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2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico

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2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico

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FieldValue
election_name2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico
countryNew Mexico
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2006 United States Senate election in New Mexico
previous_year2006
next_election2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
next_year2018
election_date
image_sizex150px
image1Martin Heinrich, official portrait, 112th Congress crop.jpg
nominee1**Martin Heinrich**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**395,717**
percentage1**51.01%**
image2Heather Wilson official portrait (cropped).jpg
nominee2Heather Wilson
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2351,259
percentage245.28%
map_image
map_size230px
map_caption**Heinrich**:
**Wilson**:
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionJeff Bingaman
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionMartin Heinrich
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Wilson:
The 2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a sixth term. Democratic U.S. Representative Martin Heinrich won the open seat.

Background

Incumbent Jeff Bingaman won re-election to a fifth term with 70.61% of the vote against Allen McCulloch in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in New Mexico.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Hector Balderas, state auditor
  • Martin Heinrich, U.S. Representative

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorHector
BalderasMartin
HeinrichOtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 23–26, 2011400± 4.9%24%**47%**29%
Magellan StrategiesJuly 17–18, 2011636± 3.9%21%**54%**25%
Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011309± 5.6%30%**47%**23%
Public Policy PollingApril 19–22, 2012270± 6%27%**51%**22%
Albuquerque Journal/Research & PollingMay 21–24, 2012741± 3.6%26%**51%**23%

Endorsements

Federal officials

  • Raúl Grijalva, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district

State officials

  • Patricia Madrid, former Attorney General

New Mexico state senators

  • Dede Feldman
  • Tim Keller
  • Cisco McSorley
  • Jerry Ortiz y Pino

New Mexico state representatives

  • Eliseo Alcon
  • Eleanor Chavez
  • Joni Guiterrez
  • Bill O'Neill
  • Danice Picraux
  • Jeff Steinborn
  • Mimi Stewart
  • J. Paul Taylor

New Mexico Mayors

  • David Coss, Mayor of Santa Fe
  • Joe Maestas, former Mayor of Española
  • Bob Rosebrough, former Mayor of Gallup

Unions

  • American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
  • International Association of Machinists
  • International Brotherhood of Teamsters
  • New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council
  • New Mexico Communication Workers for America
  • Service Employees International Union
  • United Food and Commercial Workers
  • United Steelworkers of America
  • United Transportation Union

Organizations

  • Council for a Livable World
  • Defenders of Wildlife
  • League of Conservation Voters
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America
  • National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
  • Planned Parenthood
  • Sierra Club

State officials

  • Diane Denish, former New Mexico Lieutenant Governor

New Mexico state senators

  • Carlos Cisneros
  • Phil Griego
  • Richard Martinez
  • Cynthia Nava
  • Mary Kay Papen
  • Bernadette Sanchez
  • David Ulibarri

New Mexico state representatives

  • Joseph Cervantes
  • Mary Helen Garcia
  • Miguel Garcia
  • Thomas Garcia
  • Antonio Lujan
  • Jim Trujillo
  • Lucky Varela

New Mexico Mayors

  • Steve Brockett, former Mayor of Alamogordo
  • Darren Cordova, Mayor of Taos
  • Danny Cruz, Mayor of Springer
  • Tony Jaramillo, Mayor of Socorro
  • Robert Vialpando, Mayor of Los Lunas

Results

Results by county

| | | | | | ]]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Greg Sowards, businessman
  • Heather Wilson, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008

Withdrew

  • Bill English, businessman
  • John Sanchez, Lieutenant Governor of New Mexico and nominee for governor in 2002

Declined

  • Janice Arnold-Jones, former state representative
  • Gary Johnson, former governor (ran for President)
  • Steve Pearce, U.S. Representative, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000, and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBill
EnglishJohn
SanchezGreg
SowardsHeather
WilsonOtherUndecided
Magellan StrategiesApril 26–27, 2011801± 3.5%17%2%**59%**11%11%
Public Policy PollingJune 23–26, 2011400± 4.9%4%24%8%**52%**12%
Magellan StrategiesJuly 17–18, 2011799± 3.5%2%21%5%**56%**16%
Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011300± 5.7%3%20%6%**55%**16%
Albuquerque JournalMay 21–24, 2012504± 4.4%20%**66%**14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBill
EnglishGary
JohnsonJohn
SanchezGreg
SowardsHeather
WilsonOtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011300± 5.7%1%31%15%3%**42%**9%

