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2012 Andalusian regional election

Election in the Spanish region of Andalusia


Election in the Spanish region of Andalusia

FieldValue
election_name2012 Andalusian regional election
countryAndalusia
typeparliamentary
ongoingno
previous_election2008 Andalusian regional election
previous_year2008
next_election2015 Andalusian regional election
next_year2015
seats_for_electionAll 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
majority_seats55
opinion_polls#Opinion polls
registered6,392,620 2.6%
turnout3,885,137 (60.8%)
11.9 pp
election_date25 March 2012
image1[[File:Javier Arenas (cropped).jpg170x170px]]
leader1Javier Arenas
party1People's Party of Andalusia
leader_since118 April 2004
leaders_seat1Almería
last_election147 seats, 38.5%
seats150
seat_change13
popular_vote11,570,833
percentage140.7%
swing12.2 pp
image2[[File:José Antonio Griñán 2012 (cropped)-2.jpg170x170px]]
leader2José Antonio Griñán
party2PSOE–A
leader_since223 April 2009
leaders_seat2Seville
last_election256 seats, 48.4%
seats247
seat_change29
popular_vote21,527,923
percentage239.6%
swing28.8 pp
image3[[File:Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg170x170px]]
leader3Diego Valderas
party3United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia
leader_since310 October 2000
leaders_seat3Huelva
last_election36 seats, 7.1%
seats312
seat_change36
popular_vote3438,372
percentage311.3%
swing34.2 pp
map_imageAndalusiaProvinceMapParliament2012.png
map_size375px
map_captionConstituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
titlePresident
before_electionJosé Antonio Griñán
before_partySpanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia
after_electionJosé Antonio Griñán
after_partySpanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia

11.9 pp

A regional election was held in Andalusia on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with a regional election in Asturias.

Being a Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) stronghold for decades, the People's Party (PP) had scored a decisive win in the region in the November 2011 general election and was widely expected to come out on top in the regional election for the first time in its history, with opinion polls suggesting it could win an absolute majority on its own. The election, however, came to be seen as the first major electoral test for the national government of Mariano Rajoy since coming to power in December 2011, with Rajoy's policies of raising taxes and the passing of a new, harsher labour reform having triggered a general strike for 29 March. Incumbent President José Antonio Griñán chose not to hold the election simultaneously with the 2011 general election, the first time since 1994 that both elections were not held at the same time.

Final results showed a surprising close race between the PP and the PSOE–A, the first emerging out on top but falling five seats short of an overall majority. In contrast, the PSOE–A held its own and retained 47 seats despite polls predicting a tougher defeat, allowing Griñán to remain in power through a coalition government with United Left (IULV–CA), which doubled its seat count from 6 to 12 and was placed in a "kingmaker" position.

Background

The 2008 election had seen Manuel Chaves secure a sixth term in office as president of the Regional Government of Andalusia, having governed the autonomous community uninterruptedly during the previous 18 years. However, Chaves's long tenure had already started taking a toll on his popularity in opinion polls, and in April 2009 he vacated the regional presidency in order to become third deputy prime minister in the second government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. José Antonio Griñán, second vice president of the Andalusian government since 2008 and regional minister for Economy and Finance since 2004, succeeded Chaves at the helm of the regional government.

During Griñán's term, his party had to deal with the worsening economic situation resulting from the financial crisis affecting Spain since 2008, with rising unemployment reaching record heights and traditional savings banks being dismantled for being economically unsustainable. The PSOE–A also had to cope with the political fallout resulting from the ERE scandal, a corruption scheme involving the ruling party, as well as the Workers' Commissions (CCOO) and General Union of Workers (UGT) trade unions, which saw irregular payments to politicians, civil servants and companies aligned to the PSOE in exchange for loyalties and favours meant to sustain the party in power. Those payments were charged to an economic fund intended to support companies with problems—more specifically, those that were forced to undergo "Employment Regulation Procedures" (in Spanish, Expedientes de Regulación de Empleo or ERE, terminology that gave the scandal its name)—. The scandal first came under investigation in January 2011, and by the time of the 2012 regional election judicial inquiries reached out to government officers and renown figures.

The opposition People's Party (PP) of Mariano Rajoy won a resounding victory in the 2011 general election in Andalusia, winning in both seats and popular vote for the first time ever in this autonomous community since the Spanish transition to democracy: the PP obtained 1,985,612 votes (45.57%) and 33 seats to Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A)'s 1,594,893 votes (36.60%) and 25 seats, after losing 800,000 votes and 11 seats from those won in the 2008 general election. United Left (IULV–CA) won 2 seats from Seville and Málaga and 8.27% of the share with 360,212 votes. Results projections based on the results of the general election gave the PP an absolute majority with 58 seats—out of 109 up for election—, with the PSOE in a distant second place with 43 seats. IULV–CA would keep its 6 seats on the projections while Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) could enter the Parliament of Andalusia with 2 seats. Had those results been confirmed, it would have meant the end of a 30 year-long hegemony of Socialist rule in the community, the party having been in power since the creation of the Andalusian autonomous community.

The regularly scheduled 2012 election in Andalusia, which was unexpectedly joined by a snap election in Asturias, came to be seen as the first major electoral test for the national government of Mariano Rajoy since coming to power in December 2011. Rajoy's policies of raising taxes and the passing of a new, harsher labour reform had triggered a general strike scheduled for 29 March.

Overview

Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote, nor being legally incapacitated. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Spaniards abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote ().

The Parliament of Andalusia was entitled to a minimum of 109 seats, with the electoral law setting its size at that number. All members were elected in eight multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied in each constituency. The use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

SeatsConstituencies
**18**Seville
**17**Málaga
**15**Cádiz
**13**Granada
**12**Almería, Córdoba
**11**Huelva, Jaén

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the scheduled date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 9 March 2008, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 9 March 2012. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 14 February 2012, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 8 April 2012.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

Several dates were considered for the election. Initially scheduled for either 4 or 18 March, the result of the general election on 20 November 2011 made it advisable for Griñán to push the date further away to the last Sunday of March, in order to push the legislature to the limit and distance himself from the November election result. This marked the first time since 1994 that an Andalusian regional election was not held concurrently with a Spanish general election, as then-Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had announced a general election—initially scheduled for March 2012—four months ahead of schedule, on 20 November 2011, whereas Griñán chose not to follow suit and to maintain the date of the regional election for early 2012.

The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 31 January 2012 with the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOJA, setting election day for 25 March and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 19 April.

