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2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota

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2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota

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FieldValue
election_name2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota
countryNorth Dakota
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2006 United States Senate election in North Dakota
previous_year2006
next_election2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota
next_year2018
election_dateNovember 6, 2012
turnout60.6% (voting eligible)
image1File:Heidi Heitkamp official portrait.jpg
nominee1**Heidi Heitkamp**
party1North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party
popular_vote1**161,337**
percentage1**50.24%**
image2File:Rick Berg, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg
image_sizex150px
nominee2Rick Berg
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2158,401
percentage249.32%
map_image{{switcher[[File:2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota results map by county.svg250px]]County results
map_caption**Heitkamp:**
**Berg:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionKent Conrad
before_partyNorth Dakota Democratic-NPL Party
after_electionHeidi Heitkamp
after_partyNorth Dakota Democratic-NPL Party

|[[File:2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota by State Senate District.svg|250px]]|State senate district results}} Berg:
The 2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, other United States Senate elections, United States House of Representatives elections, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic-NPL Senator Kent Conrad decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a fifth term.

Though each party endorses a single candidate in state conventions in the spring, ballot access for the general election was determined in a primary election held on June 12, 2012.

Heidi Heitkamp, a Democratic-NPL former North Dakota Attorney General, won the open seat over Republican Rick Berg, North Dakota's at-large U.S. Representative, by a margin of 0.9%. Heitkamp outperformed President Barack Obama by 20.5%, the latter having lost North Dakota by 19.6% in the concurrent presidential election. Heitkamp's very narrow winning margin made it the closest race of the 2012 United States Senate elections. The victory made Heitkamp the first woman ever elected to Congress from North Dakota.

, this was the last time a Democrat won a federal and/or statewide election in North Dakota, and the last North Dakota U.S. Senate race that was decided by a single-digit margin.

Democratic-NPL primary

The North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16–18, 2012, in Grand Forks. Former state attorney general and 2000 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Heidi Heitkamp was uncontested in seeking the official party nomination and was the only member of the party elected to appear on the state primary ballot.

Candidates

Nominee

  • Heidi Heitkamp, former attorney general of North Dakota and nominee for Governor of North Dakota in 2000

Withdrew

  • Thomas Potter, Presbyterian pastor and former professor of finance at UND (dropped out February 2012)

Declined

  • Kent Conrad, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Pam Gulleson, former state representative and former chief of staff and former state director for former senator Byron Dorgan
  • Kristin Hedger, nominee for North Dakota Secretary of State in 2006
  • Joel Heitkamp, brother of Heidi Heitkamp, radio personality and former state senator
  • Roger Johnson, president of the National Farmers Union and former North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner
  • Tim Mathern, state senator and nominee for governor in 2008
  • Earl Pomeroy, former U.S. Representative
  • Tracy Potter, state senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010
  • Tim Purdon, U.S. Attorney
  • Jasper Schneider, USDA rural development State Director
  • Mac Schneider, state senator
  • Ryan Taylor, Minority Leader of the North Dakota Senate

Republican primary

North Dakota Republicans endorsed U.S. Representative Rick Berg at their convention, though general election ballot access is determined by a statewide primary election held on June 12, 2012. In contrast to state political tradition, declared candidate Duane Sand did not seek the party endorsement, trying instead to defeat Berg on the June primary ballot.

Candidates

Nominee

  • Rick Berg, U.S. Representative

Eliminated in primary

  • Duane Sand, former North and South Dakota Director for Americans for Prosperity and nominee for ND-AL in 2004 and 2008

Declined

  • Al Carlson, North Dakota state house majority leader
  • Tony Clark, state public service commissioner
  • Kevin Cramer, state public service commissioner
  • Jack Dalrymple, North Dakota governor and 1992 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate
  • Cory Fong, state tax commissioner
  • Shane Goettle, U.S. Senator John Hoeven's state director
  • Tony Grindberg, state senator
  • Bob Harms, North Dakota Republican Party treasurer
  • Brian Kalk, state public service commissioner (running for House)
  • Kim Koppelman, state representative
  • Ed Schafer, former U.S. agriculture secretary and former North Dakota governor
  • Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota treasurer
  • Wayne Stenehjem, North Dakota attorney general
  • John Warford, mayor of Bismarck
  • Drew Wrigley, North Dakota lieutenant governor

