2012 Basque regional election

Overview

Electoral system

The Basque Parliament was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari. Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Basques abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote ().

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, with each being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats in order to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces, as required under the regional statute of autonomy.

Election date

The term of the Basque Parliament expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 1 March 2009, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 1 March 2013. The election decree was required to be published in the BOPV no later than 5 February 2013, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 31 March 2013.

The lehendakari had the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament was to be dissolved and a fresh election called.

The People's Party (PP), on whose confidence and supply the López's government relied, withdrew their support in May 2012 claiming "difficulties in finding meeting points" with the Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE), leaving López in a clear minority. While initially intending to reach the end of the legislature, mounting pressure from both the PP and the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) led López to announce on 21 August that he would be dissolving parliament and call a snap election for 21 October 2012 over an impossibility to keep carrying out the government's legislative agenda.

The Basque Parliament was officially dissolved on 28 August 2012 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOPV, setting the election date for 21 October.

Background

Following the 2009 regional election, Patxi López of the PSE–EE became lehendakari through a confidence and supply agreement with the PP, bringing an end to 30 years of uninterrupted rule by the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and sending the party to opposition in the regional parliament for the first time since the Spanish transition to democracy. The local PSE–PP alliance endured the historical rivalry at the national level between the two parties, despite suffering from frequent clashes as the PP set out a series of conditions for maintaining their support, as well as a steady opposition from the PNV. In May 2012, some months after winning the 2011 Spanish general election and forming the new Spanish government, the PP terminated the alliance in retaliation to the PSOE's opposition to Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's reform agenda, prompting Patxi López to announce a snap regional election for October 2012.

On 5 September 2010, ETA declared a ceasefire at a time when it found itself militarily weakened by police action—the group had been unable to stage any attack in Spanish territory since 9 August 2009—and beleaguered by infighting, distrust in the operational capacities and reliability of its members and pressures from abertzale left groups (which were being kept politically outlawed by Spanish courts) for the band to stop the killings. On 10 January 2011, ETA proclaimed its will for the September 2010 ceasefire to be "permanent, general and verifiable" by international observers. Three days after the Donostia-San Sebastián International Peace Conference held on 17 October 2011, ETA would announce a "definitive cessation of its armed activity".

In April 2011, following the illegalization of Sortu in March—perceived as a continuation of Batasuna, the banned political branch of the ETA terrorist group—Eusko Alkartasuna (EA), Alternatiba and groups and independent individuals from the abertzale left formed a coalition named Bildu to contest the incoming 2011 local elections. Despite an early ruling by the Supreme Court on 2 May which barred Bildu from contesting, the Constitutional Court overturned the ban and allowed the coalition to run in the elections, in which it secured a major breakthrough by obtaining 25.6% and a majority of town councillors in the Basque Country. Aralar would join the coalition in late 2011 ahead of the 20 November general election under the Amaiur umbrella, which came second in the Basque Country with 24.1% of the vote, behind the PNV with 27.4%; in seats, however, Amaiur came out in top with six against the PNV's five. Subsequently, the four main groups that constituted Amaiur, namely Sortu—which would be legalized by the Constitutional Court in June 2012—EA, Alternatiba and Aralar, announced the establishment of EH Bildu as a joint electoral list ahead of the next Basque regional election, with Laura Mintegi being nominated as the alliance's candidate for lehendakari.

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

;Color key:

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred Lehendakari

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become lehendakari.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

