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2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico

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2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico

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FieldValue
election_name2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico
countryNew Mexico
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2002 United States Senate election in New Mexico
previous_year2002
next_election2014 United States Senate election in New Mexico
next_year2014
election_dateNovember 4, 2008
image_sizex150px
image1Tom Udall Official House Picture.jpg
nominee1**Tom Udall**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**505,128**
percentage1**61.33%**
image2Steve Pearce, Official Portrait, 112th Congress (cropped).jpg
nominee2Steve Pearce
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2318,522
percentage238.67%
map_image
map_size215px
map_caption**Udall**:
**Pearce**:
**Tie:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionPete Domenici
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionTom Udall
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Pearce:
Tie:
The 2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 4, 2008, coinciding with the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pete Domenici decided to retire instead of seeking a seventh term. All three of New Mexico's U.S. Representatives (Tom Udall, Steve Pearce, and Heather Wilson) retired from the House to run in this election, which was the first open Senate seat in the state since 1972 where Domenici was first elected on this seat. Pearce narrowly defeated Wilson in the Republican primary, but Udall won the general election after an uncontested Democratic primary.

In February 2007 Domenici indicated his intention to run for re-election. By October 2007, he changed his mind, stating that because of the progression of a medical condition, he would not seek a seventh term. Domenici also lost his chairmanship after Republicans lost control of the Senate in the 2006 Senate election, which may have inclined him against running. On June 3, 2008, Pearce and Udall won their respective nomination contests.

Democrats won this seat for the first time since 1966, the NM-01 House seat for the first time ever, and the NM-02 seat for the first time since 1978, and thereby gave New Mexico an all-Democratic Congressional delegation for the first time since 1969. Tom Udall outperformed Barack Obama and his results in the concurrent presidential election by 4.42% and by 32,706 votes.

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Tom Udall, U.S. Representative

Campaign

After Domenici announced he was not running, Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was considered a leading candidate for the seat, but in October he affirmed his commitment to his presidential nomination campaign.

In October Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez entered the race for the Democratic nomination. In early November five-term Democratic Rep. Tom Udall entered the race. On December 7 Chavez withdrew from the race, saying "While I deeply appreciate all the support I have received, it has become very clear to me that Democrats should not be divided in the upcoming election."

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Steve Pearce, U.S. Representative, and candidate in 2000
  • Heather Wilson, U.S. Representative

Polling

SourceDateSteve
PearceHeather
Wilson
SurveyUSANovember 16–18, 200737%**56%**
SurveyUSAMay 15, 2008**49%**46%

Results

Results by county:

| | | | | | | | ]]

General election

Candidates

  • Tom Udall (D), U.S. Representative
  • Steve Pearce (R), U.S. Representative

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportOctober 23, 2008
CQ PoliticsOctober 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2008
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 31, 2008

David Iglesias dismissal controversy

Domenici and Wilson were both being investigated by the Senate for their roles in the dismissal of prosecutor David Iglesias. This may have affected Wilson's chances in the 2008 election.

In late October Pearce made 130,000 automated phone calls, which led Wilson to "cry foul." At issue was Pearce's use of the phone calls to justify his opposition to the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) bill. The Wilson campaign claimed that "Pearce violated House ethics by urging those he called to contact him through his official, non-campaign phone number or check out his official, non-campaign Web site."

Finances

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) attempted to defend 23 Senate seats up for election in November. Committee chair Senator John Ensign identified the 10 most competitive Republican seats in June 2008. He was asked about the two Republican seats most likely to turn Democratic, Virginia and New Mexico. Ensign did not directly say whether the NRSC was considering walking away to work on other seats that can be won, but he said, "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win."

Udall raised more than $801,000 prior to November 29. Wilson had slightly less, including a November Washington fundraiser with Vice President Dick Cheney that netted $110,000, bringing her total to about $750,000.

Debates

The candidates agreed to three televised debates: October 15 on KOB-TV, October 18 on KRQE and October 26 on KOAT-TV. The AARP co-sponsored the second debate and the Albuquerque Journal co-sponsored the final debate. They also appeared together on Meet the Press in the fall.

