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2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas

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FieldValue
election_name2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas
countryArkansas
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2008 United States Senate election in Arkansas
previous_year2008
next_election2020 United States Senate election in Arkansas
next_year2020
election_dateNovember 4, 2014
image1File:Tom Cotton, Official Portrait, 113th Congress small (cropped).jpeg
image_size150x150px
nominee1**Tom Cotton**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**478,819**
percentage1**56.50%**
image2File:Mark Pryor, Official Portrait, 112th Congress (2011) 1.jpg
nominee2Mark Pryor
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2334,174
percentage239.43%
map_image{{switcher
map_size210px
map_caption**Cotton:**
**Pryor:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionMark Pryor
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionTom Cotton
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

| [[File:2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas results map by county.svg|210px]] | County results | [[File:2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas results map by congressional district.svg|210px]] | Congressional district results Pryor:
The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election. After facing only Green Party opposition in 2008, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor sought re-election to a third term in 2014. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 56% to 39%. The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed.

This is the last time a Senator from Arkansas lost re-election. Since Cotton took office in 2015, Republicans have held both of Arkansas' Senate seats and the state's entire congressional delegation, both of which had not happened since 1877. Pryor drew many comparisons to Blanche Lincoln, also a Democratic senator from Arkansas who was ultimately unseated in 2010, with Pryor receiving a similar fate.

Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and remained so until the seating of Missouri’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress.

Background

Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history. Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were re-elected.

Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years. In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.

The election was originally thought to be extremely close, which was backed up by polling. Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points. Cotton's victory, along with other Republican victories in other statewide elections, solidified the state's shift towards the GOP.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Mark Pryor, incumbent U.S. Senator

Declined

  • Bobby Tullis, former state representative

Results

Republican primary

Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Candidates

Nominee

  • Tom Cotton, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2013–2015)

Declined

  • Rick Crawford, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 1st congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election)
  • Mark Darr, Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas (2011–2014)
  • Timothy Griffin, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (2011–2015) (running for Lieutenant Governor)
  • Steve Womack, U.S. Representative Arkansas's 3rd congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election)

Results

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

  • Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive
  • Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the state house in 2010

General election

Endorsements

  • Club for Growth
  • Tim Griffin, U.S. Representative
  • Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator
  • Allen West, former U.S. Representative
  • Steve Womack, U.S. Representative
  • Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania and candidate for President of the United States in 2012
  • Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 Republican presidential candidate
  • Arkansas Education Association
  • Bill Clinton, 42nd President of the United States

Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSpentCash on Hand
Mark Pryor (D)$10,428,246$12,034,784$364,653
Tom Cotton (R)$7,557,443$6,411,763$1,885,435

