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2012 Andalusian regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Andalusia
Election in the Spanish region of Andalusia
| Field | Value | |
|---|---|---|
| election_name | 2012 Andalusian regional election | |
| country | Andalusia | |
| type | parliamentary | |
| ongoing | no | |
| previous_election | 2008 Andalusian regional election | |
| previous_year | 2008 | |
| next_election | 2015 Andalusian regional election | |
| next_year | 2015 | |
| seats_for_election | All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia | |
| majority_seats | 55 | |
| opinion_polls | #Opinion polls | |
| registered | 6,392,620 2.6% | |
| turnout | 3,885,137 (60.8%) | |
| 11.9 pp | ||
| election_date | 25 March 2012 | |
| image1 | [[File:Javier Arenas (cropped).jpg | 170x170px]] |
| leader1 | Javier Arenas | |
| party1 | People's Party of Andalusia | |
| leader_since1 | 18 April 2004 | |
| leaders_seat1 | Almería | |
| last_election1 | 47 seats, 38.5% | |
| seats1 | 50 | |
| seat_change1 | 3 | |
| popular_vote1 | 1,570,833 | |
| percentage1 | 40.7% | |
| swing1 | 2.2 pp | |
| image2 | [[File:José Antonio Griñán 2012 (cropped)-2.jpg | 170x170px]] |
| leader2 | José Antonio Griñán | |
| party2 | PSOE–A | |
| leader_since2 | 23 April 2009 | |
| leaders_seat2 | Seville | |
| last_election2 | 56 seats, 48.4% | |
| seats2 | 47 | |
| seat_change2 | 9 | |
| popular_vote2 | 1,527,923 | |
| percentage2 | 39.6% | |
| swing2 | 8.8 pp | |
| image3 | [[File:Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg | 170x170px]] |
| leader3 | Diego Valderas | |
| party3 | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia | |
| leader_since3 | 10 October 2000 | |
| leaders_seat3 | Huelva | |
| last_election3 | 6 seats, 7.1% | |
| seats3 | 12 | |
| seat_change3 | 6 | |
| popular_vote3 | 438,372 | |
| percentage3 | 11.3% | |
| swing3 | 4.2 pp | |
| map_image | AndalusiaProvinceMapParliament2012.png | |
| map_size | 375px | |
| map_caption | Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia | |
| title | President | |
| before_election | José Antonio Griñán | |
| before_party | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia | |
| after_election | José Antonio Griñán | |
| after_party | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia |
11.9 pp
A regional election was held in Andalusia on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with a regional election in Asturias.
Being a Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) stronghold for decades, the People's Party (PP) had scored a decisive win in the region in the November 2011 general election and was widely expected to come out on top in the regional election for the first time in its history, with opinion polls suggesting it could win an absolute majority on its own. The election, however, came to be seen as the first major electoral test for the national government of Mariano Rajoy since coming to power in December 2011, with Rajoy's policies of raising taxes and the passing of a new, harsher labour reform having triggered a general strike for 29 March. Incumbent President José Antonio Griñán chose not to hold the election simultaneously with the 2011 general election, the first time since 1994 that both elections were not held at the same time.
Final results showed a surprising close race between the PP and the PSOE–A, the first emerging out on top but falling five seats short of an overall majority. In contrast, the PSOE–A held its own and retained 47 seats despite polls predicting a tougher defeat, allowing Griñán to remain in power through a coalition government with United Left (IULV–CA), which doubled its seat count from 6 to 12 and was placed in a "kingmaker" position.
Background
The 2008 election had seen Manuel Chaves secure a sixth term in office as president of the Regional Government of Andalusia, having governed the autonomous community uninterruptedly during the previous 18 years. However, Chaves's long tenure had already started taking a toll on his popularity in opinion polls, and in April 2009 he vacated the regional presidency in order to become third deputy prime minister in the second government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. José Antonio Griñán, second vice president of the Andalusian government since 2008 and regional minister for Economy and Finance since 2004, succeeded Chaves at the helm of the regional government.
During Griñán's term, his party had to deal with the worsening economic situation resulting from the financial crisis affecting Spain since 2008, with rising unemployment reaching record heights and traditional savings banks being dismantled for being economically unsustainable. The PSOE–A also had to cope with the political fallout resulting from the ERE scandal, a corruption scheme involving the ruling party, as well as the Workers' Commissions (CCOO) and General Union of Workers (UGT) trade unions, which saw irregular payments to politicians, civil servants and companies aligned to the PSOE in exchange for loyalties and favours meant to sustain the party in power. Those payments were charged to an economic fund intended to support companies with problems—more specifically, those that were forced to undergo "Employment Regulation Procedures" (in Spanish, Expedientes de Regulación de Empleo or ERE, terminology that gave the scandal its name)—. The scandal first came under investigation in January 2011, and by the time of the 2012 regional election judicial inquiries reached out to government officers and renown figures.
The opposition People's Party (PP) of Mariano Rajoy won a resounding victory in the 2011 general election in Andalusia, winning in both seats and popular vote for the first time ever in this autonomous community since the Spanish transition to democracy: the PP obtained 1,985,612 votes (45.57%) and 33 seats to Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A)'s 1,594,893 votes (36.60%) and 25 seats, after losing 800,000 votes and 11 seats from those won in the 2008 general election. United Left (IULV–CA) won 2 seats from Seville and Málaga and 8.27% of the share with 360,212 votes. Results projections based on the results of the general election gave the PP an absolute majority with 58 seats—out of 109 up for election—, with the PSOE in a distant second place with 43 seats. IULV–CA would keep its 6 seats on the projections while Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) could enter the Parliament of Andalusia with 2 seats. Had those results been confirmed, it would have meant the end of a 30 year-long hegemony of Socialist rule in the community, the party having been in power since the creation of the Andalusian autonomous community.
The regularly scheduled 2012 election in Andalusia, which was unexpectedly joined by a snap election in Asturias, came to be seen as the first major electoral test for the national government of Mariano Rajoy since coming to power in December 2011. Rajoy's policies of raising taxes and the passing of a new, harsher labour reform had triggered a general strike scheduled for 29 March.
Overview
Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.
Electoral system
Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote, nor being legally incapacitated. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Spaniards abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote ().
The Parliament of Andalusia was entitled to a minimum of 109 seats, with the electoral law setting its size at that number. All members were elected in eight multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied in each constituency. The use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:
| Seats | Constituencies |
|---|---|
| **18** | Seville |
| **17** | Málaga |
| **15** | Cádiz |
| **13** | Granada |
| **12** | Almería, Córdoba |
| **11** | Huelva, Jaén |
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.
Election date
The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the scheduled date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 9 March 2008, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 9 March 2012. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 14 February 2012, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 8 April 2012.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.
Several dates were considered for the election. Initially scheduled for either 4 or 18 March, the result of the general election on 20 November 2011 made it advisable for Griñán to push the date further away to the last Sunday of March, in order to push the legislature to the limit and distance himself from the November election result. This marked the first time since 1994 that an Andalusian regional election was not held concurrently with a Spanish general election, as then-Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had announced a general election—initially scheduled for March 2012—four months ahead of schedule, on 20 November 2011, whereas Griñán chose not to follow suit and to maintain the date of the regional election for early 2012.