Endorsements

Senators

  • John Hoeven, United States Senator from North Dakota
  • Kay Bailey Hutchison, United States Senator from Texas Governors
  • Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and Republican nominee for president in 2012 Legislators
  • Nancy Johnson, state representative
  • George Nodland, state senator
  • Rich Wardner, State Senate Majority Leader
  • Mike Schatz, state representative
  • Vicky Steiner, state representative Mayors
  • Katie Anderson, Mayor of Jamestown
  • Mike Hynek, Mayor of Stanley
  • Dennis Johnson, Mayor of Dickinson
  • Ward Koeser, Mayor of Williston
  • Rich Mattern, Mayor of West Fargo
  • Ed McConnell, Mayor of Casselton
  • Brent Sanford, Mayor of Watford City
  • Jim Sturdevant, Mayor of Wahpeton
  • John Warford, Mayor of Bismarck
  • Curt Zimbelman, Mayor of Minot

Organizations

  • Susan B. Anthony List
  • NRA Political Victory Fund
  • North Dakota Farm Bureau

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorRick
BergDuane
SandUndecided
date=June 7, 2012title=Heitkamp Leads Berg in Latest Pollwork=Valley News Livepublisher=Gray Televisionurl=http://www.valleynewslive.com/story/18730731/exclusive-poll-results-5pm-6pm-tonighturl-status=deadarchive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120607224903/http://www.valleynewslive.com/story/18730731/exclusive-poll-results-5pm-6pm-tonightarchive-date=June 7, 2012}}June 4–6, 2012625± 4.0%**73%**16%11%
last=Daumfirst=Kristendate=May 17, 2012title=Poll: Berg leads Heitkamp in U.S. Senate racework=The Forum of Fargo-Moorheadpublisher=Forum Communicationsurl=http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/361074/url-status=deadarchive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120523204346/http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/361074/archive-date=May 23, 2012}}May 3–8, 2012500± 4.3%**65%**21%14%

Results

Results by county:

]]

General election

Candidates

  • Rick Berg (R), U.S. Representative
  • Heidi Heitkamp (D), former attorney general of North Dakota and nominee for governor in 2000
  • Bill Kiefer (I), businessman

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Heidi Heitkamp (D-NPL)$5,341,362$5,318,232$23,130$0
Rick Berg (R)$6,501,693$6,129,026$316,641$0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Heidi HeitkampContributionRick BergContribution
Motley Rice LLC$41,750Verizon Communications$43,666
Council for a Livable World$26,705Elliott Management Corporation$29,413
Weitz & Luxenberg$22,400NORPAC$26,700
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP$15,050Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
Medcenter One Health Systems$12,000Rurban Financial$22,700
American Association for Justice$10,833Hess Corp$22,500
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld$10,750NACCO Industries$22,000
American Federation of Teachers$10,300Marathon Oil$21,000
Patton Boggs LLP$10,250Berkshire Hathaway$20,500
American Postal Workers Union$10,000Koch Industries$20,000

Top industries

Heidi HeitkampContributionRick BergContribution
Lawyers/law firms$433,811Oil & gas$433,949
Leadership PACs$284,500Leadership PACs$277,163
Women's issues$111,593Financial institutions$274,941
Lobbyists$103,635Retired$218,909
Retired$100,812Real estate$171,686
Agribusiness$78,450Agribusiness$163,583
Public sector unions$73,800Insurance$140,011
Financial institutions$64,713Commercial banks$127,140
Education$60,960Health professionals$114,438
Building trade unions$52,500Mining$106,804

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced that it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2012
Inside ElectionsNovember 2, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorHeidi
Heitkamp (D-NPL)Rick
Berg (R)OtherUndecided
Pharos ResearchNovember 2–5, 2012503± 4.1%47%**49%**—4%
Pharos ResearchOctober 26–28, 2012752± 3.6%**50%**48%—2%
Mason-DixonOctober 26–28, 2012625± 4.0%45%**47%**—8%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)October 21–24, 2012600± 4.0%**48%**44%—7%
Pharos ResearchOctober 19–21, 2012807± 3.4%**49%**48%—3%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)October 16–19, 2012600± 4.0%**45%**42%—13%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 17–18, 2012600± 4.0%45%**50%**—5%
Essman ResearchOctober 12–15, 2012500± 4.4%40%**50%**—10%
Mason-DixonOctober 3–5, 2012625± 4.0%**47%****47%**—6%
DFM Research (D)September 24–27, 2012600± 4.0%**48%**44%—8%
DFM Research (D)July 24–26, 2012400± 4.9%**50%**44%—6%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 10–11, 2012400± 5.0%40%**49%**2%8%
Mason-DixonJune 4–6, 2012625± 4.0%**47%**46%—7%
Essman ResearchMay 3–8, 2012500± 4.3%44%**51%**—5%
DFM Research (D)April 18–26, 2012478± 4.5%**49%**44%1%6%

