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2012 United States Senate election in Nevada

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2012 United States Senate election in Nevada

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FieldValue
election_name2012 United States Senate election in Nevada
countryNevada
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2006 United States Senate election in Nevada
previous_year2006
next_election2018 United States Senate election in Nevada
next_year2018
election_date
turnout57.1% (voting eligible)
image_size150x150px
image1File:Dean Heller, official Senate portrait, 112th Congress (3x4).jpg
nominee1**Dean Heller**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**457,656**
percentage1**45.87%**
image2File:Shelley Berkley, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped).jpg
nominee2Shelley Berkley
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2446,080
percentage244.71%
map_image
map_size230px
map_caption**Heller:**
**Berkley:**
map_altNevada Senate Election Results by County, 2012
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionDean Heller
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionDean Heller
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

Berkley:
The 2012 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and the 2012 presidential election. The primary election was held on June 12, 2012.

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Dean Heller, who was appointed to his seat in May 2011 following the resignation of Senator John Ensign, was narrowly elected to a full term over Representative Shelley Berkley, despite President Barack Obama carrying the state by 6.7% in the concurrent presidential election. As a result, Heller became the only Republican Senate candidate in 2012 to win in a state that was lost by the Republican presidential candidate. With a margin of 1.2%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in North Dakota. As of 2025, this is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in Nevada.

Background

Main article: John Ensign scandal

Ensign was re-elected to the United States Senate in 2006 against Jack Carter, son of former president Jimmy Carter, 55% to 41%. His re-election campaign was expected to be complicated after it was revealed in 2009 that he had been involved in an extramarital affair with the wife of one of his campaign staffers, allegedly made payments to the woman's family and arranged work for her husband to cover himself.

The Senate Ethics Committee was to investigate Ensign, and his poll numbers declined significantly. There was speculation that he might resign before the election, but he initially said he would run for reelection. On March 7, 2011, Ensign announced that he would not seek reelection, and on April 22, he announced that he would resign effective May 3.

Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval appointed U.S. Representative Dean Heller to fill the vacancy created by Ensign's resignation. Heller took office on May 9, 2011.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. senator, former U.S. representative, former Nevada secretary of state and former state assemblyman

Eliminated in primary

  • Sherry Brooks, retired secretary
  • Richard Charles
  • Eddie Hamilton, retired auto executive and perennial candidate
  • Carlo Poliak, sanitation worker and perennial candidate
  • David Lory Vanderbeek, marriage and family therapist

Declined

  • Sharron Angle, former state assembly member and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010
  • John Chachas, businessman
  • John Ensign, former U.S. senator
  • Sue Lowden, former state senator and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010
  • Brian Krolicki, lieutenant governor
  • Jon Porter, former U.S representative
  • Danny Tarkanian, businessman, nominee for Secretary of State of Nevada in 2006 and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010 (running for the 4th district)

Polling

Primary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSharron
AngleJohn
ChachasJohn
EnsignDean
HellerBrian
KrolickiSue
LowdenDanny
TarkanianUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 3–5, 2011400±4.9%9%5%20%**30%**6%12%10%8%

Appointment preference

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSue
LowdenBrian
SandovalDanny
TarkanianUndecided
Mason-Dixon/LVJROctober 8, 20094%**24%**14%17%17%21%

Primaries with Ensign

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
EnsignDean
HellerOtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingOctober 7–9, 2010400±4.9%**45%**37%––18%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 3–5, 2011400±4.9%34%**52%**––13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
EnsignBrian
KrolickiOtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingOctober 7–9, 2010400±4.9%**55%**27%––18%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Shelley Berkley, U.S. representative

Eliminated in primary

  • Steve Brown, businessman
  • Barry Ellsworth, renewable energy executive
  • Louis Macias, art dealer
  • Nancy Price, former regent of the Nevada System of Higher Education and Democratic nominee for the 2nd congressional district in 2010

Withdrew

  • Byron Georgiou, businessman

Declined

  • Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada Attorney General
  • Oscar Goodman, former Mayor of Las Vegas
  • Kate Marshall, Nevada State Treasurer
  • Ross Miller, Secretary of State of Nevada
  • Dina Titus, former U.S. Representative and nominee for Governor in 2006 (running for the 1st district)

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorShelley
BerkleyByron
GeorgiouOtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingApril 21–24, 2011300±5.7%**65%**8%––27%
Public Policy PollingJuly 28–31, 2011400±4.9%**71%**6%––23%

Results

Results by county:

]]

General election

Candidates

  • Shelley Berkley (D), U.S. representative
  • Dean Heller (R), incumbent U.S. senator
  • David Lory VanDerBeek (Independent American Party of Nevada), therapist

Campaign

On July 9, the United States House Committee on Ethics voted unanimously to form an investigative subcommittee to see whether Berkley used her official position to advocate for policy that benefited her family's financial situation. More specifically, Berkley was accused of pushing healthcare legislation that would benefit her husband's medical practice as well as she was blamed for her efforts to block the closure of a kidney transplant center where her husband was employed.

