2014 United States Senate election in Virginia

Background

Businessman Mark Warner first ran for the U.S. Senate in 1996, losing to incumbent Republican John Warner (no relation), but by a closer than expected margin, 53% to 47%. He then ran for Governor of Virginia in 2001, winning with 52% of the vote. After John Warner declined to run for a sixth term in 2008, Mark Warner ran to succeed him. Unopposed in the Democratic primary, he defeated the Republican nominee, fellow former governor Jim Gilmore, in a landslide, 65% to 34%.

Warner was widely expected to run for the Democratic nomination in the 2008 presidential election, but declined to do so, and also declined to be considered as a vice-presidential candidate. He considered running for governor again in 2013 but decided against it, and ran for re-election to a second term. Opinion polls consistently ranked Warner as the most popular elected officials in Virginia, with an approval rating consistently in the mid-60s. This, combined with his large campaign war chest, meant that he was widely dubbed "unbeatable".

Democratic primary

Warner was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

• Mark Warner, incumbent U.S. senator

Endorsements

Elected officials

• Brandon Bell, former Republican state senator
• Robert Bloxom, former Republican state delegate and former Secretary of Agriculture and Forestry
• Preston Bryant, former Republican state delegate and former Secretary of Natural Resources
• Vince Callahan, former Republican state delegate
• John Chichester, former Republican state senator and Republican nominee for lieutenant governor in 1985
• Jim Dillard, former Republican state delegate
• Linwood Holton, former Republican governor of Virginia
• Clint Miller, former Republican state delegate and Republican candidate for governor in 1993
• Russ Potts, former Republican state senator and independent candidate for governor in 2005
• Fred Quayle, former Republican state senator
• Ann Rhodes, former Republican state delegate
• Edgar Robb, former Republican state senator and former Albemarle County Sheriff
• Jack Rollison, former Republican state delegate
• Bob Tata, former Republican state delegate
• Katherine Waddell, former Republican state delegate
• John Warner, former Republican U.S. senator from Virginia

Republican convention

The Republican Party of Virginia's governing body voted in May 2013 to select its 2014 U.S. Senate nominee at a convention. The convention was held on June 7, 2014, in Roanoke, Virginia.

Candidates

Results

Ed Gillespie and Shak Hill were the main players at the convention. A 50% majority was required to receive the nomination; if no candidate achieved such a majority, voting would move to a second or third round. Results of the first ballot of voting were announced as they were finalized by congressional district, and after it became clear that Gillespie was going to win (he had about 60% of the vote with about 90% counted), Hill conceded the race and motioned to nominate Gillespie by acclamation, asking his supporters to support Gillespie. Gillespie was then nominated by acclamation.

Declared

• Tony DeTora, congressional policy adviser
• Ed Gillespie, lobbyist and former chairman of the Republican National Committee
• Shak Hill, retired Air Force pilot and businessman
• Chuck Moss, businessman

Withdrew

• Howie Lind, former Navy commander and former chairman of Virginia's 10th congressional district Republican committee

Declined

• Bill Bolling, former lieutenant governor of Virginia
• Jerry Boykin, retired lieutenant general and executive vice president of the Family Research Council
• Liz Cheney, attorney, political commentator, and daughter of Dick Cheney (ran for senate in Wyoming)
• Ben Cline, state delegate
• Barbara Comstock, state delegate (ran for VA-10)
• Ken Cuccinelli, former attorney general of Virginia and nominee for governor in 2013
• Artur Davis, former Democratic U.S. representative from Alabama
• Michael Farris, founder of Patrick Henry College, the Home School Legal Defense Association and nominee for lieutenant governor in 1993
• Randy Forbes, U.S. representative
• Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the United States House of Representatives and candidate for President of the United States in 2012
• E.W. Jackson, pastor, conservative activist, small business lawyer, Marine Corps Veteran, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2013
• Bob Marshall, state delegate and candidate for the United States Senate in 2008 and 2012
• Bob McDonnell, former governor of Virginia and former attorney general of Virginia (ineligible due to felony convictions for bribery and corruption)
• Jeff McWaters, state senator
• Pete Snyder, technology executive and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013
• Susan Stimpson, chairwoman of the Stafford County Board of Supervisors

