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2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election

none

Field	Value
election_name	2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election
country	Minnesota
flag_year	1983
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election
previous_year	2010
next_election	2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election
next_year	2018
election_date	November 4, 2014
image1	File:Governor Mark Dayton interns02 (28945755112) (cropped 2).jpg
image_size	150x150px
nominee1	Mark Dayton
party1	Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party
running_mate1	Tina Smith
popular_vote1	989,113
percentage1	50.07%
image2	File:Jeff Johnson (cropped).jpg
nominee2	Jeff Johnson
party2	Republican Party (United States)
running_mate2	Bill Kuisle
popular_vote2	879,257
percentage2	44.51%
map_image
map_size	280px
map_caption	Dayton:
Johnson:
Tie:
title	Governor
before_election	Mark Dayton
before_party	Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party
after_election	Mark Dayton
after_party	Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party

Johnson:
Tie:
The 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Minnesota. It was held concurrently with the election to Minnesota's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor governor Mark Dayton ran for re-election to a second term in office. Incumbent Democratic lieutenant governor Yvonne Prettner Solon retired and Tina Smith was selected as his new running mate.

Primary elections were held on August 12, 2014. Dayton and Smith won the Democratic primary and the Republicans nominated Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson and his running mate former state representative Bill Kuisle. In the general election, Dayton and Smith defeated them and several other minor party candidates with just over 50% of the vote. Dayton's victory broke his own record, set in 2010, as the oldest Minnesota gubernatorial candidate to win an election; he was 67. It was also the first gubernatorial race since 1994 in which the winner received a majority of the votes cast.

The election was the first time since 1994 that a third party did not gain more than 6% of the total vote.

Background

Incumbent Republican governor Tim Pawlenty declined to run for a third term in 2010, instead running for the Republican presidential nomination in the 2012 election. State Representative Tom Emmer easily won the Republican nomination, and former U.S. senator Mark Dayton won the DFL nomination with a plurality over State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. After a very close race, Dayton defeated Emmer by just 8,770 votes, 0.42% of all votes cast.

Dayton's victory was one of just four that Minnesota Democrats have achieved out of 28 gubernatorial elections during a Democratic presidency. Despite this, and despite his narrow margin of victory in 2010, Dayton was not seen as a top Republican target. The Cook Political Report and The Rothenberg Political Report both rated the race as "safe Democratic", and Daily Kos Elections, Governing and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rated the race as "likely Democratic".

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Declared

Bill Dahn
- Running mate: James Vigliotti
Leslie Davis, activist
- Running mate: Gregor Soderberg
Mark Dayton, incumbent governor
- Running mate: Tina Smith, Dayton's former chief of staff

Results

Republican primary

Until 2014, Minnesota Republicans had not had a competitive gubernatorial primary since 1924, when Theodore Christianson beat Ole Jacobson by 2.8%, taking 22.8% of the vote in a six-candidate race that saw five candidates finish in double digits. In every election since then, the nominee had won the primary by at least 17.8% and on average by 62.2%.

At the Republican State Convention on May 30–31, 2014, Jeff Johnson received the party's endorsement. Dave A. Thompson withdrew from the race and endorsed Johnson. Scott Honour, Marty Seifert and Kurt Zellers all ran in the August primary, but Johnson prevailed with 30% of the vote.

Candidates

Declared

Merrill Anderson, former director of Reachout Today Inc and candidate for mayor of Minneapolis in 2013
- Running mate: Mark D. Anderson, former realtor and housing counselor.
Scott Honour, investment banker
- Running mate: Karin Housley, state senator
Jeff Johnson, Hennepin County commissioner and former state representative
- Running mate: Bill Kuisle, former state representative and farmer
Marty Seifert, former Minority Leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives and candidate for governor in 2010
- Running mate: Pam Myhra, state representative
Kurt Zellers, state representative and former speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives
- Running mate: Dean Simpson, former state representative

Withdrawn

Rob Farnsworth, teacher and candidate for Minnesota's 8th congressional district in 2010
Ole Savior, perennial candidate (ran for the U.S. Senate)
Dave A. Thompson, state senator and former radio host
- Running mate: Michelle Benson, state senator

Declined

Kurt Bills, former state representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012
Norm Coleman, former U.S. senator and nominee for governor in 1998
Matt Dean, state representative and former Majority Leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives
Keith Downey, chairman of the Republican Party of Minnesota and former state representative
Tom Emmer, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2010 (running for Congress)
Bill Guidera, finance chair of the Republican Party of Minnesota
David Hann, minority leader of the Minnesota Senate and candidate for governor in 2010
Karin Housley, state senator (running for lieutenant governor on Scott Honour's ticket)
Bill Ingebrigtsen, state senator
John Kline, U.S. representative
John Kriesel, former state representative
Susan Marvin, businesswoman
Erik Paulsen, U.S. representative
Tim Pawlenty, former governor
Julie Rosen, state senator
Ron Schutz, attorney
Rich Stanek, Hennepin County sheriff

