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2010 United States Senate election in Nevada

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2010 United States Senate election in Nevada

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FieldValue
election_name2010 United States Senate election in Nevada
countryNevada
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2004 United States Senate election in Nevada
previous_year2004
next_election2016 United States Senate election in Nevada
next_year2016
election_dateNovember 2, 2010
image_sizex150px
image1Harry Reid official portrait 2009 (3x4).jpg
nominee1**Harry Reid**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**362,785**
percentage1**50.29%**
image2Sharron Angle (3x4).jpg
nominee2Sharron Angle
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2321,361
percentage244.55%
map_image
map_caption**Reid:**
**Angle:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionHarry Reid
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionHarry Reid
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Angle:
The 2010 United States Senate election in Nevada took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator and Majority Leader Harry Reid won re-election to a fifth and final term.

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary took place on June 8, 2010. Reid won by a large margin over a field of political unknowns.

Candidates

Nominee

  • Harry Reid, incumbent U.S. Senator

Defeated in primary

  • Alex Miller
  • Eduardo Hamilton
  • Carlo Poliak, trash collector and perennial candidate

Declined

  • Barbara Buckley, Speaker of the Nevada Assembly

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredHarry ReidBarbara Buckley
Mellman Group (D)June 17–29, 2008**51%**20%

Results

By county<ref>https://www.nvsos.gov/soselectionpages/results/2010STatewidePrimary/ElectionSummary.aspx</ref>:

| | | | | |

Republican primary

The Republican primary also took place on Tuesday, June 8, 2010.

Candidates

Nominee

  • Sharron Angle, former state assembly member and candidate for the 2nd district in 2006

Defeated in primary

  • John Chachas, businessman
  • Chad Christensen, state assemblyman
  • Greg Dagani, former member of the Nevada Board of Education
  • Chuck Flume, businessman
  • Sue Lowden, former state senator
  • Mark Noonan, Navy veteran
  • Bill Parson, Marine veteran and businessman
  • Danny Tarkanian, real estate owner

Withdrawn

  • Mark Amodei, state senator
  • Chuck Kozak, attorney dropped out of race
  • Robin L. Titus, physician dropped out of race
  • Mike Wiley, conservative activist dropped out of race

Declined

  • Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. Representative
  • Brian Krolicki, Lieutenant Governor of Nevada
  • Jon Porter, former U.S. Representative

Endorsements

;State officials

  • Sarah Palin

Organizations

  • Can-Do Conservatives of America (disabled advocacy group)
  • Change the Congress in 2010 PAC
  • Citizens United Political Victory Fund
  • Club for Growth
  • Declaration Alliance PAC
  • Government is not God PAC
  • Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund
  • Life & Liberty PAC
  • Minuteman PAC (Chris Simcox)
  • Nevada Concerned Citizens
  • Nevada Homeschool Network
  • Nevada Republican Assembly
  • Republican Liberty Caucus
  • Tea Party Express
  • Veterans in Politics
  • Western Representation PAC

;Individuals

  • Pat Boone
  • Leon Catlett, Las Vegas talk show host
  • Mark Levin
  • Joe the Plumber
  • Phyllis Schlafly, Eagle Forum

;U.S. Senators

  • Jon Kyl, Senate Minority Whip
  • Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator

;State officials

  • Robert List, former Governor of Nevada

Organizations

  • Susan B. Anthony List, pro-life organization
  • University of Nevada, Las Vegas College Republicans

;Individuals

  • Jeri Thompson, political commentator

;State officials

  • George Deukmejian, former governor of California

Organizations

  • Armenian National Committee Political Action Committee
  • Armenian Council of America Political Action Committee

;Individuals

  • Jim Gilchrist, co-founder of the Minuteman Project
  • Kim Rhode, two-time Olympic gold medal winner

Debates

Polling

Dates administeredPoll sourceTarkanianLowdenAngle
August 21, 2009Mason Dixon/LVRJ**33%**14%5%
October 8, 2009Poll21%**23%**9%
December 2009Mason Dixon/LVRJ24%**25%**13%
January 7, 2010title=Reid hits new low in pollurl=https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/reid-hits-new-low-in-poll/website=Las Vegas Review-Journalaccess-date=November 16, 2021date=January 10, 2010}}**28%**26%13%
February 24, 2010Mason Dixon/LVRJ29%**47%**8%
April 11, 2010Mason Dixon/LVRJ27%**45%**5%
April 26–28, 2010url=https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2010/4/29/861948/-title=NV-Sen: LowdenCare unpopular, Reid anemic but still alivewebsite=Daily Kos}}28%**38%**13%
May 13, 2010Mason Dixon/LVRJ22%**30%**25%
May 28, 2010Mason Dixon/LVRJ23%**30%**29%
May 31 – June 2, 2010Research 200024%25%**34%**
June 2, 2010Suffolk University26%24%**33%**
June 1–3, 2010title=Angle takes lead in GOP primaryurl=https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/angle-takes-lead-in-gop-primary/website=Las Vegas Review-Journalaccess-date=November 16, 2021date=June 6, 2010}}24%23%**32%**