Debates

The first Berkley-Heller debate was on September 27, 2012. They met again in Las Vegas on October 11 and on Jon Ralston's "Face to Face" program on October 15.

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Dean Heller (R)$8,447,489$6,510,874$1,936,618$0
Shelley Berkley (D)$8,779,074$8,947,424$924,918$0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Shelly BerkleyContributionDean HellerContribution
EMILY's List$93,049Las Vegas Sands$43,750
NORPAC$59,750MGM Resorts International$35,500
MGM Resorts International$53,700Alliance Resource Partners$34,500
DaVita Inc.$49,300Crow Holdings$30,000
Diamond Resorts$44,000Elliott Management Corporation$29,413
Cantor Fitzgerald$27,000Brady Industries$25,000
Caesars Entertainment$26,000Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
Fresenius Medical Care$24,500Wynn Resorts$22,500
Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck$23,650Southwest Gas$21,800
Station Casinos$20,200Bank of America$20,500

Top industries

Shelley BerkleyContributionDean HellerContribution
Lawyers/law firms$607,407Leadership PACs$379,718
Pro-Israel$384,580Retired$300,560
Health professionals$369,954Financial Institutions$217,084
Women's issues$309,817Real estate$206,362
Leadership PACs$292,500Casinos/gambling$205,832
Retired$281,490Oil & gas$187,500
Real estate$261,779Insurance$182,155
Financial institutions$228,393Lobbyists$159,812
Casinos/gambling$227,350Mining$149,745
Lobbyists$175,147Health professionals$132,450

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDean
Heller (R)Shelley
Berkley (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 3–5, 2011932±3.2%**51%**38%—16%
Public Policy PollingApril 21–24, 2011491±4.4%**47%**43%—10%
Public Policy PollingJuly 28–31, 2011601±4.0%**46%**43%—12%
Public Policy PollingOctober 20–23, 2011500±4.4%**45%****45%**—10%
Cannon Survey CenterDecember 12–20, 2011600±4.0%43%**44%**—6.9%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 19, 2012500±4.5%**47%**40%2%11%
Public Policy PollingMarch 29 – April 1, 2012553±4.2%**46%**43%—12%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 30, 2012500±4.5%**51%**40%2%8%
NBC News/MaristMay 22–24, 20121,040±3.0%**46%**44%—10%
Public Policy PollingJune 7–10, 2012500±4.4%**44%**43%—13%
Magellan StrategiesJuly 16–17, 2012665±3.8%**45%**42%—13%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 24, 2012500±4.5%**51%**42%2%5%
LVRJ/Survey USAAugust 16–21, 2012869±3.4%**44%**39%9%8%
Public Policy PollingAugust 23–26, 2012831±3.4%**47%**45%—8%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 18, 2012500±4.5%**42%**41%4%12%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 18–20, 2012501±4.4%44%**48%**—8%
NBC/WSJ/MaristSeptember 23–25, 2012984±3.1%**49%**43%1%6%
We Ask AmericaSeptember 25–27, 20121,152±3.1%**45%****45%**—10%
Gravis MarketingOctober 3, 20121,006±3.1%**53%**36%—12%
Precision OpinionOctober 6, 20121,521±2.5%**45%**43%—12%
LVRJ/Survey USAOctober 3–8, 20121,222±2.9%**47%**39%8%6%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 8, 2012500±4.5%**48%**45%3%4%
SuffolkOctober 6–9, 2012500±4.4%**40%**37%7%14%
Public Policy PollingOctober 8–10, 2012594±4.0%**47%**44%4%5%
LVRJ/Survey USAOctober 11–15, 2012806±3.5%**46%**40%8%6%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 15, 2012500±4.5%**50%**43%4%3%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 23, 2012500±4.5%**50%**45%1%4%
Public Policy PollingOctober 22–24, 2012636±3.9%**44%****44%**7%5%
NBC/WSJ/MaristOctober 23–24, 20121,042±2.8%**48%**45%2%6%
LVRJ/SurveyUSAOctober 23–29, 20121,212±2.9%**46%**40%10%4%
Public Policy PollingNovember 3–4, 2012750±3.6%**48%**46%4%1%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDean
Heller (R)Byron
Georgiou (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingApril 21–24, 2011491±4.4%**52%**28%––20%
Magellan Strategies (R)June 21–22, 2011720±3.65%**46%**33%––21%
Public Policy PollingJuly 28–31, 2011601±4.0%**48%**31%––20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDean
Heller (R)Oscar
Goodman (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 3–5, 2011932±3.2%**45%**38%––16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDean
Heller (R)Catherine
Cortez Masto (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 3–5, 2011932±3.2%**46%**37%––16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDean
Heller (R)Ross
Miller (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 3–5, 2011932±3.2%**46%**34%––21%

