Ohio's winning streaks no longer being intact, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are now all tied for the longest streaks of siding with the winner, all three of which most recently failing to do so when they backed Kerry during his losing presidential bid in 2004.

Bush is also the only US president to win the White House without Iowa and then carry it upon winning re-election. This is the opposite of Woodrow Wilson and FDR, the only two presidents to have carried Iowa upon winning office but lost it upon winning re-election.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

SourceRanking
D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Polls showed the state was a pure tossup with neither candidate reaching a consistent lead. The last three polls averaged both candidates at 48%, with the last-second deciders the key to victory. The final RealClearPolitics average gave Bush leading with a margin of 0.3%, with 47.4% to Kerry at 47.1% and Nader at 1.0%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $671,335. Kerry raised $449,980.

Advertising and visits

The Kerry campaign visited the state 11 times to Bush's 10 times. Both campaigns spent between $400,000 to $600,000 each week in television advertising.

Analysis

Kerry's strength in the state lay in the highly populated counties of Polk (Des Moines), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Scott (Davenport), Johnson (Iowa City), and Black Hawk (Waterloo). Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa, gave Kerry 64.01% of its vote, Kerry's best performance in the state. However, Kerry also did well in a series of rural and small-town counties in northeastern Iowa and along the Mississippi River, many of which had been traditionally Democratic since at least the 1980s. He won eight of the ten counties along the Mississippi River, including Dubuque County, which had given Gore his margin in the state in 2000. The 1st and 2nd congressional districts were both carried by Kerry, despite being represented by Republicans in Congress. Dubuque is located within the 1st district while the 2nd district contains Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, and Muscatine.

However, Bush performed respectably even in areas of Democratic strength; in only two counties did he obtain less than 40% of the vote. Additionally, he was able to offset Kerry's strength in the population centers and in the northeast and Mississippi River counties with landslide margins in a series of rural counties in the west of the state, as well as by dominating the state's south. Bush's best performance in the state was in Sioux County, where he won with 85.87% of the vote. His raw vote margin in Sioux County of 11,970 votes alone was greater than his raw vote margin over Kerry statewide. Bush won three congressional districts in the state: the 3rd district, home to the Democratic city of Des Moines and its Republican suburbs, gave Bush a razor thin 50–50 margin, despite re-electing Democrat Leonard Boswell to Congress. The 4th district also gave Bush a narrow margin, giving him 51% of the vote. The now obsolete 5th district in the western part of the state was home to Iowa's most Republican areas, having elected Steve King to Congress in 2002; it gave Bush a landslide 21-point margin.

In terms of counties carried, both candidates flipped counties. Bush flipped four that voted for Gore in 2000, while Kerry flipped five that voted for Bush in 2000. This election coincided with the 2004 United States Senate election in Iowa, where Republican Chuck Grassley was effortlessly re-elected with 70.83% of the vote.

Iowa would return to the Democratic column in the next two elections, voting for Barack Obama by 9.54% in 2008 and 5.81% in 2012. However, it would return to the Republican column since then when Donald Trump won the state by 9.41% in 2016 and 8.30% in 2020. In 2024, Trump won the state by 13.21%, the largest margin of victory for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since Ronald Reagan's in 1980.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in IowaPartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
**Republican****George W. Bush** **(incumbent)****Richard Cheney** **(incumbent)****751,957****49.90%****7**
DemocraticJohn KerryJohn Edwards741,89849.23%0
IndependentRalph NaderPeter Camejo5,9730.40%0
LibertarianMichael BadnarikRichard Campagna2,9920.20%0
ConstitutionMichael PeroutkaChuck Baldwin1,3040.09%0
GreenDavid CobbPat LaMarche1,1410.08%0
*N/A*Write-ins–1,0940.07%0
Socialist WorkersJames HarrisMargaret Trowe3730.02%0
Socialist EqualityBill Van AukenJim Lawrence1760.01%0
**Totals****1,506,908****100%****7**
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered)67%/76%

