2012 Galician regional election

Background

The election was held amid a climate of falling popularity for the Mariano Rajoy's government, with the electoral campaign being focused on the austerity measures and spending cuts approved by the national PP government. In July 2012, a €65 billion-worth spending cut and a VAT rise from 18% to 21% was introduced, with such measures being heavily criticised because they were a breach of key campaign promises made by the PP in the party's election manifesto. The PP vote share had plummeted in national opinion polls from 40% to 34% as a result, raising fears within Núñez Feijóo's regional government on the possibility of losing their overall majority in the Galician regional election; this had seen an attempt to reform the regional electoral law by decreasing the size of the Parliament of Galicia from 75 to 61, under a seat apportionment that was seen as benefitting the PP's rural strongholds. The reform did not come to pass as a result of the snap poll and a lack of consensus with opposition parties for its approval.

The Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) had split following its 13th national assembly in January 2012 over dissatisfaction with the bloc's political line and the control exercised by the Galician People's Union (UPG). Among the splitting forces were Xosé Manuel Beiras's Encontro Irmandiño (EI), Nationalist Left (EN), Máis Galiza (+G), the Galician Nationalist Party–Galicianist Party (PNG–PG), the Galician Workers' Front (FOGA) and the Galician Socialist Space (ESG), whereas Inzar and the Socialist Collective chose to dissolve. The split parties would rally around a broad umbrella dubbed as the Novo Proxecto Común (), which would provide the basis for the emergence of two new political forces: EI and the FOGA would join other political forces—such as the Galician People's Front (FPG) and Movemento pola Base (MpB)—into the new Renewal–Nationalist Brotherhood (Anova) party, while EN would merge with +G, ESG, PNG–PG, Terra Galega, Espazo Ecosocialista Galego and Acción Galega into the newly established Commitment to Galicia (CxG).

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Galicia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Galicia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Galician Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Galicia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Galicians abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote ().

The 75 members of the Parliament of Galicia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of A Coruña, Lugo, Ourense and Pontevedra, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 10 seats and the remaining 35 being distributed in proportion to their populations.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Galicia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Galicia (DOG), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and the sixtieth day from publication. The previous election was held on 1 March 2009, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 1 March 2013. The election decree was required to be published in the DOG no later than 5 February 2013, with the election taking place up to the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Saturday, 6 April 2013.

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Galicia and call a snap election, provided that it did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

Speculation on the 2013 Galician election being held ahead of schedule emerged after opinion polls at the end of 2011—shortly after the 2011 Spanish general election which saw a landslide victory for the People's Party (PP) across Spain—pointed to an "historic absolute majority" for the party in the region. In February 2012, Galician president Alberto Núñez Feijóo had ruled out a snap election "before the summer", a decision that he reiterated after the Andalusian regional election on 25 March had seen the PP losing over 400,000 votes in comparison to the party's 2011 general election results in the region. The media pointed out that Feijóo could be considering an autumn election instead, in order to prevent further spending cuts from the national PP government under Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy from affecting his image, On 21 August 2012, Lehendakari Patxi López's announcement of a snap Basque election for 21 October left Feijóo little room for an autumn election, and one week later he called a snap election in Galicia to be held concurrently with the Basque poll.

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Galicia was officially dissolved on 28 August 2012, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of Galicia. The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Election debates

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Galicia.

;Color key:

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Galicia.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