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMark
Pryor (D)Tom
Cotton (R)OtherUndecided
Basswood ResearchMarch 16–17, 2013600± 4%35%**43%**—22%
Basswood ResearchJune 22–23, 2013600± 4%**41%**40%—19%
Clark ResearchJuly 23–27, 2013729± 4%**43%**35%—21%
On Message Inc.July 29–30, 2013600± 4%42%**44%**—14%
Harper PollingAugust 4–5, 2013587± 4.04%41%**43%**—16%
Global Strategy GroupAugust 26–29, 2013501± ?%**47%**40%—13%
Harper PollingSeptember 24–26, 2013622± 3.93%**45%**42%—13%
Talk Business/Hendrix CollegeOctober 8, 2013603± 4%**42%**41%—17%
Public Policy PollingOctober 14–15, 2013955± 3.2%**44%**41%—15%
University of ArkansasOctober 10–17, 2013800± 3.5%**34%**32%—**34%**
Impact Management GroupOctober 24, 2013911± 3.2%41%**42%**—18%
Polling Company/WomanTrendDecember 6–7, 2013400± 4.9%41%**48%**—9%
Public Policy PollingDecember 13–15, 20131,004± 3.1%**44%****44%**—12%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 4–5, 2014500± 4.5%40%**45%**5%10%
Harper PollingJanuary 26–27, 2014533± 4.24%36%**42%**—22%
Impact Management GroupFebruary 10, 20141,202± 2.83%42%**46%**—13%
Hickman AnalyticsFebruary 17–20, 2014400± 4.9%39%**41%**8%12%
42%**51%**—8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove ResearchMarch 27 – April 2, 2014600± 4%**48%**45%—7%
Talk Business/Hendrix CollegeApril 3–4, 20141,068± 3%**46%**43%4%8%
Opinion Research AssociatesApril 1–8, 2014400± 5%**48%**38%—8%
Harper PollingApril 9–10, 2014522± 4.29%**39%****39%**—22%
New York Times/Kaiser FamilyApril 8–15, 2014857± 4%**46%**36%4%15%
Magellan StrategiesApril 14–15, 2014857± 3.35%43%**46%**4%7%
Public Policy PollingApril 25–27, 2014840± 3.4%**43%**42%—16%
NBC News/MaristApril 30 – May 4, 2014876± 3.3%**51%**40%1%3%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 27–28, 2014750± 4%43%**47%**4%6%
Public Opinion StrategiesMay 27–29, 2014500± 4.39%41%**46%**—13%
Fabrizio LeeJune 3–5, 2014600± 4%43%**51%**—5%
Magellan StrategiesJune 4–5, 2014755± 3.57%45%**49%**2%4%
Impact Management GroupJune 29, 20141290± 2.72%43%**47%**—10%
Gravis MarketingJuly 7–8, 2014987± 3%44%**51%**5%—
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20141,628± 2.9%45%**49%**1%5%
Anzalone Liszt Grove ResearchJuly 20–24, 2014600± 4%**48%**46%—6%
Talk Business/Hendrix CollegeJuly 22–25, 20141,780± 2.3%42%**44%**7%7%
Public Policy PollingAugust 1–3, 20141,066± 3%39%**41%**7%14%
41%**43%**—16%
Opinion Research AssociatesAugust 6–14, 2014414± 4.9%**46%**41%4%9%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 25–26, 2014750± 4%**44%**43%6%6%
ccAdvertisingAugust 31 – September 1, 20141,735± ?29%**37%**—34%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18 – September 2, 20141,572± 3%39%**43%**2%16%
CNN/ORC InternationalAugust 28 – September 2, 2014523 LV± 4.5%47%**49%**—4%
839 RV± 3.5%**47%**38%—14%
Hickman AnalyticsAugust 26 – September 3, 2014700± 3.7%**45%**43%—12%
NBC News/MaristSeptember 2–4, 2014639 LV± 3.9%40%**45%**6%9%
1,068 RV± 3%**41%****41%**8%11%
Answers UnlimitedSeptember 7–9, 2014600± 3.5%**46%**42%4%8%
Gravis MarketingSeptember 8–11, 2014902± 4%43%**47%**2%8%
Hickman AnalyticsSeptember 13–18, 2014801± 3.5%**46%**43%—11%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 18–21, 20141,453± 2.6%38%**43%**6%13%
39%**45%**—15%
