2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election

Republican primary

After incumbent Governor Tim Pawlenty announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term, the field was open for Republicans to seek their party's endorsement. At the Minnesota GOP's off-year state convention in October 2009, former Representative Marty Seifert took first place in a straw poll with 37% of the vote. Representative Tom Emmer took second place with 23%, Patricia Anderson had 14%, and the rest of the participating candidates received less than 10% each.

Seifert had another victory in the February 2 precinct caucuses, winning a statewide straw poll of caucus attendees with 50% of the vote, followed by Emmer with 39%. None of the other candidates got beyond single digits. Delegates to the state convention, however, were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than the initial straw poll indicated. Both camps claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention, but the outcome was uncertain and was ultimately decided on the convention floor.

On April 30, Emmer won the Republican endorsement at the party's state convention in Minneapolis. After Emmer won 56% of the vote on the second ballot, Seifert withdrew from the race and threw his support to Emmer. Emmer then chose Metropolitan Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor.

Emmer won the August 10 primary, earning a spot on the November ballot.

Candidates

Declared

• Bob Carney Jr., inventor
  • William McGaughey
• Leslie Davis, environmental activist
  • Gregory K. Soderberg
• Tom Emmer, state representative
  • Annette Meeks, Metropolitan Council Member
• Ole Savior, perennial candidate, artist, poet;
  • Todd "Elvis" Anderson, Elvis impersonator

Withdrew

• Patricia Anderson, former State Auditor
• Bill Haas, former state representative, former mayor of Champlin
• David Hann, state senator
• Phil Herwig, activist
• Mike Jungbauer, state senator, former mayor of East Bethel
• Paul Kohls, state representative
• Marty Seifert, state representative, former State House Minority Leader

Declined

• Laura Brod, state representative
• Norm Coleman, former U.S. Senator, former St. Paul mayor
• Paul Koering, state senator
• Tim Pawlenty, incumbent governor
• Jim Ramstad, former U.S. Representative
• Brian Sullivan, businessman
• Steve Sviggum, Commissioner of Labor and Industry and former State House Speaker
• Charlie Weaver, former Commissioner of Public Safety

Results

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

The list of candidates seeking the DFL's nomination was long going into the February 2 caucuses, with over 11 candidates having submitted their names for the candidate preference ballot. Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton notably declined to be included on the ballot. Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak won the straw poll with 21.8% of the vote, with State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher receiving 20.1%, and "uncommitted" receiving 14.7%. The other each candidates received single-digit support.{{cite web|url= http://caucusresults.sos.state.mn.us/ElecRslts.asp?M=PTY&PtyCd=DFL&elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUoaEaD_ec7PaP3iUiacyKUUr

Former State Senator Steve Kelley dropped out of the race after a disappointing result in the straw poll. State Senator Tom Bakk also dropped out on March 20 after announcing at the St. Louis County Convention that he believed his chances of winning were slim.

On April 24, the DFL State Convention was held in Duluth. State Senator John Marty withdrew from the race after seeing lower than expected support on the first ballot, and State Representative Tom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot, endorsing Kelliher. State Representative Paul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot, and before the results of the sixth ballot were announced, Rybak withdrew as well, endorsing Kelliher. Kelliher was subsequently endorsed by the convention. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, who had not sought the DFL endorsement but was planning to run in the primary, dropped out two days later. That left Kelliher facing Dayton and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza in the August primary.

Shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative term, all three major DFL candidates had announced their choices for lieutenant governor. On May 21, Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate. Gunyou is Minnetonka City Manager and was state finance commissioner in Republican Governor Arne Carlson's administration. On May 24, Dayton announced Yvonne Prettner Solon as his running mate. Solon is a psychologist and three-term state senator. On May 27, Entenza announced Robyne Robinson as his running mate. Robinson is a small-business owner and former TV anchor.

Dayton narrowly won the August 10 primary, earning the right to serve as his party's nominee. He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21.

Candidates

Declared

• Mark Dayton, former United States Senator
  • Yvonne Prettner Solon, Minnesota State Senator
• Matt Entenza, former State House Minority Leader
  • Robyne Robinson, former television personality
• Margaret Anderson Kelliher, State Speaker of the House
  • John Gunyou, Minnetonka City Manager
• Peter Idusogie
  • Lady Jayne Fontaine

Withdrew

• Tom Bakk, state senator
• Susan Gaertner, Ramsey County Attorney
• Steve Kelley, former state senator
• John Marty, state senator and 1994 DFL gubernatorial nominee
  • Patricia Torres Ray, state senator
• Tom Rukavina, state representative
• R.T. Rybak, Minneapolis mayor
• Paul Thissen, state representative

Declined

• Chris Coleman, Mayor of Saint Paul
• Mike Opat, Chairman of the Hennepin County Board of Commissioners

Polling

Results

| | | | | | | | ]] At 11:50 p.m. on primary night, Dayton took the lead from Kelliher, who had held an ever-shrinking lead since the polls closed.

Independence primary

On Sunday, May 9, 2010, Tom Horner won the endorsement of the Independence Party for governor. His main opponent, Rob Hahn, said he would contest the primary.

Horner won the August 10 primary, defeating Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot.

Candidates

• Rob Hahn
  • Thomas Harens
• Tom Horner, public affairs consultant
  • Jim Mulder
• Phil Ratté
  • Gayle-Lynn Lemaster
• John T. Uldrich
  • Stephen Williams
• Rahn V. Workcuff
  • Mark F. Workcuff

Withdrew

• Joe Repya, former lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army

Declined

• Tim Penny, former U.S. Representative
• Dean Barkley, former U.S. Senator
• Peter Bell, Metropolitan Council Chair
• David Olson, Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President

Results

General election

Early polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents, with Horner trailing far behind, and a large percentage of voters undecided. As the race progressed, polls showed the candidates even, or Dayton with a small but significant lead. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, CQ Politics and pollster Rasmussen Reports rated the gubernatorial election a tossup, while New York Times political statistician Nate Silver gave Dayton an 86% chance of winning and Emmer 14%.

Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8,770 votes (0.42%). The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law, but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton's lead would be overturned.

Dayton became just the fourth victorious Minnesota Democrat to win a gubernatorial election with a Democrat in the White House in 28 cycles.

Candidates

• Tom Emmer (R) – State Representative; and Annette Meeks, Metropolitan Council Member
• Mark Dayton (DFL) – former United States Senator; and Yvonne Prettner Solon, Minnesota State Senator
• Tom Horner (IP) – public affairs consultant; and Jim Mulder
• Ken Pentel (EDP) and Erin Wallace
• Farheen Hakeem (G) and Dan Dittman
• Chris Wright (GR) and Edwin Engelmann
• Linda Eno (Resource Party) and Howard Hanson

Predictions

Polling

Graphical summary

With Entenza

With Kelliher

With Pawlenty

With Emmer

With Seifert

With Coleman

Results

|{{legend0|#ffdac1| | | | | | | | |{{legend0|#8d3b21|16%

Recount results

The recount was carried out by the Minnesota Secretary of State, Mark Ritchie, as part of a State Canvassing Board, which consists of the secretary of state, two justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court, and two judges of a Minnesota district court. The vote totals were not changed, and Dayton was declared the governor-elect.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Clearwater (Largest city: Bagley)
• Grant (Largest city: Elbow Lake)
• Pennington (Largest city: Thief River Falls)
• Lincoln (largest city: Tyler)
• Pine (largest city: Pine City)
• Fillmore (largest city: Spring Valley)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Clay (Largest city: Moorhead)
• Nicollet (Largest city: North Mankato)

References

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