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2004 Andalusian regional election

Election in the Spanish region of Andalusia

Field	Value
election_name	2004 Andalusian regional election
country	Andalusia
type	parliamentary
ongoing	no
previous_election	2000 Andalusian regional election
previous_year	2000
next_election	2008 Andalusian regional election
next_year	2008
seats_for_election	All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
majority_seats	55
opinion_polls	#Opinion polls
registered	6,052,012 2.3%
turnout	4,518,545 (74.7%)
6.0 pp
election_date	14 March 2004
image1	[[File:Manuel Chaves 2010 (cropped).jpg	170x170px]]
leader1	Manuel Chaves
party1	PSOE–A
leader_since1	19 April 1990
leaders_seat1	Cádiz
last_election1	52 seats, 44.3%
seats1	61
seat_change1	9
popular_vote1	2,260,545
percentage1	50.4%
swing1	6.1 pp
image2	[[File:Teófila Martínez 2010 (cropped).jpg	170x170px]]
leader2	Teófila Martínez
party2	People's Party of Andalusia
leader_since2	20 February 1999
leaders_seat2	Cádiz
last_election2	46 seats, 38.0%
seats2	37
seat_change2	9
popular_vote2	1,426,774
percentage2	31.8%
swing2	6.2 pp
image3	[[File:Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg	170x170px]]
leader3	Diego Valderas
party3	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia
leader_since3	10 October 2000
leaders_seat3	Huelva
last_election3	6 seats, 8.1%
seats3	6
seat_change3	0
popular_vote3	337,030
percentage3	7.5%
swing3	0.6 pp
image4	[[File:Portrait placeholder.svg	170x170px]]
leader4	Antonio Ortega
party4	Andalusian Party
leader_since4	19 October 1996
leaders_seat4	Seville
last_election4	5 seats, 7.4%
seats4	5
seat_change4	0
popular_vote4	276,674
percentage4	6.2%
swing4	1.2 pp
map_image	AndalusiaProvinceMapParliament2004.png
map_size	375px
map_caption	Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
title	President
before_election	Manuel Chaves
before_party	PSOE–A
after_election	Manuel Chaves
after_party	PSOE–A

6.0 pp

A regional election was held in Andalusia on Sunday, 14 March 2004, to elect the 7th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with the 2004 Spanish general election.

As happened with the concurrent nationwide election, results in Andalusia were heavily influenced by political controversy derived from the 11 March train bombings in Madrid. The ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) exceeded all opinion poll expectations by securing a comfortable majority. Incumbent Manuel Chaves was thus able to be re-elected for a fifth consecutive term as President of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other).

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats	Constituencies
18	Seville
16	Málaga
15	Cádiz
13	Córdoba, Granada
12	Jaén
11	Almería, Huelva

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. Election day was to take place between the thirtieth and the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 12 March 2000, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 12 March 2004. The election was required to take place no later than the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament on the condition that it was not held between 1 July and 31 August, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Tuesday, 11 May 2004.

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy	Parties and
alliances	Leading candidate	Ideology	Previous result	Gov.	Ref.	Vote %	Seats
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}"		PSOE–A	{{Collapsible list	title = List	bullets = on	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)	[[File:Manuel Chaves 2010 (cropped).jpg	50px]]	Manuel Chaves	Social democracy
People's Party of Andalusia}}"		PP	{{Collapsible list	title = List	bullets = on	People's Party (PP)	[[File:Teófila Martínez 2010 (cropped).jpg	50px]]	Teófila Martínez	Conservatism
Christian democracy
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}"		IULV–CA	{{Collapsible list	title = List	bullets = on	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)	[[File:Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg	50px]]	Diego Valderas	Socialism
Communism
Andalusian Party}}"		PA	{{Collapsible list	title = List	bullets = on	Andalusian Party (PA)	Andalusian Forum (FA)	Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA)	[[File:Portrait placeholder.svg	50px]]

Campaign

Election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	Present Surrogate
Not invited Invited Absent invitee	PSOE–A	PP	IULV–CA	PA	Audience	Ref.	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};"	People's Party of Andalusia}};"	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};"	Andalusian Party}};"
4 March	Canal Sur	Manuel Campo Vidal					17.9%
(552,000)