SuffolkSeptember 20–23, 2014500± 4.4%**45%**43%5%7%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 24–25, 2014750± 4%40%**47%**5%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20 – October 1, 20141,991± 2%41%**45%**1%13%
Opinion Research AssociatesOctober 1–5, 2014400± 5%**45%**42%5%9%
Fox NewsOctober 4–7, 2014707± 3.5%39%**46%**5%11%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 13–15, 2014940± 3%44%**47%**4%5%
Talk Business/HendrixOctober 15–16, 20142,075± 2.2%40.5%**49%**5%6%
NBC News/MaristOctober 19–23, 2014621± 3.9%43%**45%**6%7%
971± 3.1%**43%**42%6%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20141,567± 4%42%**47%**1%10%
Opinion Research AssociatesOctober 25–26, 2014401± 5%**45%**44%2%10%
Issues & Answers NetworkOctober 21–27, 2014568± 4.1%36%**49%**—15%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 27–29, 2014967± 3%44%**51%**4%2%
Public Policy PollingOctober 30 – November 1, 20141,092± 3%41%**49%**4%5%
45%**51%**—4%
Opinion Research AssociatesOctober 30 – November 1, 2014400± 5%**45%**43%4%8%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Craighead (Largest city: Jonesboro)
  • Cross (Largest city: Wynne)
  • Greene (Largest city: Paragould)
  • Hot Spring (Largest city: Malvern)
  • Izard (Largest city: Horseshoe Bend)
  • Arkansas (Largest city: Stuttgart)
  • Calhoun (Largest city: Hampton)
  • Cleburne (Largest city: Heber Springs)
  • Cleveland (Largest city: Rison)
  • Columbia (Largest city: Magnolia)
  • Conway (Largest city: Morrilton)
  • Faulkner (Largest city: Conway)
  • Franklin (Largest city: Ozark)
  • Fulton (Largest city: Salem)
  • Garland (Largest city: Hot Springs)
  • Grant (Largest city: Sheridan)
  • Independence (Largest city: Batesville)
  • Johnson (Largest city: Clarksville)
  • Logan (Largest city: Booneville)
  • Lonoke (Largest city: Cabot)
  • Madison (Largest city: Huntsville)
  • Marion (Largest city: Bull Shoals)
  • Miller (Largest city: Texarkana)
  • Montgomery (Largest city: Mount Ida)
  • Perry (Largest city: Perryville)
  • Pike (Largest city: Glenwood)
  • Pope (Largest city: Russellville)
  • Prairie (Largest city: Des Arc)
  • Saline (Largest city: Benton)
  • Scott (Largest city: Waldron)
  • Sevier (Largest city: De Queen)
  • Sharp (Largest city: Cherokee Village)
  • Stone (Largest city: Mountain View)
  • Union (Largest city: El Dorado)
  • Van Buren (Largest city: Clinton)
  • Washington (Largest city: Fayetteville)
  • White (Largest city: Searcy)
  • Yell (Largest city: Dardanelle)
  • Baxter (Largest city: Mountain Home)
  • Boone (Largest city: Harrison)
  • Carroll (Largest city: Berryville)
  • Newton (Largest city: Jasper)
  • Polk (Largest city: Mena)
  • Benton (Largest city: Rogers)
  • Crawford (Largest city: Van Buren)
  • Searcy (Largest city: Marshall)
  • Sebastian (Largest city: Fort Smith)
  • Clay (largest city: Piggott)
  • Hempstead (largest city: Hope)
  • Lawrence (largest city: Walnut Ridge)
  • Poinsett (largest city: Harrisburg)
  • Randolph (largest city: Pocahontas)
  • Drew (Largest city: Monticello)
  • Ashley (Largest city: Crossett)
  • Lafayette (Largest city: Stamps)
  • Nevada (Largest city: Prescott)
  • Dallas (Largest city: Fordyce)
  • Bradley (largest city: Warren)
  • Jackson (largest city: Newport)
  • Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
  • Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
  • Howard (Largest city: Nashville)