Endorsements

Federal officials

  • Pete Domenici, former U.S. Senator (R-NM)
  • Ari Fleischer, former White House Press Secretary for George W. Bush
  • Manuel Lujan Jr., former U.S. Secretary of the Interior and former U.S. Representative for
  • Bill Redmond, former U.S. Representative for

State officials

  • John Sanchez, lieutenant governor
  • Jack Stahl, former lieutenant governor

New Mexico state senators

  • Rod Adair
  • Vernon Asbill
  • Sue Wilson Beffort
  • Mark Boitano
  • Bill Burt
  • Clint Harden
  • Stuart Ingle, Minority Leader
  • Gay Kernan
  • Carroll Leavell
  • Steven Neville
  • Bill Payne, Minority Whip
  • Sander Rue
  • John Ryan
  • Bill Sharer

New Mexico state representatives

  • Tom Anderson
  • Alonzo Baldonado
  • Paul Bandy
  • Don Bratton
  • David Chavez
  • Zachary Cook
  • Anna Crook
  • Bill Gray
  • Jim Hall
  • Dave Doyle
  • Nora Espinoza
  • Nate Gentry
  • Jimmie Hall
  • Conrad James
  • Larry Larranaga
  • Tim Lewis
  • Dianne Miller Hamilton
  • Cathryn Novich-Brown
  • Jane Powdrell-Culbert
  • Bill Rehm
  • Dennis Roch
  • Jim Smith
  • James Strickler
  • Tom Taylor, Minority Leader
  • Don Tripp
  • Shirley Tyler
  • James White
  • Bob Wooley

New Mexico Mayors

  • Richard J. Berry, Mayor of Albuquerque
  • Scott Eckstein, Mayor of Bloomfield and Commissioner of San Juan County
  • Louis Huning, former Mayor of Los Lunas
  • Gary Kanin, former Mayor of Corrales
  • Bryan Olguin, Mayor of Peralta
  • Tommy Roberts, Mayor of Farmington
  • Bill Standley, former Mayor of Farmington

Results

Results by county:

]]

General election

Candidates

  • Jon Barrie (Independent American Party), alternative medicine practitioner and Air Force veteran
  • Martin Heinrich (D), U.S. Representative
  • Heather Wilson (R), former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Martin Heinrich (D)$3,883,992$2,174,712$1,763,753$89,424
Heather Wilson (R)$4,048,847$2,416,328$1,632,517$0
Jon Barrie (I)$705$1,150$0$445
Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Martin HeinrichContributionHeather WilsonContribution
League of Conservation Voters$108,634Elliott Management Corporation$29,413
JStreetPAC$67,860Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
University of New Mexico$24,221Kelly PAC$15,000
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP$23,000Blue Cross & Blue Shield$14,050
Council for a Livable World$20,044Devon Energy$13,250
National Rural Letter Carriers' Association$19,000Murray Energy$12,800
Comcast Corporation$11,250Yates Petroleum$12,600
Presbyterian Healthcare Services$11,150Livingston Group$12,249
Intel Corp$10,500Publix Super Markets$11,000
American Optometric Association$10,250Westport Construction$10,500

Top industries

Martin HeinrichContributionHeather WilsonContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms$322,120Retired$355,880
Retired$270,598Oil & Gas$217,500
Lobbyists$156,480Leadership PACs$206,225
Environmental organizations$145,365Financial Institutions$163,888
Leadership PACs$100,000Lobbyists$113,549
Health Professionals$95,729Lawyers/Law Firms$106,852
Pro-Israel$83,860Real Estate$95,990
Public Sector Unions$67,000Misc Finance$72,407
Democratic/Liberal$64,300Business Services$72,078
Casinos/Gambling$58,550Mining$69,200

