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2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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FieldValue
election_name2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
countryMassachusetts
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2010 United States Senate special election in Massachusetts
previous_year2010 (special)
next_election2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
next_year2018
election_date
image_sizex150px
image1File:Elizabeth Warren--Official 113th Congressional Portrait-- (cropped).jpg
nominee1**Elizabeth Warren**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**1,696,346**
percentage1**53.74%**
image2File:Sbrownofficial.jpg
nominee2Scott Brown
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote21,458,048
percentage246.19%
map_image{{switcher
default1
map_size250px
map_caption**Warren:**
**Brown:**
**Tie:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionScott Brown
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionElizabeth Warren
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

|[[File:2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts results map by county.svg|300px]] |County results |[[File:2012 United States Senate Election in Massachusetts by Municipality.svg|300px|]] |Municipality results |[[File:2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts results map by congressional district.svg|300px|]] |Congressional district results |[[File:MA Senate 2012.svg|300px|]] |Precinct results Brown:
Tie: The 2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held in Massachusetts on November 6, 2012. Democrat Elizabeth Warren defeated incumbent Republican Senator Scott Brown. This election was held concurrently with the U.S. presidential election and elections to the U.S. Senate in other states, as well as elections to the House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Brown ran for re-election to a first full term. He was first elected in a 2010 special election triggered by the death of incumbent Democratic senator Ted Kennedy. Brown was unopposed in the 2012 Republican primary. For the Democrats, an initial wide field of prospective candidates narrowed after the entry of Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren, the architect of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Warren clinched near-unanimous party support, with all but one of the other Democratic candidates withdrawing following her entrance. After winning her party's nomination, she faced Brown in the general election.

The election was one of the most-followed races in 2012 and cost approximately $82 million, which made it the most expensive election in Massachusetts history and the second-most expensive in the entire 2012 election cycle, next to the presidential race; this was despite the two candidates' having agreed not to allow outside money to influence the race. Opinion polling indicated a close race for much of the campaign, though Warren opened up a small but consistent lead in the final few weeks. She went on to defeat Brown by over 236,000 votes, 54% to 46%. Despite his loss, Brown received 8.6% more of the state vote than Republican former governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney did in the concurrent presidential election and won 5 counties that voted Democratic in the concurrent presidential race: Barnstable, Essex, Norfolk, Plymouth, and Worcester.

This is the last Massachusetts U.S. Senate race that was decided by a single-digit margin or where the incumbent was defeated. Brown was the only incumbent U.S. senator to lose a general election in 2012. He later moved to New Hampshire where he ran for U.S. Senate and lost in 2014. Warren was sworn in on January 3, 2013.

Background

Democratic U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy was re-elected in 2006, and died on August 25, 2009, from a malignant brain tumor. On September 24, 2009, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick appointed longtime friend of Kennedy and former Democratic National Committee chairman Paul G. Kirk to succeed Kennedy until a special election could be held. Kirk's appointment was especially controversial, as the governor's ability to appoint an interim senator was removed during the Romney administration by the Democratic-controlled legislature, as a precaution if senator and presidential nominee John Kerry was elected president in 2004. Laws surrounding Senate appointment were quickly changed following Kennedy's death. The Massachusetts Republican Party sued in an attempt to halt Kirk's appointment, but it was rejected by Suffolk Superior Court Judge Thomas Connolly.

In the special election held on January 19, 2010, Republican state senator Scott Brown defeated Democratic state attorney general Martha Coakley in an upset victory. Brown thus became the first Republican to be elected from Massachusetts to the United States Senate since Edward Brooke in 1972, and he began serving the remainder of Kennedy's term on February 4, 2010.

Republican primary

The National Republican Trust PAC, a group integral to Brown's 2010 election, vowed to draft a conservative opponent, citing dissatisfaction with his vote in support of the New START nuclear arms treaty. However, Brown went unopposed in the Republican primary.

Candidates

  • Scott Brown, incumbent U.S. Senator

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
BrownMore conservative
challengerOtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 16–18, 2011255±6.1%**70%**21%9%

Results

Democratic primary

The Massachusetts Democratic Convention was held on June 2, 2012, where Warren received 95.77% of delegate votes. As the only candidate with 15% of delegate votes necessary to qualify for the primary ballot, Warren eliminated her challenger Marisa DeFranco, becoming the de facto nominee. The Democratic primary was held on September 6, 2012, with Warren running unopposed.