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

;Color key:

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout	[[File:Logo PSOE-A.svg	25px	link=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia	PSOE–A]]	[[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2000-2007).svg	33px	link=People's Party of Andalusia	PP]]	IULV	[[File:PA logo.svg	25px	link=Andalusian Party	PA]]	[[File:PSA logo (2001-2011).png	25px	link=Socialist Party of Andalusia (2001)
2004 regional election	14 Mar 2004		74.7		50.4
31.8
7.5
6.2
0.9
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	18.6
title=El PP puede perder de tres a seis diputados	url=http://www.estupidafregona.net/foro/viewtopic.php?p=51897&sid=ed49011eb8befae62a381a1965a8c96d#p51897	language=es	website=estupidafregona.net	date=14 March 2004}}	14 Mar 2004	?	?		48.2
34.4
7.1
6.5
–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	13.8
title=Elecciones Generales y de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía. Sondeo de Ipsos-EcoConsulting para RTVE - Domingo 14 de Marzo	url=http://www.rtve.es/sondeo04/index.htm	language=es	work=RTVE	date=14 March 2004	url-status=bot: unknown	archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20040326033514/http://www.rtve.es/sondeo04/index.htm	archive-date=26 March 2004 }}	14 Mar 2004	?	?		47.5
32.8
8.8
6.6
–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	14.7
title=Rojas Marcos llama a "tirarse a la calle" si el PSOE logra la mayoría absoluta	url=https://elpais.com/diario/2004/03/07/andalucia/1078615328_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=7 March 2004}}	27 Feb–3 Mar 2004	?	?		?
?
?
?
?
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	?
title=El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía	url=http://www.elperiodicodearagon.com/noticias/temadia/psoe-roza-la-mayoria-absoluta-andalucia_104831.html	language=es	work=El Periódico de Aragón	date=29 February 2004}}	29 Feb 2004	?	?		44.0
37.5
7.2
5.7
–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	6.5
title=El PSOE recuperará en el Parlamento andaluz la mayoría absoluta que perdió en 1994	url=https://elpais.com/diario/2004/03/08/espana/1078700401_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=8 March 2004}}	26–27 Feb 2004	1,500	?		47.0
36.5
7.0
6.0
–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	10.5
title=El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía y podría gobernar con el apoyo del PA o IU	url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2004/02/28/012.html	language=es	work=ABC	date=28 February 2004}}	12–20 Feb 2004	3,613	67–68		47.1
36.7
6.9
7.3
–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	10.4
title=Preelectoral elecciones generales y autonómicas de Andalucía, 2004 (Estudio nº 2555. Enero-Febrero 2004)	url=http://www.cis.es/cis/export/sites/default/-Archivos/Marginales/2540_2559/2555/Es2555mar.pdf	language=es	work=CIS	date=4 March 2004}}	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	4,147	75.2		47.1
36.1
8.1
6.8
0.2
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	11.0
title=Un sondeo del PP lo sitúa a 2,2 puntos del PSOE en las elecciones	url=http://elpais.com/diario/2004/02/14/andalucia/1076714534_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=14 February 2004}}	14 Feb 2004	?	?		42.0
39.8
?
?
?
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	2.2
title=Una encuesta del PP prevé un empate a escaños con los socialistas en Andalucía	url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2004/02/20/047.html	language=es	work=ABC	date=20 February 2004}}	2–7 Feb 2004	3,200	?		45.5
37.5
7.5
6.0
0.5
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	8.0
title=Chaves roza de nuevo la mayoría absoluta que perdió en 1994	url=http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2004/02/09/espana/1076303175.html	language=es	work=El Mundo	date=9 February 2004}}	2–5 Feb 2004	2,500	?		44.9
37.7
7.4
5.6
–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	7.2
title=El PSOE mantiene su ventaja de ocho puntos sobre el PP para las elecciones autonómicas	url=https://elpais.com/diario/2004/01/31/andalucia/1075504924_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=31 January 2004}}	3–23 Dec 2003	3,200	72.6		45.2	37.1	7.8	6.7	0.8	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	8.1
title=Dos sondeos dan al PSOE el mejor resultado en las autonómicas	url=https://elpais.com/diario/2003/11/24/andalucia/1069629725_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=24 November 2003}}	24 Nov 2003	?	?		?
?
?
?
?
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	?
title=Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2003 (Enero, 2004)	url=http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/031220135.pdf	language=es	work=IESA	date=19 January 2004}}	1–21 Nov 2003	3,700	70		46.7	37.2	8.0	7.4	0.3	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	9.5
title=Un sondeo del PP le otorga los mismos escaños que al PSOE en las autonómicas	url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2003/10/31/041.html	language=es	work=ABC	date=31 October 2003}}	22 Sep–2 Oct 2003	3,000	?		42.8
39.5
8.5
5.5
0.6
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	3.3
title=El PSOE superaría en 8 puntos al PP si las autonómicas fuesen hoy	url=http://www.diariocordoba.com/noticias/cordobaandalucia/psoe-superaria-8-puntos-pp-si-autonomicas-fuesen-hoy_81642.html	language=es	work=Diario Córdoba	date=30 September 2003}}	1–19 Jul 2003	3,200	74.2		45.1	37.3	8.2	6.6	0.8	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	7.8
2003 local elections	25 May 2003		65.6		38.2	30.9	12.8	8.8	1.5	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	7.3