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

GroupsPartiesLegislatorsSeatsTotal
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}"Socialist Parliamentary GroupSpanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}"PSOE–A56
People's Party of Andalusia}}"Andalusian People's Parliamentary GroupPeople's Party of Andalusia}}"PP47
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}"United Left/The Greens Parliamentary GroupUnited Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}"IULV–CA6

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliancesLeading candidateIdeologyPrevious resultGov.Ref.Vote %Seats
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}"**PSOE–A**{{Collapsible listtitle = Listbullets = onSpanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)[[File:José Antonio Griñán 2012 (cropped)-2.jpg50px]]José Antonio GriñánSocial democracy
People's Party of Andalusia}}"**PP**{{Collapsible listtitle = Listbullets = onPeople's Party (PP)[[File:Javier Arenas (cropped).jpg50px]]Javier ArenasConservatism
Christian democracy
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}"**IULV–CA**{{Collapsible listtitle = Listbullets = onUnited Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)
– Communist Party of Andalusia (PCA)
– Collective for the Unity of Workers–Andalusian Left Bloc (CUT–BAI)
– Revolutionary Workers' Party (POR)
– Republican Left (IR)
– Open Left (IzAb)[[File:Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg50px]]Diego ValderasSocialism
Communism
Andalusian Party}}"**PA**{{Collapsible listtitle = Listbullets = onAndalusian Party (PA)[[File:Portrait placeholder.svg50px]]Pilar GonzálezAndalusian nationalism
Social democracy
Union, Progress and Democracy}}"**UPyD**{{Collapsible listtitle = Listbullets = onUnion, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)[[File:Portrait placeholder.svg50px]]Martín de la HerránSocial liberalism
Radical centrism

Campaign

Party slogans

Party or allianceOriginal sloganEnglish translationRef.
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}"PSOE–A« Andalucía, por el camino seguro »"Andalusia, through the safe way"
People's Party of Andalusia}}"PP« El cambio andaluz »"The Andalusian change"
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}"IULV–CA« Rebélate! »"Rebel!"
Andalusian Party}}"PA« PAlante »"Forward"
Union, Progress and Democracy}}"UPyD« Lo que nos une »"What unites us"

Election debates

DateOrganisersModerator(s)Present Surrogate
Not invited Invited Absent inviteePSOE–APPIULV–CAAudienceRef.Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};"People's Party of Andalusia}};"United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};"
12 MarchCanal SurMabel Mata10.1%
(358,000)

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

;Color key:

Polling firm/CommissionerFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout[[File:Logo PSOE-A.svg25pxlink=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of AndalusiaPSOE–A]][[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2008-2015).svg28pxlink=People's Party of AndalusiaPP]]IULV[[File:PA logo.svg25pxlink=Andalusian PartyPA]][[File:Logo de UPyD.png27pxlink=Union, Progress and DemocracyUPyD]]LeadSpanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};"People's Party of Andalusia}};"United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};"Andalusian Party}};"Union, Progress and Democracy}};"
**2012 regional election**25 Mar 201260.839.6
**40.7**
11.3
2.5
3.4
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"1.1
title=El PP roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía, según el sondeo de Ipsosurl=http://www.canalsur.es/el_pp_roza_la_mayoria_absoluta_en_andalucia_segun_el_sondeo_de_ipsos/197913.htmllanguage=eswork=Canal Surdate=25 March 2012}}25 Mar 2012?60.439.2
**42.0**
9.9
2.7
3.0
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"2.8
title=El PP ganará el domingo por mayoría absoluta pese al leve repunte de Griñánurl=http://www.libertaddigital.com/nacional/2012-03-19/el-pp-ganara-el-domingo-por-mayoria-absoluta-pese-al-leve-repunte-de-grinan-1276453417/language=eswork=Libertad Digitaldate=19 March 2012}}19 Mar 2012??38.1
**46.7**
8.1
2.1
2.7
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.6
title=El PP de Arenas se mueve en el entorno de la mayoría absolutaurl=http://diariodigital.ujaen.es/files_viccom/1903201204.pdflanguage=eswork=Diario Jaéndate=19 March 2012access-date=6 March 2015archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150402092358/http://diariodigital.ujaen.es/files_viccom/1903201204.pdfarchive-date=2 April 2015url-status=dead }}12–16 Mar 20121,500?36.8
**42.9**
10.8
2.7
3.6
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"6.1
title=El PP sigue sin amarrar la mayoría absoluta a una semana de los comiciosurl=http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CFAfKrA3Ui0/T2Vyk-NrR_I/AAAAAAAABMw/Q2s36eNYUvo/s1600/3+ENCUESTA+EL+MUNDO+SIGMA+DOS+Elecciones+Andalucia+Resultado+estimado+por+provincias.jpglanguage=eswork=El Mundodate=18 March 2012}}12–15 Mar 20122,000?36.0
**45.8**
8.9
2.9
3.8
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.8
last1=Barberofirst1=Luistitle=Victoria clara del PP en Andalucíaurl=https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2012/03/17/actualidad/1332013184_144743.htmllanguage=eswork=El Paísdate=17 March 2012}}6–15 Mar 20121,200?34.4
**47.3**
8.8
2.7
3.2
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"12.9
title=Arenas arrebata al PSOE 245.000 votantes para su mayoría absolutaurl=http://www.larazon.es/noticia/8897-arenas-arrebata-al-psoe-245-000-votantes-para-su-mayoria-absolutalanguage=eswork=La Razóndate=19 March 2012archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120321205901/http://www.larazon.es/noticia/8897-arenas-arrebata-al-psoe-245-000-votantes-para-su-mayoria-absolutaarchive-date=21 March 2012 }}1–15 Mar 20122,70067.636.1
**46.0**
9.3
?
4.2
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.9
title=El PP alcanza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucíaurl=http://cadenaser.com/ser/2012/03/16/espana/1331859013_850215.htmllanguage=eswork=Cadena SERdate=16 March 2012}}12–13 Mar 2012800?36.0**46.7**8.84.12.8People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"10.7
title=Arenas afianza su mayoría absolutaurl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2012/03/18/020.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=18 March 2012}}7–12 Mar 20121,000?35.6
**47.0**
8.7
1.8
4.6
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"11.4
title=Arenas ganará en Andalucía por mayoría absolutaurl=http://www.intereconomia.com/noticias-gaceta/politica/arenas-ganara-andalucia-por-mayoria-absoluta-20120317language=eswork=Intereconomíadate=18 March 2012archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120319035004/http://www.intereconomia.com/noticias-gaceta/politica/arenas-ganara-andalucia-por-mayoria-absoluta-20120317archive-date=19 March 2012 }}5–12 Mar 20121,500?37.2
**45.2**
8.5
?
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.0
title=PP-A ganaría por mayoría absoluta con 56-58 escaños y 9,4 puntos sobre el PSOE-A, según una encuesta de GAD3url=http://www.europapress.es/andalucia/elecciones-00761/noticia-pp-ganaria-mayoria-absoluta-56-58-escanos-94-puntos-psoe-encuesta-gad3-20120309152722.htmllanguage=eswork=Europa Pressdate=9 March 2012}}5–8 Mar 20127506336.8
**46.2**
9.2
2.4
2.9
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.4
title=El PSOE pierde 662.000 votantesurl=http://www.larazon.es/noticia/7851-el-psoe-pierde-662-000-votanteslanguage=eswork=La Razóndate=12 March 2012archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120314165743/http://www.larazon.es/noticia/7851-el-psoe-pierde-662-000-votantesarchive-date=14 March 2012 }}20 Feb–6 Mar 20122,70067.735.7
**45.7**
9.9
?
4.3
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"10.0
title=El PP de Javier Arenas se sitúa en el umbral de la mayoría absolutaurl=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andaluzas2012/PP-Javier-Arenas-mayoria-absoluta_0_568743177.htmllanguage=eswork=Diario de Sevilladate=11 March 2012}}13–29 Feb 20121,001?36.9
**45.2**
8.5
2.3
3.7
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.3
title=Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2012. Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía (Estudio nº 2931. Febrero 2012)url=https://www.cis.es/documents/d/cis/es2931mar_alanguage=eswork=CISdate=8 March 2012}}15–27 Feb 20123,139?37.7
**44.9**
9.8
2.6
2.6
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.2
title=El PP tiene en su mano la mayoría absoluta a un mes de los comiciosurl=http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Kyhu2OUW1VY/T0xlVkEEgfI/AAAAAAAAA0o/nmITEX2aajs/s1600/2+SONDEO+EL+MUNDO+-+SIGMA+DOS+Elecciones+en+Andalucia+El+PP+aventaja+en+8,7++puntos+al+PSOE+pero+podria+depender+de+UPyD+para+gobernar.jpglanguage=eswork=El Mundodate=28 February 2012}}22–24 Feb 20122,000?36.3
**45.0**
9.3
2.4
4.2
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.7
title=Encuesta preelectoral Andalucía. Febrero 2012url=http://s.libertaddigital.com/doc/encuenta-gespa-para-el-pp-41912517.pdflanguage=eswork=GESPAdate=27 February 2012archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140814213833/http://s.libertaddigital.com/doc/encuenta-gespa-para-el-pp-41912517.pdfarchive-date=14 August 2014 }}6–22 Feb 20122,000?37.2
**46.7**
7.6
2.2
3.9
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.5
title=El PP consolida la mayoría absolutaurl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2012/02/28/020.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=28 February 2012}}8–16 Feb 20121,500?36.2
**46.3**
8.2
2.2
4.3
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"10.1
title=Un sondeo rebaja las opciones de Arenas de lograr la mayoría absolutaurl=http://www.cepes-andalucia.es/fileadmin/media/noticias/Resenas_12_Mar/res_44036234.pdflanguage=eswork=El Correo de Andalucíadate=28 February 2012archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140728030917/http://www.cepes-andalucia.es/fileadmin/media/noticias/Resenas_12_Mar/res_44036234.pdfarchive-date=28 July 2014 }}1–14 Feb 20121,60071.537.6
**45.1**
7.5
2.8
3.3
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.5
title=El PP conquista Sevilla ante el descalabro de Griñánurl=http://www.larazon.es/noticia/5182-el-pp-conquista-sevilla-ante-el-descalabro-de-grinanlanguage=eswork=La Razóndate=14 February 2012archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120215135609/http://www.larazon.es/noticia/5182-el-pp-conquista-sevilla-ante-el-descalabro-de-grinanarchive-date=15 February 2012 }}1–13 Feb 2012?67.634.2
**47.4**
?
?
?
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"13.2
title=Arenas tumba a Griñánurl=http://www.larazon.es/noticia/2428-arenas-tumba-a-grinanlanguage=eswork=La Razóndate=30 January 2012archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120201180205/http://www.larazon.es/noticia/2428-arenas-tumba-a-grinanarchive-date=1 February 2012 }}30 Jan 2012?67.335.6
**46.9**
8.9
2.9
3.8
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"11.3
title=El hundimiento del PSOE consolida la mayoría absoluta del PP en Andalucíaurl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/2012/02/03/018.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=3 February 2012}}16–24 Jan 20121,500?35.2**47.1**8.52.14.7People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"11.9
title=La mayoría absoluta de Arenas pende de dos escañosurl=http://www.libertaddigital.com/nacional/2012-01-22/la-mayoria-absoluta-del-pp-en-andalucia-pende-de-dos-escanos-en-disputa-1276447691/language=eswork=Libertad Digitaldate=22 January 2012}}22 Jan 20122,400?36.6
**43.7**
9.1
4.6
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.1
title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2011url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_51/CUADERNO%20EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%202011.pdflanguage=eswork=CADPEAdate=12 January 2012archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120621025822/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_51/CUADERNO%20EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%202011.pdfarchive-date=21 June 2012 }}1–30 Dec 20113,20063.437.6
**47.0**
6.3
2.0
3.0
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.4
**2011 general election**20 Nov 201168.936.6
**45.6**
8.3
1.8
4.8
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.0
title=Barómetro Joly de Opinión Pública en Andalucía: resultados acumulados a octubre de 2011 (9ª ola)url=http://media.grupojoly.com//0000958500/0000958532.pdflanguage=eswork=Commentiadate=6 November 2011archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111109220731/http://media.grupojoly.com//0000958500/0000958532.pdfarchive-date=9 November 2011 }}18–24 Oct 2011501?34.8**49.4**8.42.0People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"14.6
title=Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. Noviembre, 2011url=http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/200520130.pdflanguage=eswork=IESAdate=30 November 2011access-date=5 January 2018archive-date=6 January 2018archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180106071927/http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/200520130.pdfurl-status=dead }}26 Sep–21 Oct 20113,68269.836.0**46.4**8.12.83.2People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"10.4
title=Maquillan un sondeo oficial para que Griñán supere a Arenas en valoraciónurl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2011/07/29/034.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=29 July 2011}}29 Jul 2011?68.233.2**50.2**8.32.31.5People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"17.0
title=Otra encuesta, la primera tras el 22M, da al PP mayoría absolutaurl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2011/07/24/046.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=24 July 2011}}14–19 Jul 2011800?34.2**50.4**7.72.8People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"16.2
title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2011url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_50/EGOPA%20VERANO%202011.pdflanguage=eswork=CADPEAdate=29 July 2011archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110924195126/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_50/EGOPA%20VERANO%202011.pdfarchive-date=24 September 2011 }}6 Jun–11 Jul 20113,60069.934.3**48.9**8.32.41.4People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"14.6
title=Una encuesta interna del PSOE da al PP 7 puntos de ventaja en Andalucíaurl=http://elcorreoweb.es/historico/una-encuesta-interna-del-psoe-da-al-pp-7-puntos-de-ventaja-en-andalucia-LGEC338157language=eswork=El Correo de Andalucíadate=28 July 2011}}4–10 Jul 20111,514?39.0**46.0**6.82.53.0People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.0
**2011 local elections**22 May 201165.832.5**39.4**12.05.71.8People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"6.9
title=El PP amarra la mayoría pero frena su ascensourl=http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Kpdd_uIkeaw/TbZa099SRTI/AAAAAAAAA0c/bb9kH4YrUjI/s1600/4d+SONDEO+EL+MUNDO-SIGMA+DOS+%2528III%2529++Andalucia+El+PP+amarra+la+mayoria.jpglanguage=eswork=El Mundodate=26 April 2011}}12–15 Apr 20111,200?36.8
**48.0**
7.8
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"11.2
title=El PP ganaría por mayoría absoluta en Andalucía tras 30 años de autonomíaurl=https://elpais.com/diario/2011/02/28/espana/1298847607_850215.htmllanguage=eswork=El Paísdate=28 February 2011}}21–22 Feb 2011804?35.2
**47.5**
8.4
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"12.3
title=El PP saca siete puntos al PSOE y consolida sus opciones de gobernarurl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2011/02/28/038.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=28 February 2011}}10–20 Feb 20111,600?38.2
**45.3**
7.6
2.3
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.1
title=El PP dobla la ventaja sobre el PSOE en un año y se sitúa en la mayoría absolutaurl=http://www.lavozdigital.es/cadiz/20110227/local/andalucia/dobla-ventaja-sobre-psoe-201102271150.htmllanguage=eswork=La Voz de Cádizdate=27 February 2011}}15–18 Feb 2011800?38.2**47.6**7.71.31.8People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.4
title=El PP acrecienta la diferencia con el PSOE y lo deja a 10,2 puntosurl=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PP-acrecienta-diferencia-PSOE-puntos_0_455354893.htmllanguage=eswork=Diario de Sevilladate=27 February 2011}}9–16 Feb 2011500?36.9**47.1**8.52.9People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"10.2
title=El PP obtendría la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía (Gespa)url=http://www.electometro.es:80/2011/02/el-pp-obtendria-la-mayoria-absoluta-en-andalucia-gespa/language=eswork=Electómetrodate=21 February 2011archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110225210338/http://www.electometro.es/2011/02/el-pp-obtendria-la-mayoria-absoluta-en-andalucia-gespa/archive-date=25 February 2011access-date=8 August 2021url-status=live }}1–4 Feb 20111,111?37.0
**46.1**
7.8
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.1
title=Instantáneas de la Sociedad Andaluza. Febrero, 2011url=http://www.cepes-andalucia.es/fileadmin/media/noticias/Tripticos/20110221_Resumen_Informe_Instantaneas_de_la_Sociedad_Andaluza.pdflanguage=eswork=CEPES–Adate=21 February 2011archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110303151158/http://www.cepes-andalucia.es/fileadmin/media/noticias/Tripticos/20110221_Resumen_Informe_Instantaneas_de_la_Sociedad_Andaluza.pdfarchive-date=3 March 2011 }}18 Jan–2 Feb 20111,20073.039.7**46.2**7.63.2People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"6.5
title=El PP conquista los grandes feudos de los socialistasurl=http://www.larazon.es:80/noticia/1719-el-pp-conquista-los-grandes-feudos-de-los-socialistaslanguage=eswork=La Razóndate=22 January 2011archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110305113906/http://www.larazon.es/noticia/1719-el-pp-conquista-los-grandes-feudos-de-los-socialistasarchive-date=5 March 2011access-date=6 May 2013url-status=dead }}30 Dec–3 Jan 2011??39.1
**46.2**
?
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.1
title=El PP de Arenas obtiene una mayoría absoluta más sólida que la del PSOEurl=http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_0X0fuad8-LY/TSgtJE6hG0I/AAAAAAAAAMg/Ox9wySP_fWQ/s1600/4+Super+ENCUESTA+SIGMA+DOS-+EL+MUNDO+ANDALUCIA.jpglanguage=eswork=El Mundodate=8 January 2011}}20–23 Dec 20101,200?36.4
**49.3**
7.2
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"12.9
title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2010url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_49/CUADERNO%20EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%2010.pdflanguage=eswork=CADPEAdate=24 January 2011archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110720162222/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_49/CUADERNO%20EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%2010.pdfarchive-date=20 July 2011 }}24 Nov–22 Dec 20103,20075.236.2**45.4**8.22.31.4People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.2
title=Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. Diciembre, 2010url=http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/301120111.pdflanguage=eswork=IESAdate=20 December 2010access-date=6 May 2013archive-date=27 June 2012archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120627093301/http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/301120111.pdfurl-status=dead }}18 Oct–18 Nov 20103,65571.037.7
**46.8**
8.2
2.9
1.7
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.1
title=El giro político de Zapatero apenas recorta la ventaja del PP andaluzurl=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/politico-Zapatero-ventaja-PP-andaluz_0_421758330.htmllanguage=eswork=Diario de Sevilladate=7 November 2010}}21–27 Oct 2010502?39.1**46.2**7.02.72.1People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.1
title=Un nuevo sondeo da al PP-A la mayoría absoluta por cuarta vez consecutivaurl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2010/10/04/041.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=4 October 2010}}20–26 Sep 20101,111?38.2
**45.5**
7.6
2.5
1.7
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.3
title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2010url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_42/Cuaderno%20EGOPA%20Verano%202010.pdflanguage=eswork=CADPEAdate=28 July 2010archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100928031441/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_42/Cuaderno%20EGOPA%20Verano%202010.pdfarchive-date=28 September 2010 }}7 Jun–6 Jul 20103,20072.138.0**45.1**8.12.11.5People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.1
title=El PP rompe el empate con creces y adelanta al PSOE en siete puntosurl=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PP-creces-adelanta-PSOE-puntos_0_381861912.htmllanguage=eswork=Diario de Sevilladate=27 June 2010}}10–15 Jun 2010806?38.1**45.4**8.52.51.5People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.3
title=El PP llega a las puertas de la Junta al lograr por primera vez mayoría absolutaurl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2010/06/21/036.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=21 June 2010}}8–12 Jun 2010817?38.7
**44.3**
7.6
2.3
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"5.6
title=El PP avanza y gana en Andalucíaurl=https://elpais.com/diario/2010/02/28/espana/1267311604_850215.htmllanguage=eswork=El Paísdate=28 February 2010}}15–18 Feb 2010804?41.0
**43.3**
7.2
2.9
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"2.3
title=El PP no pasa del empate técnico en Andalucíaurl=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PP-pasa-empate-tecnico-Andalucia_0_345865637.htmllanguage=eswork=Diario de Sevilladate=27 February 2010}}9–15 Feb 2010801?**42.9**42.57.52.52.0Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"0.4
title=El PP supera al PSOE en 3,9 puntos y lograría una amplia mayoríaurl=http://www.lavozdigital.es/cadiz/20100228/local/andalucia/supera-psoe-puntos-lograria-201002280946.htmllanguage=eswork=La Voz de Cádizdate=28 February 2010}}8–15 Feb 2010800?41.8**45.7**6.21.41.6People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"3.9
title=El PP gana al PSOE por 2,1 puntos y se queda a tres escaños de la mayoría absolutaurl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2010/02/21/044.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=21 February 2010}}25 Jan–12 Feb 20101,600?40.8
**42.9**
7.2
2.1
People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"2.1
title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno 2009-2010url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_40/CUADERNILLO%20EGOPA%20INVIERNO%202009-2010.pdflanguage=eswork=CADPEAdate=18 February 2010archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100928034329/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_40/CUADERNILLO%20EGOPA%20INVIERNO%202009-2010.pdfarchive-date=28 September 2010 }}7–29 Jan 20103,20076.7**43.2**41.97.12.81.4Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"1.3
title=Una maratón con 'foto finish'url=http://elcorreoweb.es/historico/una-maraton-con-foto-finish-GFEC218358language=eswork=El Correo de Andalucíadate=20 February 2010}}11–28 Jan 20101,800?**41.8**41.16.42.42.6Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"0.7
title=Instantáneas de la Sociedad Andaluza. Febrero del 2010url=http://media.grupojoly.com//0000501000/0000501083.pdflanguage=eswork=CEPES–Adate=16 February 2010archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140808175207/http://media.grupojoly.com//0000501000/0000501083.pdfarchive-date=8 August 2014 }}20–28 Jan 20101,20771.041.3**41.9**6.93.9People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"0.6
title=Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. 2009url=http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/141220123.pdflanguage=eswork=IESAdate=15 January 2010access-date=5 January 2018archive-date=6 January 2018archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180106073520/http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/141220123.pdfurl-status=dead }}1–30 Nov 20093,64570.541.6**43.2**7.12.41.8People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"1.6
title=El desgaste de Zapatero y la respuesta a la crisis contagian al PSOE andaluzurl=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/desgaste-Zapatero-respuesta-contagian-PSOE_0_306269817.htmllanguage=eswork=Diario de Sevilladate=18 October 2009}}23 Sep–2 Oct 20091,00275**42.7**42.27.12.42.6Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"0.5
title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2009url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_39/CUADERNILLO%20EGOPA%20VERANO%202009.pdflanguage=eswork=CADPEAdate=31 July 2009archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100928031643/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_39/CUADERNILLO%20EGOPA%20VERANO%202009.pdfarchive-date=28 September 2010 }}9 Jun–9 Jul 20093,20074.9**46.2**39.76.72.61.1Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"6.5
title=El PSOE le sigue sacando 6,5 puntos al PP a pesar de la marcha de su líderurl=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PSOE-sacando-puntos-PP-marcha_0_272672959.htmllanguage=eswork=Diario de Sevilladate=28 June 2009}}28 Jun 20091,00375**45.6**39.17.52.72.4Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"6.5
title=Un sondeo del PP le sitúa a 1,3 puntos del PSOE en intención de votourl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2009/07/04/040.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=4 July 2009}}16–24 Jun 20092,500?**44.1**42.86.51.52.1Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"1.3
title=Un sondeo da mayoría absoluta al PSOE andaluzurl=https://elpais.com/diario/2009/06/22/andalucia/1245622933_850215.htmllanguage=eswork=El Paísdate=22 June 2009}}25 May–19 Jun 20091,400?**48.6**40.26.21.8Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.4
**2009 EP election**7 Jun 200941.7**48.2**
39.7
5.2
1.0
2.5
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.5
title=Ligero desgaste del PSOE y mejora del PPurl=http://www.lavozdigital.es/cadiz/20090228/ciudadanos/ligero-desgaste-psoe-mejora-20090228.htmllanguage=eswork=La Voz de Cádizdate=28 February 2009}}19–23 Feb 2009800?**46.8**40.57.21.9Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"6.3
title=El PP se sitúa a un punto del PSOE en Andalucíaurl=https://elpais.com/elpais/2009/02/28/actualidad/1235812617_850215.htmllanguage=eswork=El Paísdate=28 February 2009}}10–12 Feb 200980073.3**44.3**
43.2
6.6
2.9
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"1.1
title=El PSOE le sigue sacando siete puntos al PP a pesar de la crisisurl=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/sevilla/PSOE-sacando-puntos-PP-crisis_0_236676693.htmllanguage=eswork=Diario de Sevilladate=28 February 2009}}29 Jan–11 Feb 20091,000?**46.2**39.17.52.81.2Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.1
title=El PSOE pierde su mayoría absoluta por la subida del PP, que se sitúa a sólo tres puntosurl=http://hemeroteca.sevilla.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2009/02/28/040.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=28 February 2009}}5–9 Feb 20091,600?**45.8**
42.6
6.9
1.9
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"3.2
title=El PSOE baja tres puntos en intención de voto mientras el PP sigue subiendourl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2009/02/24/041.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=24 February 2009}}20–30 Jan 20091,20270.5**45.8**39.67.93.1Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"6.2
last1=Pedrotefirst1=Isabeltitle=Un sondeo del PP apunta el empateurl=https://elpais.com/diario/2009/01/10/andalucia/1231543331_850215.htmllanguage=eswork=El Paísdate=10 January 2009}}9–19 Dec 20082,000?**44.7**
43.1
7.6
1.5
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"1.6
title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2008url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_32/EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%202008.pdflanguage=eswork=CADPEAdate=22 January 2009archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140809184948/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_32/EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%202008.pdfarchive-date=9 August 2014 }}14 Nov–12 Dec 20083,20074.7**46.2**38.87.52.2Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.4
title=Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. Diciembre, 2008url=http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/031220130.pdflanguage=eswork=IESAdate=10 January 2009access-date=5 January 2018archive-date=6 January 2018archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180106072613/http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/031220130.pdfurl-status=dead }}10 Nov–5 Dec 20083,65871.8**47.0**40.86.22.5Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"6.2
title=El PSOE apenas sufre el efecto de la crisisurl=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PSOE-apenas-sufre-efecto-crisis_0_197080913.htmllanguage=eswork=Diario de Sevilladate=19 October 2008}}20 Sep–2 Oct 20081,007?**46.5**39.67.32.21.2Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"6.9
title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2008url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_31/cuadernillo%20EGOPA%20VERANO%202008.pdflanguage=eswork=CADPEAdate=31 July 2008archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100928031824/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_31/cuadernillo%20EGOPA%20VERANO%202008.pdfarchive-date=28 September 2010 }}2 Jun–4 Jul 20083,20074.0**46.7**38.17.92.0Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.6
**[2008 regional election](2008-andalusian-regional-election)**9 Mar 200872.7**48.4**
38.5
7.1
2.8
0.6
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.9

