2008 Andalusian regional election

Background

With the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) regaining its absolute majority in Andalusia in the 2004 election, Manuel Chaves was able to govern alone again, after 10 years of minority government, having relied on the support of the Andalusian Party in the previous 8 years. Teófila Martínez, who had been PP candidate for President of the Regional Government of Andalusia in the previous two elections (1996 and 2000), was replaced by Javier Arenas as head of the Andalusian People's Party (PP). Arenas had been PP candidate in the 1994 and 1996 elections, but left the PP regional leadership in order to become Spain's Minister of Labor and Social Affairs in the Aznar cabinet and, later, Secretary-General of the People's Party.

Concurrently in 2004, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero from PSOE was elected as Spain's new prime minister, after unexpectedly winning the 2004 general election. This meant that, for the first time since 1996, both the regional and national governments were ruled by the same party.

Overview

Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote, nor being legally incapacitated.

The Parliament of Andalusia was entitled to a minimum of 109 seats, with the electoral law setting its size at that number. All members were elected in eight multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied in each constituency. The use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the scheduled date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 14 March 2004, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 14 March 2008. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 19 February 2008, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 13 April 2008.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 15 January 2008 with the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOJA, setting election day for 9 March and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 3 April.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Amendments to the electoral law in 2007 introduced requirements for a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Campaign

Election debates

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

;Color key:

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Voter turnout

The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day, without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Government formation

2009 investiture

On 7 April 2009, Manuel Chaves resigned as regional President in order to become Third Deputy Prime Minister in the Second Zapatero Government, being succeeded as acting officeholder by Vice President Gaspar Zarrías. On 22 April, José Antonio Griñán was elected as new President by the Parliament of Andalusia.

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

;Other

Bibliography

References

1. {{harvp. Statute. 2007
2. {{harvp. Statute. 2007
3. {{harvp. LEAn. 1986
4. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
5. {{harvp. LEAn. 1986
6. Gallagher, Michael. (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". [[Trinity College Dublin]].
7. (14 January 2008). "Decreto del Presidente 1/2008, de 14 de enero, de disolución del Parlamento de Andalucía y de convocatoria de elecciones".
8. {{harvp. LEAn. 1986
9. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
10. {{harvp. LEAn. 1986
11. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
12. {{harvp. Statute. 2007
13. {{harvp. LGAn. 2006
14. {{harvp. Statute. 2007
15. {{harvp. LEAn. 1986
16. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
17. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
18. Pedrote, Isabel. (26 February 2008). "Un plató blanco, cuatro mesas, y un posado ante las cámaras". El País.
19. (27 February 2008). "El debate de los cuatro candidatos tuvo una cuota de pantalla del 15,7%". Diario de Sevilla.
20. (2 March 2008). "Segundo asalto". Diario Sur.
21. (4 March 2008). "800.000 andaluces ven el debate". Diario de Sevilla.
22. (9 March 2008). "Avances de participación". [[Regional Government of Andalusia]].
23. (9 March 2008). "Elecciones autonómicas en Andalucía". [[El Mundo (Spain).
24. Lozano, Carles. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía (desde 1982)".
25. (1 April 2008). "Resolución de 26 de marzo de 2008, de la Junta Electoral de Andalucía, por la que se hacen públicos los resultados generales y por circunscripciones, y relación de diputados proclamados electos en las Elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía celebradas el día 9 de marzo de 2008". [[Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia]].