title=Tres sondeos coinciden en la mayoría absoluta del PSOE	url=http://www.diariocordoba.com/noticias/cordobaandalucia/tres-sondeos-coinciden-mayoria-absoluta-psoe_44224.html	language=es	work=Diario Córdoba	date=1 March 2003}}	28 Feb 2003	?	?		47.9	34.7	7.7	8.2	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	13.2
title=El PSOE abre una brecha de 20 puntos con el PP en Andalucía	url=http://elpais.com/diario/2003/02/28/espana/1046386816_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=28 February 2003}}	18–19 Feb 2003	1,200	?		50.5	30.0	9.5	7.5	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	20.5
title=El PSOE ganaría por mayoría absoluta y el PP sufriría un retroceso en las autonómicas	url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2003/02/28/044.html	language=es	work=ABC	date=28 February 2003}}	14–17 Feb 2003	1,000	?		49.8	33.7	7.5	6.1	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	16.1
title=Una encuesta del PP sitúa a su partido a sólo 3,4 puntos de los socialistas	url=http://elpais.com/diario/2003/02/26/andalucia/1046215338_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=26 February 2003}}	3–12 Feb 2003	2,500	?		43.2
39.8
6.9
6.6
1.1
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	3.4
title=El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en las elecciones autonómicas	url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2003/02/01/047.html	language=es	work=ABC	date=1 February 2003}}	31 Jan 2003	3,500	?		46.9	34.9	7.7	7.8	0.4	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	12.0
title=Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2002 (Diciembre, 2002)	url=http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/031220136.pdf	language=es	work=IESA	date=21 February 2003	access-date=19 March 2015	archive-date=2 April 2015	archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150402155229/http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/031220136.pdf	url-status=dead }}	15 Nov–10 Dec 2002	3,884	70		47.9	35.2	7.5	7.1	0.5	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	12.7
title=Un estudio electoral da al PSOE 12,5 puntos de ventaja sobre el PP	url=https://elpais.com/diario/2002/11/10/andalucia/1036884123_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=10 November 2002}}	10 Nov 2002	431	?		51.6	39.1	7.6	1.7	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	12.5
title=Instituciones y autonomías, II. CA de Andalucía (Estudio nº 2455. Septiembre-Octubre 2002)	url=http://www.cis.es/cis/export/sites/default/-Archivos/Marginales/2440_2459/2455/e245510.html	language=es	work=CIS	date=19 November 2002}}	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	982	70.9		45.0	37.2	7.1	8.2	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	7.8
title=El PSOE, satisfecho por su primer puesto en los sondeos y el PP, por acortar distancia	url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2002/03/01/044.html	language=es	work=ABC	date=1 March 2002}}	28 Feb 2002	?	?		45.0	40.7	6.8	5.0	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	4.3
title=Un sondeo del PP augura un empate a escaños con el PSOE en Andalucía	url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/2002/02/28/024.html	language=es	work=ABC	date=28 February 2002}}	28 Feb 2002	?	?		41.9
40.6
7.4
5.7
2.6
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	1.3
title=El PSOE aventaja en 12,3 puntos al PP en intención directa de voto en Andalucía	url=http://elpais.com/diario/2002/02/28/espana/1014850812_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=28 February 2002}}	18–19 Feb 2002	1,200	?		47.3	35.0	7.3	7.8	0.5	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	12.3
title=Un sondeo del PSOE andaluz señala una ventaja de 10 puntos sobre el PP en intención de voto	url=http://elpais.com/diario/2002/02/09/andalucia/1013210530_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=9 February 2002}}	31 Jan–5 Feb 2002	1,200	?		45.7	35.5	8.6	7.9	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	10.2
title=Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2001 (Noviembre-Diciembre, 2001)	url=http://www.iesa.csic.es/publicaciones/031220137.pdf	language=es	work=IESA	date=22 February 2002}}	15 Nov–10 Dec 2001	3,696	?		46.8	35.8	8.9	7.1	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	11.0
title=Una encuesta de la CEA refleja la pérdida de dos escaños del PSOE en Sevilla y Huelva	url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2001/11/21/053.html	language=es	work=ABC	date=21 November 2001}}	15–27 Oct 2001	3,200	?		44.2
39.5
7.4
6.9
–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	4.7
title=El PSOE dice que aventaja al PP en 16,8 puntos, según su encuesta	url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/sevilla/abc.sevilla/2001/07/01/060.html	language=es	work=ABC	date=1 July 2001}}	7–15 Jun 2001	2,045	?		50.9	34.1	–	–	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	16.8
title=Mayoría absoluta para el PSOE en Andalucía, según un sondeo de Sigma 2 para ABC	url=https://www.abc.es/hemeroteca/historico-28-02-2003/abc/Nacional/mayoria-absoluta-para-el-psoe-en-andalucia-segun-un-sondeo-de-sigma-2-para-abc_164967.html	language=es	work=ABC	date=28 February 2003}}	28 Feb 2001	?	?		43.2	40.3	7.1	7.4	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	2.9
title=El PSOE saca 11 puntos de ventaja al PP, según un sondeo del IESA	url=http://elpais.com/diario/2001/02/25/andalucia/983056932_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=25 February 2001}}	10 Nov–5 Dec 2000	3,645	?		46.6	35.7	9.4	7.8	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	10.9
[2000 regional election](2000-andalusian-regional-election)	12 Mar 2000		68.7		44.3
38.0
8.1
7.4
–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	6.3