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/CommissionerFieldwork dateSample size[[File:Logo PSOE-A.svg25pxlink=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of AndalusiaPSOE–A]][[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2008-2015).svg28pxlink=People's Party of AndalusiaPP]]IULV[[File:PA logo.svg25pxlink=Andalusian PartyPA]][[File:Logo de UPyD.png27pxlink=Union, Progress and DemocracyUPyD]]LeadSpanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};"People's Party of Andalusia}};"United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};"Andalusian Party}};"Union, Progress and Democracy}};"
**2012 regional election**25 Mar 201224.5**25.2**7.01.62.137.8People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"0.7
CIS15–27 Feb 20123,139**29.6**25.37.91.61.719.99.6Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"4.3
CADPEA/UGR1–30 Dec 20113,20021.4**31.3**6.61.62.022.68.8People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.9
**2011 general election**20 Nov 201125.6**31.9**5.81.23.329.3People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"6.3
Commentia/Grupo Joly18–24 Oct 201150121.9**34.0**People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"12.1
IESA/CSIC26 Sep–21 Oct 20113,68223.4**32.4**5.81.92.223.36.1People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.0
CADPEA/UGR6 Jun–11 Jul 20113,60018.5**32.0**5.91.81.627.88.3People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"13.5
IMC/ABC10–20 Feb 20111,60028.9**32.5**4.61.825.9People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"3.6
Commentia/Grupo Joly9–16 Feb 201150021.3**29.8**People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.5
CADPEA/UGR24 Nov–22 Dec 20103,20020.8**27.0**5.01.51.324.212.6People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"6.2
IESA/CSIC18 Oct–18 Nov 20103,65522.5**30.8**5.42.01.327.86.8People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.3
Commentia/Grupo Joly21–27 Oct 201050223.4**30.4**People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.0
CADPEA/UGR7 Jun–6 Jul 20103,20022.5**25.4**5.71.61.421.713.6People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"2.9
Commentia/Grupo Joly10–15 Jun 201080623.0**31.1**People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.1
title=El PP no pasa del empate técnico en Andalucíaurl=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PP-pasa-empate-tecnico-Andalucia_0_345865637.htmllanguage=eswork=Diario de Sevilladate=27 February 2010}}9–15 Feb 2010801**27.8**27.5Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"0.3
IMC/ABC25 Jan–12 Feb 20101,60031.7**32.4**3.51.925.4People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"0.7
CADPEA/UGR7–29 Jan 20103,200**24.7**24.05.12.21.921.614.0Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"0.7
Nexo/CEPES–A20–28 Jan 20101,20722.2**26.3**4.22.81.823.410.0People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"4.1
IESA/CSIC1–30 Nov 20093,645**28.7****28.7**5.32.20.621.88.1Tie
Commentia/Grupo Joly23 Sep–2 Oct 20091,00226.3**28.1**People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"1.8
CADPEA/UGR9 Jun–9 Jul 20093,200**26.9**22.65.11.32.424.113.1Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"4.3
Commentia/Grupo Joly28 Jun 20091,003**29.9**26.5Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"3.4
**2009 EP election**7 Jun 2009**20.3**16.82.20.41.157.6Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"3.5
Commentia/Grupo Joly29 Jan–11 Feb 20091,000**29.9**25.4Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"4.5
CADPEA/UGR14 Nov–12 Dec 20083,200**31.9**21.04.51.41.023.511.6Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"10.9
IESA/CSIC10 Nov–5 Dec 20083,658**32.0**27.04.82.222.86.9Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"5.0
Commentia/Grupo Joly20 Sep–2 Oct 20081,007**27.7**24.9Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"2.8
CADPEA/UGR2 Jun–4 Jul 20083,200**28.2**23.65.62.40.921.311.1Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"4.6
**[2008 regional election](2008-andalusian-regional-election)**9 Mar 2008**35.3**28.35.22.00.426.4Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.0