Candidates

Declared

  • Nominee: Elizabeth Warren, Harvard Law School professor and architect of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
  • Eliminated at convention: Marisa DeFranco, immigration lawyer who ran an "unabashedly liberal" campaign

Withdrew

  • Tom Conroy, state representative (withdrew December 12, 2011)
  • Alan Khazei, founder of City Year (withdrew October 26, 2011)
  • James Coyne King, corporate lawyer (withdrew March 21, 2012)
  • Bob Massie, entrepreneur and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts in 1994 (withdrew October 7, 2011)
  • Herb Robinson, engineer (withdrew December 15, 2011)
  • Setti Warren, mayor of Newton (withdrew September 29, 2011; endorsed E. Warren, no relation)

Declined

  • Mike Capuano, U.S. Representative
  • Kim Driscoll, mayor of Salem
  • Barney Frank, U.S. Representative
  • Joseph P. Kennedy II, former U.S. Representative
  • Victoria Reggie Kennedy, Ted Kennedy's widow
  • Stephen Lynch, U.S. Representative
  • Rachel Maddow, television host and political commentator
  • Marty Meehan, former U.S. Representative
  • Thomas Menino, mayor of Boston
  • Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts
  • John F. Tierney, U.S. Representative
  • Warren Tolman, former state senator and former state representative

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTom
ConroyMarisa
DeFrancoJim
KingAlan
KhazeiBob
MassieHerb
RobinsonElizabeth
WarrenSetti
WarrenOtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 16–18, 2011461±4.6%7%2%9%2%1%**55%**1%22%
UMass LowellSeptember 22–28, 20111,005±3.8%5%4%3%3%1%**36%**3%1%32%
YouGov for UMass AmherstNovember 9–22, 2011122±4.6%7%6%2%**73%**13%
Suffolk University/[7NEWS](7news)February 11–15, 2012218±?%5%1%**72%**20%
Suffolk University/[7NEWS](7news)May 20–22, 2012284±?%6%**71%**12%

Results

General election

Campaign

On September 14, 2011, Warren declared her intention to run for the Democratic nomination for the 2012 election in Massachusetts for the United States Senate. The seat had been won by Republican Scott Brown in a 2010 special election after the death of Ted Kennedy.

Warren won the Democratic nomination on June 2, 2012, at the state Democratic convention with a record 95.77% of the votes of delegates. She was endorsed by the Governor of Massachusetts, Deval Patrick. Warren and her opponent Scott Brown agreed to engage in four televised debates, including one with a consortium of media outlets in Springfield and one on WBZ-TV in Boston. Brown ran as a moderate, stressing his ability to cross party lines and highlighting his votes for the Dodd-Frank financial reform law and to repeal "don't ask, don't tell". Warren campaigned on a platform championing the middle class, and supporting Wall Street regulation. Warren criticized Brown for continually voting with Republican leadership, and argued that he was not the bipartisan moderate he claimed to be. A staple of Brown's attack tactics against Warren was his consistent reference to her as "Professor Warren", in attempt to portray her as an elitist academic. Brown faced blowback after the second debate, during which he claimed conservative Antonin Scalia was a "model" Supreme Court Justice, prompting boos from the debate audience.

Warren spoke at the 2012 Democratic National Convention immediately before Bill Clinton on the penultimate night of the convention. Warren contrasted President Obama's economic plan with Mitt Romney's in the 2012 election and rebuked the Republican Party's economic policy stating: "Their vision is clear: 'I've got mine, and the rest of you are on your own.'" Warren positioned herself as a champion of a beleaguered middle class that, as she said, "has been chipped, squeezed and hammered." According to Warren, "People feel like the system is rigged against them. And here's the painful part: They're right. The system is rigged." Warren said that Wall Street CEOs "wrecked our economy and destroyed millions of jobs" and that they "still strut around congress, no shame, demanding favors, and acting like we should thank them." Brown attended the 2012 Republican National Convention, but was not a speaker there. According to Brown, he had rejected an offer to play a larger role, and limited his attendance to a single day because of scheduling demands.

Following Todd Akin's controversial "legitimate rape" comments, Brown was the first sitting senator to demand he drop out of the Missouri U.S. Senate race. Brown's campaign had been endorsed by many Massachusetts Democrats, many of whom were prominently featured in his campaign ads.

In September 2011, a video of Warren explaining her approach to economic policy gained popularity on the internet. In the video, Warren rebuts the charge that asking the rich to pay more taxes is "class warfare", pointing out that no one grew rich in America without depending on infrastructure paid for by the rest of society, stating:

On July 13, 2012, President Obama sparked a controversy when he echoed her thoughts in a campaign speech saying, "Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you've got a business—you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."