The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 31 January 2012 with the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOJA, setting election day for 25 March and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 19 April.
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | Seats | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}" | Socialist Parliamentary Group | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}" | PSOE–A | 56 | ||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}" | Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group | People's Party of Andalusia}}" | PP | 47 | ||
| United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}" | United Left/The Greens Parliamentary Group | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}" | IULV–CA | 6 |
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| alliances | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | Vote % | Seats | |||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}" | **PSOE–A** | {{Collapsible list | title = List | bullets = on | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) | [[File:José Antonio Griñán 2012 (cropped)-2.jpg | 50px]] | José Antonio Griñán | Social democracy | |
| People's Party of Andalusia}}" | **PP** | {{Collapsible list | title = List | bullets = on | People's Party (PP) | [[File:Javier Arenas (cropped).jpg | 50px]] | Javier Arenas | Conservatism | |
| Christian democracy | ||||||||||
| United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}" | **IULV–CA** | {{Collapsible list | title = List | bullets = on | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) | |||||
| – Communist Party of Andalusia (PCA) | ||||||||||
| – Collective for the Unity of Workers–Andalusian Left Bloc (CUT–BAI) | ||||||||||
| – Revolutionary Workers' Party (POR) | ||||||||||
| – Republican Left (IR) | ||||||||||
| – Open Left (IzAb) | [[File:Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg | 50px]] | Diego Valderas | Socialism | ||||||
| Communism | ||||||||||
| Andalusian Party}}" | **PA** | {{Collapsible list | title = List | bullets = on | Andalusian Party (PA) | [[File:Portrait placeholder.svg | 50px]] | Pilar González | Andalusian nationalism | |
| Social democracy | ||||||||||
| Union, Progress and Democracy}}" | **UPyD** | {{Collapsible list | title = List | bullets = on | Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | [[File:Portrait placeholder.svg | 50px]] | Martín de la Herrán | Social liberalism | |
| Radical centrism |
Campaign
Party slogans
| Party or alliance | Original slogan | English translation | Ref. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}" | PSOE–A | « Andalucía, por el camino seguro » | "Andalusia, through the safe way" | |
| People's Party of Andalusia}}" | PP | « El cambio andaluz » | "The Andalusian change" | |
| United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}" | IULV–CA | « Rebélate! » | "Rebel!" | |
| Andalusian Party}}" | PA | « PAlante » | "Forward" | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy}}" | UPyD | « Lo que nos une » | "What unites us" |
Election debates
| Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | Present Surrogate | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not invited Invited Absent invitee | PSOE–A | PP | IULV–CA | Audience | Ref. | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};" | People's Party of Andalusia}};" | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};" | |||
| 12 March | Canal Sur | Mabel Mata | 10.1% | ||||||||
| (358,000) |
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.
;Color key:
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | [[File:Logo PSOE-A.svg | 25px | link=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia | PSOE–A]] | [[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2008-2015).svg | 28px | link=People's Party of Andalusia | PP]] | IULV | [[File:PA logo.svg | 25px | link=Andalusian Party | PA]] | [[File:Logo de UPyD.png | 27px | link=Union, Progress and Democracy | UPyD]] | Lead | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};" | People's Party of Andalusia}};" | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};" | Andalusian Party}};" | Union, Progress and Democracy}};" | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **2012 regional election** | 25 Mar 2012 | 60.8 | 39.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **40.7** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía, según el sondeo de Ipsos | url=http://www.canalsur.es/el_pp_roza_la_mayoria_absoluta_en_andalucia_segun_el_sondeo_de_ipsos/197913.html | language=es | work=Canal Sur | date=25 March 2012}} | 25 Mar 2012 | ? | 60.4 | 39.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **42.0** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP ganará el domingo por mayoría absoluta pese al leve repunte de Griñán | url=http://www.libertaddigital.com/nacional/2012-03-19/el-pp-ganara-el-domingo-por-mayoria-absoluta-pese-al-leve-repunte-de-grinan-1276453417/ | language=es | work=Libertad Digital | date=19 March 2012}} | 19 Mar 2012 | ? | ? | 38.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **46.7** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP de Arenas se mueve en el entorno de la mayoría absoluta | url=http://diariodigital.ujaen.es/files_viccom/1903201204.pdf | language=es | work=Diario Jaén | date=19 March 2012 | access-date=6 March 2015 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150402092358/http://diariodigital.ujaen.es/files_viccom/1903201204.pdf | archive-date=2 April 2015 | url-status=dead }} | 12–16 Mar 2012 | 1,500 | ? | 36.8 | |||||||||||||||||||
| **42.9** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP sigue sin amarrar la mayoría absoluta a una semana de los comicios | url=http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CFAfKrA3Ui0/T2Vyk-NrR_I/AAAAAAAABMw/Q2s36eNYUvo/s1600/3+ENCUESTA+EL+MUNDO+SIGMA+DOS+Elecciones+Andalucia+Resultado+estimado+por+provincias.jpg | language=es | work=El Mundo | date=18 March 2012}} | 12–15 Mar 2012 | 2,000 | ? | 36.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **45.8** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| last1=Barbero | first1=Luis | title=Victoria clara del PP en Andalucía | url=https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2012/03/17/actualidad/1332013184_144743.html | language=es | work=El País | date=17 March 2012}} | 6–15 Mar 2012 | 1,200 | ? | 34.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| **47.3** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 12.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Arenas arrebata al PSOE 245.000 votantes para su mayoría absoluta | url=http://www.larazon.es/noticia/8897-arenas-arrebata-al-psoe-245-000-votantes-para-su-mayoria-absoluta | language=es | work=La Razón | date=19 March 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120321205901/http://www.larazon.es/noticia/8897-arenas-arrebata-al-psoe-245-000-votantes-para-su-mayoria-absoluta | archive-date=21 March 2012 }} | 1–15 Mar 2012 | 2,700 | 67.6 | 36.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| **46.0** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP alcanza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía | url=http://cadenaser.com/ser/2012/03/16/espana/1331859013_850215.html | language=es | work=Cadena SER | date=16 March 2012}} | 12–13 Mar 2012 | 800 | ? | 36.0 | **46.7** | 8.8 | 4.1 | 2.8 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=Arenas afianza su mayoría absoluta | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2012/03/18/020.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=18 March 2012}} | 7–12 Mar 2012 | 1,000 | ? | 35.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **47.0** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Arenas ganará en Andalucía por mayoría absoluta | url=http://www.intereconomia.com/noticias-gaceta/politica/arenas-ganara-andalucia-por-mayoria-absoluta-20120317 | language=es | work=Intereconomía | date=18 March 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120319035004/http://www.intereconomia.com/noticias-gaceta/politica/arenas-ganara-andalucia-por-mayoria-absoluta-20120317 | archive-date=19 March 2012 }} | 5–12 Mar 2012 | 1,500 | ? | 37.