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/CommissionerFieldwork dateSample size[[File:Logo PSOE-A.svg25pxlink=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of AndalusiaPSOE–A]][[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2008-2015).svg28pxlink=People's Party of AndalusiaPP]]IULV[[File:PA logo.svg25pxlink=Andalusian PartyPA]][[File:Logo de UPyD.png27pxlink=Union, Progress and DemocracyUPyD]]Other/
NoneLeadSpanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};"People's Party of Andalusia}};"United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};"Andalusian Party}};"Union, Progress and Democracy}};"
Opinión 2000/Cadena SER12–13 Mar 201280030.9**38.4**6.52.02.87.512.1People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.5
CIS15–27 Feb 20123,139**33.6**28.39.12.12.12.022.8Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"5.3
IESA/CSIC26 Sep–21 Oct 20113,68226.8**35.0**6.92.72.02.723.8People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.2
Metroscopia/El País21–22 Feb 201180436.0**49.0**15.0People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"13.0
IESA/CSIC18 Oct–18 Nov 20103,65525.8**35.0**6.12.81.61.427.4People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.2
GESPA/PP20–26 Sep 20101,11127.6**33.4**6.85.31.12.326.9People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"5.8
CADPEA/UGR7 Jun–6 Jul 20103,200**28.8**28.38.13.51.82.327.3Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"0.5
Metroscopia/El País15–18 Feb 201080437.0**42.0**21.0People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"5.0
IESA/CSIC1–30 Nov 20093,64531.0**31.2**6.33.21.92.024.5People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"0.2
Metroscopia/El País10–12 Feb 2009800**43.0**42.015.0Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"1.0
IESA/CSIC10 Nov–5 Dec 20083,658**35.0**29.76.23.026.1Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"5.3