Warren at a campaign event, November 2012

Warren encountered significant opposition from business interests. In August 2012, Rob Engstrom, political director for the United States Chamber of Commerce, claimed that "no other candidate in 2012 represents a greater threat to free enterprise than Professor Warren." She nonetheless raised $39 million for her campaign, the most of any Senate candidate in 2012.

Results by municipality

Native American ancestry controversy

In April 2012, the Boston Herald sparked an election controversy when it drew attention to Warren's Association of American Law Schools (AALS) directory entries from 1986 to 1995, which listed her as a minority professor. According to the AALS, the directory was compiled by information supplied by law school deans, based on questionnaires filled out by individual teachers. Warren stated that she had self-identified as having Native American ancestry in order to meet others with a similar background. Harvard Law School had listed her as a minority professor in response to criticisms about a lack of faculty diversity, but Warren said that she was unaware of this until she read about it in a newspaper during the 2012 election.

Her opponent Scott Brown speculated that she had fabricated a native ancestry to gain an advantage in the employment market; the Brown campaign used Warren's lineage in several attack ads. In response, Warren's brothers issued a joint statement stating that they "grew up listening to our mother and grandmother and other relatives talk about our family's Cherokee and Delaware heritage". Brian Leiter of the Chicago Law School dismissed the allegations against Warren, noting that law schools have "no pressure to hire Native Americans for affirmative action reasons", and that Warren's record of scholarship was "clearly sufficient to get her appointed at Harvard". Several Brown staffers mocked Warren by doing the "tomahawk chop" at a Brown campaign rally, which Brown said he did not condone.

According to the New England Historical Genealogical Society, several members of Warren's maternal family claim Cherokee heritage; the society found a family newsletter that alluded to a marriage license application that listed Elizabeth Warren's great-great-great-grandmother as a Cherokee, but could not find the primary document and found no proof of Warren's Native American heritage. Some members of the Cherokee Nation protested her claim to Native American ancestry and questioned whether she benefitted from it. Former colleagues and supervisors at the universities where she had worked (including Charles Fried, former Solicitor General under President Ronald Reagan) said Warren's ancestry was either not mentioned, or played no role in her hiring.

The question of Warren's ancestry was pressed by the Brown campaign throughout the election. However, polls showed that most voters said that the controversy would not impact their vote in the election. Warren's 2014 autobiography devoted a section to the allegations, describing them as untrue and hurtful. In 2018, Warren released the results of a DNA test that strongly suggests that she had a Native American ancestor six to ten generations ago, and suggests Warren is between 1/64th and 1/1,024th Native American.

Endorsements

Politicians

  • Bob Ambler, Democratic former state representative
  • Robert A. Antonioni, Democratic former state senator
  • Kelly Ayotte, U.S. Senator (R-NH)
  • Michael Bloomberg, mayor of New York City
  • Arthur Broadhurst, Democratic former state representative
  • Paul C. Casey, Democratic former state representative
  • Paul Cellucci, former governor of Massachusetts and U.S. Ambassador to Canada
  • Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey
  • Susan Collins, U.S. Senator (R-ME)
  • Robert Durand, Democratic former state representative
  • Lewis Evangelidis, Worcester County Sheriff
  • Christopher Fallon, Democratic State Representative, 33rd Middlesex District
  • Kimberly Ferguson, State Representative, 1st Worcester District
  • Raymond Flynn, former mayor of Boston and U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See
  • Larry Giordano, Democratic former state representative
  • Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City
  • Geoff Hall, Democratic former state representative
  • Bradley Jones, Jr., Minority Leader of the Massachusetts House of Representatives
  • Judith Flanagan Kennedy, mayor of Lynn
  • Michael Knapik, State Senator, 2nd Hampden and Hampshire District
  • Richard Lugar, U.S. Senator (R-IN)
  • Konstantina Lukes, Democratic City Councilor and former mayor of Worcester
  • John McCain, U.S. Senator (R-AZ)
  • David Nangle, Democratic State Representative, 17th Middlesex District
  • Shaunna O'Connell, State Representative, 3rd Bristol District
  • Keiko Orrall, State Representative, 12th Bristol District
  • Marie Parente, Democratic former state representative
  • Karyn Polito, former state representative
  • Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator (R-FL)
  • Charles Ryan, Democratic former mayor of Springfield
  • Olympia Snowe, U.S. Senator (R-ME)
  • Philip Travis, Democratic former state representative
  • Anthony Verga, Democratic former state representative
  • William Weld, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Christine Todd Whitman, former Governor of New Jersey
  • Donald Wong, State Representative, 9th Essex District

