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2005 Virginia gubernatorial election

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Field	Value
election_name	2005 Virginia gubernatorial election
country	Virginia
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2001 Virginia gubernatorial election
previous_year	2001
next_election	2009 Virginia gubernatorial election
next_year	2009
election_date	November 8, 2005
turnout	45.0% 1.4
<!-- Tim Kaine -->	image1	File:Gov. Tim Kaine (cropped).jpg
image_size	150x150px
nominee1	Tim Kaine
party1	Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1	1,025,942
percentage1	51.72%
<!-- Jerry Kilgore -->	image2	File:Jerry Kilgore (2004) (1).jpg
nominee2	Jerry Kilgore
party2	Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2	912,327
percentage2	45.99%
map_image
map_size	300px
map_caption	Kaine:
Kilgore:
title	Governor
before_election	Mark Warner
before_party	Democratic Party (United States)
after_election	Tim Kaine
after_party	Democratic Party (United States)

Kilgore:

The 2005 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2005, to elect the next governor of Virginia. The election was concurrent with other elections for Virginia's statewide offices, the House of Delegates, and other various political offices. Incumbent Democratic governor Mark Warner was ineligible to run for re-election as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits its governors from serving consecutive terms. Democratic Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine and Republican Jerry Kilgore easily won their respective primaries. Republican state senator Russ Potts ran as an independent candidate. Kaine defeated Kilgore by 5.78% points, which mirrored Warner's 5.13% margin in the 2001 Virginia gubernatorial election.

In the 2001 Virginia gubernatorial election, Democrat Mark Warner was accredited with strong performances in rural areas of the commonwealth which saw some reversions to Republican Jerry Kilgore in this election. Kaine made heavy attempts to appeal to suburban and exurban counties in Northern Virginia where President Bush did strongly in 2004 through campaigning with Governor Warner and support of zoning laws. Democratic governor Warner maintained high approval ratings in the state with 70-80% job approval — Kaine consistently associated himself with him. Kilgore ran a heavily aggressive campaign by attacking Kaine as an "out-of-touch liberal" who supported tax increases and opposed the death penalty. Kilgore lead in the initial polls though his aggressive campaign strategy saw Kaine become the favorite by Election Day.

Virginia was considered competitive throughout the election, while the state's historical precedent of voting the party not in the presidential office since 1977 was noted as an important factor in the campaign. The election was largely viewed as a referendum on President Bush's second term ahead of the 2006 midterms by political pundits. Bush's late appearance in the state was viewed by both political parties as an attempt to potentially motivate their voters on Election Day. Warner's popularity and Kaine's focus on affordability were seen as the main factors for Kaine's win.

This is the most recent election in which the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of opposite parties were elected. This is the last gubernatorial election when Accomack County, Buchanan County, Fluvanna County, Henry County, King and Queen County, Nottoway County, Rappahannock County, Westmoreland County and the independent cities of Buena Vista and Lynchburg have voted Democratic for governor.

Democratic primary

On March 16, 2005, Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine formally launched his campaign for governor though he was widely anticipated as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination before his official announcement. From July 1 to December 31, 2004, Kaine raised $2.1 million with $3.2 million to spend in the campaign. In addition, he received $1.5 million in financial support from the Democratic National Committee. He did not receive opposition in the primary, becoming the Democratic nominee by default.

Candidates

Nominee

Tim Kaine, Lieutenant Governor of Virginia (2002-2006) and former mayor of Richmond (1998-2001)

Republican primary

On January 17, 2005, Republican Jerry Kilgore announced he would resign from Attorney General to campaign for governor on February 1. From July 1 to December 31, 2004, Kilgore raised $2 million with $3.3 million to spend in the campaign. He launched his campaign with support for conservative economic and social policies.

On February 28, 2005, Warrenton mayor, George Fitch declared his candidacy for governor as the more conservative candidate — he promised to never raise taxes. Due to Republican support and fundraising advantages for Kilgore, Fitch was considered the underdog in the Republican primary.

On June 4, Kilgore easily defeated Fitch in the primary becoming the Republican nominee.