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| **45.2** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | ? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=PP-A ganaría por mayoría absoluta con 56-58 escaños y 9,4 puntos sobre el PSOE-A, según una encuesta de GAD3 | url=http://www.europapress.es/andalucia/elecciones-00761/noticia-pp-ganaria-mayoria-absoluta-56-58-escanos-94-puntos-psoe-encuesta-gad3-20120309152722.html | language=es | work=Europa Press | date=9 March 2012}} | 5–8 Mar 2012 | 750 | 63 | 36.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **46.2** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PSOE pierde 662.000 votantes | url=http://www.larazon.es/noticia/7851-el-psoe-pierde-662-000-votantes | language=es | work=La Razón | date=12 March 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120314165743/http://www.larazon.es/noticia/7851-el-psoe-pierde-662-000-votantes | archive-date=14 March 2012 }} | 20 Feb–6 Mar 2012 | 2,700 | 67.7 | 35.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| **45.7** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP de Javier Arenas se sitúa en el umbral de la mayoría absoluta | url=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andaluzas2012/PP-Javier-Arenas-mayoria-absoluta_0_568743177.html | language=es | work=Diario de Sevilla | date=11 March 2012}} | 13–29 Feb 2012 | 1,001 | ? | 36.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **45.2** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2012. Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía (Estudio nº 2931. Febrero 2012) | url=https://www.cis.es/documents/d/cis/es2931mar_a | language=es | work=CIS | date=8 March 2012}} | 15–27 Feb 2012 | 3,139 | ? | 37.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **44.9** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP tiene en su mano la mayoría absoluta a un mes de los comicios | url=http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Kyhu2OUW1VY/T0xlVkEEgfI/AAAAAAAAA0o/nmITEX2aajs/s1600/2+SONDEO+EL+MUNDO+-+SIGMA+DOS+Elecciones+en+Andalucia+El+PP+aventaja+en+8,7++puntos+al+PSOE+pero+podria+depender+de+UPyD+para+gobernar.jpg | language=es | work=El Mundo | date=28 February 2012}} | 22–24 Feb 2012 | 2,000 | ? | 36.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **45.0** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Encuesta preelectoral Andalucía. Febrero 2012 | url=http://s.libertaddigital.com/doc/encuenta-gespa-para-el-pp-41912517.pdf | language=es | work=GESPA | date=27 February 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140814213833/http://s.libertaddigital.com/doc/encuenta-gespa-para-el-pp-41912517.pdf | archive-date=14 August 2014 }} | 6–22 Feb 2012 | 2,000 | ? | 37.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| **46.7** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP consolida la mayoría absoluta | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2012/02/28/020.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=28 February 2012}} | 8–16 Feb 2012 | 1,500 | ? | 36.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **46.3** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 10.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Un sondeo rebaja las opciones de Arenas de lograr la mayoría absoluta | url=http://www.cepes-andalucia.es/fileadmin/media/noticias/Resenas_12_Mar/res_44036234.pdf | language=es | work=El Correo de Andalucía | date=28 February 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140728030917/http://www.cepes-andalucia.es/fileadmin/media/noticias/Resenas_12_Mar/res_44036234.pdf | archive-date=28 July 2014 }} | 1–14 Feb 2012 | 1,600 | 71.5 | 37.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| **45.1** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP conquista Sevilla ante el descalabro de Griñán | url=http://www.larazon.es/noticia/5182-el-pp-conquista-sevilla-ante-el-descalabro-de-grinan | language=es | work=La Razón | date=14 February 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120215135609/http://www.larazon.es/noticia/5182-el-pp-conquista-sevilla-ante-el-descalabro-de-grinan | archive-date=15 February 2012 }} | 1–13 Feb 2012 | ? | 67.6 | 34.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| **47.4** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 13.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Arenas tumba a Griñán | url=http://www.larazon.es/noticia/2428-arenas-tumba-a-grinan | language=es | work=La Razón | date=30 January 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120201180205/http://www.larazon.es/noticia/2428-arenas-tumba-a-grinan | archive-date=1 February 2012 }} | 30 Jan 2012 | ? | 67.3 | 35.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| **46.9** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El hundimiento del PSOE consolida la mayoría absoluta del PP en Andalucía | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/2012/02/03/018.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=3 February 2012}} | 16–24 Jan 2012 | 1,500 | ? | 35.2 | **47.1** | 8.5 | 2.1 | 4.7 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=La mayoría absoluta de Arenas pende de dos escaños | url=http://www.libertaddigital.com/nacional/2012-01-22/la-mayoria-absoluta-del-pp-en-andalucia-pende-de-dos-escanos-en-disputa-1276447691/ | language=es | work=Libertad Digital | date=22 January 2012}} | 22 Jan 2012 | 2,400 | ? | 36.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **43.7** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2011 | url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_51/CUADERNO%20EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%202011.pdf | language=es | work=CADPEA | date=12 January 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120621025822/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_51/CUADERNO%20EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%202011.pdf | archive-date=21 June 2012 }} | 1–30 Dec 2011 | 3,200 | 63.4 | 37.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| **47.0** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **2011 general election** | 20 Nov 2011 | 68.9 | 36.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **45.6** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Barómetro Joly de Opinión Pública en Andalucía: resultados acumulados a octubre de 2011 (9ª ola) | url=http://media.grupojoly.com//0000958500/0000958532.pdf | language=es | work=Commentia | date=6 November 2011 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111109220731/http://media.grupojoly.com//0000958500/0000958532.pdf | archive-date=9 November 2011 }} | 18–24 Oct 2011 | 501 | ? | 34.8 | **49.4** | 8.4 | 2.0 | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 14.6 | |||||||||||||||
| title=Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. Noviembre, 2011 | url=http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/200520130.pdf | language=es | work=IESA | date=30 November 2011 | access-date=5 January 2018 | archive-date=6 January 2018 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180106071927/http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/200520130.pdf | url-status=dead }} | 26 Sep–21 Oct 2011 | 3,682 | 69.8 | 36.0 | **46.4** | 8.1 | 2.8 | 3.2 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 10.4 | |||||||||||||
| title=Maquillan un sondeo oficial para que Griñán supere a Arenas en valoración | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2011/07/29/034.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=29 July 2011}} | 29 Jul 2011 | ? | 68.2 | 33.2 | **50.2** | 8.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 17.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=Otra encuesta, la primera tras el 22M, da al PP mayoría absoluta | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2011/07/24/046.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=24 July 2011}} | 14–19 Jul 2011 | 800 | ? | 34.2 | **50.4** | 7.7 | 2.8 | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 16.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2011 | url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_50/EGOPA%20VERANO%202011.pdf | language=es | work=CADPEA | date=29 July 2011 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110924195126/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_50/EGOPA%20VERANO%202011.pdf | archive-date=24 September 2011 }} | 6 Jun–11 Jul 2011 | 3,600 | 69.9 | 34.3 | **48.9** | 8.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 14.6 | |||||||||||||||