Labor unions

  • Boston Police Superior Officers Federation
  • MBTA Police Patrolmen's Association
  • MBTA Police Sergeants Association
  • State Police Association of Massachusetts

Military

  • Thomas J. Hudner, Jr., Medal of Honor recipient
  • Thomas G. Kelley, Medal of Honor recipient and former Massachusetts Secretary of Veterans' Services

Newspapers

  • Boston Herald
  • Cape Cod Times
  • The Daily Free Press
  • The Eagle-Tribune
  • The Enterprise
  • Gloucester Daily Times
  • Newburyport Daily News
  • The Patriot Ledger
  • The Salem News
  • Sentinel & Enterprise
  • The Sun
  • Worcester Telegram & Gazette

Individuals

  • Drew Bledsoe, retired New England Patriots player
  • Lenny Clarke, comedian
  • Bob Cousy, retired Boston Celtics player
  • Dave Cowens, retired Boston Celtics player
  • Steve DeOssie, retired New England Patriots player
  • Steve Grogan, retired New England Patriots player
  • Wendy Murphy, newspaper columnist and co-host on WRKO talk radio
  • Fred Smerlas, retired New England Patriots player
  • JoJo White, retired Boston Celtics player

Organizations

  • ConservAmerica
  • GOProud
  • Humane Society Legislative Fund
  • Log Cabin Republicans
  • Massachusetts Citizens for Life
  • National Federation of Independent Business
  • Republican Majority for Choice
  • United States Chamber of Commerce

Rescinded

  • Micky Ward, boxer

Politicians

  • Sheila Bair, Republican former Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
  • Bill Bradley, former U.S. Senator (D-NJ)
  • Gary Christenson, mayor of Malden
  • Max Cleland, former U.S. Senator (D-GA)
  • Bill Clinton, former president of the United States
  • Tom Conroy, State Representative, 13th Middlesex District
  • Joseph Curtatone, mayor of Somerville
  • Howard Dean, 2004 Presidential Candidate and former governor of Vermont and Chairman of the DNC
  • Rosa DeLauro, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Connecticut
  • Robert DeLeo, Speaker of the Massachusetts House of Representatives, 19th Suffolk District
  • Michael Dukakis, former governor of Massachusetts
  • Russ Feingold, former U.S. Senator (D-WI)
  • Barney Frank, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts
  • Al Franken, U.S. Senator (D-MN)
  • Kamala Harris, Attorney General of California
  • Patrick J. Kennedy, former U.S. Representative from Rhode Island and son of Ted Kennedy
  • John Kerry, U.S. Senator (D-MA)
  • Alan Khazei, social entrepreneur
  • John Lewis, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Georgia
  • Raymond Mariano, former mayor of Worcester
  • Michael J. McGlynn, mayor of Medford
  • Jim McGovern, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts
  • Thomas Menino, mayor of Boston
  • Barbara Mikulski, U.S. Senator (D-MD)
  • Alex Morse, mayor of Holyoke
  • Patrick O. Murphy, mayor of Lowell
  • Therese Murray, President of the Massachusetts Senate, Plymouth and Barnstable District
  • Tim Murray, lieutenant governor of Massachusetts
  • Richard Neal, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts
  • Barack Obama, president of the United States
  • Joseph C. O'Brien, former mayor of Worcester
  • John Olver, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts
  • Deval Patrick, governor of Massachusetts
  • Joseph Petty, mayor of Worcester
  • Sharon Pollard, former mayor of Methuen
  • Ayanna Pressley, member of the Boston City Council
  • Stan Rosenberg, President Pro Tempore of the Massachusetts Senate, Hampshire and Franklin District
  • Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator (I-VT)
  • John Scibak, State Representative, 2nd Hampshire District
  • Kathleen Sebelius, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services and former governor of Kansas
  • Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. Senator (D-NH)
  • Ellen Story, State Representative, 3rd Hampshire District
  • Niki Tsongas, member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts
  • Setti Warren, mayor of Newton

Labor unions

  • Massachusetts AFL–CIO
  • Massachusetts Nurses Association
  • Massachusetts Service Employees International Union
  • National Education Association
  • United Auto Workers