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	[[File:Logo PSOE-A.svg	25px	link=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia	PSOE–A]]	[[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2000-2007).svg	33px	link=People's Party of Andalusia	PP]]	IULV	[[File:PA logo.svg	25px	link=Andalusian Party	PA]]	[[File:PSA logo (2001-2011).png
2004 regional election	14 Mar 2004			37.9	24.0	5.7	4.7	0.7		24.2	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	13.9
CIS	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	4,147		37.8	17.6	5.1	3.2	0.1	28.6	5.9	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	20.2
CADPEA/UGR	3–23 Dec 2003	3,200		36.6	18.8	–	–	–	32.3	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	17.8
IESA/CSIC	1–21 Nov 2003	3,700		32.3	24.9	6.0	5.2	–	22.8	6.5	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	7.4
Idea Asesores/PP	3–12 Feb 2003	2,500		25.3	22.3	4.1	4.9	0.3	35.0	8.1	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	3.0
IESA/CSIC	15 Nov–10 Dec 2002	3,884		35.3	22.2	5.1	4.9	–	23.9	5.3	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	13.1
CIS	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	982		29.3	15.4	4.5	5.0	–	34.3	9.1	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	13.9
IESA/CSIC	15 Nov–10 Dec 2001	3,696		32.2	23.7	6.3	4.9	–	24.9	5.1	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	8.5
Opina/CEA	15–27 Oct 2001	3,200		28.2	21.0	4.2	5.2	–	–	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	7.2
title=El PSOE baja 11,5 puntos en intención de voto en Andalucía y supera sólo en uno al PP	url=https://elpais.com/diario/2001/02/28/espana/983314822_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=28 February 2001}}	15–20 Feb 2001	1,205		23.7	22.7	3.2	6.0	–	–	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	1.0
IESA/CSIC	10 Nov–5 Dec 2000	3,645		31.8	23.4	6.3	5.2	–	26.0	5.2	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	8.4
[2000 regional election](2000-andalusian-regional-election)	12 Mar 2000			30.6	26.4	5.6	5.2	–		30.2	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	4.2