| title=Una encuesta interna del PSOE da al PP 7 puntos de ventaja en Andalucía | url=http://elcorreoweb.es/historico/una-encuesta-interna-del-psoe-da-al-pp-7-puntos-de-ventaja-en-andalucia-LGEC338157 | language=es | work=El Correo de Andalucía | date=28 July 2011}} | 4–10 Jul 2011 | 1,514 | ? | 39.0 | **46.0** | 6.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| **2011 local elections** | 22 May 2011 | 65.8 | 32.5 | **39.4** | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP amarra la mayoría pero frena su ascenso | url=http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Kpdd_uIkeaw/TbZa099SRTI/AAAAAAAAA0c/bb9kH4YrUjI/s1600/4d+SONDEO+EL+MUNDO-SIGMA+DOS+%2528III%2529++Andalucia+El+PP+amarra+la+mayoria.jpg | language=es | work=El Mundo | date=26 April 2011}} | 12–15 Apr 2011 | 1,200 | ? | 36.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **48.0** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP ganaría por mayoría absoluta en Andalucía tras 30 años de autonomía | url=https://elpais.com/diario/2011/02/28/espana/1298847607_850215.html | language=es | work=El País | date=28 February 2011}} | 21–22 Feb 2011 | 804 | ? | 35.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **47.5** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 12.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP saca siete puntos al PSOE y consolida sus opciones de gobernar | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2011/02/28/038.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=28 February 2011}} | 10–20 Feb 2011 | 1,600 | ? | 38.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **45.3** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP dobla la ventaja sobre el PSOE en un año y se sitúa en la mayoría absoluta | url=http://www.lavozdigital.es/cadiz/20110227/local/andalucia/dobla-ventaja-sobre-psoe-201102271150.html | language=es | work=La Voz de Cádiz | date=27 February 2011}} | 15–18 Feb 2011 | 800 | ? | 38.2 | **47.6** | 7.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP acrecienta la diferencia con el PSOE y lo deja a 10,2 puntos | url=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PP-acrecienta-diferencia-PSOE-puntos_0_455354893.html | language=es | work=Diario de Sevilla | date=27 February 2011}} | 9–16 Feb 2011 | 500 | ? | 36.9 | **47.1** | 8.5 | 2.9 | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP obtendría la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía (Gespa) | url=http://www.electometro.es:80/2011/02/el-pp-obtendria-la-mayoria-absoluta-en-andalucia-gespa/ | language=es | work=Electómetro | date=21 February 2011 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110225210338/http://www.electometro.es/2011/02/el-pp-obtendria-la-mayoria-absoluta-en-andalucia-gespa/ | archive-date=25 February 2011 | access-date=8 August 2021 | url-status=live }} | 1–4 Feb 2011 | 1,111 | ? | 37.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| **46.1** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Instantáneas de la Sociedad Andaluza. Febrero, 2011 | url=http://www.cepes-andalucia.es/fileadmin/media/noticias/Tripticos/20110221_Resumen_Informe_Instantaneas_de_la_Sociedad_Andaluza.pdf | language=es | work=CEPES–A | date=21 February 2011 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110303151158/http://www.cepes-andalucia.es/fileadmin/media/noticias/Tripticos/20110221_Resumen_Informe_Instantaneas_de_la_Sociedad_Andaluza.pdf | archive-date=3 March 2011 }} | 18 Jan–2 Feb 2011 | 1,200 | 73.0 | 39.7 | **46.2** | 7.6 | 3.2 | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||
| title=El PP conquista los grandes feudos de los socialistas | url=http://www.larazon.es:80/noticia/1719-el-pp-conquista-los-grandes-feudos-de-los-socialistas | language=es | work=La Razón | date=22 January 2011 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110305113906/http://www.larazon.es/noticia/1719-el-pp-conquista-los-grandes-feudos-de-los-socialistas | archive-date=5 March 2011 | access-date=6 May 2013 | url-status=dead }} | 30 Dec–3 Jan 2011 | ? | ? | 39.1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| **46.2** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP de Arenas obtiene una mayoría absoluta más sólida que la del PSOE | url=http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_0X0fuad8-LY/TSgtJE6hG0I/AAAAAAAAAMg/Ox9wySP_fWQ/s1600/4+Super+ENCUESTA+SIGMA+DOS-+EL+MUNDO+ANDALUCIA.jpg | language=es | work=El Mundo | date=8 January 2011}} | 20–23 Dec 2010 | 1,200 | ? | 36.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **49.3** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 12.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2010 | url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_49/CUADERNO%20EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%2010.pdf | language=es | work=CADPEA | date=24 January 2011 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110720162222/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_49/CUADERNO%20EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%2010.pdf | archive-date=20 July 2011 }} | 24 Nov–22 Dec 2010 | 3,200 | 75.2 | 36.2 | **45.4** | 8.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||
| title=Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. Diciembre, 2010 | url=http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/301120111.pdf | language=es | work=IESA | date=20 December 2010 | access-date=6 May 2013 | archive-date=27 June 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120627093301/http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/301120111.pdf | url-status=dead }} | 18 Oct–18 Nov 2010 | 3,655 | 71.0 | 37.7 | |||||||||||||||||||
| **46.8** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El giro político de Zapatero apenas recorta la ventaja del PP andaluz | url=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/politico-Zapatero-ventaja-PP-andaluz_0_421758330.html | language=es | work=Diario de Sevilla | date=7 November 2010}} | 21–27 Oct 2010 | 502 | ? | 39.1 | **46.2** | 7.0 | 2.7 | 2.1 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=Un nuevo sondeo da al PP-A la mayoría absoluta por cuarta vez consecutiva | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2010/10/04/041.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=4 October 2010}} | 20–26 Sep 2010 | 1,111 | ? | 38.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **45.5** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2010 | url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_42/Cuaderno%20EGOPA%20Verano%202010.pdf | language=es | work=CADPEA | date=28 July 2010 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100928031441/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_42/Cuaderno%20EGOPA%20Verano%202010.pdf | archive-date=28 September 2010 }} | 7 Jun–6 Jul 2010 | 3,200 | 72.1 | 38.0 | **45.1** | 8.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||