Newspapers

  • The Berkshire Eagle
  • The Boston Globe
  • The Harvard Crimson
  • The MetroWest Daily News
  • The Republican
  • The Standard-Times
  • The Sun Chronicle

Individuals

  • Ben Affleck, actor
  • Archbishop Timothy Paul Baymon, president of the Council of Churches of Greater Springfield
  • Cher, singer and actress
  • Sandra Fluke, women's rights activist
  • Jennifer Garner, actress
  • Caroline Kennedy, daughter of John F. Kennedy
  • Edward M. Kennedy, Jr., investment banker and son of Ted Kennedy
  • Joseph P. Kennedy III, candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts
  • Bob Massie, priest, author, and social activist
  • Reverend Eugene Rivers, co-founder of the Boston TenPoint Coalition
  • Bruce Springsteen, singer
  • James Taylor, singer

Organizations

  • Clean Water Action
  • Council for a Livable World
  • Democracy for America
  • EMILY's List
  • Human Rights Campaign
  • Massachusetts Democratic Party
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America
  • National Organization for Women
  • Planned Parenthood
  • Progressive Democrats of America
  • Sierra Club
  • Young Democrats of America

Debates

Both candidates agreed to four televised debates, three of which were held. The candidates agreed to a fourth debate which was to be held on October 30 in WGBH-TV's studio, hosted by a Boston media consortium, and moderated by John King, but the day before both pulled out due to Hurricane Sandy. Victoria Kennedy, widow of Ted Kennedy, had proposed an additional debate with Tom Brokaw as moderator, but Brown would only accept the invitation if she pledged not to endorse Brown's opponent, which she refused.

Debate 1: September 20 at WBZ-TV studio, hosted by WBZ and WBZ Newsradio 1030. Moderated by the station's political reporter Jon Keller.

Debate 2: October 1 at UMass Lowell, co-hosted by UMass and the Boston Herald. Moderated by David Gregory.

Debate 3: October 10 at Springfield Symphony Hall, hosted by a Western Massachusetts consortium. Moderated by WGBY-TV's Jim Madigan.

Fundraising

The election cost approximately $82 million, making it the most expensive election in Massachusetts' history and of any Congressional race in history up to that point, as well as the second-most expensive election in the 2012 election cycle, behind only the 2012 presidential election.

The People's Pledge

Both Warren and Brown stated early in the race that they would not accept television advertisement assistance from Super PACs and interest groups. On January 23, 2012, both candidates signed the agreement, or People's Pledge. While no outside groups were obligated by the agreement, both candidates agreed to donate a sum equal to 50% of an advertisement run by any groups to a charity of the other candidate's choice. The pledge was broken twice, by Brown supporters. In March the American Petroleum Institute and Coalition of Americans for Political Equality launched ads supporting Brown, and as a result, the Brown campaign agreed to make donations of $1,000 and $34,545, respectively, to the charity of Warren's choice: the Autism Consortium.

Top donors

Contributions by affiliation

Source: OpenSecrets 2012

Scott BrownElizabeth WarrenContributorContributionContributorContribution
Fidelity Investments$289,455EMILY's List$507,095
EMC Corporation$169,800Moveon.org$448,517
Goldman Sachs$119,400Harvard University$304,050
VoteSane PAC$113,250MIT$77,200
State Street Corp$106,650Boston University$73,700
MassMutual$106,198Brown Rudnick LLP$68,077
Raytheon$89,350University of California$63,600
Liberty Mutual$85,500League of Conservation Voters$54,551
JPMorgan Chase$80,855Ropes & Gray$52,950
PricewaterhouseCoopers$79,800Thornton & Naumes$44,450

Contributions by industry

Source: OpenSecrets 2012

Scott BrownElizabeth WarrenIndustryContributionIndustryContribution
Retired$3,574,088Retired$3,374,569
Securities & Investment$3,370,618Lawyers/Law Firms$2,196,972
Lawyers/Law Firms$1,332,582Women's Issues$1,588,383
Real Estate$1,192,258Education$1,335,058
Insurance$914,504Democratic/Liberal$1,253,375
Health Professionals$877,878Securities & Investment$534,275
Misc Finance$828,501TV/Movies/Music$476,814
Business Services$661,647Health Professionals$456,006
Computer industry/Internet$637,825Business Services$455,291
Republican/Conservative$616,158Printing & Publishing$387,031

