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2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

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Field	Value
election_name	2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
country	Wisconsin
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2000 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
previous_year	2000
turnout	72.9% ( 5.9%)
next_election	2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
next_year	2008
election_date	November 2, 2004
image_size	x200px
image1	John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg
nominee1	John Kerry
party1	Democratic Party (United States)
home_state1	Massachusetts
running_mate1	John Edwards
electoral_vote1	10
popular_vote1	1,489,504
percentage1	49.70%
image2	George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
nominee2	George W. Bush
party2	Republican Party (United States)
home_state2	Texas
running_mate2	Dick Cheney
electoral_vote2	0
popular_vote2	1,478,120
percentage2	49.32%
map_image	{{Switcher
map_caption
title	President
before_election	George W. Bush
before_party	Republican Party (United States)
after_election	George W. Bush
after_party	Republican Party (United States)

| [[File:Wisconsin Presidential Election Results 2004.svg|300px]] | County results | [[File:2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin by congressional district.svg|300px]] | Congressional district results | [[File:2004 Presidential Election in Wisconsin by Precinct.svg|300px]] | Precinct results Kerry Bush Tie/No Data The 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 0.38% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan in 1984, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucial swing state, and faced similar political scrutiny to neighboring Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. On election day, Kerry barely carried the state over President George W. Bush. The results in Wisconsin were nearly identical to the results from four years earlier, when Al Gore squeaked by Bush, and the 2020 presidential election when Joe Biden had a similarly narrow victory in Wisconsin against Donald Trump.

As of 2024, this is the most recent election to date in which Wisconsin would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Michigan and Pennsylvania for the longest bellwether streak in the nation. This was also only the third time since 1960 (after 2000 and 1988) that it would vote for the losing candidate. Bush is to date the only presidential candidate to win two terms in office without carrying Wisconsin at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Pre-election polling had Bush and Kerry winning polls, with neither candidate grasping a strong lead. The last 3 poll averages showed Bush leading 49% to 46%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,993,040. Kerry raised $1,130,602.

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 12 times. Kerry visited the state 14 times. A total of between $1.3 million to $3.6 million was spent each week.

Analysis

Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the last four elections before the fifth time in 2004. The urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison tend to vote strongly Democratic. The suburbs of those cities are politically diverse but tend to vote Republican. Counties in the western part of the state tend to be liberal, a tradition passed down from Scandinavian immigrants. The rural areas in the northern and eastern part of the state are the most solidly Republican areas in Wisconsin.

The CNN exit polls showed a dead heat between the two. However, the deciding factor for Kerry's victory was union members who voted for him with 62%, while non-members (83% of the population) voted for Bush with just 52% of the vote.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin	Party	Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Democratic	John Forbes Kerry	1,489,504	49.70%	10
Republican	George Walker Bush (Incumbent)	1,478,120	49.32%	0
Independent	Ralph Nader	16,390	0.55%	0
Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	6,464	0.22%	0
Green	David Cobb	2,661	0.09%	0
Independent	Walt Brown	471	0.02%	0
Independent	Roger Calero	411	0.01%	0
Write Ins	2,986	0.10%	0
Totals		2,997,007		100.00%	10
Voter turnout (Voting age population)		72.4%