| title=El PP rompe el empate con creces y adelanta al PSOE en siete puntos | url=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PP-creces-adelanta-PSOE-puntos_0_381861912.html | language=es | work=Diario de Sevilla | date=27 June 2010}} | 10–15 Jun 2010 | 806 | ? | 38.1 | **45.4** | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP llega a las puertas de la Junta al lograr por primera vez mayoría absoluta | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2010/06/21/036.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=21 June 2010}} | 8–12 Jun 2010 | 817 | ? | 38.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **44.3** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP avanza y gana en Andalucía | url=https://elpais.com/diario/2010/02/28/espana/1267311604_850215.html | language=es | work=El País | date=28 February 2010}} | 15–18 Feb 2010 | 804 | ? | 41.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **43.3** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP no pasa del empate técnico en Andalucía | url=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PP-pasa-empate-tecnico-Andalucia_0_345865637.html | language=es | work=Diario de Sevilla | date=27 February 2010}} | 9–15 Feb 2010 | 801 | ? | **42.9** | 42.5 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP supera al PSOE en 3,9 puntos y lograría una amplia mayoría | url=http://www.lavozdigital.es/cadiz/20100228/local/andalucia/supera-psoe-puntos-lograria-201002280946.html | language=es | work=La Voz de Cádiz | date=28 February 2010}} | 8–15 Feb 2010 | 800 | ? | 41.8 | **45.7** | 6.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP gana al PSOE por 2,1 puntos y se queda a tres escaños de la mayoría absoluta | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2010/02/21/044.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=21 February 2010}} | 25 Jan–12 Feb 2010 | 1,600 | ? | 40.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| **42.9** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno 2009-2010 | url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_40/CUADERNILLO%20EGOPA%20INVIERNO%202009-2010.pdf | language=es | work=CADPEA | date=18 February 2010 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100928034329/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_40/CUADERNILLO%20EGOPA%20INVIERNO%202009-2010.pdf | archive-date=28 September 2010 }} | 7–29 Jan 2010 | 3,200 | 76.7 | **43.2** | 41.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||
| title=Una maratón con 'foto finish' | url=http://elcorreoweb.es/historico/una-maraton-con-foto-finish-GFEC218358 | language=es | work=El Correo de Andalucía | date=20 February 2010}} | 11–28 Jan 2010 | 1,800 | ? | **41.8** | 41.1 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=Instantáneas de la Sociedad Andaluza. Febrero del 2010 | url=http://media.grupojoly.com//0000501000/0000501083.pdf | language=es | work=CEPES–A | date=16 February 2010 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140808175207/http://media.grupojoly.com//0000501000/0000501083.pdf | archive-date=8 August 2014 }} | 20–28 Jan 2010 | 1,207 | 71.0 | 41.3 | **41.9** | 6.9 | 3.9 | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||
| title=Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. 2009 | url=http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/141220123.pdf | language=es | work=IESA | date=15 January 2010 | access-date=5 January 2018 | archive-date=6 January 2018 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180106073520/http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/141220123.pdf | url-status=dead }} | 1–30 Nov 2009 | 3,645 | 70.5 | 41.6 | **43.2** | 7.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 1.6 | |||||||||||||
| title=El desgaste de Zapatero y la respuesta a la crisis contagian al PSOE andaluz | url=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/desgaste-Zapatero-respuesta-contagian-PSOE_0_306269817.html | language=es | work=Diario de Sevilla | date=18 October 2009}} | 23 Sep–2 Oct 2009 | 1,002 | 75 | **42.7** | 42.2 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2009 | url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_39/CUADERNILLO%20EGOPA%20VERANO%202009.pdf | language=es | work=CADPEA | date=31 July 2009 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100928031643/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_39/CUADERNILLO%20EGOPA%20VERANO%202009.pdf | archive-date=28 September 2010 }} | 9 Jun–9 Jul 2009 | 3,200 | 74.9 | **46.2** | 39.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||
| title=El PSOE le sigue sacando 6,5 puntos al PP a pesar de la marcha de su líder | url=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PSOE-sacando-puntos-PP-marcha_0_272672959.html | language=es | work=Diario de Sevilla | date=28 June 2009}} | 28 Jun 2009 | 1,003 | 75 | **45.6** | 39.1 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=Un sondeo del PP le sitúa a 1,3 puntos del PSOE en intención de voto | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2009/07/04/040.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=4 July 2009}} | 16–24 Jun 2009 | 2,500 | ? | **44.1** | 42.8 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=Un sondeo da mayoría absoluta al PSOE andaluz | url=https://elpais.com/diario/2009/06/22/andalucia/1245622933_850215.html | language=es | work=El País | date=22 June 2009}} | 25 May–19 Jun 2009 | 1,400 | ? | **48.6** | 40.2 | 6.2 | 1.8 | – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| **2009 EP election** | 7 Jun 2009 | 41.7 | **48.2** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 39.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Ligero desgaste del PSOE y mejora del PP | url=http://www.lavozdigital.es/cadiz/20090228/ciudadanos/ligero-desgaste-psoe-mejora-20090228.html | language=es | work=La Voz de Cádiz | date=28 February 2009}} | 19–23 Feb 2009 | 800 | ? | **46.8** | 40.5 | 7.2 | 1.9 | – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP se sitúa a un punto del PSOE en Andalucía | url=https://elpais.com/elpais/2009/02/28/actualidad/1235812617_850215.html | language=es | work=El País | date=28 February 2009}} | 10–12 Feb 2009 | 800 | 73.3 | **44.3** | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 43.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PSOE le sigue sacando siete puntos al PP a pesar de la crisis | url=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/sevilla/PSOE-sacando-puntos-PP-crisis_0_236676693.html | language=es | work=Diario de Sevilla | date=28 February 2009}} | 29 Jan–11 Feb 2009 | 1,000 | ? | **46.2** | 39.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=El PSOE pierde su mayoría absoluta por la subida del PP, que se sitúa a sólo tres puntos | url=http://hemeroteca.sevilla.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2009/02/28/040.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=28 February 2009}} | 5–9 Feb 2009 | 1,600 | ? | **45.8** | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 42.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PSOE baja tres puntos en intención de voto mientras el PP sigue subiendo | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2009/02/24/041.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=24 February 2009}} | 20–30 Jan 2009 | 1,202 | 70.5 | **45.8** | 39.6 | 7.9 | 3.1 | – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| last1=Pedrote | first1=Isabel | title=Un sondeo del PP apunta el empate | url=https://elpais.com/diario/2009/01/10/andalucia/1231543331_850215.html | language=es | work=El País | date=10 January 2009}} | 9–19 Dec 2008 | 2,000 | ? | **44.7** | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 43.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2008 | url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_32/EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%202008.pdf | language=es | work=CADPEA | date=22 January 2009 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140809184948/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_32/EGOPA%20OTO%C3%91O%202008.pdf | archive-date=9 August 2014 }} | 14 Nov–12 Dec 2008 | 3,200 | 74.7 | **46.2** | 38.8 | 7.5 | 2.2 | – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||
| title=Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. Diciembre, 2008 | url=http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/031220130.pdf | language=es | work=IESA | date=10 January 2009 | access-date=5 January 2018 | archive-date=6 January 2018 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180106072613/http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/031220130.pdf | url-status=dead }} | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2008 | 3,658 | 71.8 | **47.0** | 40.8 | 6.2 | 2.5 | – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 6.2 | |||||||||||||
| title=El PSOE apenas sufre el efecto de la crisis | url=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PSOE-apenas-sufre-efecto-crisis_0_197080913.html | language=es | work=Diario de Sevilla | date=19 October 2008}} | 20 Sep–2 Oct 2008 | 1,007 | ? | **46.5** | 39.6 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| title=Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2008 | url=http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_31/cuadernillo%20EGOPA%20VERANO%202008.pdf | language=es | work=CADPEA | date=31 July 2008 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100928031824/http://cadpea.ugr.es/documentos/EGOPA/EGOPA_31/cuadernillo%20EGOPA%20VERANO%202008.pdf | archive-date=28 September 2010 }} | 2 Jun–4 Jul 2008 | 3,200 | 74.0 | **46.7** | 38.1 | 7.9 | 2.0 | – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||