Candidates

Nominee

Jerry Kilgore, former Attorney General of Virginia (2002-2005)

Eliminated in primary

George Fitch, mayor of Warrenton (1998-2014)

Results

Third Parties and Independents

Candidates

Independent Republican

Russ Potts, state senator from Virginia's 27th district (Independent Republican)

General election

Candidates

Tim Kaine, lieutenant governor of Virginia and former mayor of Richmond (Democratic)
Jerry Kilgore, former attorney general of Virginia (Republican)
Russ Potts, state senator from Winchester (Independent Republican)

The general election was expected to be close, with Independent candidate Russ Potts as a possible spoiler candidate. Kaine remained behind in polls throughout most of the campaign, at one point 10 points behind Kilgore, but captured a slight lead in the final weeks of the campaign. Kaine led in some polls for the first time in October 2005 and held his lead into the final week before the election.

Kaine closely associated himself with popular outgoing Democratic Governor Mark Warner during his campaign; he won his race by a slightly larger margin than Warner. He promised homeowner tax relief, centrist fiscal leadership, and strong support for education. A number of factors, from the sagging poll numbers of President George W. Bush to a public disgust over the death penalty ads run by Kilgore, have also been cited as key to his decisive win.

The election was the most expensive in Virginia history, with the candidates combined raising over $42 million.

Campaign

Kilgore resigned as attorney general in February 2005 to run for governor (as is the convention in Virginia) and easily won the primary election against Warrenton Mayor George B. Fitch to become the Republican nominee. In the general election, he ran against Democratic nominee Tim Kaine, the lieutenant governor of Virginia, and State Senator Russ Potts, a pro-choice Republican who ran as an independent candidate. Early in the race, Kilgore showed solid leads of ten points or more in the polls, but Kaine steadily closed the gap and ultimately defeated Kilgore by a margin of 52% to 46%.

Kilgore's campaign was at times criticized for taking steps to avoid debates; Kilgore refused to debate Potts for the majority of the campaign, at times leaving Kaine and Potts to debate each other in his absence. He agreed to debate only with Kaine, and only if the footage could not be aired in campaign commercials. During this debate, he refused to answer whether or not he would make abortion a crime. This apparent public moderation of his previously open and hardline stance on abortion troubled some of his conservative supporters.

He was further criticized for failing to limit his negative advertisements to 50% of his campaign's total publicity as Kaine proposed. One such advertisement featured a father whose son had been murdered by a man who was on Virginia's death row; the father expressed doubt that the sentence would be carried out if Kaine were elected and alleged that Kaine would not even have authorized the execution of Adolf Hitler, based on an interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch. The negative reaction to the mention of Hitler combined with Kaine's pledge to carry out the death penalty and explanation of his personal opposition as arising from his Catholic faith helped to neutralize what many observers thought would've been a potent issue for Kilgore. Kaine's campaign also ran an ad entitled "Wrong" quoting many Virginia newspapers in their condemnation of Kilgore and his campaign ads which stated (all caps emphasis) "All these newspapers can't be WRONG: 'Jerry Kilgore's ads are a VILE attempt to manipulate for political gain. . . they TWIST the truth. . . and SMEAR Tim Kaine. . . Kilgore's attacks are DISHONEST. . . FALSELY accuse Kaine. . . and TAR a decent man. . . Kilgore CROSSED the line. . . DRAGGING Kaine's beliefs through the mud. . . Jerry Kilgore should APOLOGIZE to Tim Kaine.'"

In trying to explain how a solid Republican could lose a traditionally Republican state by such a large margin, political commentators cited numerous key factors. Kaine's campaign had many political advantages, including his association with the state's popular Democratic Governor Mark Warner and defense of Warner's 2004 budget priorities, his "response ads" to Kilgore's death penalty advertisements where he spoke to voters about his religious convictions and as mentioned above, reminded them about how a large cross-section of Virginia media strongly condemned Kilgore for his negative death penalty ads, his relentless in-person campaigning across the state, and his opposition to tax increases. Experienced attorney Lawrence Roberts served as Kaine's campaign chairman. In contrast, Kilgore's campaign had many political disadvantages, including a backlash over the death penalty ads that Kilgore's campaign ran in the fall, the relatively low poll numbers of then-President George W. Bush at the time of the election, and a bitter division between the moderate and conservative wings of the Republican Party over tax and spending priorities.