By congressional district

Cotton won all four congressional districts.

DistrictPryorCottonRepresentative
40%**56%**Rick Crawford
45%**51%**French Hill
32%**63%**Steve Womack
40%**56%**Bruce Westerman

References

References

  1. (4 November 2014). "November 4, 2014 Arkansas General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election OFFICIAL RESULTS".
  2. Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas".
  3. (November 7, 2008). "Blog Archive » Rebekah Kennedy Pulls Record Results for U.S. Senate - America's #1 Source for Green Party News & Views". Green Party Watch.
  4. Ostermeier, Eric. (August 5, 2013). "Mark Pryor Could Face Historic Defeat in 2014". Smart Politics.
  5. Ostermeier, Eric. (March 20, 2013). "Tom Cotton's Quandary: Can House Freshmen Win Senate Seats?". Smart Politics.
  6. Ostermeier, Eric. (November 17, 2014). "Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?". Smart Politics.
  7. Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas".
  8. (April 19, 2012). "Sen. Mark Pryor is running for re-election in 2014". Arkansas Times.
  9. (July 31, 2013). "D.C. GOP can't get a pulse on Arkansas". Natural State Report.
  10. Glueck, Katie. (July 31, 2013). "Arkansas's Tom Cotton to run for U.S. Senate". Politico.
  11. (November 12, 2012). "Democrat Mark Pryor seen as likely GOP target in '14". Arkansas Online.
  12. DeMillo, Andrew. (August 13, 2013). "Mark Darr Announces Run for Arkansas' 4th District Seat". [[Arkansas Business Publishing Group.
  13. "Griffin Wins Seat on Ways and Means Committee, Will Not Seek Higher Office in 2014".
  14. Saylor, Ryan. (August 7, 2013). "Democrats, Republicans React To Cotton, Changing Political Landscape". Talk Business Arkansas.
  15. (March 3, 2014). "Candidates who filed for office in Arkansas". sfgate.com.
  16. Trygstad, Kyle. "Club for Growth Backs Mark Pryor Challenger". Roll Call.
  17. Leary, Alex. "Rubio endorses Tom Cotton in Arkansas Senate race". Tampa Bay Times.
  18. Kubin, Jacquie. "Allen West Guardian Fund 2014: Endorsing tomorrow's leaders". The Washington Times.
  19. (April 22, 2014). "Rick Santorum and Patriot Voices PAC Announce Endorsements in Four Key U.S. Senate Races". Patriot Voices.
  20. (June 13, 2014). "Political Note: Romney Endorses Cotton". Time Record Online Edition.
  21. Brantley, Max. (April 25, 2014). "UPDATE: Arkansas Education Association to endorse Mark Pryor. And, boy, did he go after Cotton today on Medicare, Social Security". Arkansas Times.
  22. "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014".
  23. "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks".
  24. "2014 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  25. "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics.
  26. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/basswood-r-club-for-growth-senate-conservatives-fund-17171 Basswood Research]
  27. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/basswood-r-senate-conservatives-fund-17608 Basswood Research]
  28. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/158212312/AR-Sen-Clark-Research-for-AFSCME-July-2013 Clark Research]
  29. [https://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/gop-poll-tom-cotton-has-edge-over-mark-pryor-95427.html On Message Inc.]
  30. [https://web.archive.org/web/20130809053436/http://conservativeintel.com/86-conservative-intel-poll-of-arsen/ Harper Polling]
  31. [http://talkbusiness.net/2013/09/cook-mark-pryor-leads-tom-cotton-in-new-poll/ Global Strategy Group]
  32. [https://images.politico.com/global/2013/10/14/arkansas.html Harper Polling]
  33. [http://talkbusiness.net/2013/10/poll-pryor-cotton-in-tight-race-already/ Talk Business/Hendrix College]
  34. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/SenatePollsOctober2013Memo.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  35. [https://web.archive.org/web/20131102204305/http://plsc.uark.edu/2013_Arkansas_Poll_News_Release.doc University of Arkansas]
  36. [https://web.archive.org/web/20140223123752/http://www.thecitywire.com/sites/default/files/oct2013impactgenelectionsurvey.pdf Impact Management Group]
  37. [https://www.politico.com/story/2013/12/poll-mark-pryor-trails-tom-cotton-arkansas-senate-2014-100916.html Polling Company/WomanTrend]
  38. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/ArkansasPollMemo.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  39. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/arkansas/election_2014_arkansas_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  40. [https://images.politico.com/global/2014/02/06/ac_1401_ar_toplines.html Harper Polling]
  41. [https://web.archive.org/web/20140223125542/http://www.thecitywire.com/sites/default/files/impact_management_group_feb_2014_statewide_poll.pdf Impact Management Group]
  42. [https://images.politico.com/global/2014/03/09/hai_arkansas-topline-tables.html Hickman Analytics]
  43. [https://images.politico.com/global/2014/04/14/summary_--_ar_statewide_poll_april_2014.html Anzalone Liszt Grove Research]
  44. [http://talkbusiness.net/2014/04/pryor-holds-small-lead-cotton-high-profile-u-s-senate-race/ Talk Business/Hendrix College]
  45. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/217489671/AR-Sen-AR-Gov-Opinion-Research-Associates-Apr-2014 Opinion Research Associates]
  46. [http://www.americancrossroads.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/AC-14.04-AR-Toplines.pdf Harper Polling]
  47. [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/04/23/upshot/24upshot-south-poll.html New York Times/Kaiser Family]
  48. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Magellan_Arkansas_0414.pdf Magellan Strategies]
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  52. [https://images.politico.com/global/2014/06/10/6-14_ar_summary_memo.html Fabrizio Lee]
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  59. Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
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  66. [http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/maristarkansassept.pdf NBC News/Marist]
  67. Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1%
  68. [https://web.archive.org/web/20140917133548/http://www.southernprogressfund.org/2014/09/new-statewide-poll/ Answers Unlimited]
  69. Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  70. [http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/telephone-survey-arkansas-political-poll/ Gravis Marketing]
  71. Nathan LaFrance (L)
  72. [https://images.politico.com/global/2014/09/21/9_19_14_d2.html Hickman Analytics]
  73. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_922.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  74. Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  75. [http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/9_24_2014_marginals.pdf Suffolk] {{Webarchive. link. (September 25, 2014)
  76. [http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  77. [http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2014-mark-pryor-poll-lead-tom-cotton/ Opinion Research Associates] {{Webarchive. link. (October 10, 2014)
  78. [http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/08/fox-news-poll-gop-candidate-cotton-up-7-points-over-dem-sen-pryor-in-arkansas/ Fox News]
  79. Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1%
  80. [http://talkbusiness.net/2014/10/tbp-hendrix-poll-cotton-up-8-points-on-pryor-in-senate-race/ Talk Business/Hendrix]
  81. Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  82. [http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1026-arkansas-cotton-and-pryor-in-tight-match-in-u-s-senate-contest-hutchinson-and-ross-closely-paired-in-governors-race/ NBC News/Marist]
  83. Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
  84. [http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/DPAORCPollMemo2526.pdf Opinion Research Associates]
  85. Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1%
  86. [https://web.archive.org/web/20141107062221/http://plsc.uark.edu/2014-Arkansas-Poll-summary-report-final.pdf Issues & Answers Network]
  87. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/ARResults.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  88. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/245310596/AR-Sen-AR-Gov-Opinion-Research-Associates-for-Arkansas-Citizens-First-Congress-Nov-2014 Opinion Research Associates]
  89. Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  90. "November 4, 2014 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State.
  91. "Our Campaigns - AR US Senate Race - Nov 04, 2014".
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