| **[2008 regional election](2008-andalusian-regional-election)** | 9 Mar 2008 | 72.7 | **48.4** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 38.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.9 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | [[File:Logo PSOE-A.svg | 25px | link=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia | PSOE–A]] | [[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2008-2015).svg | 28px | link=People's Party of Andalusia | PP]] | IULV | [[File:PA logo.svg | 25px | link=Andalusian Party | PA]] | [[File:Logo de UPyD.png | 27px | link=Union, Progress and Democracy | UPyD]] | Lead | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};" | People's Party of Andalusia}};" | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};" | Andalusian Party}};" | Union, Progress and Democracy}};" | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **2012 regional election** | 25 Mar 2012 | 24.5 | **25.2** | 7.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 37.8 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| CIS | 15–27 Feb 2012 | 3,139 | **29.6** | 25.3 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 19.9 | 9.6 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||
| CADPEA/UGR | 1–30 Dec 2011 | 3,200 | 21.4 | **31.3** | 6.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 22.6 | 8.8 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||
| **2011 general election** | 20 Nov 2011 | 25.6 | **31.9** | 5.8 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 29.3 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 18–24 Oct 2011 | 501 | 21.9 | **34.0** | – | – | – | – | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 26 Sep–21 Oct 2011 | 3,682 | 23.4 | **32.4** | 5.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 23.3 | 6.1 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| CADPEA/UGR | 6 Jun–11 Jul 2011 | 3,600 | 18.5 | **32.0** | 5.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 27.8 | 8.3 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 13.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
| IMC/ABC | 10–20 Feb 2011 | 1,600 | 28.9 | **32.5** | 4.6 | 1.8 | – | 25.9 | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 9–16 Feb 2011 | 500 | 21.3 | **29.8** | – | – | – | – | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
| CADPEA/UGR | 24 Nov–22 Dec 2010 | 3,200 | 20.8 | **27.0** | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 24.2 | 12.6 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 18 Oct–18 Nov 2010 | 3,655 | 22.5 | **30.8** | 5.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 27.8 | 6.8 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 21–27 Oct 2010 | 502 | 23.4 | **30.4** | – | – | – | – | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| CADPEA/UGR | 7 Jun–6 Jul 2010 | 3,200 | 22.5 | **25.4** | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 21.7 | 13.6 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 10–15 Jun 2010 | 806 | 23.0 | **31.1** | – | – | – | – | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| title=El PP no pasa del empate técnico en Andalucía | url=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/PP-pasa-empate-tecnico-Andalucia_0_345865637.html | language=es | work=Diario de Sevilla | date=27 February 2010}} | 9–15 Feb 2010 | 801 | **27.8** | 27.5 | – | – | – | – | – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||
| IMC/ABC | 25 Jan–12 Feb 2010 | 1,600 | 31.7 | **32.4** | 3.5 | 1.9 | – | 25.4 | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||||||
| CADPEA/UGR | 7–29 Jan 2010 | 3,200 | **24.7** | 24.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 21.6 | 14.0 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Nexo/CEPES–A | 20–28 Jan 2010 | 1,207 | 22.2 | **26.3** | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 23.4 | 10.0 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 1–30 Nov 2009 | 3,645 | **28.7** | **28.7** | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 21.8 | 8.1 | Tie | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 23 Sep–2 Oct 2009 | 1,002 | 26.3 | **28.1** | – | – | – | – | – | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||
| CADPEA/UGR | 9 Jun–9 Jul 2009 | 3,200 | **26.9** | 22.6 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 24.1 | 13.1 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 28 Jun 2009 | 1,003 | **29.9** | 26.5 | – | – | – | – | – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
| **2009 EP election** | 7 Jun 2009 | **20.3** | 16.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 57.6 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 29 Jan–11 Feb 2009 | 1,000 | **29.9** | 25.4 | – | – | – | – | – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
| CADPEA/UGR | 14 Nov–12 Dec 2008 | 3,200 | **31.9** | 21.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 23.5 | 11.6 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2008 | 3,658 | **32.0** | 27.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | – | 22.8 | 6.9 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 20 Sep–2 Oct 2008 | 1,007 | **27.7** | 24.9 | – | – | – | – | – | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||
| CADPEA/UGR | 2 Jun–4 Jul 2008 | 3,200 | **28.2** | 23.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 21.3 | 11.1 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||
| **[2008 regional election](2008-andalusian-regional-election)** | 9 Mar 2008 | **35.3** | 28.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 26.4 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.0 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | [[File:Logo PSOE-A.svg | 25px | link=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia | PSOE–A]] | [[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2008-2015).svg | 28px | link=People's Party of Andalusia | PP]] | IULV | [[File:PA logo.svg | 25px | link=Andalusian Party | PA]] | [[File:Logo de UPyD.png | 27px | link=Union, Progress and Democracy | UPyD]] | Other/ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | Lead | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};" | People's Party of Andalusia}};" | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};" | Andalusian Party}};" | Union, Progress and Democracy}};" | ||||||||||||||
| Opinión 2000/Cadena SER | 12–13 Mar 2012 | 800 | 30.9 | **38.4** | 6.5 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 12.1 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.5 | |||||||||
| CIS | 15–27 Feb 2012 | 3,139 | **33.6** | 28.3 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 22.8 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 5.3 | |||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 26 Sep–21 Oct 2011 | 3,682 | 26.8 | **35.0** | 6.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 23.8 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.2 | |||||||||
| Metroscopia/El País | 21–22 Feb 2011 | 804 | 36.0 | **49.0** | – | – | – | 15.0 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 13.0 | ||||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 18 Oct–18 Nov 2010 | 3,655 | 25.8 | **35.0** | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 27.4 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.2 | |||||||||
| GESPA/PP | 20–26 Sep 2010 | 1,111 | 27.6 | **33.4** | 6.8 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 26.9 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 5.8 | |||||||||
| CADPEA/UGR | 7 Jun–6 Jul 2010 | 3,200 | **28.8** | 28.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 27.3 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 0.5 | |||||||||