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	25px	link=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia	PSOE–A]]	[[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2000-2007).svg	33px	link=People's Party of Andalusia	PP]]	IULV	[[File:PA logo.svg
None	Lead	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};"	People's Party of Andalusia}};"		United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};"		Andalusian Party}};"		Socialist Party of Andalusia (2001)}};"
Opina/El País	26–27 Feb 2004	1,500	39.2	23.5	4.3	3.6	0.3	1.4	37.7	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	15.7
CIS	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	4,147	44.4	20.4	5.5	3.5	0.2	1.2	24.8	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	24.0
Opina/El País	18–19 Feb 2003	1,200	35.8	19.0	4.2	4.8	0.2	0.8	35.2	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	16.8
Opina/El País	18–19 Feb 2002	1,200	34.5	21.3	4.3	3.4	0.3	0.6	35.7	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	13.2

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	[[File:Logo PSOE-A.svg	25px	link=Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia	PSOE–A]]	[[File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (2000-2007).svg	33px	link=People's Party of Andalusia	PP]]	IULV	[[File:PA logo.svg	25px	link=Andalusian Party	PA]]	[[File:PSA logo (2001-2011).png
None	Lead	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};"		People's Party of Andalusia}};"		United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};"		Andalusian Party}};"		Socialist Party of Andalusia (2001)}};"
Opina/El País	26–27 Feb 2004	1,500		73.6	7.5	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	18.6	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	66.1
CIS	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	4,147		72.9	5.4	0.3	0.3	–	0.1	21.0	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	67.5
title=El 65,1% cree que Chaves ganará las elecciones, frente a un 14,6% que opina que Teófila Martínez	url=https://elpais.com/diario/2003/11/15/andalucia/1068852135_850215.html	language=es	work=El País	date=15 November 2003}}	20 Oct–7 Nov 2003	1,200		65.1	14.6	–	–	–	1.8	18.5	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	50.5
Opina/El País	18–19 Feb 2003	1,200		63.6	5.4	0.3	0.8	0.1	0.1	29.7	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	58.2
Opina/El País	18–19 Feb 2002	1,200		53.5	11.8	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.0	33.2	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	41.7

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	50px]]	[[File:Teófila Martínez 2010 (cropped).jpg	50px]]	[[File:Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg	50px]]	[[File:Portrait placeholder.svg	50px]]	[[File:Portrait placeholder.svg	50px]]
None/
Not
care	Lead	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}};"	People's Party of Andalusia}};"		United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}};"		Andalusian Party}};"		Socialist Party of Andalusia (2001)}};"		Chaves
PSOE–A	Martínez
PP	Valderas
IULV	Ortega
PA	Pacheco
PSA
Vox Pública/Diario Córdoba	29 Feb 2004	?	45.8	22.1	–	–	–	–	–	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	23.7
Opina/El País	26–27 Feb 2004	1,500	38.0	22.5	3.2	3.2	–	2.2	30.9	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	15.5
CIS	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	4,147	46.7	19.1	3.3	2.0	2.2	4.1	22.7	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	27.6
Inner/PSOE	20 Oct–7 Nov 2003	1,200	55.9	32.7	–	–	–	7.9	3.5	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	23.2