Debates

Complete video of first debate, September 13, 2005
Complete video of second debate, October 9, 2005

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball		October 25, 2005

Polling

Source	Date	Kaine (D)	Kilgore (R)	Potts (I)
Survey USA	November 7, 2005	50%	45%	4%
Mason-Dixon	November 4, 2005	45%	44%	4%
Rasmussen	November 4, 2005	49%	46%	2%
Roanoke College	November 2, 2005	44%	36%	5%
The Washington Post	October 30, 2005	47%	44%	4%
Rasmussen	October 28, 2005	46%	44%	4%
Mason-Dixon	October 25, 2005	42%	44%	5%
Rasmussen	October 24, 2005	46%	48%	2%
Hotline	October 18, 2005	40%	38%	5%
Survey USA	October 17, 2005	47%	45%	4%
Rasmussen	October 12, 2005	44%	46%	1%
Rasmussen	September 28, 2005	45%	45%	5%
Survey USA	September 19, 2005	43%	46%	4%
Mason-Dixon	September 18, 2005	40%	41%	6%
Rasmussen	September 16, 2005	40%	43%	5%
Survey USA	August 9, 2005	43%	48%	3%
Rasmussen	August 4, 2005	39%	45%	5%
Mason-Dixon	July 24, 2005	38%	37%	9%
Rasmussen	July 14, 2005	41%	47%	4%
Survey USA	June 30, 2005	39%	49%	5%
Rasmussen	June 16, 2005	40%	46%	2%
Survey USA	May 17, 2005	40%	44%	5%