;Other

References

1. (26 August 2012). "Feijóo apura el plazo para decidir si convoca las elecciones el 21-O". [[El País]].
2. (27 August 2012). "Feijóo justifica el adelanto electoral para "no crear más inestabilidad"". El País.
3. (5 October 2012). "Rajoy se examina de sus recortes en la campaña electoral del 21-O". El País.
4. (6 September 2012). "PSdeG y BNG hablan ya claramente de alcanzar un pacto de Gobierno". [[El Correo Gallego]].
5. (6 September 2012). "Elecciones gallegas 2012: "Pachi" y Jorquera coinciden en su voluntad de reeditar el bipartito". [[ABC (newspaper).
6. (21 October 2012). "Feijóo arrasa ante un PSOE hundido". El País.
7. (22 October 2012). "AGE se impone en las urbes coruñesas". El País.
8. (22 October 2012). "Feijóo pierde 100.000 votos pero avanza favorecido por la abstención". El País.
9. (11 July 2012). "El ajuste más duro de la democracia". El País.
10. (11 July 2012). "La subida del IVA hasta el 21% busca elevar la recaudación en 7.500 millones". El País.
11. (24 July 2012). "Feijóo fuerza un cambio legal para conservar su mayoría absoluta". El País.
12. (26 July 2012). "Feijóo aprobará en solitario la reducción de escaños que beneficia al PP". El País.
13. (2 August 2012). "La reforma electoral del PP dinamita todos los consensos parlamentarios". El País.
14. (14 May 2012). "El BNG presume de "unión" tras la mayor escisión y pérdida de voto de su historia". ABC.
15. (12 February 2012). "Beiras consuma la primera gran escisión del nacionalismo gallego". El País.
16. (11 February 2012). "La dirección de Esquerda Nacionalista acuerda su escisión del BNG". El Mundo.
17. (12 March 2012). "La portavoz parlamentaria del BNG asegura que las rupturas "terminaron"". El País.
18. (19 March 2012). "El PNG-PG abandona el BNG y analiza su integración en otro proyecto "galleguista"". El Mundo.
19. (7 March 2012). "Bascuas se presentará como candidato a liderar Máis Galiza si cuaja la escisión". El Mundo.
20. (27 February 2012). "Inzar se disuelve como colectivo interno del BNG". El Mundo.
21. (15 March 2012). "El proyecto de refundación del nacionalismo toma forma". El Mundo.
22. (14 July 2012). "La asamblea de Anova-Irmandade Nacionalista reaviva el debate de la independencia". El País.
23. (27 July 2012). "El Bloque saca pecho". La Voz de Galicia.
24. (14 April 2012). "Esquerda Nacionalista "deja sus siglas" para trabajar en el "nuevo proyecto" para las próximas autonómicas". Europa Press.
25. (23 May 2012). "Máis Galiza y otros dos grupos pactan "una nueva fuerza"". El País.
26. (6 April 1981). ["[Galician Statute of Autonomy of 1981".
27. Reig Pellicer, Naiara. (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote".
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29. Gallagher, Michael. (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin.
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31. (21 May 2012). "Feijóo rechazó adelantar las elecciones a finales de 2011 pese a los buenos sondeos". El País.
32. (3 June 2012). "La sombra del desgaste en Euskadi y Galicia empaña la unidad del PP". El País.
33. (1 February 2012). "Feijóo asegura que no está "en su agenda" el adelanto de las autonómicas". El País.
34. (1 February 2012). "Feijóo descarta adelantar las elecciones a antes del verano". El País.
35. (26 March 2012). "Feijóo: "Lo de Andalucía no tiene que ver con los problemas de Galicia"". El País.
36. (24 April 2012). "La fecha de las elecciones". El País.
37. (8 July 2012). "Rojo asegura que Feijóo medita adelantar las elecciones". El País.
38. (29 June 2012). "Génova apunta a elecciones en otoño". Faro de Vigo.
39. (27 August 2012). "Feijóo comunica hoy la fecha electoral tras cerrarla con los barones del partido". El País.
40. (21 August 2012). "Patxi López adelanta las elecciones vascas al 21 de octubre y critica el "torpedeo" de PP y PNV". RTVE.
41. (27 August 2012). "Feijóo adelanta las elecciones gallegas para que coincidan con las vascas". El Mundo.
42. (28 August 2012). "Decreto 174/2012, del 27 de agosto, de disolución del Parlamento de Galicia y de convocatoria de elecciones". [[Diario Oficial de Galicia]].
43. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Galicia (1981 - 2020)".
44. "Parlamento de Galicia. X Lexislatura (21-10-16 ao 10-2-20)".
45. (19 June 1985). "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General".
46. (8 September 2012). "Alberto Nuñez Feijóo, proclamado candidato: "Yo me presento contra la crisis económica"". RTVE.
47. (1 September 2012). "Pachi Vázquez, candidato a la Presidencia de la Xunta por aclamación del PSdeG". RTVE.
48. (29 January 2012). "Jorquera será el candidato a la Xunta del BNG". Europa Press.
49. (7 September 2012). "Esquerda Unida cede a Beiras el número uno por A Coruña". El País.
50. (10 September 2012). "40 días para cambiar la otra izquierda". El País.
51. (11 September 2012). "El pacto de EU y Beiras será Alternativa Galega de Esquerda". El País.
52. (17 September 2012). "Anova y EU se reparten los cabezas de lista de las provincias". El País.
53. (9 October 2012). "El debate entre Feijóo y Pachi Vázquez alcanzó una audiencia del 31,3%". Faro de Vigo.
54. (8 October 2012). "Feijóo y Pachi Vázquez, cara a cara: así será el primer debate televisado en Galicia en 19 años". 20 minutos.
55. (10 October 2012). "El debate Vázquez-Jorquera alcanzó un 19,5 % de audiencia". Faro de Vigo.
56. (9 October 2012). "Turno de debate para Pachi Vázquez y Jorquera, con Feijóo de nuevo en campaña". eldiario.es.
57. (10 October 2012). "Audiencia do 24,9% no debate entre Alberto Núñez Feijoo e Francisco Jorquera na Televisión de Galicia". CRTVG.
58. (7 November 2012). "Parliament of Galicia election results, 21 October 2012". [[Junta Electoral Central.