Results

Results by county:

| | | | ]]

General election

Candidates

Campaign

In January 2009, the GOP began running an advertisement attacking President Barack Obama's proposed stimulus plan and Reid for his support of the legislation. Since becoming Minority Leader (in 2004), his approval ratings had dropped below 50%. A November 2007 poll showed Reid's approval rating at 39%, with 49% of voters disapproving.

After the primaries, the first poll showed Angle leading by a double-digit margin. CQ Politics changed their analysis of the race from leaning Republican to a toss-up because of Angle's sharply conservative views and tendency to commit verbal gaffes; however, CQ added that if the voters treat the election as a referendum on Reid, then Angle will likely win.

In 2009, Reid had been endorsed by some prominent Nevada Republicans. Immediately after the primary, the Republican mayor of Reno, Bob Cashell, who had backed Lowden in the Republican primary, endorsed Reid for the general election, calling Angle an "ultra-right winger." Other Republicans expressed doubt about supporting Angle, citing her reputation for ideological rigidity from her years in the state legislature.

One of the first general election ads attacked Angle for her stance on Social Security and Medicare. In response, Angle explained that "the government must continue to keep its contract with seniors, who entered into the system on good faith and now are depending on that contract." In response to accusations that she was not mainstream enough for Nevada voters, Angle explained on a KXNT radio show that she was "more mainstream than the fellow that said tourists stink, this war is lost, and light-skinned no-Negro dialect", in reference to comments that had been made by Senator Reid.

In September, Tibi Ellis, the chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Hispanic Caucus, who had been a spokesperson for Angle, criticized an Angle ad related to immigration. Ellis said, "I condemned this type of propaganda, no matter who is running them, where they blame Mexicans as the only problem and where they attack them as the only source of illegal immigration."

On October 7, 2010, Republican State Senator and Minority Leader William Raggio endorsed Reid. Dema Guinn, the widow of the late Republican Nevada Governor Kenny Guinn, endorsed Reid on October 8.

Endorsements

Newspapers

  • Las Vegas Sun
  • Reno Gazette-Journal

;State officials

  • Sarah Palin

Organizations

  • Citizens United Political Victory Fund
  • Club for Growth
  • Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund
  • Republican Liberty Caucus
  • Tea Party Express

Newspapers

  • Las Vegas Review-Journal

;Individuals

  • Pat Boone
  • Mark Levin
  • Joe the Plumber
  • Phyllis Schlafly, Eagle Forum

Debate

Angle and Reid only agreed to one debate, in which no other candidate would participate. It was held on October 14. Junior Senator John Ensign played Reid during one day of debate preparation at the Trump Plaza in Las Vegas for Angle.

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorHarry
Reid (D)Sharron
Angle (R)OthersUndecided
Rasmussen ReportsDecember 9, 2009500 (LV)±4.5%43%**47%**7%3%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)January 5–7, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%40%**45%**–15%
Rasmussen ReportsJanuary 11, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%40%**44%**10%7%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 3, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%40%**44%**7%8%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 3, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%38%**46%**11%5%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 31, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%40%**51%**6%3%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 27, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%40%**48%**7%4%
Research 2000 (Daily Kos)April 26–28, 2010600 (LV)±4.0%41%**44%**9%6%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)May 24–26, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%**42%**39%9%10%
Research 2000 (Daily Kos)May 31 – June 2, 2010600 (LV)±4.0%**42%**37%10%8%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)June 1–3, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%41%**44%**7%8%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 9, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%39%**50%**5%6%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 22, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%41%**48%**8%2%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 12, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%43%**46%**6%5%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)July 12–14, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%**44%**37%9%10%
Public Policy PollingJuly 16–18, 2010630 (RV)±3.9%**48%**46%–6%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 27, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%**45%**43%7%4%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)July 28–30, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%**43%**42%9%6%
Ipsos (Reuters)July 30–August 1, 2010462 (LV)±4.6%**48%**44%2%7%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)August 9–11, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%**46%**44%5%5%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 16, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%**47%****47%**5%2%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)August 23–25, 2010625 (LV)±4.0%**45%**44%6%5%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 1, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%**45%****45%**5%6%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)September 7–9, 2010625 (LV)±4.0%**46%**44%4%6%
Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News)September 11, 20101,000 (LV)±3.0%44%**45%**8%2%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 13, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%**48%****48%**2%3%
Opinion Research (CNN/Time)September 10–14, 2010789 (LV)±3.5%41%**42%**16%1%
Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News)September 18, 20101,000 (LV)±3.0%45%**46%**5%4%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)September 20–22, 2010625 (LV)±4.0%**43%****43%**6%8%
Public Opinion Strategies (Las Vegas Sun)September 21–23, 2010500 (LV)±4.4%**45%**40%8%7%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 28, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%**48%**47%4%1%
Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News)October 2, 20101,000 (LV)±3.0%46%**49%**5%0%
Magellan StrategiesOctober 4, 20101,408 (V)±2.6%43%**48%**5%4%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 5, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%46%**50%**2%2%
Public Policy PollingOctober 7–9, 2010504 (LV)±4.4%**47%**45%7%1%
Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News)October 9, 20101,000 (LV)±3.0%47%**49%**4%0%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 11, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%48%**49%**1%2%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)October 11–12, 2010625 (LV)±4.0%45%**47%**4%4%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 17, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%47%**50%**2%1%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 25, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%45%**49%**4%2%
Opinion Research (CNN/Time)October 20–26, 2010773 (LV)±3.5%45%**49%**5%1%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal)October 25–27, 2010625 (LV)±4.0%45%**49%**3%3%
Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News)October 30, 20101,000 (LV)±3.0%45%**48%**7%0%
Public Policy PollingOctober 30–31, 2010682 (LV)±3.8%46%**47%**6%1%