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/CommissionerFieldwork dateSample size[[File:Logo PSOE-A.svg25pxlink=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of AndalusiaPSOE–A]][[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2008-2015).svg28pxlink=People's Party of AndalusiaPP]]IULV[[File:PA logo.svg25pxlink=Andalusian PartyPA]][[File:Logo de UPyD.png27pxlink=Union, Progress and DemocracyUPyD]]Other/
NoneLeadSpanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};"People's Party of Andalusia}};"United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};"Andalusian Party}};"Union, Progress and Democracy}};"
GAD319 Mar 2012?22.0**63.0**15.0People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"41.0
Opinión 2000/Cadena SER12–13 Mar 201280012.9**65.4**0.90.30.30.120.3People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"52.5
IMC/ABC7–12 Mar 20121,00020.0**62.9**0.616.5People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"42.9
title=Susana Díaz adelanta al PP en un clima de deterioro del bipartidismourl=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/Susana-Diaz-PP-deterioro-bipartidismo_0_784422071.htmllanguage=eswork=Diario de Sevilladate=28 February 2014access-date=26 January 2017archive-date=2 February 2017archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170202060724/http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/Susana-Diaz-PP-deterioro-bipartidismo_0_784422071.htmlurl-status=live }}13–29 Feb 20121,00118.5**57.7**23.8People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"39.2
CIS15–27 Feb 20123,13918.9**57.0**0.90.20.00.222.8People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"38.1
GESPA/PP6–22 Feb 20122,00019.7**61.8**0.418.2People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"42.1
IMC/ABC16–24 Jan 20121,50019.4**64.6**16.0People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"45.2
Commentia/Grupo Joly18–24 Oct 201150119.8**58.5**0.20.00.021.6People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"38.7
IESA/CSIC26 Sep–21 Oct 20113,68216.9**61.7**0.30.50.10.320.1People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"44.8
title=Probabilidad de que gane el PP las próximas elecciones andaluzasurl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2011/02/28/039.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=28 February 2011}}10–20 Feb 20111,60037.9**47.2**14.9People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.3
Commentia/Grupo Joly9–16 Feb 201150036.8**40.0**0.40.00.222.6People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"3.2
IESA/CSIC18 Oct–18 Nov 20103,655**35.5**34.50.70.40.30.428.3Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"1.0
Commentia/Grupo Joly21–27 Oct 2010502**49.4**31.30.20.20.018.9Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"18.1
CADPEA/UGR7 Jun–6 Jul 20103,200**54.9**26.90.50.10.10.317.2Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"28.0
Commentia/Grupo Joly10–15 Jun 2010806**43.6**35.70.20.50.219.8Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"7.9
title=Para salir de la crisisurl=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2010/06/21/037.htmllanguage=eswork=ABCdate=21 June 2010}}8–12 Jun 201081740.0**41.6**18.4People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"1.6
Commentia/Grupo Joly9–15 Feb 2010801**46.3**32.60.10.10.120.7Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"13.7
IMC/ABC25 Jan–12 Feb 20101,600**52.6**32.015.4Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"20.6
IESA/CSIC1–30 Nov 20093,645**52.1**20.50.60.50.10.425.9Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"31.6
IMC/ABC5–9 Feb 20091,600**72.9**9.80.616.7Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"63.1
IESA/CSIC10 Nov–5 Dec 20083,658**62.8**12.80.80.323.3Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"50.0