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Elizabeth
Warren (D)OtherUndecided
W. New England U.March 6–10, 2011472 RV±4.5%**51%**34%14%
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2011957 RV±3.2%**47%**32%21%
WBUR MassIncAugust 30 – September 1, 2011500±4.4%**44%**35%2%19%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 16–18, 2011957 RV±3.2%44%**46%**10%
UMass LowellSeptember 22–28, 20111,005 RV±3.8%**41%**38%3%14%
W. New England U.September 29 – October 5, 2011475 RV±4.5%**47%**42%10%
YouGov for UMass AmherstNovember 9–22, 2011433 RV±4.4%39%**43%**4%14%
UMass Lowell /Boston HeraldDecember 1–6, 2011505 RV±5.3%42%**49%**3%6%
Opinion Dynamics for Mass InsightJanuary 31 – February 4, 2012456 RV±4.6%**52%**42%6%
MassINC for WBURFebruary 6–9, 2012505 LV±4.4%43%**46%**1%11%
Suffolk/WHDHFebruary 11–15, 2012600 LV±4%**49%**40%2%9%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 29, 2012500 LV±4.5%**49%**44%2%5%
W. New England U.February 23 – March 1, 2012527 RV±4.3%**49%**41%10%
Public Policy PollingMarch 16–18, 2012936 RV±3.2%41%**46%**13%
Boston GlobeMarch 21–27, 2012544 LV±4.2%**37%**35%26%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 9, 2012500 LV±4.5%45%**46%**1%8%
MassINC for MassLiveApril 25–28, 2012438 LV±4.7%41%**43%**1%12%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 7, 2012500 LV±4.5%**45%****45%**2%8%
Suffolk/WHDHMay 20–22, 2012600 LV±4%**48%**47%5%
Boston GlobeMay 25–31, 2012651 LV±3.8%**39%**37%2%23%
W. New England U.May 29–31, 2012504 RV±4.4%43%**45%**11%
Public Policy PollingJune 22–24, 2012902 RV±3.3%**46%****46%**8%
MassINCJuly 19–22, 2012445 RV±4.4%38%**40%**16%
Public Policy PollingAugust 16–19, 20121,115 LV±4.4%**49%**44%8%
Kimball Political ConsultingAugust 21, 20121,500 RV±4%**49%**43%9%
Kimball Political ConsultingSeptember 7–9, 2012756 LV±3.5%**46%**45%9%
W. New England U.September 6–13, 2012444 LV±4.6%44%**50%**6%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 13–16, 2012876 LV±3.3%46%**48%**6%
Suffolk/WHDHSeptember 13–16, 2012600 LV±4%44%**48%**8%
UMass Lowell /Boston HeraldSeptember 13–17, 2012497 LV±4%**49%**45%1%4%
MassINC for WBURSeptember 15–17, 2012507 LV±4.4%40%**45%**2%12%
Kimball Political ConsultingSeptember 20, 2012868 LV±3.25%**48%**47%1%3%
UMass Lowell /Boston HeraldSeptember 20, 2012524 RV±5.3%**50%**44%1%5%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 24, 2012500 LV±4.5%**48%****48%**5%
Boston GlobeSeptember 21–27, 2012502 LV±4.4%38%**43%**1%18%
WBURSeptember 26–28, 2012504 LV±4.4%45%**49%**1%6%
Opinion Dynamics for Mass InsightSeptember 25–30, 2012329 LV±5.4%44%**48%**8%
W. New England U.September 28 – October 4, 2012440 LV±4.3%45%**50%**5%
MassINC for WBUROctober 5–7, 2012501 LV±4.4%**48%**45%1%8%
YouGov for UMass AmherstOctober 2–8, 2012436 LV±5.4%45%**48%**6%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 10, 2012500 LV±4.5%47%**49%**4%
YouGovOctober 4–11, 2012669 LV±4.9%39%**46%**15%
Public Policy PollingOctober 9–11, 20121,051 LV±3%44%**50%**6%
Public Policy Polling for the LCVOctober 15–16, 2012709 LV±3.5%44%**53%**
Kimball Political ConsultingOctober 18–21, 2012761 LV±3.5%45%**48%**7%
MassINC for WBUROctober 21–22, 2012516 LV±4.4%44%**50%**1%4%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 25, 2012500 LV±4.5%47%**52%**
Boston GlobeOctober 24–28, 2012583 LV±4.1%**47%****47%**6%
Suffolk/WHDHOctober 25–28, 2012600 LV±4%46%**53%**1%
W. New England U.October 26 – November 1, 2012535 LV±4%46%**50%**4%
Public Policy PollingNovember 1–2, 20121,089 LV±3%46%**52%**2%
UMass Lowell/Boston HeraldOctober 31 – November 3, 2012800 LV±4.1%**49%**48%1%1%
  • RV= Registered voters; LV= Likely voters
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Mike
Capuano (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 29 – December 1, 2010500±4.4%**52%**36%12%