Predictions

Reid was initially considered vulnerable, with the non-partisan Cook Political Report rating the election as a tossup and the Rothenberg Political Report rating the state as tossup. A June 9, 2010, Rasmussen Reports post-primary poll showed Angle leading incumbent Senator Harry Reid by a margin of 50% to 39%. However, a July 2010 poll showed Senator Reid leading Angle by 7 points, following nationwide attention to some of Angle's positions, as well as the endorsement of Reid by prominent Republicans. The change of margin, 18% in less than a month, is the largest in Senate elections history. On July 28, 2010, Rasmussen Reports moved the race from tossup to leans Democratic. Later, it moved back to tossup. Polls generally had Angle up, and thus Reid seemed like the underdog. Journalist Jon Ralston correctly predicted Reid would win based on early voting numbers and Reid running a strong campaign.

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political ReportOctober 26, 2010
RothenbergOctober 22, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPoliticsOctober 26, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 26, 2010
New York TimesNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEightNovember 1, 2010

Results

Despite Angle leading by three points in the polls the days leading up to the election, Reid defeated Angle by 5.74%, even defeating Angle in her own county, Washoe County. Reid also secured huge numbers out of the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, which covers the Las Vegas Metropolitan Area.

By county

CountyReid%Angle%Others%
**Carson City**8,71444.64%**9,362****47.96%**1,4437.39%
**Churchill**2,47327.80%**5,639****63.40%**7838.80%
**Clark****253,617****54.41%**192,51641.30%20,0304.30%
**Douglas**7,53034.57%**12,858****59.04%**1,3926.39%
**Elko**3,24625.24%**8,173****63.56%**1,44011.20%
**Esmeralda**8020.15%**268****67.51%**4912.34%
**Eureka**13718.05%**524****69.04%**9812.91%
**Humboldt**1,60032.12%**2,836****56.92%**54610.96%
**Lander**48725.60%**1,201****63.14%**21411.25%
**Lincoln**44222.68%**1,311****67.27%**19610.06%
**Lyon**5,65932.39%**10,473****59.95%**1,3397.66%
**Mineral****855****44.93%**82243.19%22611.88%
**Nye**5,27936.66%**7,822****54.32%**1,2989.01%
**Pershing**59734.39%**915****52.71%**22412.90%
**Storey**84339.50%**1,124****52.67%**1677.83%
**Washoe****70,523****49.91%**63,31644.81%7,4485.27%
**White Pine**70321.51%**2,201****67.33%**36511.17%

;Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Carson City
  • Humboldt (largest municipality: Winnemucca)
  • Nye (largest municipality: Pahrump)
  • Pershing (largest municipality: Lovelock)
  • Storey (largest municipality: Virginia City)
  • White Pine (largest municipality: Ely)

Analysis

In its analysis of Reid's victory over Angle, Politico reported that the Reid campaign had placed advertisements opposing Angle's main primary opponent, Sue Lowden. The purpose of the ads was to enhance the "polarizing" Angle's chances of winning the Republican nomination.

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Sharron Angle (R)$27,797,915$27,505,917$291,999$635,737
Harry Reid (D)$19,185,317$22,325,360$176,309$419,093
Source: Federal Election Commission

Notes

References

References

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