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

Polling firm/CommissionerFieldwork dateSample size[[File:José Antonio Griñán 2012 (cropped)-2.jpg50px]][[File:Javier Arenas (cropped).jpg50px]][[File:Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg50px]][[File:Portrait placeholder.svg50px]][[File:Portrait placeholder.svg50px]]Other/
None/
Not
careLeadSpanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};"People's Party of Andalusia}};"United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};"Andalusian Party}};"Union, Progress and Democracy}};"Griñán
PSOE–AArenas
PPValderas
IULVGonzález
PAHerrán
UPyD
Metroscopia/El País6–15 Mar 20121,20034.0**42.0**24.0People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.0
Opinión 2000/Cadena SER12–13 Mar 201280030.6**39.3**6.312.911.0People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"8.7
CIS15–27 Feb 20123,139**30.7**29.48.67.024.3Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"1.7
GESPA/PP6–22 Feb 20122,00027.4**36.4**5.73.22.68.216.7People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"9.0
IMOP/PSOE4–10 Jul 20111,514**47.1**25.027.9Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"22.1

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Polling firm/CommissionerFieldwork dateSample size[[File:José Antonio Griñán 2012 (cropped)-2.jpg50px]][[File:Javier Arenas (cropped).jpg50px]][[File:Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg50px]]Other/
None/
Not
careLeadSpanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};"People's Party of Andalusia}};"United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};"Griñán
PSOE–AArenas
PPValderas
IULV
Opinión 2000/Cadena SER12–13 Mar 201280020.1**60.3**1.40.917.4People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"40.2

Voter turnout

The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day, without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).

ProvinceTime14:0018:0020:0020082012+/–20082012+/–20082012+/–
Almería40.32%**29.23%**−11.0960.52%**45.97%**−14.5574.66%**60.51%**−14.15
Cádiz37.19%**25.76%**−11.4355.85%**41.86%**−13.9968.12%**54.29%**−13.83
Córdoba39.91%**31.85%**−8.0660.88%**50.23%**−10.6576.62%**66.50%**−10.12
Granada39.98%**30.86%**−9.1261.01%**49.43%**−11.5875.89%**65.43%**−10.46
Huelva36.24%**27.02%**−9.2255.62%**44.13%**−11.4970.40%**60.84%**−9.56
Jaén38.97%**32.90%**−6.0761.25%**52.36%**−8.8979.26%**70.74%**−8.52
Málaga39.93%**28.09%**−11.8459.49%**44.67%**−14.8272.31%**58.05%**−14.26
Seville36.26%**29.97%**−6.2960.72%**49.54%**−11.1874.38%**64.93%**−9.45
**Total****39.07%****29.30%****–9.77****59.51%****47.21%****–12.30****73.65%****62.23%****–11.42**
Sources

Results

Overall

Parties and alliancesPopular voteSeatsVotes%±ppTotal+/−
People's Party of Andalusia}}"People's Party (PP)1,570,83340.67+2.22**50**+3
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}"Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)1,527,92339.56−8.85**47**−9
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}"United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)438,37211.35+4.29**12**+6
Union, Progress and Democracy}}"Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)129,4073.35+2.730±0
Andalusian Party}}"Andalusian Party (PA)196,7702.51−0.250±0
Equo}}"Equo (Equo)20,3830.53*New*0±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals}}"Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)8,7810.23*New*0±0
Blank Seats}}"Blank Seats (EB)5,6600.15*New*0±0
Hartos.org}}"Hartos.org (Hartos.org)4,9660.13*New*0±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain}}"Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)4,1190.11+0.050±0
We Won't Pay this Crisis}}"We Won't Pay this Crisis (ECNP)2,6800.07*New*0±0
Falange Española de las JONS (1976)}}"Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)2,4070.06+0.020±0
For a Fairer World}}"For a Fairer World (PUM+J)1,7040.04*New*0±0
Citizen Forum (Spain)}}"Andalusian Platform–Citizen Forum (FC)1,6340.04*New*0±0
Liberal Democratic Centre}}"Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)1,4060.04*New*0±0
Regionalist Party for Eastern Andalusia}}"Regionalist Party for Eastern Andalusia (PRAO)1,0710.03*New*0±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management}}"Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)1,0400.03−0.030±0
Communist Unification of Spain}}"Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)1,0260.03*New*0±0
Humanist Party (Spain)}}"Humanist Party (PH)8960.02−0.070±0
Andalusian Horticulture Party}}"Andalusian Horticulture Party (PHAN)8320.02*New*0±0
Socialists and Republicans (Spain)}}"Socialists and Republicans (SyR)7870.02*New*0±0
Andalusian Convergence}}"Andalusian Convergence (CAnda)7620.02−0.150±0
Spanish Alternative}}"Spanish Alternative (AES)6530.02*New*0±0
Citizens of Democratic Centre}}"Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD)6430.02*New*0±0
Republican Social Movement}}"Republican Social Movement (MSR)6280.02*New*0±0
Democratic Majority (Spain)}}"Democratic Majority (MD)5150.01*New*0±0
Family and Life Party}}"Family and Life Party (PFyV)4080.01−0.010±0
Engine and Sports Alternative}}"Engine and Sports Alternative (AMD)3620.01*New*0±0
Andalusian Social Democratic Party}}"Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA)3450.01−0.020±0
Group and Union for the Progress of Almeria}}"Group and Union for the Progress of Almeria (AUPAL)2160.01*New*0±0
Andalusian Nationalist People}}"Andalusian Nationalist People (PNdeA)1560.00*New*0±0
Regionalist Call for Andalusia}}"Regionalist Call for Andalusia (CReA)1460.00*New*0±0
Andalusian Solidary Independent Republican Party}}"Andalusian Solidary Independent Republican Party (RISA)1350.00*New*0±0
Blank ballots35,0810.91−0.15
Total3,862,747109±0
Valid votes3,862,74799.42+0.05
Invalid votes22,3900.58−0.05
Votes cast / turnout3,885,13760.78−11.89
Abstentions2,507,48339.22+11.89
Registered voters6,392,620
Sources
{{hiddenta1=lefttitle=Footnotes:content={{ubl1 Andalusian Party results are compared to Andalusian Coalition totals in the 2008 election.}}}}