Endorsements

Individuals

• Al Aitken, chairman of the Culpeper County Republican Committee
• George Allen, former U.S. senator and former governor of Virginia
• Rob Bell, state delegate and candidate for attorney general of Virginia in 2013
• Morton Blackwell, president and founder of the Leadership Institute and Virginia RNC committeeman
• Pam Brown, chair of the Republican Party of Norfolk
• Jim Fisher, Fauquier County commonwealth's attorney
• Mike Ginsberg, chairman of the 8th Congressional District Republican Committee
• Steve Martin, state senator
• Jackson Miller, state delegate
• Mark Obenshain, state senator and nominee for attorney general of Virginia in 2013
• Israel O'Quinn, state delegate
• John Scott, chairman of the Young Republican Federation of Virginia
• Pete Snyder, technology executive and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013
• Kathy Hayden Terry, Virginia RNC committeewoman
• Terry Wear, chairman of the 11th Congressional District Republican Committee
• John Whitbeck, chairman of the 10th Congressional District Republican Committee

Individuals

• Jerry Boykin, retired lieutenant general and executive vice president of the Family Research Council
• Alan Keyes, former assistant secretary of state, former candidate for US president, former candidate for US Senate

Organizations

• Club for Growth
• Concerned Veterans for Americans
• Family Research Council
• Gun Owners of America
• Heritage Action

Libertarian convention

The Libertarian Party of Virginia held its convention on February 8, 2014. The delegates at the convention nominated Robert Sarvis as the party's candidate for the U.S. Senate. Sarvis received notification from the Virginia State Board of Elections that he had achieved statewide ballot access on June 26, 2014.

Candidates

Declared

• Robert Sarvis, attorney, businessman and nominee for governor in 2013

Endorsements

Elected officials

• Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico and Libertarian Party presidential nominee in 2012

Individuals

• Caleb Coulter, representative at the 2012 Republican National Convention, candidate for the State House in 2012 and former member of the Roanoke City Republican Committee
• Robert Shannon, founder and former chairman of the Mechanicsville and King William TEA Party groups

Organizations

• Our America PAC
• The Virginia Liberty Party

Write-in

Candidates

Declared

• Brad Froman (write-in), businessman

General election

Fundraising

Top contributors

According to OpenSecrets.org, Democrat Mark Warner's top five contributors were JPMorgan Chase, Dominion Resources, Altria Group, Norfolk Southern, and The Blackstone Group. Republican Ed Gillespie's top five contributors were BlueCross/BlueShield, BGR Group, The Blackstone Group, Jennmar Corporation, and the Altria Group. Thus, Warner and Gillespie shared the Altria Group and the Blackstone Group as top five contributors. Libertarian Robert Sarvis was primarily funded through self-financing and individual contributions.

Third quarter reports

After third quarter reports, the last before the election, Warner raised an additional $2 million. Gillespie pulled various television ads, stating "he [did] not have the financial resources" to match Warner.

Outside spending

In the debates, Warner said, "I think we ought to get rid of all Super PACs and all outside money." However, throughout the campaign, Super PACs supported Warner while no comparable Super PAC backed Gillespie. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, as of October 23, outside groups had spent $2,571,319 to influence the election.

Campaign finance reports

Cost per vote

Warner spent $18,105,322 for the election and received 1,073,667 votes at $16.86 per vote. Gillespie spent $7,873,079 during the campaign and received 1,055,940 votes at $7.46 per vote. Sarvis spent $84,949 and received 53,102 votes at $1.60 per vote.

Debates and forums

Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Ed Gillespie agreed to three debates and six forums. Gillespie also agreed to three additional debates, but Warner declined. Libertarian Robert Sarvis, who submitted a petition with over 1,000 signatures to debate organizers, challenged Warner and Gillespie to include him in the debates. In August, Warner accepted the challenge and requested that Sarvis be invited to the remaining debates; Gillespie did not respond. In the end, Sarvis was not invited to any of the debates, and was only invited to one joint appearance.

Confirmed debates

Virginia Bar Association

The Virginia Bar Association (VBA) debate occurred at 11 a.m. on July 26 at The Greenbrier in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. PBS NewsHour co-anchor Judy Woodruff moderated the debate, which was free and open to public. The VBA decided to invite only Warner and Gillespie. VBA president John L. Walker III said: "They are the only candidates who qualify under our criteria for invitations." In response to not being invited, Sarvis said, "Virginia voters lost". In addition, some political observers, like the Franklin Center for Government and Public Integrity's project watchdog.org, noted that issues like surveillance and cronyism were missing from the debate. Fewer than 800 people watched the debate on PBS' livestream, which was characterised by Politico as civil, with both candidates "at their best". The debate was later replayed multiple times on C-SPAN.