Results

By county

CountyHeidi Heitkamp
Democratic–NPLRick Berg
RepublicanWrite-inMarginTotal
votes#%#%#%#%AdamsBarnesBensonBillingsBottineauBowmanBurkeBurleighCassCavalierDickeyDivideDunnEddyEmmonsFosterGolden ValleyGrand ForksGrantGriggsHettingerKidderLaMoureLoganMcHenryMcIntoshMcKenzieMcLeanMercerMortonMountrailNelsonOliverPembinaPierceRamseyRansomRenvilleRichlandRoletteSargentSheridanSiouxSlopeStarkSteeleStutsmanTownerTraillWalshWardWellsWilliamsTotals
47336.90**806****62.87**30.23-333-25.97**1,282**
**3,181****57.51**2,32942.11210.3885215.40**5,531**
**1,453****67.08**70932.7340.1874434.45**2,166**
16027.92**412****71.90**10.17-252-43.98**573**
1,63646.33**1,875****53.10**200.57-239-6.77**3,531**
62136.29**1,086****63.47**40.23-465-27.18**1,711**
36035.29**657****64.41**30.29-731-29.12**1,020**
19,28444.79**23,538****54.67**2310.54-4,254-9.88**43,053**
**41,480****56.51**31,56943.003590.499,91113.51**73,408**
**1,087****52.49**97747.1870.341105.31**2,071**
1,12544.43**1,399****55.25**80.32-274-10.92**2,532**
**592****50.95**56748.8030.26252.15**1,162**
74636.71**1,283****63.14**30.15-537-26.43**2,032**
**693****60.00**45539.3970.6123820.61**1,155**
70937.85**1,152****61.51**120.64-443-23.66**1,873**
**853****51.05**81048.4780.48432.58**1,671**
26528.59**660****71.20**20.22-395-42.61**927**
**16,542****55.60**13,10144.041070.363,44111.56**29,750**
54238.66**853****60.84**70.50-311-22.18**1,402**
**704****52.85**62847.1500.00765.70**1,332**
51137.63**843****62.08**40.29-332-24.45**1,358**
61346.19**706****53.20**80.60-93-7.01**1,327**
1,06548.34**1,125****51.07**130.59-60-2.73**2,203**
44642.00**610****57.44**60.56-164-15.44**1,062**
**1,359****50.20**1,33949.4690.33200.74**2,707**
64842.35**872****56.99**100.65-224-14.64**1,530**
1,22936.02**2,177****63.80**60.18-948-26.98**3,412**
2,35747.96**2,544****51.76**140.28-187-3.80**4,915**
1,80740.59**2,627****59.01**180.40-820-18.42**4,452**
6,32546.68**7,135****52.66**900.66-810-5.98**13,550**
**1,745****50.92**1,67348.8290.26722.10**3,427**
**993****59.50**67040.1460.3632319.36**1,669**
44644.33**555****55.17**50.50-109-10.84**1,006**
**1,672****51.30**1,57948.4580.25932.85**3,259**
1,02747.22**1,136****52.23**120.55-109-5.01**2,175**
**2,766****55.18**2,22944.46180.3653710.72**5,013**
**1,669****68.71**75531.0850.2191437.63**2,429**
58046.00**676****53.61**50.40-96-7.61**1,261**
**4,445****58.39**3,13541.181021.311,31017.21**7,613**
**3,662****80.08**90219.7290.202,76060.36**4,573**
**1,321****65.66**67933.75120.6064231.91**2,012**
29936.29**521****63.23**40.49-222-26.94**824**
**963****83.52**18516.0550.4377867.47**1,153**
14933.48**294****66.07**20.45-100-32.59**445**
4,11035.63**7,393****64.09**320.28-3,283-28.46**11,535**
**641****61.63**39838.2710.1024323.36**1,040**
**4,800****50.61**4,65449.07300.321461.54**9,484**
**699****59.39**47240.1060.5122719.29**1,177**
**2,311****59.06**1,58940.61130.3372218.45**3,913**
**2,645****54.94**2,15144.68180.3749410.26**4,814**
11,23044.45**13,888****54.97**1450.57-2,658-10.52**25,263**
98241.59**1,363****57.73**160.68-38116.14**2,361**
3,14232.37**6,541****67.38**240.25-3,399-35.01**9,707**
**161,163****50.23**158,28249.331,4060.44**2,492****0.9****320,851**

;Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Adams (largest city: Hettinger)
  • Billings (largest city: Medora)
  • Bottineau (largest city: Bottineau)
  • Bowman (largest city: Bowman)
  • Burke (largest city: Powers Lake)
  • Burleigh (largest city: Bismarck)
  • Dickey (largest city: Oakes)
  • Dunn (largest city: Killdeer)
  • Emmons (largest city: Linton)
  • Golden Valley (largest city: Beach)
  • Grant (largest city: Elgin)
  • Hettinger (largest city: Mott)
  • Kidder (largest city: Steele)
  • LaMoure (largest city: LaMoure)
  • Logan (largest city: Napoleon)
  • McIntosh (largest city: Wishek)
  • McKenzie (largest city: Watford City)
  • McLean (largest city: Garrison)
  • Mercer (largest city: Beulah)
  • Morton (largest city: Mandan)
  • Oliver (largest city: Center)
  • Pierce (largest city: Rugby)
  • Renville (largest city: Mohall)
  • Sheridan (largest city: McClusky)
  • Slope (largest city: Marmarth)
  • Stark (largest city: Dickinson)
  • Ward (largest city: Minot)
  • Wells (largest city: Harvey)
  • Williams (largest city: Williston)

Notes

References

References

  1. Dr. Michael McDonald. (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". [[George Mason University]].
  2. (July 2011). "North Dakota election calendar". [[North Dakota Secretary of State.
  3. Kate Nocera. (November 7, 2012). "Heidi Heitkamp scores upset win in North Dakota". Politico.
  4. "Can Heitkamp Win Again in Red North Dakota?".
  5. The Associated Press. (2024-02-22). "North Dakota Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer says he's seeking reelection".
  6. (March 17, 2012). "ND Democrats set their fall legislative ticket". [[Newsday]].
  7. Daum, Kristen M. (November 8, 2011). "SPECULATION NO MORE: Heitkamp announces U.S. Senate run". Flickertales from The Hill.
  8. Nodland, Chad. (October 25, 2011). "Tom Potter: I'm Running For Senate". NorthDecoder.com.
  9. Smith, Nick. (February 24, 2012). "Potter drops Senate bid". [[The Bismarck Tribune]].
  10. Haga, Chuck. (January 18, 2011). "Conrad will not run for re-election in 2012". [[Grand Forks Herald]].
  11. Miller, Joshua. (September 26, 2011). "Ex-State Rep. Pam Gulleson Launches House Bid". [[Roll Call]].
  12. (August 1, 2011}}{{Dead link). "State Sen. Schneider: 2012 U.S. Senate race not now 'in the cards'". [[Grand Forks Herald]].
  13. Catanese, David. (November 1, 2011). "Heitkamp telling Dems she's running for Senate". [[Politico]].
  14. Miller, Tricia. (January 18, 2011). "Retirements Shuffle 2012 Senate Landscape". [[Roll Call]].
  15. Beitsch, Rebecca. (January 18, 2011). "Neither party lacking Senate contenders". [[Bismarck Tribune]].
  16. Trygstad, Kyle. (April 11, 2011). "West Virginia, North Dakota Senate Race Ratings Change". [[Roll Call]].
  17. Sullivan, Sean. (April 28, 2011). "Club For Growth Slams Berg". [[National Journal]].
  18. Rodgers}}{{Dead link, Ben. (January 19, 2011). "Schneider says he hasn't ruled out running for Conrad's Senate seat". [[The Jamestown Sun]].
  19. (December 12, 2011). "Democrat Taylor joins race for N.D. governor". [[Grand Forks Herald]]}}{{Dead link.
  20. Daum, Kristen. (March 29, 2012). "Divide within North Dakota's GOP creates friction in endorsement process". [[The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead]].
  21. Sobel, Julie. (May 16, 2011). "Berg Enters N.D. Senate Race". [[National Journal]]: Hotline On Call.
  22. Toeplitz, Shira. (May 16, 2011). "House Freshman Berg Will Run for Senate in North Dakota". [[Roll Call]].
  23. (August 8, 2011). "Sand Announces Entry into North Dakota Senate Race". Standard Newswire.
  24. Toeplitz, Shira. (May 3, 2011). "N.D. GOP Expecting Competitive House Race". [[Roll Call]].
  25. Catanese, David. (April 26, 2011). "N.D. lawmakers unite behind Berg for Senate". [[Politico]].
  26. Smith, Nick. (November 3, 2011). "Dalrymple to run in 2012". [[Williston Herald]].