Distribution by constituency

ConstituencyPPPSOE–AIULV–CAPeople's Party of Andalusia}}"Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}"United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}"%S%S%SSources
AlmeríaPeople's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"51.2**7**35.4**4**7.1**1**
CádizPeople's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"40.5**7**35.6**6**12.7**2**
CórdobaPeople's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"39.7**5**38.9**5**13.3**2**
GranadaPeople's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"43.5**6**39.5**6**10.0**1**
Huelva38.6**5**Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"43.4**5**10.9**1**
Jaén41.1**5**Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"44.5**5**8.8**1**
MálagaPeople's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"43.7**8**35.3**7**12.2**2**
Seville35.3**7**Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"43.1**9**12.2**2**
**Total**People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"40.7**50**39.6**47**11.3**12**

Aftermath

Government formation

On 3 May 2012, as a result of the PSOE–IU coalition agreement, José Antonio Griñán was re-elected as regional President. One IU deputy, Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo, cast an invalid vote in protest for not being able to elect a candidate of his own party.

Ballot →3 May 2012Required majority →
55 out of 109
{{Collapsible listtitle = Yes• PSOE–A (47)• IULV–CA (11)
{{Collapsible listtitle = No• PP (50)
Abstentions
Absentees
Sources

2013 investiture

In July 2013, President Griñán announced he was resigning from his office. As regional minister Susana Díaz was the only person able to gather the required endorsements to run in the primary election that was held to elect Griñán's successor, she was unanimously proclaimed as the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Regional Government of Andalusia. As a result, on 5 September 2013 the Parliament of Andalusia elected Díaz as new regional premier.

Ballot →5 September 2013Required majority →
55 out of 109
{{Collapsible listtitle = Yes• PSOE–A (47)• IULV–CA (11)
{{Collapsible listtitle = No• PP (48)
Abstentions
{{Collapsible listtitle = Absentees• PP (2)
Sources

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

;Other

Bibliography

References

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  2. Rubio, Juan. (24 May 2015). "¿Qué fue de las cajas de ahorros andaluzas?". El Correo de Andalucía.
  3. Moreno, Silvia. "Cronología del caso ERE". El Mundo.
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  5. Díez, Anabel. (23 March 2012). "El test de Rajoy y Rubalcaba". El País.
  6. Gómez, Manuel Vicente. (10 February 2012). "La reforma facilita y abarata el despido". El País.
  7. (9 March 2012). "El 29 de marzo, huelga general". El Mundo.
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  12. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
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  14. {{harvp. LEAn. 1986
  15. Gallagher, Michael. (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". [[Trinity College Dublin]].
  16. (30 January 2012). "Decreto del Presidente 1/2012, de 30 de enero, de disolución del Parlamento de Andalucía y de convocatoria de elecciones".
  17. {{harvp. LEAn. 1986
  18. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
  19. {{harvp. LEAn. 1986
  20. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
  21. {{harvp. Statute. 2007
  22. {{harvp. LGAn. 2006
  23. {{harvp. Statute. 2007
  24. (1 February 2011). "Las elecciones andaluzas serán el 4 de marzo de 2012". [[El País]].
  25. (27 November 2011). "Las elecciones en Andalucía serán el 25 de marzo". [[Público (Spain).
  26. (29 July 2011). "Griñán no adelantará las autonómicas en Andalucía". [[El Diario Vasco]].
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  28. {{harvp. LEAn. 1986
  29. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
  30. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
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  32. (12 March 2010). "José Antonio Griñán, nuevo secretario general del PSOE en Andalucía". [[RTVE]].
  33. (18 September 2010). "Griñán será el candidato en 2012 por el apoyo "casi unánime" del PSOE". [[Diario de Sevilla]].
  34. (20 September 2008). "Javier Arenas, reelegido presidente del PP andaluz por cuarta vez". RTVE.
  35. Limón, Raúl. (15 December 2011). "El PP designa a Arenas candidato a la presidencia de la Junta de Andalucía". El País.
  36. Pedrote, Isabel. (3 November 2008). "Valderas supera el 74% en su reelección como líder de IU". El País.
  37. (9 September 2011). "El Consejo Andaluz de IU designa a Valderas candidato a la Presidencia de la Junta". Europa Press.
  38. (8 December 2011). "Pilar González, ratificada candidata a la Junta por el PA". [[ABC (newspaper).
  39. Rivas, Christopher. (17 September 2011). "Martín de la Herrán, candidato de UPyD a la Junta de Andalucía". Sevilla Actualidad.
  40. (8 March 2012). "La campaña de los 5.000 kilómetros". El Mundo.
  41. Tortosa, María Dolores. (13 March 2012). "La ausencia de Arenas en el debate de Canal Sur tensa la campaña". Diario Sur.
  42. (14 March 2012). "Valderas y Griñán reúnen a 358.000 andaluces". Diario de Sevilla.
  43. (25 March 2012). "Avances de participación". [[Regional Government of Andalusia]].
  44. (17 April 2012). "Resolución de 12 de abril de 2012, de la Junta Electoral de Andalucía, por la que se hacen públicos los resultados generales y por circunscripciones, así como la relación de diputados proclamados electos en las elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía celebradas el día 25 de marzo de 2012". [[Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia]].
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