• Complete video of debate

Fairfax Chamber of Commerce

The Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce hosted a debate on October 7. The debate was moderated by Chuck Todd, the host of Meet the Press. The debate was broadcast live on WRC-TV in Northern Virginia, and was offered to all NBC affiliates in Virginia. In their second debate, Warner and Gillespie aired their differences on marriage equality, the Affordable Care Act, and America's foreign policy challenges. Both candidates appeared uncomfortable at times. Gillespie lashed out against Warner for voting with President Barack Obama "97 percent of the time"; Warner fired back, calling it a "bogus charge". Sarvis was not invited.

• Complete video of debate

The People's Debate

The League of Women Voters of Virginia and American Association of Retired Persons of Virginia hosted "The People's Debate" on October 13 in Richmond, Virginia. The debate was offered by WTVR-TV (CBS) and WCVE-TV (Virginia Public Television) to all of their affiliates. In the third and final debate, the candidates discussed the economy, education, Social Security, healthcare, and campaign finance reform. The debate was heated at times, particularly when Warner spoke against Gillespie's past lobbying experience; Gillespie focused on Warner's recent admission that he called State Senator Phillip Puckett and spoke about jobs for Puckett's daughter. Sarvis was not invited to the debate. Sarvis described the debate as the "no people's debate" because he was "the only candidate not bought and paid for by corporate interests."

Confirmed forums

Arlington Civic Federation

The Arlington County Civic Federation hosted a forum at 7:30pm on September 2 at Virginia Hospital Center's Hazel Auditorium in Arlington, Virginia. The event was recorded and televised by Arlington Independent Media. More than one hundred people attended the Arlington forum. Sarvis participated in the event; Warner and Gillespie declined.

Northern Virginia Technology Council

The Northern Virginia Technology Council and Microsoft co-hosted a forum, at the Microsoft Offices in Reston, Virginia, from 8 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. on September 8. The forum delved into details about cybersecurity policy, immigration visas for skilled workers and other issues important to the tech community. Warner and Gillespie participated; Sarvis was not invited.

The Battleground

The Battleground Forum with Northern Virginia Chambers of Commerce occurred between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. on September 19 at the Center for Innovative Technology in Herndon, Virginia. The debate-style forum was hosted by chambers of commerce from Loudoun, Prince William, Reston and Fredericksburg. Questions included the Affordable Care Act, balancing the budget, the Marketplace Fairness Act, Virginia's economy and student loan debt. Warner's and Gillespie's answers centered around two themes: Warner speaking about his bipartisanship record and Gillespie pairing Warner with President Barack Obama. Sarvis was not invited.

Roanoke Chamber of Commerce

The Roanoke Chamber of Commerce joint appearance occurred between 11:30 a.m. and 1:00 p.m., at the City Market Building in Roanoke, Virginia, on October 6. The forum was moderated by Dr. Robert "Bob" Denton, who leads the communication department at Virginia Tech. Warner, Gillespie, and Sarvis were invited. Warner highlighted his record of bipartisanship; Gillespie questioned whether Warner is really the centrist he claims to be; and Sarvis argued the two-party system is broken and neither of his opponents offers any meaningful change. The forum covered a variety of issues, including transportation funding, immigration reform and foreign policy, and a question about the Affordable Care Act highlighted the candidates' differences.

Sorensen Institute

The Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership, Danville Register & Bee, and WSET-TV joint appearance occurred October 14 at 7 p.m. in Danville, Virginia. Warner and Gillespie participated. Sarvis was not invited.

Christopher Newport University

The Christopher Newport University joint appearance took place on October 17 in Gaines Theater in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Warner and Gillespie answered questions from Dr. Quentin Kidd, a government professor and director of Christopher Newport University's Wason Center. The event was free and open to the public. Warner and Gillespie attended. Sarvis was not invited.

Central Business District Association

The Central Business District Association joint appearance was at the Westin Virginia Beach Town Center, from 8:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. on October 23. Warner and Gillespie participated. Sarvis was not invited.

Proposed debates

James Madison University debate

The proposed debate was sponsored by Virginia21 and the JMU Student Government Association. Gillespie accepted the debate invitation; Warner declined. Sarvis was not invited to the debate. A representative of the university's student government association wrote: "Both campaigns had stated that if Mr. Sarvis were to be invited to participate in the debate their chances of agreeing to accept the invitation was unlikely and actually committing was even less likely." While the debate was not agreed to, Warner and Sarvis spoke with JMU students on August 31.

