2012 United States presidential election in Iowa

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2012 Democratic Party presidential primaries

On January 3, 2012, the Iowa Democratic Party held statewide caucuses to select delegates to the county conventions. Incumbent Barack Obama ran unopposed. Of the 8,152 county convention delegates that were elected by the caucuses, 8,065 (99%) were for Obama and 87 (1%) were uncommitted. In the floor vote taken at the Democratic National Convention, 62 Iowa state delegates voted for Obama. The other 3 of the state's 65 allocated votes were not announced.

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2012 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

Romney:
Paul:
Perry:
Tie:

The 2012 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on January 3, 2012.

Using the media's generally accepted definition of the Iowa Republican caucus as the non-binding secret polling at caucus sites and using the incomplete data available, the 2012 Iowa Republican caucus was the closest race in Iowa caucus history with only a thirty-four vote margin (about of a percent) separating former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who received 29,839 votes (24.56%), and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who received 29,805 votes (24.53%). Representative Ron Paul of Texas ran a close third, receiving 26,036 votes (21.43%).

Trailing were former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (16,163 votes, 13.30%), Texas governor Rick Perry (12,557 votes, 10.33%), and Representative Michele Bachmann (6,046 votes, 4.98%). Former Utah governor and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, Jr., who skipped campaigning in Iowa to focus on the New Hampshire primary, received 739 votes (0.61%).

In total, 121,501 votes were recorded, this record was broken in the 2016 election by more than 60,000 votes. However, this total was still far less than the all-time Iowa caucus record in the 2008 Democratic Iowa caucuses, in which 239,000 Democrats voted. The 121,501 votes represent 19.8 percent of active registered Republicans in the state and just 5.4 percent of all Iowans eligible to vote.

However, the vote totals of eight precincts were never counted, so the vote totals are not really known.

The secret polling results at Republican caucus sites were unrelated to the delegate selection process in 2012, although that has been changed for the 2016 election cycle.

If the Iowa 2012 Republican caucuses were regarded as the start of the Republican delegate selection process for the 2012 United States presidential election, the real caucus process was the election of Republican delegates to the county conventions, who would eventually determine the delegates at the state convention in June 2012. This would, in turn, determine the Iowa delegates who would attend the Republican National Convention in August, 2012.

This process rewarded campaign organizations that could not only get supporters to the caucus sites, but get supporters who would be willing to serve as delegates to county conventions and beyond. As a result, Ron Paul was ultimately able to win 22 of the 28 delegates to the national convention and Mitt Romney won the other six.

The 2011–2012 pre-caucus poll results for Iowa had highly volatile results; Gallup polls showed the leading candidate in Iowa change seven times from May 2011 until the caucuses. The 2012 caucuses also set a new record for political expenditures, with $12 million being spent, two-thirds of it from "super PACs" which dominated the campaigns by running highly negative attack ads.

In the August 13 Ames Straw Poll, a traditional straw poll held in Iowa Republican caucuses, Bachmann narrowly defeated Paul, with Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty trailing in third. Following his disappointing showing, Pawlenty dropped out of the race.

Three candidates' debates were held in Iowa over the course the campaign: one on August 11 in Ames ahead of the straw poll; one on December 10, 2011, in Des Moines, and one on December 15 in Sioux City. Several other joint candidates' appearances took place during the caucus campaign outside Iowa.

The day after her unsatisfactory sixth-place performance in Iowa, Bachmann announced she was dropping out of the presidential race. Following his low fifth-place finish, Perry initially announced he was "reassessing" his campaign "to determine whether there is a path forward," but subsequently stated that he would continue on to New Hampshire and South Carolina.

General election

Candidates

There were eight candidates on the Iowa ballot in the general election: the two major-party candidates (Barack Obama and Mitt Romney) and six minor candidates.