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Rob
Farnsworth	Scott
Honour	Jeff
Johnson	Julie
Rosen	Ole
Savior	Marty
Seifert	Dave A.
Thompson	Kurt
Zellers	Other/
Undecided
SurveyUSA	June 5–9, 2014	404	± 5%	—	9%	23%	—	—	14%	—	23%	33%
Suffolk	April 24–28, 2014	73	± ?	1%	2%	7%	—	1%	10%	5%	8%	68%
Public Policy Polling	October 27–29, 2013	305	± 5.7%	—	6%	8%	10%	—	9%	11%	12%	44%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Norm
Coleman	Keith
Downey	David
Hann	Jeff
Johnson	Julie
Rosen	Marty
Seifert	Kurt
Zellers	Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 18–20, 2013	275	± 5.9%	57%	4%	4%	4%	5%	4%	5%	17%

Debate

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican	Key:
Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn	Republican Party (US)}}"		Republican Party (US)}}"		Republican Party (US)}}"		Republican Party (US)}}"		Republican Party (US)}}"		Merrill Anderson	Scott Honour	Jeff Johnson	Marty Seifert	Kurt Zellers	1
Jul. 30, 2014	Minnesota Public Radio	Mike Mulcahy	[YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmjU51f25Jw)

Results

Results by county:

| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ]]

Independence primary

A white woman with long brown hair speaks to her right. — Nicollet in 2014

The Independence Party of Minnesota state convention was held on May 17, 2014, at Minnesota State University, Mankato.

Candidates

Nominee

Hannah Nicollet, software developer
- Running mate: Tim Gieseke, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2013

Declined

Tom Horner, public affairs consultant and nominee for governor in 2010 (endorsed Jeff Johnson)

Results

Libertarian Party

The Libertarian Party of Minnesota state convention was held on April 26, 2014, in Maple Grove.

Candidates

Nominee

Chris Holbrook
- Running mate: Chris Dock

Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis Party

Candidates

Declared

Chris Wright, computer repair shop owner and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2010
- Running mate: David Daniels, playwright and performance artist

General election

Debates

Complete video of debate, October 1, 2014 - C-SPAN
Complete video of debate, October 8, 2014 - YouTube
Complete video of debate, October 9, 2014 - YouTube
Complete video of debate, October 14, 2014 - YouTube
Complete video of debate, October 19, 2014 - YouTube

