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2014 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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FieldValue
election_name2014 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
countryNew Hampshire
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
previous_year2012
next_election2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
next_year2016
election_date
image1File:Maggie Hassan, official portrait, 115th Congress (cropped).jpg
image_sizex150px
nominee1**Maggie Hassan**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**254,666**
percentage1**52.37%**
image2File:14th Company Classmates at Naval Academy (cropped).jpg
nominee2Walt Havenstein
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2229,610
percentage247.43%
map{{switcher
map_caption**Hassan:**
**Havenstein:**
titleGovernor
before_electionMaggie Hassan
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionMaggie Hassan
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

|x245px |County results |x245px |Municipality results |x245px |Congressional district results}} Havenstein:
The 2014 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of New Hampshire, concurrently with the election to New Hampshire's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic governor Maggie Hassan ran for re-election to a second term in office. She defeated the Republican nominee, businessman Walt Havenstein. As of , this is the last time a Democrat was elected Governor of New Hampshire.

Hassan would retire in 2016 to run successfully for the Senate.

Background

Incumbent Democratic governor John Lynch decided to retire in 2012, rather than seek re-election to a fifth term in office. The Democratic nominee, former State Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan, defeated the Republican nominee, attorney and 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide M. Lamontagne, 55% to 43%.

New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years. On only one occasion since 1924 has a first-term governor of New Hampshire been defeated for re-election to a second term: in 2004, when Lynch beat incumbent Republican governor Craig Benson.

Hassan had high approval ratings. An April 2014 WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll found that 57% of registered voters approved of the job she was doing, 58% had a favorable opinion of her, and 70% thought the state was going in the right direction. For these reasons, Hassan was not considered vulnerable going into the election. The Cook Political Report, Daily Kos Elections, Governing and Sabato's Crystal Ball all considered the race "likely Democratic" and RealClearPolitics and The Rothenberg Political Report rated the race "safe Democratic".

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Ian Freeman, radio show host
  • Maggie Hassan, incumbent governor
  • Clecia Terrio, candidate for the State House in 2012

Hassan won the Democratic Party primary, held on September 9, 2014, with 94.3% of the votes cast.

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Daniel J. Greene
  • Walt Havenstein, businessman
  • Andrew Hemingway, businessman, Tea Party activist and candidate for Chairman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee in 2013
  • Jonathan Smolin

Havenstein won the Republican Party primary, held on September 9, 2014, with 55.6% of the votes cast.

Declined

  • William Harrison Binnie, industrialist, investment banker and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010
  • Jeb Bradley, Majority Leader of the New Hampshire Senate and former U.S. representative
  • Brad Cook, attorney
  • Jeanie Forrester, state senator
  • Ted Gatsas, Mayor of Manchester
  • Frank Guinta, former U.S. representative (ran for NH-01)
  • Gary Lambert, former state senator (ran for NH-02)
  • George Lambert, state representative
  • Ovide Lamontagne, businessman, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and nominee for governor in 1996 and 2012
  • Chuck Morse, state senator
  • Bob Odell, state senator
  • John Reagan, state senator
  • Chuck Rolecek, businessman and candidate for the Executive Council of New Hampshire in 2012
  • Andy Sanborn, state senator
  • Kevin H. Smith, conservative activist, former state representative and candidate for governor in 2012
  • John Stephen, former Commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Health & Human Services and nominee for governor in 2010
  • Christopher Sununu, Executive Councillor, son of former governor John H. Sununu and brother of former U.S. senator John E. Sununu (ran for re-election)
  • John E. Sununu, former U.S. senator

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBill
BinnieTed
GatsasDaniel
GreeneWalt
HavensteinAndrew
HemingwayGeorge
LambertChuck
MorseJonathan
SmolinOtherUndecided
SuffolkJune 14–18, 2014419±4.8%——3.82%**12.89%**6.92%——1.67%—**74.7%**
Vox Populi PollingMay 14–15, 2014?±5.2%———**12%****12%**————**76%**
SuffolkFeb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014426± ?8.45%**15.02%**——1.88%1.88%7.04%——**65.72%**