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMartin
Heinrich (D)Heather
Wilson (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%**50%**39%11%
Public Policy PollingJune 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%**47%**42%11%
Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%**47%**40%13%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 14, 2012500± 4.5%**45%**43%5%7%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 3, 2012500± 4.5%**46%**42%7%6%
Public Policy PollingApril 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%**48%**43%9%
Public Policy PollingJuly 13–16, 2012724± 3.6%**48%**43%9%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 21, 2012500± 4.5%**48%**41%5%7%
Albuquerque JournalSeptember 3–6, 2012667± 3.8%**49%**42%8%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 7–9, 20121,122± 2.9%**50%**41%9%
We Ask AmericaSeptember 25–27, 20121,258± 2.85%**52%**41%7%
Public Policy PollingOctober 2–3, 2012778± n/a%**51%**41%8%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 8, 2012500± 4.5%**52%**39%4%5%
Albuquerque Poll JournalOctober 9–11, 2012658± 3.8%**48%**39%4%9%
Public Policy PollingOctober 23–24, 2012727± n/a%**52%**44%3%
Albuquerque Poll JournalOctober 23–25, 2012662± 3.8%**50%**42%3%6%

with Jeff Bingaman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJeff
Bingaman (D)Gary
Johnson (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%**51%**40%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJeff
Bingaman (D)Steve
Pearce (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%**57%**34%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJeff
Bingaman (D)Heather
Wilson (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%**56%**37%9%

with Hector Balderas

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorHector
Balderas (D)Gary
Johnson (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%38%**44%**19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorHector
Balderas (D)Greg
Sowards (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%**42%**28%30%
Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%**44%**30%27%
Public Policy PollingApril 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%**42%**30%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorHector
Balderas (D)Heather
Wilson (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%**45%**39%16%
Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%**43%****43%**14%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 14, 2012500± 4.5%**44%****44%**3%9%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 3, 2012500± 4.5%42%**43%**5%9%
Public Policy PollingApril 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%**44%**43%12%

with Ben Ray Luján

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBen Ray
Luján (D)Gary
Johnson (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%40%**45%**9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBen Ray
Luján (D)Steve
Pearce (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%**49%**37%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBen Ray
Luján (D)Heather
Wilson (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%**48%**40%12%

with Martin Heinrich

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMartin
Heinrich (D)Gary
Johnson (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%43%**44%**14%
Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%**43%****43%**14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMartin
Heinrich (D)Steve
Pearce (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%**53%**38%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMartin
Heinrich (D)Greg
Sowards (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%**46%**34%20%
Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%**49%**31%20%
Public Policy PollingApril 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%**48%**34%18%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Chaves (largest village: Roswell)
  • Curry (largest village: Clovis)
  • Eddy (largest city: Carlsbad)
  • Harding (largest city: Roy)
  • Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg)
  • Lea (largest city: Hobbs)
  • Lincoln (largest city: Roidoso)
  • Otero (largest city: Alamogordo)
  • Quay (largest city: Tucumcari)
  • Roosevelt (largest city: Portales)
  • Sandoval (largest city: Rancho)
  • San Juan (largest city: Farmington)
  • Sierra (largest city: Truth or Consequences)
  • Torrance (largest city: Moriarty)
  • Union (largest city: Clayton)
  • Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas)
  • De Baca (largest city: Fort Sumner)
  • Los Alamos (largest city: Los Alamos)
  • Catron (largest city: Reserve)

By congressional district

Heinrich won two of three congressional districts.

DistrictHeinrichWilsonRepresentative
**53.5%**43.34%Michelle Lujan Grisham
44.37%**51.15%**Steve Pearce
**54.15%**42.42%Ben Ray Luján