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report		November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball		November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report		November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics		November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Jeff
Johnson (R)	Hannah
Nicollet (IP)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	October 27–30, 2014	596	± 4.1%	47%	42%	2%	4%	4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	October 16–23, 2014	2,430	± 3%	50%	41%	—	1%	9%
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune	October 20–22, 2014	800	± 3.5%	45%	38%	5%	2%	10%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	October 14–16, 2014	597	± 4.1%	50%	40%	3%	3%	4%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	September 30 – October 2, 2014	577	± 4.2%	51%	39%	4%	2%	4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	September 20 – October 1, 2014	2,562	± 2%	49%	42%	0%	1%	8%
Rasmussen Reports	September 29–30, 2014	750	± 4%	50%	40%	—	—	10%
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune	September 8–10, 2014	800	± 3.5%	45%	33%	1%	1%	20%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	August 18 – September 2, 2014	3,607	± 2%	48%	41%	—	2%	10%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	August 19–21, 2014	600	± 4.1%	49%	40%	3%	3%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	August 13–14, 2014	750	± 4%	49%	41%	—	—	10%
Gravis Marketing	July 2–3, 2014	879	± 3%	52%	37%	11%	—	—
Public Policy Polling	June 12–15, 2014	633	± 3.9%	47%	36%	—	—	16%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	June 5–9, 2014	1,017	± 3.1%	46%	40%	5%	2%	6%
Suffolk University	April 24–28, 2014	800	± ?	44%	30%	—	—	26%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV	February 25–27, 2014	545	± 4.3%	52%	34%	—	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	October 27–29, 2013	895	± 3.3%	48%	37%	—	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	May 17–19, 2013	712	± 3.7%	52%	34%	—	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	January 18–20, 2013	1,065	± 3%	53%	29%	—	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Merrill
Anderson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 12–15, 2014	633	± 3.9%	47%	35%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Norm
Coleman (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 18–20, 2013	1,065	± 3%	52%	39%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Kurt
Daudt (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 17–19, 2013	712	± 3.7%	51%	39%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Keith
Downey (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 18–20, 2013	1,065	± 3%	53%	30%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Tom
Emmer (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 17–19, 2013	712	± 3.7%	52%	39%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Rob
Farnsworth (R)	Other	Undecided
Suffolk	April 24–28, 2014	800	± ?	45%	28%	—	27%
SurveyUSA	February 25–27, 2014	545	± 4.3%	52%	31%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	David
Hann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 17–19, 2013	712	± 3.7%	51%	36%	—	13%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Scott
Honour (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 12–15, 2014	633	± 3.9%	47%	35%	—	19%
SurveyUSA	June 5–9, 2014	1,017	± 3.1%	47%	37%	10%	6%
Suffolk	April 24–28, 2014	800	± ?	45%	28%	—	27%
SurveyUSA	February 25–27, 2014	545	± 4.3%	53%	33%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	October 27–29, 2013	895	± 3.3%	48%	38%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	May 17–19, 2013	712	± 3.7%	52%	34%	—	15%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Tim
Pawlenty (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 18–20, 2013	1,065	± 3%	50%	42%	—	7%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Julie
Rosen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	October 27–29, 2013	895	± 3.3%	48%	36%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling	May 17–19, 2013	712	± 3.7%	51%	34%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	January 18–20, 2013	1,065	± 3%	52%	27%	—	21%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Marty
Seifert (R)	Other	Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	July 5–24, 2014	3,170	± 2%	53%	37%	6%	4%
Public Policy Polling	June 12–15, 2014	633	± 3.9%	47%	36%	—	17%
SurveyUSA	June 5–9, 2014	1,017	± 3.1%	46%	38%	10%	6%
Suffolk	April 24–28, 2014	800	± ?	43%	32%	—	25%
SurveyUSA	February 25–27, 2014	545	± 4.3%	51%	34%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	October 27–29, 2013	895	± 3.3%	48%	37%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Dave A.
Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Suffolk	April 24–28, 2014	800	± ?	43%	31%	—	26%
SurveyUSA	February 25–27, 2014	545 RV	± 4.3%	53%	32%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	October 27–29, 2013	895	± 3.3%	48%	37%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	May 17–19, 2013	712	± 3.7%	51%	35%	—	13%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Mark
Dayton (DFL)	Kurt
Zellers (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 12–15, 2014	633	± 3.9%	47%	37%	—	16%
SurveyUSA	June 5–9, 2014	1,017	± 3.1%	46%	39%	9%	5%
Suffolk	April 24–28, 2014	800	± ?	43%	31%	—	26%
SurveyUSA	February 25–27, 2014	545	± 4.3%	52%	31%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling	October 27–29, 2013	895	± 3.3%	48%	38%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	May 17–19, 2013	712	± 3.7%	53%	35%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	January 18–20, 2013	1,065	± 3%	52%	29%	—	19%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Grant (largest city: Elbow Lake)
Houston (largest city: La Crescent)
Pennington (largest city: Thief River Falls)
Pine (largest city: Pine City)
Pope (largest city: Glenwood)
Stevens (largest city: Morris)
Watonwan (largest city: St. James)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Polk (largest city: East Grand Forks)

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Johnson won five of eight congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.

District	Dayton	Representative
45%	48%	Tim Walz
46%	49%	John Kline
46%	50%	Erik Paulsen
59%	36%	Betty McCollum
71%	23%	Keith Ellison
39%	55%	Tom Emmer
44%	50%	Collin Peterson
51%	43%	Rick Nolan

Notes

References

(November 15, 2011). "Gov. Dayton stops by KARE 11 Sunrise, says he'll run again in 2014". [[KARE (TV).
Brian Bakst. (January 14, 2014). "Minn. Lt. Gov. Prettner Solon says no to 2nd term". [[San Francisco Chronicle]].
Ostermeier, Eric. (November 13, 2014). "Minnesotans Elect Oldest Governor, US House Delegation in State History". Smart Politics.
Ostermeier, Eric. (December 6, 2013). "Can Dayton Catch Lightning in a Bottle Twice?". Smart Politics.
(December 19, 2013). "2014 Governors Race Ratings for December 19, 2013". [[The Cook Political Report]].
(January 31, 2014). "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
Nir, David. (November 15, 2013). "Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings (2013-14)". Daily Kos Elections.
(July 16, 2013). "Handicapping the 2013-2014 Governors Races: The Democrats". [[Governing (magazine).
(February 3, 2014). "2014 Gubernatorial Races". [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]].
Salisbury, Bill. (January 22, 2014). "Frequent candidate Davis runs for governor, this time as a DFLer". [[St. Paul Pioneer Press.
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(June 24, 2013). "Kriesel says he's unlikely to return to politics". [[KARE (TV).
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