• Barack Obama was the incumbent president and nominee of the Democratic Party. His running mate was Joe Biden, the incumbent vice president.
• Mitt Romney was the nominee of the Republican Party. His running mate was Paul Ryan, a United States Representative from Wisconsin.
• Virgil Goode was the nominee of the Constitution Party. His running mate was James Clymer.
• Jill Stein was the nominee of the Green Party. Her running mate was Cheri Honkala.
• Gary Johnson was the nominee of the Libertarian Party. His running mate was James P. Gray.
• Gloria La Riva appeared on the ballot as a stand-in for Peta Lindsay, the nominee of the Party for Socialism and Liberation, because Lindsay was ineligible to appear on the Iowa ballot due to her young age. Similarly, Stefanie Beacham appeared on the ballot as a stand-in for the party's nominee for vice president, Yari Osorio.
• James Harris was the nominee of the Socialist Workers Party. Alyson Kennedy was listed as Harris's running mate on the Iowa ballot, because the party's vice presidential nominee, Maura DeLuca, was too young to appear on the ballot.
• Jerry Litzel was an independent candidate. Litzel is a collector of presidential memorabilia and "thought it would be neat to collect a (presidential) ballot with my name on it", so he gathered the signatures necessary to appear on the Iowa ballot. His brother, Jim Litzel, is listed as his running mate.

Polling

Analysts considered Iowa to be a toss-up state—one which either major candidate could plausibly win.The Washington Post, CNN, and The Cook Political Report all label Iowa "toss-up".

• A majority of statewide opinion polls had shown Obama tied with or leading Romney. , polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight estimated that there was a 66% likelihood that Obama would win Iowa's electoral votes. Up until September 2012, polling showed a close race with Obama narrowly leading. In late September 2012, Obama gained momentum and this continued through the first three weeks of October 2012, where he won almost every poll in that time period. In October, when Romney gained momentum in other states, Obama won the majority of the polls conducted. Romney ended up winning the second to last poll, but other than that, Obama won every poll in the last week. The final poll showed Obama leading 50% to 48%, while an average of the last 3 polls showed Obama leading 48% to 46%.

Predictions

Results

By county

Obama won 38 counties and Romney won 61 counties. Obama won majorities in terms of the popular vote percentages in 35 counties and won pluralities in terms of the popular vote percentages in 3 counties. Romney won majorites in terms of the popular vote percentages in 57 counties and won pluralities in terms of the popular vote percentages in 4 counties.

Democratic Republican ]]

;Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Adams (largest city: Corning)
• Audubon (largest city: Audubon)
• Benton (largest city: Vinton)
• Carroll (largest city: Carroll)
• Crawford (largest city: Denison)
• Delaware (largest city: Manchester)
• Emmet (largest city: Estherville)
• Franklin (largest city: Hampton)
• Greene (largest city: Jefferson)
• Hamilton (largest city: Webster City)
• Hardin (largest city: Iowa Falls)
• Iowa (largest city: Williamsburg)
• Kossuth (largest city: Algona)
• Palo Alto (largest city: Emmetsburg)
• Warren (largest city: Indianola)
• Winnebago (largest city: Forest City)

;Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Woodbury (largest city: Sioux City)

By congressional district

Obama won three of four congressional districts, including one held by a Republican.

References

References

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12. An estimated 2,250,423 Iowans were eligible to vote. Michael McDonald, "[http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012P.html 2012 Presidential Nomination Contest Turnout Rates] {{Webarchive. link. (2012-01-10 " (January 4, 2012). United States Elections Project, George Mason University.)
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14. newswell. text. FRONTPAGE. p Editorial: In Iowa, a plague of stealth spending]{{Dead link. (May 2020)
15. Peter Hamby, [https://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/08/14/pawlenty/index.html Pawlenty drops out of presidential race" (August 14, 2011). CNN.]
16. Michael D. Shear and Jeff Zeleny, "[http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/pawlenty-drops-out-of-republican-race/ Pawlenty Drops Out of Republican Race]" (August 14, 2011). ''New York Times''.
17. "[http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/ 2011-2012 Primary Debates -- Schedule] {{Webarchive. link. (2012-01-07 .)
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21. Dave Montgomery and Maria Recio, "[http://www.kansascity.com/2012/01/04/3352804/texas-gov-rick-perry-decides-to.html Texas Gov. Rick Perry decides to stay in presidential race]" (January 4, 2012). McClatchy Newspapers.
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