Results

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Walt
Havenstein (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 1–3, 20141,690± 2.4%**51%**46%—3%
WMUR/UNHOctober 29–November 2, 2014757± 3.6%**47%**43%1%9%
New England CollegeOctober 31–November 1, 20141,526± 2.51%**51%**44%2%3%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 29–30, 2014940± 3%**51%**42%—7%
Vox Populi PollingOctober 27–28, 2014638± 3.9%44%**47%**—7%
WMUR/UNHOctober 19–22, 2014555± 4.2%**52%**37%1%11%
American Research GroupOctober 19–22, 2014600± 4%**48%**46%—6%
New England CollegeOctober 24, 20141,132± 2.91%**47%****47%**2%4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20141,042± 4%**47%**38%1%13%
American Research GroupOctober 19–22, 2014600± 4%**53%**43%—4%
Public Policy PollingOctober 20–21, 2014764± ?**53%**43%—4%
CNN/ORCOctober 18–21, 2014645 LV± 4%**51%**45%—4%
877 RV± 3.5%**54%**40%—5%
UMass LowellOctober 15–21, 2014643 LV± 4.5%**49%**45%—7%
900 RV± 3.8%**49%**40%—11%
Suffolk/Boston HeraldOctober 16–19, 2014500± ?**49%**39%—11%
New England CollegeOctober 16, 2014921± 3.23%**51%**43%3%4%
New England CollegeOctober 9, 20141,081± 2.98%**49%**44%3%5%
High Point UniversityOctober 4–8, 2014824± 3.4%**50%**42%4%4%
WMUR/UNHSeptember 29–October 5, 2014532± 4.2%**46%**36%2%16%
New England CollegeOctober 3, 20141,286± 2.73%**51%**41%3%4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20–October 1, 20141,260± 3%**49%**39%0%12%
New England CollegeSeptember 26, 20141,331± 2.69%**48%**44%3%5%
American Research GroupSeptember 27–29, 2014600± 4%**55%**40%—5%
New England CollegeSeptember 19–20, 20141,494± 2.54%**52%**40%4%5%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 18–19, 2014652± 3.8%**52%**43%—4%
Vox Populi PollingSeptember 15–16, 2014550± 4.2%**47%**43%—10%
American Research GroupSeptember 12–15, 2014544± 4.2%**48%**40%—12%
New England CollegeSeptember 10–11, 2014630± 3.98%**51%**36%4%9%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 10–11, 2014750± 4%**51%**40%3%6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18–September 2, 20141,159± 4%**51%**34%3%13%
WMUR/UNHAugust 7–17, 2014609± 4%**49%**32%1%18%
National Research/RGAAugust 10–13, 2014600± 4%**42%**37%1%18%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20141,246± 2.9%**53%**38%2%7%
WMUR/UNHJune 19–July 1, 2014669± 3.8%**58%**29%1%10%
Suffolk/Boston HeraldJune 14–18, 2014800± 3.5%**51%**19%3%28%
American Research GroupJune 14–18, 2014540± 4.2%**45%**32%—23%
Vox Populi PollingMay 14–15, 2014707± 3.6%**43%**30%—27%
Rockefeller CenterApril 21–25, 2014412± 4.8%**40%**19%—**41%**
WMUR/UNHApril 1–9, 2014387± 5%**49%**19%2%30%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Bill
Binnie (R)OtherUndecided
Suffolk/Boston HeraldFeb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014800± 3.5%**55%**26%—20%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 9–12, 20141,354± 2.7%**51%**31%—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Jeb
Bradley (R)OtherUndecided
New England CollegeMay 2–5, 2013807± 3.27%**55%**24%—22%
Public Policy PollingApril 19–21, 2013933± 3.2%**52%**38%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Brad
Cook (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 13–16, 20131,038± 3%**49%**34%—17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Ted
Gatsas (R)OtherUndecided
WMUR/UNHApril 1–9, 2014387± 5%**50%**27%1%23%
Suffolk/Boston HeraldFeb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014800± 3.5%**53%**28%—19%
WMUR/UNHJanuary 21–26, 2014584± 4.1%**45%**34%2%19%
New England CollegeOctober 7–9, 20131,063± 3%**53%**25%—22%
Public Policy PollingApril 19–21, 2013933± 3.2%**51%**35%—15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Daniel
Greene (R)OtherUndecided
Suffolk/Boston HeraldJune 14–18, 2014800± 3.5%**53%**13%4%31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Frank
Guinta (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingApril 19–21, 2013933± 3.2%**54%**36%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Andrew
Hemingway (R)OtherUndecided
WMUR/UNHAugust 7–17, 2014609± 4%**51%**31%1%17%
WMUR/UNHJune 19–July 1, 2014669± 3.8%**54%**28%0%18%
Suffolk/Boston HeraldJune 14–18, 2014800± 3.5%**51%**17%3%29%
Vox Populi PollingMay 14–15, 2014707± 3.6%**42%**31%—27%
Hickman AnalyticsApril 24–30, 2014400± 4.9%**50%**28%—22%
Rockefeller CenterApril 21–25, 2014412± 4.8%**40%**20%—**40%**
WMUR/UNHApril 1–9, 2014387± 5%**49%**22%1%28%
American Research GroupMarch 13–16, 2014533± 4.2%**45%**30%—25%
Suffolk/Boston HeraldFeb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014800± 3.5%**56%**23%—21%
WMUR/UNHJanuary 21–26, 2014584± 4.1%**48%**27%2%22%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 9–12, 20141,354± 2.7%**51%**25%—23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)George
Lambert (R)OtherUndecided
Suffolk/Boston HeraldFeb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014800± 3.5%**55%**22%—23%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 9–12, 20141,354± 2.7%**50%**26%—23%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 13–16, 20131,038± 3%**49%**32%—20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Chuck
Morse (R)OtherUndecided
Suffolk/Boston HeraldFeb. 27–Mar. 5, 2014800± 3.5%**56%**23%—21%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 9–12, 20141,354± 2.7%**50%**27%—22%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 13–16, 20131,038± 3%**49%**33%—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Andy
Sanborn (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 13–16, 20131,038± 3%**49%**32%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Kevin
Smith (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingApril 19–21, 2013933± 3.2%**52%**32%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Jonathan
Smolin (R)OtherUndecided
Suffolk/Boston HeraldJune 14–18, 2014800± 3.5%**52%**15%3%31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMaggie
Hassan (D)Christopher T.
Sununu (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingApril 19–21, 2013933± 3.2%**53%**37%—10%