Results

Results by county and independent city

Kaine	Votes	Kilgore	Votes	Potts	Votes	Others	Votes
Accomack	49.8%	3,860	48.5%	3,754	1.6%	126	0.1%	5
Albemarle	61.2%	18,455	36.4%	10,994	2.4%	711	0.0%	14
Alexandria	71.9%	25,061	26.3%	9,173	1.7%	605	0.1%	25
Alleghany	53.9%	2,907	44.0%	2,373	2.1%	115	0.0%	2
Amelia	37.0%	1,368	60.9%	2,251	2.0%	74	0.1%	3
Amherst	43.6%	3,576	54.2%	4,450	2.1%	175	0.0%	4
Appomattox	39.5%	1,804	58.3%	2,663	2.2%	99	0.1%	4
Arlington	74.3%	42,319	23.9%	13,631	1.7%	990	0.1%	49
Augusta	33.1%	6,395	63.1%	12,197	3.7%	721	0.1%	12
Bath	45.1%	729	53.2%	860	1.6%	26	0.1%	2
Bedford County	37.1%	7,524	60.8%	12,330	2.1%	420	0.1%	14
Bedford	49.1%	892	48.2%	877	2.6%	47	0.1%	2
Bland	36.8%	706	61.4%	1,176	1.8%	34	0.0%	0
Botetourt	39.4%	4,083	58.4%	6,053	2.2%	227	0.1%	10
Bristol	37.8%	1,548	61.5%	2,515	0.7%	27	0.0%	1
Brunswick	60.3%	2,691	39.0%	1,742	0.7%	31	0.0%	2
Buchanan	52.2%	3,171	47.3%	2,875	0.4%	27	0.1%	4
Buckingham	47.9%	1,822	50.0%	1,899	2.1%	80	0.0%	0
Buena Vista	51.9%	799	46.3%	713	1.8%	28	0.0%	0
Campbell	36.8%	5,319	61.3%	8,864	1.8%	264	0.1%	15
Caroline	53.7%	3,396	44.0%	2,786	2.2%	142	0.0%	1
Carroll	38.9%	2,942	59.2%	4,485	1.9%	143	0.0%	1
Charles City	69.1%	1,565	29.6%	671	1.3%	29	0.0%	0
Charlotte	43.2%	1,637	54.9%	2,078	1.8%	69	0.1%	2
Charlottesville	79.4%	8,018	18.5%	1,870	2.0%	205	0.1%	11
Chesapeake	50.3%	26,612	47.1%	24,885	2.6%	1,357	0.1%	34
Chesterfield	44.7%	40,134	53.6%	48,112	1.7%	1,484	0.1%	81
Clarke	45.0%	2,225	47.6%	2,350	7.3%	363	0.1%	4
Colonial Heights	29.4%	1,777	68.2%	4,116	2.4%	143	0.0%	2
Covington	61.5%	1,022	35.3%	587	3.2%	53	0.0%	0
Craig	42.4%	754	54.8%	975	2.7%	48	0.2%	3
Culpeper	38.0%	3,689	59.4%	5,762	2.5%	242	0.1%	5
Cumberland	43.8%	1,144	54.3%	1,420	1.9%	50	0.0%	0
Danville	53.3%	6,052	45.6%	5,177	1.0%	119	0.0%	2
Dickenson	48.0%	2,377	51.6%	2,559	0.4%	18	0.1%	3
Dinwiddie	46.4%	3,168	51.6%	3,523	1.9%	131	0.1%	4
Emporia	48.6%	796	49.8%	815	1.6%	26	0.0%	0
Essex	48.7%	1,500	49.8%	1,533	1.5%	45	0.0%	0
Fairfax County	60.1%	163,667	38.0%	103,285	1.8%	4,907	0.1%	241
Fairfax	57.2%	3,865	40.7%	2,750	2.0%	132	0.1%	9
Falls Church	72.5%	3,138	25.5%	1,102	1.8%	77	0.2%	10
Fauquier	43.4%	7,746	53.3%	9,505	3.2%	576	0.1%	20
Floyd	44.4%	1,959	52.7%	2,324	2.9%	129	0.0%	0
Fluvanna	49.7%	3,592	47.8%	3,456	2.5%	178	0.0%	1
Franklin County	44.9%	7,017	52.2%	8,157	2.8%	441	0.0%	3
Franklin	57.5%	1,394	40.8%	988	1.7%	41	0.0%	0
Frederick	33.7%	6,027	59.8%	10,698	6.3%	1,125	0.1%	26
Fredericksburg	60.8%	2,611	36.4%	1,561	2.7%	118	0.1%	4
Galax	50.0%	730	47.5%	693	2.5%	36	0.0%	0
Giles	49.3%	2,570	48.1%	2,507	2.5%	132	0.1%	5
Gloucester	39.6%	3,985	56.6%	5,688	3.7%	373	0.1%	12
Goochland	42.4%	3,292	55.6%	4,313	1.9%	146	0.1%	5
Grayson	40.3%	1,875	58.3%	2,710	1.4%	66	0.0%	0
Greene	41.1%	1,846	56.3%	2,526	2.6%	115	0.0%	1
Greensville	55.8%	1,833	43.4%	1,424	0.8%	25	0.0%	1
Halifax	43.8%	3,931	54.5%	4,887	1.7%	149	0.1%	5
Hampton	63.8%	20,961	33.7%	11,078	2.5%	814	0.1%	25
Hanover	36.3%	12,784	61.5%	21,637	2.2%	770	0.1%	19
Harrisonburg	51.0%	3,539	46.8%	3,251	2.0%	138	0.2%	12
Henrico	53.2%	49,170	45.1%	41,619	1.6%	1,492	0.1%	78
Henry	50.8%	7,454	47.8%	7,004	1.4%	198	0.0%	3
Highland	39.5%	478	57.8%	700	2.6%	32	0.1%	1
Hopewell	45.1%	2,300	53.0%	2,705	1.8%	90	0.1%	4
Isle of Wight	45.7%	4,664	51.5%	5,262	2.8%	285	0.0%	4
James City	48.5%	10,205	48.0%	10,104	3.3%	704	0.1%	16
King and Queen	54.3%	1,114	43.7%	896	2.0%	40	0.0%	1