By county

CountyGeorge W. Bush
RepublicanJohn Kerry
DemocraticVarious candidates
Other partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Totals751,95749.90%741,89849.23%13,0530.87%10,0590.67%1,506,908
Adair2,40256.15%1,84443.10%320.75%55813.05%4,278
Adams1,31756.65%97742.02%311.33%34014.63%2,325
Allamakee3,53049.99%3,44948.84%831.18%811.15%7,062
Appanoose3,34051.78%3,06347.49%470.73%2774.29%6,450
Audubon1,95854.51%1,60844.77%260.73%3509.74%3,592
Benton6,65849.31%6,74749.97%960.72%-89-0.66%13,501
Black Hawk28,04643.89%35,39255.38%4690.73%-7,346-11.49%63,907
Boone6,87049.04%7,02750.16%1120.80%-157-1.12%14,009
Bremer6,66552.16%6,02547.15%890.70%6405.01%12,779
Buchanan4,79745.79%5,60853.54%700.67%-811-7.75%10,475
Buena Vista4,88757.56%3,52041.46%830.98%1,36716.10%8,490
Butler4,41759.09%3,00140.15%570.76%1,41618.94%7,475
Calhoun3,25558.73%2,24340.47%440.80%1,01218.26%5,542
Carroll5,76254.75%4,68944.56%730.69%1,07310.19%10,524
Cass4,79663.58%2,67935.52%680.90%2,11728.06%7,543
Cedar4,86950.23%4,74748.97%780.80%1221.26%9,694
Cerro Gordo10,96044.71%13,37254.54%1840.75%-2,412-9.83%24,516
Cherokee3,75855.30%2,98843.97%500.73%77011.33%6,796
Chickasaw3,04044.67%3,70854.48%580.86%-668-9.81%6,806
Clarke2,20048.18%2,32350.88%430.94%-123-2.70%4,566
Clay4,89857.03%3,54741.30%1431.67%1,35115.73%8,588
Clayton4,31247.03%4,73651.66%1201.31%-424-4.63%9,168
Clinton10,66643.21%13,81355.96%2050.83%-3,147-12.75%24,684
Crawford3,95554.61%3,22044.46%670.92%73510.15%7,242
Dallas15,18357.75%10,91741.52%1930.74%4,26616.23%26,293
Davis2,14854.82%1,73144.18%391.00%41710.64%3,918
Decatur2,08852.06%1,85946.35%641.59%2295.71%4,011
Delaware4,90853.35%4,22745.95%650.71%6817.40%9,200
Des Moines8,22139.38%12,45659.67%1970.94%-4,235-20.29%20,874
Dickinson5,33755.87%4,14043.34%760.80%1,19712.53%9,553
Dubuque20,10042.73%26,56156.46%3820.81%-6,461-13.73%47,043
Emmet2,69752.31%2,40546.64%541.04%2925.67%5,156
Fayette5,12849.35%5,18549.89%790.76%-57-0.54%10,392
Floyd3,74545.86%4,34953.25%730.89%-604-7.39%8,167
Franklin3,12856.66%2,34042.38%530.96%78814.28%5,521
Fremont2,36260.39%1,51038.61%391.00%85221.78%3,911
Greene2,61851.20%2,45948.09%360.70%1593.11%5,113
Grundy4,42964.67%2,38634.84%340.50%2,04329.83%6,849
Guthrie3,32555.47%2,61443.61%550.92%71111.86%5,994
Hamilton4,36752.39%3,89546.73%730.88%4725.66%8,335
Hancock3,36857.04%2,48442.07%530.89%88414.97%5,905
Hardin4,87554.48%4,01544.87%590.66%8609.61%8,949
Harrison4,68060.94%2,90637.84%941.23%1,77423.10%7,680
Henry5,22055.20%4,12743.64%1101.16%1,09311.56%9,457
Howard2,02843.18%2,61455.65%551.17%-586-12.47%4,697
Humboldt3,16259.10%2,14640.11%420.79%1,01618.99%5,350
Ida2,34262.06%1,41537.49%170.45%92724.57%3,774
Iowa4,54453.75%3,84145.43%690.82%7038.32%8,454
Jackson4,24242.37%5,65656.50%1131.13%-1,414-14.13%10,011
Jasper9,46247.16%10,43051.99%1700.84%-968-4.83%20,062
Jefferson3,64844.05%4,49054.22%1431.73%-842-10.17%8,281
Johnson22,71534.75%41,84764.01%8111.24%-19,132-29.26%65,373
Jones4,83448.45%5,05450.65%900.90%-220-2.20%9,978
Keokuk3,11956.92%2,29441.86%671.22%82515.06%5,480
Kossuth5,04254.46%4,13244.63%840.91%9109.83%9,258
Lee7,47241.84%10,15256.85%2341.32%-2,680-15.01%17,858
Linn49,44244.65%60,44254.58%8560.77%-11,000-9.93%110,740
Louisa2,57252.32%2,29746.72%470.96%2755.60%4,916
Lucas2,54355.63%1,98743.47%410.90%55612.16%4,571
Lyon4,75177.87%1,30321.36%470.77%3,44856.51%6,101
Madison4,53856.70%3,38042.23%861.07%1,15814.47%8,004
Mahaska6,85863.93%3,79035.33%800.74%3,06828.60%10,728
Marion9,99059.83%6,57439.37%1320.79%3,41620.46%16,696
Marshall9,55749.87%9,44349.27%1640.85%1140.60%19,164
Mills4,55665.65%2,30833.26%761.10%2,24832.39%6,940
Mitchell2,64648.28%2,78550.82%490.90%-139-2.54%5,480
Monona2,57551.32%2,39747.77%460.92%1783.55%5,018
Monroe2,06752.16%1,85546.81%411.03%2125.35%3,963
Montgomery3,60164.81%1,89934.18%561.01%1,70230.63%5,556
Muscatine9,02048.19%9,54250.98%1550.83%-522-2.79%18,717
O'Brien5,32868.92%2,33030.14%730.95%2,99838.78%7,731
Osceola2,29570.27%93428.60%371.14%1,36141.67%3,266
Page5,24369.79%2,21129.43%590.78%3,03240.36%7,513
Palo Alto2,67451.51%2,48247.81%350.68%1923.70%5,191
Plymouth7,81063.90%4,27835.00%1341.09%3,53228.90%12,222
Pocahontas2,44156.60%1,82242.24%501.16%61914.36%4,313
Polk95,82847.29%105,21851.93%1,5720.77%-9,390-4.64%202,618
Pottawattamie24,55858.72%16,90640.43%3560.85%7,65218.29%41,820
Poweshiek4,96549.20%5,04349.98%830.83%-78-0.78%10,091
Ringgold1,46652.77%1,28646.29%260.93%1806.48%2,778
Sac3,12858.21%2,21541.22%310.57%91316.99%5,374
Scott39,95848.30%42,12250.92%6420.77%-2,164-2.62%82,722
Shelby4,25663.81%2,35535.31%590.88%1,90128.50%6,670
Sioux14,22985.87%2,25913.63%820.49%11,97072.24%16,570
Story20,81946.63%23,29652.17%5371.20%-2,477-5.54%44,652
Tama4,45649.51%4,48749.85%580.65%-31-0.34%9,001
Taylor1,90859.81%1,25239.25%300.93%65620.56%3,190
Union3,16552.94%2,74745.95%661.10%4186.99%5,978
Van Buren2,21157.64%1,56840.88%571.48%64316.76%3,836
Wapello7,40344.31%9,12554.62%1791.07%-1,722-10.31%16,707
Warren12,16052.75%10,73046.54%1630.70%1,4306.21%23,053
Washington5,97755.92%4,59542.99%1161.08%1,38212.93%10,688
Wayne1,73355.31%1,37944.02%210.67%35411.29%3,133
Webster8,95948.09%9,56151.32%1110.60%-602-3.23%18,631
Winnebago3,17553.34%2,70745.48%701.17%4687.86%5,952
Winneshiek5,32449.37%5,35449.65%1060.98%-30-0.28%10,784
Woodbury22,45150.80%21,45548.55%2890.66%9962.25%44,195
Worth1,79543.54%2,28655.45%421.01%-491-11.91%4,123
Wright3,63154.99%2,93044.37%420.63%70110.62%6,603
County Flips: {{col-begin}}