References

References

  1. Cillizza, Chris. (February 19, 2011). "Bingaman won't run for Senate in 2012". [[The Washington Post]].
  2. Trygstad, Kyle. (April 26, 2011). "Balderas Enters N.M. Senate Race Against Heinrich". [[Roll Call]].
  3. Trygstad, Kyle. (April 2, 2011). "Heinrich Makes N.M. Senate Bid Official". [[Roll Call]].
  4. Haussamen, Heath. (June 29, 2011). "Chávez is running for Congress; Denish isn't". NMPolitics.net.
  5. Catanese, David. (June 29, 2011). "Chavez sets up primary for Heinrich seat". [[Politico]].
  6. (February 14, 2012). "Andres Valdez Out of U.S. Senate Race". [[Albuquerque Journal]].
  7. Catanese, David. (July 6, 2011). "Diane Denish endorses Balderas". [[Politico]].
  8. Trygstad, Kyle. (July 6, 2011). "Denish to Endorse Balderas in N.M. Senate Primary". [[Roll Call]].
  9. Catanese, David. (April 25, 2011). "Ben Ray Lujan won't run for Senate". [[Politico (newspaper).
  10. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_630930.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  11. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110815150429/http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/New-Mexico-2012-US-Senate-Democrat-Primary-Survey-Release-071911.pdf Magellan Strategies]
  12. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_1215925.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  13. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_424.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  14. [http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/05/27/a1/heinrich-wilson-build-wide-leads.html Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling] {{Webarchive. link. (June 7, 2012)
  15. Trygstad, Kyle. (December 6, 2011). "Martin Heinrich Nabs Raúl Grijalva's Support in Senate Race". [[Roll Call]].
  16. "Individual Endorsements". Martin Heinrich for Senate.
  17. (April 3, 2012). "NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC Announces New Endorsements in Key House, Senate Contests to End War on Women". NARAL Pro-Choice America.
  18. (February 21, 2012). "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Martin Heinrich for U. S. Senate". Martin Heinrich for Senate.
  19. "Endorsements". Martin Heinrich for Senate.
  20. "Endorsements". Balderas for Senate 2012.
  21. "Canvass of Returns of Primary Election Held on June 5, 2012 – State of New Mexico". [[Secretary of State of New Mexico]].
  22. Haussamen, Heath. (December 16, 2010). "Sowards announces candidacy for Senate". NMPolitics.net.
  23. Haussamen, Heath. (March 7, 2011). "Wilson formally enters U.S. Senate race". NMPolitics.net.
  24. (January 11, 2012). "Republican Candidate Bill English Withdraws from New Mexico U.S. Senate Race, Endorses Sowards". Tea Party Tribune.
  25. Trygstad, Kyle. (February 9, 2012). "Republican John Sanchez Drops New Mexico Senate Bid". [[Roll Call]].
  26. Burns, Peter. (February 18, 2011). "Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson will not run for Senate". [[The Washington Examiner]].
  27. (April 17, 2012). "Pearce re-election committee has balance of $682K". [[Las Cruces Sun-News]]}}{{Dead link.
  28. [http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Magellan-New-Mexico-2012-US-Senate-GOP-Primary-Survey-Topline-Results-042811.pdf Magellan Strategies] {{Dead link. (February 2022)
  29. [http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/New-Mexico-2012-US-Senate-Republican-Primary-Election-Survey-Topline-Results-0718112.pdf Magellan Strategies] {{Dead link. (September 2019)
  30. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_1213925.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  31. [http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/05/27/a1/heinrich-wilson-build-wide-leads.html Albuquerque Journal] {{Webarchive. link. (June 7, 2012)
  32. "Endorsements". Heather Wilson for United States Senate.
  33. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120706181536/http://www.jonbarrieforsenate.com/ Jon Barrie]
  34. Peters, Joey. (January 5, 2012). "Independent With Libertarian Bent Announces Bid For US Senate". [[Santa Fe Reporter]].
  35. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Martin Heinrich Campaign Finances]
  36. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Heather Wilson Campaign Finances]
  37. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Jon Barrie Campaign Finances]
  38. [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=NMS1 Top Contributors 2012 Race: New Mexico Senate], [[OpenSecrets]]
  39. Top Donors by Industries (opensecrets.org)]
  40. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".
  41. "2012 Senate".
  42. "2012 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  43. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics.
  44. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110221181428/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_0208.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  45. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110706154541/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_627513.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  46. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/new_mexico/new_mexico_senate_heinrich_d_45_wilson_r_43 Rasmussen Reports]
  47. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/new_mexico/election_2012_new_mexico_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  48. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_071712.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  49. [http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/09/09/news/heinrich-leads-wilson-in-us-senate-contest.html Albuquerque Journal] {{Webarchive. link. (September 12, 2012)
  50. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_91212.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  51. [https://web.archive.org/web/20121004035556/http://weaskamerica.com/2012/10/01/western-front/ We Ask America]
  52. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/NewMexicoResultsOctober2012.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  53. [http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/10/15/news/heinrich-leading-in-u-s-senate-race.html Albuquerque Poll Journal] {{Webarchive. link. (October 17, 2012)
  54. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/NewMexicoResults.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  55. [https://web.archive.org/web/20121103203809/http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/10/29/news/heinrich-stays-ahead-in-senate-race.html Albuquerque Poll Journal]
  56. "Archived copy".
  57. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".
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