| Metroscopia/El País | 15–18 Feb 2010 | 804 | 37.0 | **42.0** | – | – | – | 21.0 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 5.0 | ||||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 1–30 Nov 2009 | 3,645 | 31.0 | **31.2** | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 24.5 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Metroscopia/El País | 10–12 Feb 2009 | 800 | **43.0** | 42.0 | – | – | – | 15.0 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 1.0 | ||||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2008 | 3,658 | **35.0** | 29.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | – | 26.1 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 5.3 |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | [[File:Logo PSOE-A.svg | 25px | link=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia | PSOE–A]] | [[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2008-2015).svg | 28px | link=People's Party of Andalusia | PP]] | IULV | [[File:PA logo.svg | 25px | link=Andalusian Party | PA]] | [[File:Logo de UPyD.png | 27px | link=Union, Progress and Democracy | UPyD]] | Other/ | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | Lead | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};" | People's Party of Andalusia}};" | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};" | Andalusian Party}};" | Union, Progress and Democracy}};" | ||||||||||||||||||
| GAD3 | 19 Mar 2012 | ? | 22.0 | **63.0** | – | – | – | 15.0 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 41.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Opinión 2000/Cadena SER | 12–13 Mar 2012 | 800 | 12.9 | **65.4** | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 20.3 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 52.5 | |||||||||||||
| IMC/ABC | 7–12 Mar 2012 | 1,000 | 20.0 | **62.9** | – | – | – | 0.6 | 16.5 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 42.9 | |||||||||||||
| title=Susana Díaz adelanta al PP en un clima de deterioro del bipartidismo | url=http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/Susana-Diaz-PP-deterioro-bipartidismo_0_784422071.html | language=es | work=Diario de Sevilla | date=28 February 2014 | access-date=26 January 2017 | archive-date=2 February 2017 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170202060724/http://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/Susana-Diaz-PP-deterioro-bipartidismo_0_784422071.html | url-status=live }} | 13–29 Feb 2012 | 1,001 | 18.5 | **57.7** | – | – | – | 23.8 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 39.2 | ||||||
| CIS | 15–27 Feb 2012 | 3,139 | 18.9 | **57.0** | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 22.8 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 38.1 | |||||||||||||
| GESPA/PP | 6–22 Feb 2012 | 2,000 | 19.7 | **61.8** | – | – | – | 0.4 | 18.2 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 42.1 | |||||||||||||
| IMC/ABC | 16–24 Jan 2012 | 1,500 | 19.4 | **64.6** | – | – | – | 16.0 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 45.2 | ||||||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 18–24 Oct 2011 | 501 | 19.8 | **58.5** | 0.2 | 0.0 | – | 0.0 | 21.6 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 38.7 | |||||||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 26 Sep–21 Oct 2011 | 3,682 | 16.9 | **61.7** | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 20.1 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 44.8 | |||||||||||||
| title=Probabilidad de que gane el PP las próximas elecciones andaluzas | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2011/02/28/039.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=28 February 2011}} | 10–20 Feb 2011 | 1,600 | 37.9 | **47.2** | – | – | – | 14.9 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.3 | ||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 9–16 Feb 2011 | 500 | 36.8 | **40.0** | 0.4 | 0.0 | – | 0.2 | 22.6 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 3.2 | |||||||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 18 Oct–18 Nov 2010 | 3,655 | **35.5** | 34.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 28.3 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 21–27 Oct 2010 | 502 | **49.4** | 31.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | – | 0.0 | 18.9 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 18.1 | |||||||||||||
| CADPEA/UGR | 7 Jun–6 Jul 2010 | 3,200 | **54.9** | 26.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 17.2 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 28.0 | |||||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 10–15 Jun 2010 | 806 | **43.6** | 35.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | – | 0.2 | 19.8 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 7.9 | |||||||||||||
| title=Para salir de la crisis | url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2010/06/21/037.html | language=es | work=ABC | date=21 June 2010}} | 8–12 Jun 2010 | 817 | 40.0 | **41.6** | – | – | – | 18.4 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 1.6 | ||||||||||
| Commentia/Grupo Joly | 9–15 Feb 2010 | 801 | **46.3** | 32.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | 0.1 | 20.7 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 13.7 | |||||||||||||
| IMC/ABC | 25 Jan–12 Feb 2010 | 1,600 | **52.6** | 32.0 | – | – | – | 15.4 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 20.6 | ||||||||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 1–30 Nov 2009 | 3,645 | **52.1** | 20.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 25.9 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 31.6 | |||||||||||||
| IMC/ABC | 5–9 Feb 2009 | 1,600 | **72.9** | 9.8 | – | – | – | 0.6 | 16.7 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 63.1 | |||||||||||||
| IESA/CSIC | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2008 | 3,658 | **62.8** | 12.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | – | 23.3 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 50.0 |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | [[File:José Antonio Griñán 2012 (cropped)-2.jpg | 50px]] | [[File:Javier Arenas (cropped).jpg | 50px]] | [[File:Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg | 50px]] | [[File:Portrait placeholder.svg | 50px]] | [[File:Portrait placeholder.svg | 50px]] | Other/ | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None/ | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Not | |||||||||||||||||||||
| care | Lead | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};" | People's Party of Andalusia}};" | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};" | Andalusian Party}};" | Union, Progress and Democracy}};" | Griñán | ||||||||||||||
| PSOE–A | Arenas | ||||||||||||||||||||
| PP | Valderas | ||||||||||||||||||||
| IULV | González | ||||||||||||||||||||
| PA | Herrán | ||||||||||||||||||||
| UPyD | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Metroscopia/El País | 6–15 Mar 2012 | 1,200 | 34.0 | **42.0** | – | – | – | 24.0 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.0 | |||||||||||
| Opinión 2000/Cadena SER | 12–13 Mar 2012 | 800 | 30.6 | **39.3** | 6.3 | – | – | 12.9 | 11.0 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 8.7 | ||||||||||
| CIS | 15–27 Feb 2012 | 3,139 | **30.7** | 29.4 | 8.6 | – | – | 7.0 | 24.3 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 1.7 | ||||||||||
| GESPA/PP | 6–22 Feb 2012 | 2,000 | 27.4 | **36.4** | 5.7 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 8.2 | 16.7 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 9.0 | ||||||||||
| IMOP/PSOE | 4–10 Jul 2011 | 1,514 | **47.1** | 25.0 | – | – | – | 27.9 | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 22.1 |
Predicted President
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | [[File:José Antonio Griñán 2012 (cropped)-2.jpg | 50px]] | [[File:Javier Arenas (cropped).jpg | 50px]] | [[File:Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg | 50px]] | Other/ | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None/ | |||||||||||||||
| Not | |||||||||||||||
| care | Lead | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};" | People's Party of Andalusia}};" | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};" | Griñán | ||||||||||
| PSOE–A | Arenas | ||||||||||||||
| PP | Valderas | ||||||||||||||
| IULV | |||||||||||||||
| Opinión 2000/Cadena SER | 12–13 Mar 2012 | 800 | 20.1 | **60.3** | 1.4 | 0.9 | 17.4 | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 40.2 |
Voter turnout
The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day, without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).