with John Ensign

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
Ensign (R)Shelley
Berkley (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 11–12, 2010763±3.6%**49%**40%––11%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 3–5, 2011932±3.2%42%**45%**––13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
Ensign (R)Catherine
Cortez Masto (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 16–18, 2010630±3.9%**48%**38%––14%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 3–5, 2011932±3.2%42%**44%**––14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
Ensign (R)Oscar
Goodman (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 11–12, 2010763±3.6%**43%**41%––16%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 3–5, 2011932±3.2%35%**45%**––20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
Ensign (R)Ross
Miller (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 11–12, 2010763±3.6%**47%**36%––18%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 3–5, 2011932±3.2%39%**40%**––21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
Ensign (R)Dina
Titus (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 16–18, 2010630±3.9%**51%**41%––8%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2012
Inside ElectionsNovember 2, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 5, 2012

Results

On election day, Heller edged out Berkley by just over a point, at the same time Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 6.7%, becoming the only Republican in 2012 to win a senate seat in a state that voted for Obama in the presidential election.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Clark (largest municipality: Las Vegas)

By congressional district

Heller won two of four congressional districts.

DistrictBerkleyHellerRepresentative
**58.57%**31.6%Dina Titus
34.27%**55.83%**Mark Amodei
43.34%**47.93%**Joe Heck
**48.26%**42.38%Steven Horsford

Notes

References

References

  1. Dr. Michael McDonald. (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". [[George Mason University]].
  2. (October 2, 2009). "Senator's Aid to Mistress's Husband Raises Ethics Flags". [[The New York Times]].
  3. Cillizza, Chris. (July 9, 2009). "Ensign Acknowledges Mistress Payment". [[The Washington Post]].
  4. (February 1, 2011). "John Ensign running, despite ethics investigation". [[Politico]].
  5. BALL, MOLLY. (July 19, 2009). "New poll reveals Ensign's status sinking, But most Nevadans still say Republican senator should not resign". Stephens Media, LLC.
  6. Mascaro, Lisa. (July 14, 2009). "Ensign to stay in Senate, seek reelection". [[Las Vegas Sun]].
  7. Yurkanin, Justin. (March 7, 2011). "Senator John Ensign announces he will not seek reelection". [[Las Vegas Review-Journal]].
  8. (April 22, 2011). "Sen. Ensign says he will resign May 3". [[CNN]].
  9. (May 9, 2011). "Heller takes Senate oath".
  10. Meyers, Laura. (November 7, 2010). "2012 ELECTION: Senate race field already looking full". [[Las Vegas Review-Journal]].
  11. Ralston, Jon. (November 10, 2010). "GOP may be setting its sights on Ensign". [[Las Vegas Sun]].
  12. Myers, Laura. (June 3, 2012). "2012 PRIMARY ELECTION: U.S. SENATE". [[Las Vegas Review-Journal]].
  13. [http://www.lvrj.com/news/angle-in-race-for-heller-s-house-seat-118089544.html?ref=544 "Angle in race for Heller's House seat"], ReviewJournal.com
  14. Ralston, Jon. (September 21, 2010). "Chachas could make 2012 Senate race interesting". [[Las Vegas Sun]].
  15. Kleefeld, Eric. (January 6, 2011). "What The Cluck? Lowden Ready To Run Again". [[Talking Points Memo]].
  16. [https://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2011/03/krolicki-endorses-heller-mulls-house-bid-034225?showall Krolicki endorses Heller, mulls House bid] by David Catanese at POLITICO.com
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  26. Schwartz, David McGrath. (December 15, 2010). "Secretary of state dives into immigration debate". [[Las Vegas Sun]].
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  74. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".
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