By county

County	John Kerry
Democratic	George W. Bush
Republican	Various candidates
Other parties	Margin	Total votes cast	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Totals	1,489,504	49.70%	1,478,120	49.32%	29,383	0.98%	11,384	0.38%	2,997,007
	Adams		5,447		52.09%		4,890		46.77%		119		1.14%		557		5.32%		10,456
	Ashland		5,805		63.10%		3,313		36.01%		81		0.88%		2,492		27.09%		9,199
	Barron		11,696		48.86%		12,030		50.26%		211		0.89%		-334		-1.40%		23,937
	Bayfield		5,845		60.26%		3,754		38.71%		100		1.03%		2,091		21.55%		9,699
	Brown		54,935		44.56%		67,173		54.48%		1,186		0.96%		-12,238		-9.92%		123,294
	Buffalo		3,998		52.67%		3,502		46.13%		91		1.20%		496		6.54%		7,591
	Burnett		4,499		48.27%		4,743		50.89%		79		0.85%		-244		-2.62%		9,321
	Calumet		10,290		40.71%		14,721		58.24%		265		1.05%		-4,431		-17.53%		25,276
	Chippewa		14,751		48.33%		15,450		50.62%		323		1.06%		-699		-2.29%		30,524
	Clark		6,966		46.06%		7,966		52.67%		193		1.27%		-1,000		-6.61%		15,125
	Columbia		14,300		48.38%		14,956		50.60%		299		1.01%		-656		-2.22%		29,555
	Crawford		4,656		55.04%		3,680		43.50%		123		1.45%		976		11.54%		8,459
	Dane		181,052		66.02%		90,369		32.95%		2,828		1.03%		90,683		33.07%		274,249
	Dodge		16,690		37.64%		27,201		61.35%		445		1.01%		-10,511		-23.71%		44,336
	Door		8,367		47.84%		8,910		50.94%		214		1.22%		-543		-3.10%		17,491
	Douglas		16,537		65.66%		8,448		33.54%		202		0.81%		8,089		32.12%		25,187
	Dunn		12,039		51.95%		10,879		46.95%		254		1.09%		1,160		5.00%		23,172
	Eau Claire		30,068		54.24%		24,653		44.47%		716		1.30%		5,415		9.77%		55,437
	Florence		993		36.45%		1,703		62.52%		28		1.03%		-710		-26.07%		2,724
	Fond du Lac		19,216		36.23%		33,291		62.77%		529		1.00%		-14,075		-26.54%		53,036
	Forest		2,509		48.69%		2,608		50.61%		36		0.70%		-99		-1.92%		5,153
	Grant		12,864		50.92%		12,208		48.32%		192		0.76%		656		2.60%		25,264
	Green		9,575		52.47%		8,497		46.56%		176		0.96%		1,078		5.91%		18,248
	Green Lake		3,605		35.42%		6,472		63.59%		101		0.99%		-2,867		-28.17%		10,178
	Iowa		7,122		56.79%		5,348		42.64%		72		0.57%		1,774		14.15%		12,542
	Iron		1,956		50.43%		1,884		48.57%		39		1.00%		72		1.86%		3,879
	Jackson		5,249		53.97%		4,387		45.11%		90		0.92%		862		8.86%		9,726
	Jefferson		17,925		42.56%		23,776		56.45%		414		0.98%		-5,851		-13.89%		42,115
	Juneau		5,734		46.32%		6,473		52.29%		172		1.39%		-739		-5.97%		12,379
	Kenosha		40,107		52.48%		35,587		46.56%		734		0.96%		4,520		5.92%		76,428
	Kewaunee		5,175		45.91%		5,970		52.96%		128		1.13%		-795		-7.05%		11,273
	La Crosse		33,170		53.38%		28,289		45.53%		677		1.09%		4,881		7.85%		62,136
	Lafayette		4,402		52.48%		3,929		46.84%		57		0.68%		473		5.64%		8,388
	Langlade		4,751		42.90%		6,235		56.30%		88		0.80%		-1,484		-13.40%		11,074
	Lincoln		7,484		47.67%		8,024		51.11%		192		1.22%		-540		-3.44%		15,700
	Manitowoc		20,652		46.77%		23,027		52.14%		481		1.09%		-2,375		-5.37%		44,160
	Marathon		30,899		45.40%		36,394		53.47%		766		1.12%		-5,495		-8.07%		68,059
	Marinette		10,190		45.76%		11,866		53.28%		214		0.96%		-1,676		-7.52%		22,270
	Marquette		3,785		44.65%		4,604		54.31%		88		1.03%		-819		-9.66%		8,477
	Menominee		1,412		82.57%		288		16.84%		10		0.58%		1,124		65.73%		1,710
	Milwaukee		297,653		61.72%		180,287		37.39%		4,296		0.89%		117,366		24.33%		482,236
	Monroe		8,973		45.89%		10,375		53.06%		206		1.05%		-1,402		-7.17%		19,554
	Oconto		8,534		43.11%		11,043		55.79%		217		1.10%		-2,509		-12.68%		19,794
	Oneida		10,464		47.48%		11,351		51.50%		224		1.02%		-887		-4.02%		22,039
	Outagamie		40,169		44.61%		48,903		54.31%		978		1.09%		-8,734		-9.70%		90,050