Democratic Republican ]]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Cedar (largest city: Tipton)
  • Greene (largest city: Jefferson)
  • Louisa (largest city: Wapello)
  • Winnebago (largest city: Forest City)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Fayette (largest city: Oelwein)
  • Jasper (largest city: Newton)
  • Jefferson (largest city: Fairfield)
  • Poweshiek (largest city: Grinnell)
  • Winneshiek (largest city: Decorah)

By congressional district

Bush won three of five congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat. Kerry won two held by Republicans.

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
46%**53%**Jim Nussle
44%**55%**Jim Leach
**49.7%**49.6%Leonard Boswell
**51%**48%Tom Latham
**60%**39%Steve King

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Iowa voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa has 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Iowa. All were pledged to and voted for Bush and Cheney.

  1. Julie Hosch
  2. Velma Huebner
  3. Don Racheter
  4. Marilyn Bose
  5. Don Kass
  6. Dorothy Schlitter
  7. Wanda Sears

Notes

References

References

  1. {{usurped
  2. "2004 Presidential Election Polls. Iowa Polls". US Election Atlas.
  3. "RealClear Politics - Polls".
  4. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  5. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  6. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. Lounsbury, Jud. (2016-12-16). "Pssst...Trump: You Won By Running to Clinton's Left".
  9. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  10. (2013). "Digital Boundary Definitions of United States Congressional Districts, 1789-2012".
  11. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  12. "2000 Presidential General Election Results - Iowa".
  13. "Iowa Election 2004 Results, News and Polls for the Senate race. View the latest election results, news and polls. Conservative election commentary".
  14. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  15. (May 20, 2019). "The Electoral College".
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