Results

Overall

Parties and alliances	Popular vote	Seats	Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}"		Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)	2,260,545	50.36	+6.04	61	+9
People's Party of Andalusia}}"		People's Party (PP)	1,426,774	31.78	−6.24	37	−9
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}"		United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)	337,030	7.51	−0.60	6	±0
Andalusian Party}}"		Andalusian Party (PA)	276,674	6.16	−1.27	5	±0
Andalusian Forum}}"		Andalusian Forum (FA)	53,288	1.19	New	0	±0
Socialist Party of Andalusia (2001)}}"		Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA)	42,219	0.94	New	0	±0
Humanist Party (Spain)}}"		Humanist Party (PH)	5,670	0.13	+0.02	0	±0
New Andalusian Green Left}}"		New Andalusian Green Left (NIVA)	5,065	0.11	New	0	±0
Andalusia Assembly}}"		Andalusia Assembly (A)	4,544	0.10	−0.01	0	±0
Falange Española de las JONS (1976)}}"		Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)1	4,437	0.10	+0.07	0	±0
Party of Precarious Workers}}"		Party of Precarious Workers (PTPRE)	3,321	0.07	New	0	±0
Republican Left (Spain, 1977)}}"		Republican Left (IR)	3,130	0.07	New	0	±0
Andalusian Social Democratic Party}}"		Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA)	1,642	0.04	New	0	±0
Left Assembly–Initiative for Andalusia}}"		Left Assembly–Initiative for Andalusia (A–IZ)	1,334	0.03	New	0	±0
Another Democracy is Possible}}"		Another Democracy is Possible (ODeP)	525	0.01	New	0	±0
	National Union (UN)	523	0.01	±0.00	0	±0
Blank ballots	62,451	1.39	+0.10
Total	4,489,172		109	±0
Valid votes	4,489,172	99.35	+0.01
Invalid votes	28,658	0.65	−0.01
Votes cast / turnout	4,518,545	74.66	+5.95
Abstentions	1,533,467	25.34	−5.95
Registered voters	6,052,012
Sources
{{hidden	ta1=left	title=Footnotes:	content={{ubl	1 Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO results are compared to Independent Spanish Phalanx totals in the 2000 election.}}}}

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE–A	PP	IULV–CA	PA	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}"		People's Party of Andalusia}}"		United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia}}"
Almería	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	46.1	6	42.0	5	3.8	−	4.4	−
Cádiz	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	47.8	8	32.0	5	6.6	1	7.3	1
Córdoba	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	45.9	7	30.8	4	11.2	1	6.4	1
Granada	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	49.0	7	35.4	5	7.1	1	4.3	−
Huelva	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	52.9	7	28.8	3	7.3	−	8.0	1
Jaén	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	53.1	7	32.4	4	6.7	1	5.7	−
Málaga	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	47.5	8	34.6	6	7.6	1	6.7	1
Seville	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	55.9	11	26.2	5	7.9	1	6.1	1
Total	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia}}; color:white;"	50.4	61	31.8	37	7.5	6	6.2	5

Aftermath

Ballot →	21 April 2004	Required majority →
55 out of 109
{{Collapsible list	title = Yes	• PSOE–A (61)
{{Collapsible list	title = No	• PP (36)
{{Collapsible list	title = Abstentions	• IULV–CA (6)	• PA (5)
{{Collapsible list	title = Absentees	• PP (1)
Sources

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

;Other

References

(30 December 1981). ["[Statute of Autonomy of Andalusia".
(2 January 1986). "Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía".
Gallagher, Michael. (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin.
(21 July 1983). "Ley 6/1983, de 21 de Julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma".
(30 January 1990). "Ley 1/1990, de 30 de enero, por la que se modifica la Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma".
(18 May 1994). "Ley 6/1994, de 18 de mayo, de Modificación de la Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma, y la Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía".
(19 June 1985). "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General".
(11 February 2004). "El debate de los candidatos a la Junta andaluza será el 4 de marzo". Cadena SER.
(6 March 2004). "Los medios de comunicación dan a Teófila una ajustada victoria". ABC.
"Elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía (1982 - 2018)".
"Electoral Results Consultation. Parliament of Andalusia. March 2004. Andalusia totals". [[Regional Government of Andalusia]].
(30 March 2004). "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 14 March 2004". [[Junta Electoral Central.

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