Western N.E. CollegeMarch 6–10, 2011472±4.5%**51%**38%10%
[7News](7news)/Suffolk UniversityApril 3–5, 2011500±4.4%**52%**26%1%21%
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2011957±3.2%**48%**38%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Martha
Coakley (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2011957±3.2%**49%**40%10%
UMass LowellSeptember 22–28, 20111,005±3.8%**41%**40%4%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Tom
Conroy (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 16–18, 2011957±3.2%**50%**31%18%
UMass LowellSeptember 22–28, 2011499±5.4%**46%**25%5%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Marisa
DeFranco (D)OtherUndecided
UMass LowellSeptember 22–28, 2011499±5.4%**48%**22%4%26%
Suffolk/WHDHFebruary 11–15, 2012600±4%**55%**22%2%22%
Suffolk/WHDHMay 20–22, 2012600±4%**49%**28%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Alan
Khazei (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2011957±3.2%**50%**31%19%
WBUR MassIncAugust 30 – September 1, 2011500±4.4%**45%**30%2%22%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 16–18, 2011957±3.2%**48%**33%18%
UMass LowellSeptember 22–28, 2011506±5.3%**40%**28%6%26%
Western N.E. CollegeSeptember 29 – October 5, 2011475±4.5%**52%**35%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Joseph P.
Kennedy II (D)OtherUndecided
[7News](7news)/Suffolk UniversityApril 3–5, 2011500±4.4%**45%**40%14%
UMass LowellSeptember 22–28, 2011499±5.4%37%**45%**4%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Vicki
Kennedy (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 29 – December 1, 2010500±4.4%**48%**41%11%
[7News](7news)/Suffolk UniversityApril 3–5, 2011500±4.4%**52%**30%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Jim
King (D)OtherUndecided
Suffolk/WHDHFebruary 11–15, 2012600±4%**57%**21%2%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Stephen
Lynch (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 29 – December 1, 2010500±4.4%**49%**30%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Rachel
Maddow (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2011957±3.2%**49%**29%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Ed
Markey (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 29 – December 1, 2010500±4.4%**49%**39%13%
[7News](7news)/Suffolk UniversityApril 3–5, 2011500±4.4%**53%**26%20%
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2011957±3.2%**47%**37%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Bob
Massie (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2011957±3.2%**48%**25%27%
WBUR MassIncAugust 30 – September 1, 2011500±4.4%**45%**29%3%23%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 16–18, 2011957±3.2%**49%**31%21%
UMass LowellSeptember 22–28, 2011506±5.4%**43%**27%5%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Tim
Murray (D)OtherUndecided
[7News](7news)/Suffolk UniversityApril 3–5, 2011500±4.4%**51%**23%1%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Deval
Patrick (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 29 – December 1, 2010500±4.4%**49%**42%9%
[7News](7news)/Suffolk UniversityApril 3–5, 2011500±4.4%**52%**37%11%
UMass LowellSeptember 22–28, 2011506±5.4%36%**43%**5%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Herb
Robinson (D)OtherUndecided
UMass LowellSeptember 22–28, 2011499±5.4%**51%**18%5%25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
Brown (R)Setti
Warren (D)OtherUndecided
[7News](7news)/Suffolk UniversityApril 3–5, 2011500±4.4%**52%**9%3%36%
Public Policy PollingJune 2–5, 2011957±3.2%**48%**23%29%
WBUR MassIncAugust 30 – September 1, 2011500±4.4%**46%**28%3%24%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 16–18, 2011957±3.2%**47%**32%21%
UMass LowellSeptember 22–28, 2011506±5.4%**43%**28%6%23%