King George	43.0%	2,042	54.1%	2,569	2.8%	133	0.1%	5
King William	42.7%	1,951	54.9%	2,509	2.4%	108	0.0%	2
Lancaster	44.2%	2,043	53.3%	2,463	2.4%	113	0.1%	6
Lee	34.4%	2,453	65.0%	4,640	0.6%	42	0.0%	0
Lexington	64.6%	1,097	33.4%	567	1.9%	33	0.0%	0
Loudoun	51.6%	31,074	45.8%	27,539	2.5%	1,501	0.1%	65
Louisa	45.9%	3,716	51.7%	4,179	2.4%	193	0.0%	2
Lunenburg	45.3%	1,490	53.2%	1,749	1.5%	48	0.1%	2
Lynchburg	50.9%	8,329	47.1%	7,708	1.9%	308	0.2%	27
Madison	43.2%	1,672	54.4%	2,105	2.3%	90	0.1%	4
Manassas	46.2%	3,167	51.6%	3,532	2.1%	147	0.1%	4
Manassas Park	45.7%	650	52.8%	751	1.4%	20	0.1%	2
Martinsville	62.4%	2,363	36.4%	1,380	1.1%	43	0.1%	2
Mathews	40.7%	1,452	54.5%	1,946	4.8%	170	0.0%	0
Mecklenburg	42.8%	2,986	55.4%	3,864	1.9%	131	0.0%	0
Middlesex	40.2%	1,530	57.0%	2,167	2.7%	104	0.0%	1
Montgomery	55.4%	11,509	41.8%	8,670	2.7%	560	0.1%	19
Nelson	55.4%	2,755	42.5%	2,113	2.1%	102	0.0%	2
New Kent	40.4%	2,241	57.3%	3,179	2.3%	127	0.0%	2
Newport News	57.4%	21,743	39.9%	15,095	2.6%	992	0.1%	42
Norfolk	66.1%	27,791	30.7%	12,899	3.1%	1,290	0.1%	50
Northampton	60.8%	2,058	37.1%	1,256	2.2%	73	0.0%	0
Northumberland	44.3%	2,104	53.6%	2,548	2.0%	95	0.1%	6
Norton	44.9%	449	54.0%	539	1.1%	11	0.0%	0
Nottoway	49.9%	1,993	48.6%	1,942	1.5%	59	0.0%	0
Orange	45.5%	3,888	52.4%	4,481	2.1%	182	0.0%	0
Page	38.7%	2,385	58.2%	3,591	3.0%	185	0.1%	4
Patrick	41.7%	2,111	56.4%	2,853	1.8%	93	0.1%	4
Petersburg	81.8%	5,995	17.4%	1,274	0.8%	59	0.0%	2
Pittsylvania	37.7%	6,363	60.8%	10,252	1.5%	250	0.0%	6
Poquoson	34.2%	1,383	62.2%	2,515	3.5%	143	0.1%	3
Portsmouth	65.7%	16,314	31.9%	7,926	2.3%	560	0.1%	17
Powhatan	32.3%	2,744	65.6%	5,580	2.0%	170	0.1%	6
Prince Edward	52.1%	2,546	46.2%	2,259	1.7%	85	0.0%	1
Prince George	40.9%	3,382	57.5%	4,751	1.6%	130	0.0%	3
Prince William	49.9%	33,364	48.2%	32,178	1.8%	1,220	0.1%	35
Pulaski	46.5%	4,427	51.4%	4,901	2.1%	199	0.0%	0
Radford	54.2%	1,928	43.1%	1,534	2.6%	94	0.1%	2
Rappahannock	51.1%	1,397	47.0%	1,283	1.8%	50	0.1%	2
Richmond County	39.3%	863	58.8%	1,293	1.9%	42	0.0%	0
Richmond	75.9%	38,900	22.5%	11,529	1.5%	769	0.1%	40
Roanoke County	44.7%	14,125	52.8%	16,686	2.4%	755	0.1%	29
Roanoke	61.8%	14,207	35.9%	8,239	2.2%	505	0.1%	21
Rockbridge	46.1%	2,993	51.6%	3,354	2.2%	142	0.1%	5
Rockingham	32.4%	6,560	65.5%	13,262	2.0%	404	0.1%	19
Russell	43.9%	3,431	55.2%	4,314	0.9%	69	0.0%	0
Salem	47.1%	3,788	49.7%	3,993	3.0%	242	0.1%	12
Scott	26.2%	2,156	73.2%	6,016	0.5%	43	0.0%	0
Shenandoah	32.4%	3,996	63.9%	7,874	3.6%	438	0.1%	12
Smyth	36.7%	2,989	62.1%	5,053	1.1%	91	0.0%	2
Southampton	49.8%	2,442	48.0%	2,354	2.2%	110	0.0%	1
Spotsylvania	43.8%	11,061	54.0%	13,635	2.1%	533	0.2%	38
Stafford	43.6%	10,924	54.1%	13,559	2.2%	564	0.1%	28
Staunton	50.0%	3,384	46.0%	3,112	4.0%	270	0.0%	3
Suffolk	53.7%	10,480	43.9%	8,561	2.3%	456	0.1%	12
Surry	60.7%	1,480	37.7%	919	1.5%	37	0.1%	3
Sussex	54.5%	1,739	43.9%	1,401	1.5%	48	0.0%	0
Tazewell	40.8%	4,194	58.1%	5,970	1.0%	106	0.0%	4
Virginia Beach	48.6%	47,120	48.0%	46,471	3.3%	3,178	0.1%	120
Warren	40.3%	3,408	55.7%	4,705	3.9%	329	0.1%	9
Washington	33.9%	5,188	65.4%	10,009	0.7%	108	0.0%	5
Waynesboro	44.5%	2,223	51.9%	2,596	3.6%	181	0.0%	0
Westmoreland	52.3%	2,219	45.4%	1,924	2.2%	93	0.1%	3
Williamsburg	60.5%	1,782	36.7%	1,081	2.7%	80	0.0%	1
Winchester	45.1%	2,683	42.0%	2,497	12.8%	763	0.1%	8
Wise	38.2%	3,871	61.2%	6,190	0.6%	56	0.0%	5
Wythe	37.8%	3,125	59.9%	4,954	2.2%	185	0.1%	5
York	44.4%	8,142	52.1%	9,565	3.4%	620	0.1%	16