	Ozaukee		17,714		33.40%		34,904		65.82%		414		0.78%		-17,190		-32.42%		53,032
	Pepin		2,181		53.64%		1,853		45.57%		32		0.79%		328		8.07%		4,066
	Pierce		11,176		51.09%		10,437		47.71%		263		1.21%		739		3.38%		21,876
	Polk		11,173		47.54%		12,095		51.46%		235		1.00%		-922		-3.92%		23,503
	Portage		21,861		56.11%		16,546		42.47%		554		1.43%		5,315		13.64%		38,961
	Price		4,349		49.63%		4,312		49.21%		102		1.17%		37		0.42%		8,763
	Racine		48,229		47.48%		52,456		51.65%		884		0.87%		-4,227		-4.17%		101,569
	Richland		4,501		47.78%		4,836		51.34%		83		0.88%		-335		-3.56%		9,420
	Rock		46,598		57.90%		33,151		41.19%		730		0.91%		13,447		16.71%		80,479
	Rusk		3,820		48.19%		3,985		50.27%		122		1.53%		-165		-2.08%		7,927
	St. Croix		18,784		44.90%		22,679		54.21%		372		0.89%		-3,895		-9.31%		41,835
	Sauk		15,708		51.64%		14,415		47.39%		294		0.96%		1,293		4.25%		30,417
	Sawyer		4,411		46.66%		4,951		52.37%		91		0.97%		-540		-5.71%		9,453
	Shawano		8,657		41.23%		12,150		57.86%		192		0.92%		-3,493		-16.63%		20,999
	Sheboygan		27,608		44.08%		34,458		55.02%		559		0.90%		-6,850		-10.94%		62,625
	Taylor		3,829		40.12%		5,582		58.49%		132		1.38%		-1,753		-18.37%		9,543
	Trempealeau		8,075		57.42%		5,878		41.80%		109		0.77%		2,197		15.62%		14,062
	Vernon		7,924		53.38%		6,774		45.63%		147		0.99%		1,150		7.75%		14,845
	Vilas		5,713		40.80%		8,155		58.24%		134		0.95%		-2,442		-17.44%		14,002
	Walworth		19,177		39.58%		28,754		59.35%		515		1.06%		-9,577		-19.77%		48,446
	Washburn		4,705		49.18%		4,762		49.78%		100		1.05%		-57		-0.60%		9,567
	Washington		21,234		29.30%		50,641		69.88%		592		0.82%		-29,407		-40.58%		72,467
	Waukesha		73,626		31.96%		154,926		67.25%		1,811		0.79%		-81,300		-35.29%		230,363
	Waupaca		10,792		40.01%		15,941		59.10%		241		0.89%		-5,149		-19.09%		26,974
	Waushara		5,257		42.93%		6,888		56.25%		101		0.83%		-1,631		-13.32%		12,246
	Winnebago		40,943		46.21%		46,542		52.53%		1,111		1.25%		-5,599		-6.32%		88,596
	Wood		18,950		47.29%		20,592		51.39%		529		1.32%		-1,642		-4.10%		40,071

County flips {{col-begin}}

Democratic Republican ]]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Iron (Largest city: Hurley)
Price (Largest city: Park Falls)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Columbia (Largest city: Portage)

By congressional district

Kerry and Bush each won four of eight congressional districts.

District	Bush	Representative
53%	46%	Paul Ryan
37%	62%	Tammy Baldwin
48%	51%	Ron Kind
30%	69%	Jerry Kleczka
	Gwen Moore
63%	36%	Jim Sensenbrenner
56%	42%	Tom Petri
49%	50%	Dave Obey
55%	44%	Mark Andrew Green

Electors

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

Gail Gabrelian
Margaret McEntire
Jordan Franklin
Martha Toran
Jim Shinners
Jan Banicki
Daniel Hannula
Steve Mellenthin
Glenn Carlson
Linda Honold

References

"Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics". Wisconsin Election Commission.
"D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings".
"2004 Presidential Election Polls".
[http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President]
[http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President]
[http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/ CNN.com Specials]
[http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ CNN.com Specials]
Hamilton, Lawrence. (September 2006). "Rural Voting in the 2004 Election".
[http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/WI/P/00/epolls.0.html CNN.com Election 2004]
"Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - County Data".

Info: Wikipedia Source

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