Results

Despite the Obama campaign's easy victory in the state, and winning all of the state's counties, Warren significantly underperformed Obama's margin. As expected, Warren performed very well in Suffolk County, which is home to the state's largest city and its capital Boston. Brown performed well in the southern part of the state near Cape Cod. Warren made history by becoming the first Massachusetts woman elected to the U.S. Senate.

By county

CountyElizabeth Warren
DemocraticScott Brown
RepublicanAll others#%#%#%BarnstableBerkshireBristolDukesEssexFranklinHampdenHampshireMiddlesexNantucketNorfolkPlymouthSuffolkWorcesterTotals
63,27747.6**69,597****52.4**420.01
**45,256****70.7**18,68329.2320.1
**125,906****52.4**114,27747.61080.01
**7,387****67.7**3,52032.350.01
180,86149.5**184,225****50.4**1890.1
**25,114****66.7**12,49533.2270.1
**108,414****54.4**90,53845.52160.1
**52,417****65.7**27,82734.2750.1
**420,142****55.9**331,00444.05450.1
**3,435****56.4**2,65343.630.01
174,26949.0**181,187****50.9**2,5840.1
111,64343.6**144,172****56.3**1370.1
**208,779****72.6**78,46927.32930.1
168,44645.8**199,401****54.2**2640.1
**1,696,346****53.74**1,458,04846.192,1590.07

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Bristol (largest municipality: New Bedford)
  • Hampden (largest municipality: Springfield)

By congressional district

Warren won five of nine congressional districts, while Brown won four, which all elected Democrats.

DistrictBrownWarrenRepresentative1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
42.83%**57.17%**John Olver ([112th Congress](112th-united-states-congress))
Richard Neal ([113th Congress](113th-united-states-congress))
48.55%**51.45%**Richard Neal ([112th Congress](112th-united-states-congress))
Jim McGovern ([113th Congress](113th-united-states-congress))
**50.82%**49.18%Jim McGovern ([112th Congress](112th-united-states-congress))
Niki Tsongas ([113th Congress](113th-united-states-congress))
**50.35%**49.65%Barney Frank ([112th Congress](112th-united-states-congress))
Joe Kennedy III ([113th Congress](113th-united-states-congress))
41.22%**58.78%**Niki Tsongas ([112th Congress](112th-united-states-congress))
Ed Markey ([113th Congress](113th-united-states-congress))
**53.62%**46.38%John F. Tierney
21.36%**78.64%**Ed Markey ([112th Congress](112th-united-states-congress))
Michael Capuano ([113th Congress](113th-united-states-congress))
49.90%**50.10%**Michael Capuano ([112th Congress](112th-united-states-congress))
Stephen Lynch ([113th Congress](113th-united-states-congress))
**51.12%**48.88%Stephen Lynch ([112th Congress](112th-united-states-congress))
Bill Keating ([113th Congress](113th-united-states-congress))

Aftermath

A report by Common Cause found that the People's Pledge resulted in fewer attack ads on the airwaves. A People's Pledge was implemented in the Democratic primary for the 2013 Senate special election in Massachusetts and the Democratic primary for the 2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.

Less than two months after the election, President Barack Obama nominated Senator John Kerry to become United States Secretary of State. Kerry was sworn in on February 1, making newly inaugurated Warren the state's senior Senator, and the Senate's most-junior senior senator. In the special election to replace Kerry the following year, Democratic nominee Ed Markey asked his Republican rival Gabriel E. Gomez to sign a similar pledge with him, although Gomez refused.

The election was a critical event in both candidates' political careers, with Warren becoming a political icon after entering the Senate, and being drafted to run for president in 2016 and eventually running in 2020. After the election loss, Brown was considered the most prominent Republican in Massachusetts and heavily favored to run in the special Senate election the following year or for governor in 2014, though he declined to do either. He instead moved to New Hampshire and ran for the Senate there in 2014 against Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen. He lost, 51% to 48%, becoming the first male candidate to lose two Senate races to female candidates.

References

Notes

:A. The Western Massachusetts consortium consists of The Republican, Daily Hampshire Gazette, New England Public Radio, Valley Press Club, Springfield Public Forum, WSHM-LD, WWLP-TV, WGGB-TV, WGBY-TV, Western New England University, and University of Massachusetts Amherst. :B. The Boston media consortium consists of WGBH-TV/WGBH FM, WBUR, New England Cable News, WCVB-TV, WHDH, and The Boston Globe. :C. The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families. Organization totals include subsidiaries and affiliates.

Citations

References

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  128. (October 31, 2012). "Our view: Brown for US Senate". [[Newburyport Daily News]].
  129. (October 27, 2012). "OUR OPINION: Scott Brown for US Senate". [[The Patriot Ledger]].
  130. (October 31, 2012). "Our view: Brown for U.S. Senate". [[The Salem News]].
  131. (October 25, 2012). "ENDORSEMENT: Scott Brown for U.S. Senate". [[Sentinel & Enterprise]].
  132. (October 25, 2012). "Editorial Endorsement: Scott Brown for U.S. Senate". [[The Sun (Lowell).
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