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

James City (no municipalities)
Rappahannock (largest city: Washington)
Virginia Beach (independent city)
Chesapeake (independent city)
Harrisonburg (independent city)
Prince William (largest borough: Manassas)
Staunton (independent city)
Loudoun (largest borough: Leesburg)
Fluvanna (largest borough: Lake Monticello)

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Appomattox (largest city: Appomattox)
Amherst (largest city: Amherst)
Bath (largest city: Hot Springs)
Buckingham (largest city: Dillwyn)
Charlotte (largest city: Keysville)
Craig (largest city: New Castle)
Cumberland (largest city: Farmville)
Dickenson (largest borough: Clintwood)
Dinwiddie (largest town: McKenney)
Essex (largest city: Tappahannock)
Emporia (independent city)
Franklin (largest city: Rocky Mount)
Halifax (largest city: South Boston)
Hopewell (independent city)
Isle of Wight (largest city: Smithfield)
Norton (independent city)
Salem (independent city)
Louisa (largest city: Louisa)
Lunenburg (largest city: Victoria)
Lee (largest city: Pennington Gap)
Northumberland (largest city: Heathsville)
Pulaski (largest city: Pulaski)
Russell (largest municipality: Lebanon)
Rockbridge (largest city: Lexington)
Smyth (largest city: Marion)
Tazewell (largest city: Richlands)
Wise (largest city: Big Stone Gap)

References

Virginia Department of Elections. (2016). "Registration/Turnout Statistics". The Commonwealth of Virginia.
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