  27. Daum, Kristen M. (October 13, 2011). "N.D. tax commissioner opts against congressional bid in 2012". Flickertales from The Hill.
  28. Daum, Kristen M. (November 29, 2011). "Goettle declares as 4th GOP contender in 2012 U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill.
  29. Beitsch, Rebecca. (May 13, 2011). "Sand starts Senate campaign committee". [[Bismarck Tribune]].
  30. Trygstad, Kyle. (May 20, 2011). "Kalk to Run for House Instead of Senate in North Dakota". [[Roll Call]].
  31. Daum, Kristen M. (December 5, 2011). "West Fargo legislator seeks GOP nod in packed U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill.
  32. Miller, Tricia. (December 27, 2010). "North Dakota GOPers Target Conrad Seat". [[Roll Call]].
  33. Finneman}}{{Dead link, Teri. (February 20, 2012). "Kelly Schmidt to seek third term as North Dakota treasurer". [[The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead]].
  34. Gonzales, Nathan L. (April 26, 2011). "Berg Senate Run Likely in North Dakota". [[Roll Call]].
  35. Bunk, Matt. (June 1, 2011). "In Focus with Bismarck Mayor John Warford". [[Great Plains Examiner]].
  36. (October 13, 2012). "ND House candidates attract dueling endorsements for pro-gun groups".
  37. (June 7, 2012). "Heitkamp Leads Berg in Latest Poll". [[Gray Television]].
  38. Daum, Kristen. (May 17, 2012). "Poll: Berg leads Heitkamp in U.S. Senate race". [[Forum Communications]].
  39. "North Dakota Secretary of State".
  40. (September 6, 2012). "Candidate throws his name into the U.S. Senate Race". [[Forum Communications Company]].
  41. (November 26, 2012). "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota HEITKAMP, HEIDI". fec.gov.
  42. (November 26, 2012). "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota BERG, RICHARD A". fec.gov.
  43. "North Dakota Senate 2012 Race".
  44. "North Dakota Senate 2012 Race: Top Industries".
  45. Haberman, Maggie. (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com.
  46. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".
  47. "2012 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  48. "2012 Senate".
  49. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics.
  50. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/112348675/ND-Pharos-Poll Pharos Research]
  51. "North Dakota Polling Report: 10/26/12-10/28/12".
  52. [https://web.archive.org/web/20121103023432/http://www.valleynewslive.com/story/19945942/valley-news-live-mason-dixon-poll Mason-Dixon]
  53. [http://gallery.mailchimp.com/6ba6160c0880598e39e1b623b/files/12mem1025_f_Heitkamp.pdf The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)]
  54. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/111054878/North-Dakota-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012 Pharos Research]
  55. [https://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/heitkamp22.html The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)]
  56. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/north_dakota/election_2012_north_dakota_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  57. [https://web.archive.org/web/20121026061508/http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/377890/ Essman Research]
  58. [https://web.archive.org/web/20121011025651/http://www.valleynewslive.com/story/19767078/poll Mason-Dixon]
  59. [https://images.politico.com/global/2012/09/120928_september_survey.pdf DFM Research (D)]
  60. [https://images.politico.com/global/2012/07/survey_july_2012_dem-npl.html DFM Research (D)]
  61. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/north_dakota/north_dakota_senate_berg_r_49_heitkamp_d_40 Rasmussen Reports]
  62. [https://www.scribd.com/document/91567464/DFM-Survey-Memo-4-27 DFM Research (D)]
  63. "OFFICIAL 2012 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS".
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