| Province | Time | 14:00 | 18:00 | 20:00 | 2008 | 2012 | +/– | 2008 | 2012 | +/– | 2008 | 2012 | +/– |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almería | 40.32% | **29.23%** | −11.09 | 60.52% | **45.97%** | −14.55 | 74.66% | **60.51%** | −14.15 | ||||
| Cádiz | 37.19% | **25.76%** | −11.43 | 55.85% | **41.86%** | −13.99 | 68.12% | **54.29%** | −13.83 | ||||
| Córdoba | 39.91% | **31.85%** | −8.06 | 60.88% | **50.23%** | −10.65 | 76.62% | **66.50%** | −10.12 | ||||
| Granada | 39.98% | **30.86%** | −9.12 | 61.01% | **49.43%** | −11.58 | 75.89% | **65.43%** | −10.46 | ||||
| Huelva | 36.24% | **27.02%** | −9.22 | 55.62% | **44.13%** | −11.49 | 70.40% | **60.84%** | −9.56 | ||||
| Jaén | 38.97% | **32.90%** | −6.07 | 61.25% | **52.36%** | −8.89 | 79.26% | **70.74%** | −8.52 | ||||
| Málaga | 39.93% | **28.09%** | −11.84 | 59.49% | **44.67%** | −14.82 | 72.31% | **58.05%** | −14.26 | ||||
| Seville | 36.26% | **29.97%** | −6.29 | 60.72% | **49.54%** | −11.18 | 74.38% | **64.93%** | −9.45 | ||||
| **Total** | **39.07%** | **29.30%** | **–9.77** | **59.51%** | **47.21%** | **–12.30** | **73.65%** | **62.23%** | **–11.42** | ||||
| Sources |
Results
Overall
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| People's Party of Andalusia}}" | People's Party (PP) | 1,570,833 | 40.67 | +2.22 | **50** | +3 | ||||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}" | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) | 1,527,923 | 39.56 | −8.85 | **47** | −9 | ||||
| United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}" | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) | 438,372 | 11.35 | +4.29 | **12** | +6 | ||||
| Union, Progress and Democracy}}" | Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 129,407 | 3.35 | +2.73 | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Andalusian Party}}" | Andalusian Party (PA)1 | 96,770 | 2.51 | −0.25 | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Equo}}" | Equo (Equo) | 20,383 | 0.53 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals}}" | Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 8,781 | 0.23 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Blank Seats}}" | Blank Seats (EB) | 5,660 | 0.15 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Hartos.org}}" | Hartos.org (Hartos.org) | 4,966 | 0.13 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain}}" | Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 4,119 | 0.11 | +0.05 | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| We Won't Pay this Crisis}}" | We Won't Pay this Crisis (ECNP) | 2,680 | 0.07 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Falange Española de las JONS (1976)}}" | Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) | 2,407 | 0.06 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| For a Fairer World}}" | For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 1,704 | 0.04 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Citizen Forum (Spain)}}" | Andalusian Platform–Citizen Forum (FC) | 1,634 | 0.04 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Liberal Democratic Centre}}" | Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL) | 1,406 | 0.04 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Regionalist Party for Eastern Andalusia}}" | Regionalist Party for Eastern Andalusia (PRAO) | 1,071 | 0.03 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management}}" | Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 1,040 | 0.03 | −0.03 | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Communist Unification of Spain}}" | Communist Unification of Spain (UCE) | 1,026 | 0.03 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Humanist Party (Spain)}}" | Humanist Party (PH) | 896 | 0.02 | −0.07 | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Andalusian Horticulture Party}}" | Andalusian Horticulture Party (PHAN) | 832 | 0.02 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Socialists and Republicans (Spain)}}" | Socialists and Republicans (SyR) | 787 | 0.02 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Andalusian Convergence}}" | Andalusian Convergence (CAnda) | 762 | 0.02 | −0.15 | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Spanish Alternative}}" | Spanish Alternative (AES) | 653 | 0.02 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Citizens of Democratic Centre}}" | Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD) | 643 | 0.02 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Republican Social Movement}}" | Republican Social Movement (MSR) | 628 | 0.02 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Democratic Majority (Spain)}}" | Democratic Majority (MD) | 515 | 0.01 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Family and Life Party}}" | Family and Life Party (PFyV) | 408 | 0.01 | −0.01 | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Engine and Sports Alternative}}" | Engine and Sports Alternative (AMD) | 362 | 0.01 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Andalusian Social Democratic Party}}" | Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA) | 345 | 0.01 | −0.02 | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Group and Union for the Progress of Almeria}}" | Group and Union for the Progress of Almeria (AUPAL) | 216 | 0.01 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Andalusian Nationalist People}}" | Andalusian Nationalist People (PNdeA) | 156 | 0.00 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Regionalist Call for Andalusia}}" | Regionalist Call for Andalusia (CReA) | 146 | 0.00 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Andalusian Solidary Independent Republican Party}}" | Andalusian Solidary Independent Republican Party (RISA) | 135 | 0.00 | *New* | 0 | ±0 | ||||
| Blank ballots | 35,081 | 0.91 | −0.15 | |||||||
| Total | 3,862,747 | 109 | ±0 | |||||||
| Valid votes | 3,862,747 | 99.42 | +0.05 | |||||||
| Invalid votes | 22,390 | 0.58 | −0.05 | |||||||
| Votes cast / turnout | 3,885,137 | 60.78 | −11.89 | |||||||
| Abstentions | 2,507,483 | 39.22 | +11.89 | |||||||
| Registered voters | 6,392,620 | |||||||||
| Sources | ||||||||||
| {{hidden | ta1=left | title=Footnotes: | content={{ubl | 1 Andalusian Party results are compared to Andalusian Coalition totals in the 2008 election.}}}} |
Distribution by constituency
| Constituency | PP | PSOE–A | IULV–CA | People's Party of Andalusia}}" | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}" | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}" | % | S | % | S | % | S | Sources | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almería | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 51.2 | **7** | 35.4 | **4** | 7.1 | **1** | |||||||||
| Cádiz | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 40.5 | **7** | 35.6 | **6** | 12.7 | **2** | |||||||||
| Córdoba | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 39.7 | **5** | 38.9 | **5** | 13.3 | **2** | |||||||||
| Granada | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 43.5 | **6** | 39.5 | **6** | 10.0 | **1** | |||||||||
| Huelva | 38.6 | **5** | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 43.4 | **5** | 10.9 | **1** | |||||||||
| Jaén | 41.1 | **5** | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 44.5 | **5** | 8.8 | **1** | |||||||||
| Málaga | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 43.7 | **8** | 35.3 | **7** | 12.2 | **2** | |||||||||
| Seville | 35.3 | **7** | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 43.1 | **9** | 12.2 | **2** | |||||||||
| **Total** | People's Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;" | 40.7 | **50** | 39.6 | **47** | 11.3 | **12** |
Aftermath
Government formation
On 3 May 2012, as a result of the PSOE–IU coalition agreement, José Antonio Griñán was re-elected as regional President. One IU deputy, Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo, cast an invalid vote in protest for not being able to elect a candidate of his own party.
| Ballot → | 3 May 2012 | Required majority → | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 out of 109 | |||
| {{Collapsible list | title = Yes | • PSOE–A (47) | • IULV–CA (11) |
| {{Collapsible list | title = No | • PP (50) | |
| Abstentions | |||
| Absentees | |||
| Sources |
2013 investiture
In July 2013, President Griñán announced he was resigning from his office. As regional minister Susana Díaz was the only person able to gather the required endorsements to run in the primary election that was held to elect Griñán's successor, she was unanimously proclaimed as the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Regional Government of Andalusia. As a result, on 5 September 2013 the Parliament of Andalusia elected Díaz as new regional premier.
| Ballot → | 5 September 2013 | Required majority → | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 out of 109 | |||
| {{Collapsible list | title = Yes | • PSOE–A (47) | • IULV–CA (11) |
| {{Collapsible list | title = No | • PP (48) | |
| Abstentions | |||
| {{Collapsible list | title = Absentees | • PP (2) | |
| Sources |
Notes
References
;Opinion poll sources
;Other
Bibliography
References
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