;Other

References

1. (21 August 2012). "Patxi López convoca elecciones para que los vascos elijan un "modelo" anticrisis". [[El País]].
2. (27 August 2012). "Feijóo justifica el adelanto electoral para "no crear más inestabilidad"". El País.
3. (20 October 2011). "Basque group Eta says armed campaign is over". [[BBC News]].
4. (21 October 2012). "El PNV gana las elecciones sin mayoría y Bildu desplaza al PSE como segunda fuerza política". [[RTVE]].
5. (21 October 2012). "El PP obtiene su peor resultado en unas autonómicas desde 1990". [[eldiario.es]].
6. (21 October 2012). "El desplome del PSOE y Feijóo rescatan a Rajoy ante el reto soberanista en Euskadi". El País.
7. (22 October 2012). "Elecciones vascas 2012: El PNV gana las elecciones con 27 escaños". [[ABC (newspaper).
8. (13 December 2012). "Urkullu, elegido lehendakari". [[El Mundo (Spain).
9. (24 September 2012). "La moderación de Urkullu inquieta". El País.
10. (9 September 2016). "Íñigo Urkullu, la calma que llegó tras Ibarretxe". ABC.
11. (18 December 1979). ["[Statute of Autonomy of the Basque Country".
12. Reig Pellicer, Naiara. (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote".
13. (15 June 1990). "Ley 5/1990, de 15 de junio, de Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco".
14. (30 June 1981). "Ley 7/1981, de 30 de junio, sobre Ley de Gobierno".
15. (7 May 2012). "Crisis de Gobierno en Euskadi, el PP retira su apoyo a Patxi López". [[El Economista (Spain).
16. (20 June 2012). "Patxi López afirma que las elecciones vascas serán "cuando tocan"". RTVE.
17. (7 May 2012). "El PNV pide al lehendakari que se someta a una cuestión de confianza". [[Cadena SER]].
18. (21 August 2012). "Patxi López adelanta las elecciones vascas al 21 de octubre y critica el "torpedeo" de PP y PNV". RTVE.
19. (28 August 2012). "Decreto 12/2012, de 27 de agosto, del Lehendakari, por el que se disuelve el Parlamento Vasco y se convocan elecciones". Boletín Oficial del País Vasco.
20. (12 March 2009). "El PP entrega a Patxi López su apoyo para que presida el Gobierno vasco". [[El Confidencial]].
21. (30 March 2009). "El pacto del PSE-PP garantiza cuatro años de gobierno de Patxi López". El País.
22. (9 March 2009). "Más de 650 altos cargos temen por su puesto si el PNV sale del Gobierno vasco". El Correo.
23. (14 August 2009). "Patxi López dice que el pacto con el PP está 'blindado y aislado' de disputas". La Vanguardia.
24. (18 April 2011). "Patxi López: El pacto de Gobierno PSE-PP goza de 'estupenda' salud". El Mundo.
25. (17 May 2010). "El pacto PSE-PP estaría en peligro si el Gobierno negocia con ETA". [[EiTB]].
26. (31 May 2010). "El PNV busca reventar el pacto PSE-PP en el Ejecutivo vasco". El Periódico de Extremadura.
27. (20 May 2012). "Los desencuentros de un pacto". El País.
28. (7 May 2012). "Basagoiti da por terminado el pacto con Patxi López y pide un adelanto electoral en Euskadi". RTVE.
29. (6 September 2010). "ETA proclama otro alto el fuego". El País.
30. (6 September 2010). "ETA decreta el alto el fuego presionada, acorralada y dividida". El País.
31. (6 September 2010). "Gobierno y partidos ven "insuficiente" el anuncio de alto el fuego de ETA". El País.
32. (10 January 2011). "ETA anuncia un alto el fuego "permanente, general y verificable"". El País.
33. (27 March 2011). "ETA se muestra dispuesta a una verificación "informal" de su tregua". El País.
34. (20 October 2011). "ETA pone fin a 43 años de terror". El País.
35. (8 March 2011). "Cronología del proceso de la ilegalización de Sortu". El País.
36. (23 March 2011). "El Supremo acuerda ilegalizar Sortu por solo dos votos de diferencia". El País.
37. (26 March 2011). "Sortu intenta burlar la ilegalización con una coalición llamada Bildu". El País.
38. (2 May 2011). "El Tribunal Supremo deja a Bildu fuera de las elecciones". [[La Vanguardia]].
39. (5 May 2011). "El Constitucional da vía libre a Bildu para acudir a las elecciones". El País.
40. (23 May 2011). "Bildu, segunda fuerza política del País Vasco". El Mundo.
41. (22 May 2011). "Bildu, primera fuerza política del País Vasco en número de concejales". Cadena SER.
42. (2 October 2011). "La izquierda abertzale presenta su nueva marca, Amaiur, para las elecciones generales". RTVE.
43. (21 November 2011). "Amaiur logra siete escaños y el PNV pierde uno pero se mantiene como fuerza vasca más votada". RTVE.
44. (20 June 2012). "El Tribunal Constitucional legaliza Sortu y le impone límites frente a las víctimas". El País.
45. (10 June 2012). "La nueva marca electoral de los soberanistas vascos es EHBildu". El País.
46. (2 July 2012). "Laura Mintegi será la candidata a lehendakari de la coalición Euskal Herria Bildu". La Vanguardia.
47. "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco / Eusko Legebilitzarra (desde 1980)".
48. "Parliamentarios y Órganos. Grupos. Composición. Históricos - IX Legislatura".
49. (19 June 1985). "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General".
50. (5 July 2012). "Urkullu tras ser elegido candidato a lehendakari: 'Euskadi pide cambio'". El Mundo.
51. (2 September 2012). "Patxi López afirma que se presenta 'para ganar'". EiTB.
52. (12 May 2012). "Basagoiti es reelegido presidente del PP vasco con un 92,5% de los votos". La Vanguardia.
53. (7 September 2012). "La abogada santurtziarra Raquel Modubar será la candidata a lehendakari de EB". El Mundo.
54. (1 July 2012). "UPyD elige a Gorka Maneiro como candidato a lehendakari". El Correo.
55. (31 March 2012). "Izquierda Unida acuerda que Ezker Anitza sea su 'único referente' en Euskadi". El Mundo.
56. (7 September 2012). "Lara (IU) respalda a Mikel Arana (Ezker Anitza) como candidato a lehendakari". eldiario.es.
57. (2 October 2012). "Mikel Arana, líder de Ezker Anitza-IU, impulsa una nueva etapa más allá de la escisión de EB". RTVE.
58. "Election Results Archive". Basque Government.