University of Mary Washington debate

The proposed debate was sponsored by the UMW Student Government Association, the Fredericksburg Regional Chamber of Commerce, and The Free-Lance Star. Sarvis was invited and accepted the debate invitation; Warner and Gillespie declined.

University of Virginia debate

The proposed debate was sponsored by the University of Virginia's Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. Gillespie accepted the invitation. Warner declined. Sarvis was not invited.

George Mason University debate

Gillespie accepted an invitation to debate at George Mason University; Warner declined.

Predictions

Polling

With Bolling

With Cantor

With Cuccinelli

With Kristol

With Marshall

With McDonnell

With Obenshain

Results

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Accomack (largest city: Chincoteague)
• Amelia (no municipalities)
• Amherst (largest city: Amherst)
• Appomattox (largest city: Appomattox)
• Bath (largest city: Hot Springs)
• Bedford (largest city: Bedford)
• Bland (largest city: Bland)
• Botetourt (largest city: Cloverdale)
• Buckingham (largest city: Dillwyn)
• Buchanan (largest city: Grundy)
• Buena Vista (independent city)
• Bristol (independent city)
• Campbell (largest city: Altavista)
• Carroll (largest city: Hillsville)
• Charlotte (largest city: Keysville)
• Chesapeake (independent city)
• Chesterfield (no municipalities)
• Clarke (largest city: Berryville)
• Craig (largest city: New Castle)
• Cumberland (largest city: Farmville)
• Culpeper (largest borough: Culpeper)
• Dickenson (largest borough: Clintwood)
• Dinwiddie (largest town: McKenney)
• Essex (largest city: Tappahannock)
• Emporia (independent city)
• Fauquier (largest city: Warrenton)
• Floyd (largest city: Floyd)
• Franklin (largest city: Rocky Mount)
• Fluvanna (largest city: Monticello)
• Galax (independent city)
• Giles (largest city: Pearisburg)
• Frederick (largest city: Winchester)
• Gloucester (Largest city: Gloucester Point)
• Goochland (no municipalities)
• Grayson (largest city: Independence)
• Greene (largest city: Twin Lakes)
• Halifax (largest city: South Boston)
• Henry (largest city: Martinsville)
• Highland (largest city: Monterey)
• Isle of Wight (largest city: Smithfield)
• James City (no municipalities)
• King and Queen (largest city: King and Queen Courthouse)
• King George (largest city: King George)
• King William (largest city: West Point)
• Lancaster (largest city: Kilmarnock)
• Lee (largest city: Pennington Gap)
• Loudoun (largest city: Leesburg)
• Louisa (largest city: Louisa)
• Lunenburg (largest city: Victoria)
• Lexington (independent city)
• Lynchburg (independent city)
• Madison (largest city: Madison)
• Matthews (no municipalities)
• Mecklenburg (largest city: South Hill)
• Middlesex (largest city: Urbanna)
• Northumberland (largest city: Heathsville)
• New Kent (no municipalities)
• Norton (independent city)
• Radford (independent city)
• Nottoway (largest city: Blackstone)
• Orange (largest city: Orange)
• Page (largest city: Luray)
• Patrick (largest city: Stuart)
• Pittsylvania (largest city: Chatham)
• Prince George (largest city: Fort Gregg-Adams)
• Pulaski (largest city: Pulaski)
• Salem (independent city)
• Staunton (independent city)
• Rappahannock (largest city: Washington)
• Richmond (largest city: Warsaw)
• Roanoke (largest city: Vinton)
• Rockbridge (largest city: Lexington)
• Russell (largest city: Lebanon)
• Scott (largest city: Gate City)
• Shenandoah (largest city: Strasburg)
• Smyth (largest city: Marion)
• Southampton (largest municipality: Courtland)
• Spotsylvania (largest municipality: Spotsylvania Courthoouse)
• Stafford (no municipalities)
• Tazewell (largest city: Richlands)
• Warren (largest city: Front Royal)
• Washington (largest city: Abingdon)
• Wise (largest city: Big Stone Gap)
• Westmoreland (largest city: Colonial Beach)
• Winchester (independent city)
• Virginia Beach (independent city)
• Waynesboro (independent city)
• Wythe (largest city: Wytheville)
• York (largest city: Grafton)

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Gillespie won eight of 11 congressional districts.

References

References

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