Polling

SourceDateSteve
Pearce (R)Tom
Udall (D)
SurveyUSAOctober 5–7, 200737%**55%**
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & AssociatesOctober 23–27, 200733%**50%**
SurveyUSAOctober 27–30, 200740%**56%**
Research 2000November 5–7, 200737%**54%**
SurveyUSANovember 16–18, 200740%**54%**
New Mexico State UniversityFebruary 11, 200831%**53%**
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 29, 200842%**50%**
Rasmussen ReportsApril 10, 200840%**54%**
Rasmussen ReportsMay 14, 200837%**53%**
SurveyUSAMay 15, 200836%**60%**
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 24, 200835%**61%**
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 20, 200844%**52%**
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 8, 200844%**51%**
Survey USASeptember 16, 200841%**56%**
Public Policy PollingSeptember 19, 200837%**57%**
Survey USASeptember 29–30, 200839%**58%**
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 1, 200841%**55%**
Survey USAOctober 13, 200840%**58%**
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 13, 200837%**57%**
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 28, 200841%**56%**
Survey USAOctober 31, 200842%**56%**

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Bernalillo (largest city: Albuquerque)
  • Doña Ana (largest city: Las Cruces)
  • Guadalupe (largest city: Santa Rosa)
  • Harding (largest city: Roy)
  • Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg)
  • Luna (largest city: Deming)
  • Quay (largest city: Tucumcari)
  • Sandoval (largest city: Rancho)
  • Torrance (largest city: Moriarty)
  • Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas)
  • Colfax (largest city: Raton)
  • Los Alamos (largest city: Los Alamos)
  • Grant (largest city: Silver City)
  • McKinley (largest city: Gallup)
  • Arriba (largest city: Española)
  • Cibola (largest city: Grants)
  • Mora (largest city: Mora)

References

References

  1. Talhelm, Jennifer. (February 13, 2007). "Domenici: 'I am running' in 2008". [[The Santa Fe New Mexican]].
  2. Murray, Shailagh. (October 5, 2007). "Citing Health, GOP's Domenici says he'll retire from Senate". [[The Washington Post]].
  3. (June 2023)
  4. (October 4, 2008). "Richardson Sticks with Presidential Bid". [[The New York Times]].
  5. (October 9, 2007). "Chavez announces U.S. Senate run". [[KOB-TV]].
  6. (November 11, 2007). "NM Rep. Tom Udall to Run for Senate".
  7. (December 7, 2007). "Chávez drops out of U. S. Senate race". [[KRQE-TV]].
  8. "Archived copy".
  9. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=3ae216b1-9e55-4314-aa07-f560c157ea1c SurveyUSA]
  10. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8873e7c5-a311-44e2-b01b-9df0a53afa30 SurveyUSA]
  11. "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008".
  12. link. (October 28, 2010 ''CQ Politics'')
  13. "2008 Senate ratings".
  14. "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics.
  15. (October 4, 2008). "Wilson, Possibly Udall To Seek Domenici's Senate Seat". The Gate.
  16. (October 22, 2007). "Pearce calls voters, Wilson cries foul". [[KOB]].
  17. (October 31, 2007). "Senate hopefuls don't inspire". [[Alamogordo Daily News]].
  18. Davis, Susan. (June 12, 2008). "Sen. Ensign Says GOP Majority Would Be 'Fairly Miraculous'". Wall Street Journal blog.
  19. (November 29, 2007). "Ten things to know about Senate hopeful Rep. Tom Udall". [[Albuquerque Tribune]].
  20. (November 16, 2007). "Wilson pulls $110,000 at Cheney fundraiser". [[The Hill (newspaper).
  21. [http://www.lcsun-news.com/ci_10231609 Senate candidates agree on 3 NM televised debates]{{Dead link. (June 2023)
  22. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=0c284bce-cac2-4c56-88c2-3f35c6b617bf SurveyUSA]
  23. [https://web.archive.org/web/20071128011658/http://draftudall.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/udall_poll_memo.pdf Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates]
  24. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0c284bce-cac2-4c56-88c2-3f35c6b617bf&q=43185 SurveyUSA]
  25. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080110033302/http://blogs.abqtrib.com/albq/state/2007/11/daily_kos_predicts_very_close.html Research 2000]
  26. [https://web.archive.org/web/20081129021817/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002668829 New Mexico State University]
  27. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080406071110/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  28. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080624033045/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_mexico/new_mexico_senate_udall_continues_to_enjoy_big_lead_over_gop_challengers Rasmussen Reports]
  29. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080727005024/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  30. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3fb02455-c05b-442a-bc28-c351e77ec14a/ Survey USA]
  31. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_922.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  32. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8159cbc4-f2b7-430b-8fcd-4db9d0be038a Survey USA]
  33. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a2fd6e40-246c-4e3e-b13a-e367ad297f66/ Survey USA]
  34. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=95bf6797-cf1e-44ee-8718-0b022d172dc7/ Survey USA]
  35. "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".
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