Results

By county

2014 Senate election results in New Hampshire (by county)CountyMaggie Hassan
DemocraticWalt Havenstein
RepublicanOther votes#%#%#%
Belknap11,06946.7%**12,603****53.1%**410.2%
Carroll**10,332****50.0%**10,31649.9%320.2%
Cheshire**16,440****60.6%**10,61139.1%730.3%
Coös**6,429****60.7%**4,15139.2%150.1%
Grafton**20,155****60.9%**12,88438.9%690.2%
Hillsborough67,52549.0%**70,041****50.8%**3270.2%
Merrimack**32,365****56.7%**24,60843.1%1270.2%
Rockingham57,74348.7%**60,538****51.1%**1700.1%
Strafford**24,032****57.0%**18,02642.8%980.2%
Sullivan**8,576****55.6%**6,83244.3%240.2%

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

  • Belknap (largest city: Laconia)
  • Hillsborough (largest municipality: Manchester)
  • Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)

By congressional district

Hassan won both congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.

DistrictHassanHavensteinRepresentative
**50.86%**49.14%Frank Guinta
**54.11%**45.89%Annie Kuster

References

References

  1. (July 31, 2013). "Poll: Job approval ratings rise for Hassan". WMUR.
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  85. [https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/6_19_2014_marginals.pdf Suffolk/Boston Herald] {{Webarchive. link. (June 20, 2014)
  86. [http://nhjournal.com/2014/05/06/poll-for-pro-keystone-group-shows-shaheen-brown-in-statistical-tie/ Hickman Analytics]
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  88. "Governor - 2014 General Election". Dave Leip's Atlas.
  89. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".
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