2009 Basque regional election

Overview

Electoral system

The Basque Parliament was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari. Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, with each being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats in order to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces, as required under the regional statute of autonomy.

Election date

The term of the Basque Parliament expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 17 April 2005, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 17 April 2009. The election decree was required to be published in the BOPV no later than 24 March 2009, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 17 May 2009.

The lehendakari had the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament was to be dissolved and a fresh election called.

Lehendakari Ibarretxe had been scheduled to announce a snap election for autumn 2008 following his expected failure in holding a proposed referendum on the Basque Country's political status for 25 October 2008, which was averted by the Spanish government. The electoral defeat of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) in the 2008 Spanish general election in the region and internal opposition from the PNV leadership to an immediate election delayed the scheduled snap vote to early 2009. Finally on 3 January 2009, Ibarretxe took advantage of Galician president Emilio Pérez Touriño's previous announcement of a Galician election for 1 March to call the Basque election simultaneously, a move which was interpreted by the media and by political parties as intending to caught his political rivals by surprise (particularly, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the People's Party (PP), by forcing them to run two simultaneous election campaigns).

The Basque Parliament was officially dissolved on 6 January 2009 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOPV, setting the election date for 1 March.

Background

The Ibarretxe Plan, a major proposal by Lehendakari Juan José Ibarretxe to reform the 1979 Basque Statute of Autonomy and turn the region into an associated state to Spain as a way to ending the ongoing conflict with the paramilitary ETA group, was brought to a standstill following its parliamentary defeat in a vote in the Congress of Deputies on 1 February 2005 and the subsequent electoral setback of Ibarretxe's coalition in the April 2005 regional election. On 22 March 2006, ETA declared a "permanent ceasefire" to allow for a peace process to ensue with the Spanish government under then-Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, but peace talks terminated as a result of the 2006 Madrid–Barajas Airport bombing on 30 December.

Later into the legislature on 28 September 2007, Ibarretxe attempted to revive his statute reform plan by announcing a new "right to decide roadmap" which provided for a referendum on the proposal being held by 25 October 2008, whether it was in agreement with the Spanish government or without it. The law establishing the legal framework allowing the Basque government to hold the vote was approved by the Basque Parliament in June 2008, but was subsequently suspended and overturned by the Constitutional Court, which ended up ruling that the law and the proposed referendum were unconstitutional.

On 31 August 2006, the leadership of Eusko Alkartasuna (EA) had voted for terminating their electoral alliance with the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) ahead of the 2007 foral and local elections, after seven years of collaboration; on 10 November 2008, the decision was made irreversible after EA announced its maintainment ahead of the incoming 2009 regional election. The 2007 elections had seen strong gains for the Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE) and a decline for the parties supporting Ibarretxe's government, PNV, EA and Ezker Batua (EB), a situation confirmed one year later in the 2008 Spanish general election in the region as the PSE–EE emerged as the most voted party with 38.1% and 9 out of 18 Congress seats.

Concurrently, and in application of the 2002 Law of Political Parties—which allowed the outlawing of parties "whose activity violates democratic principles, particularly when it seeks to deteriorate or destroy the regime of freedoms or prevent or eliminate the democratic system by promoting, justifying or exculpating attacks on the life or integrity of people, legitimizing violence as a method to achieve political objectives or politically supporting the action of terrorist organizations to achieve their purposes of subverting the constitutional order"—the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Court barred several parties from contesting elections because of their reported ties to ETA and the outlawed Batasuna party; namely, the Communist Party of the Basque Homelands (PCTV/EHAK), Basque Nationalist Action (ANV), several groupings created specifically to contest the 2007 local elections (such as Abertzale Sozialisten Batasuna and Abertzale Sozialistak) or the 2009 regional election (Demokrazia Hiru Milioi and Askatasuna).

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

;Color key:

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred Lehendakari

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become lehendakari.

Predicted Lehendakari

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become lehendakari.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Invalid votes

After Demokrazia Hiru Milioi (D3M) and Askatasuna ("Freedom") were outlawed in February 2009, Basque separatists were asked to cast their vote for D3M, whose ballots would be counted as invalid. According to some sources, the pro-independence Basque left (that were formerly represented by Batasuna and later by EHAK) was surprised by the lower support of their void option. If the void votes are to be counted as the support of this option, it would have obtained the worst results in their history, having received 100,924 void votes, 50,000 less than in the previous regional election and less than half their historical top in the 1998 election.

Major electoral analysis has been performed on the results and the issue of the void votes by pro-Basque nationalist and non-Basque nationalist parties alike. It is a frequent misunderstanding that, had the votes for the illegal lists been counted as valid, they would have been entitled to seven seats. Actually, taking into account that the average of "normal" void votes (struck-out names, double-voting, etc.) in the last three Basque regional elections (1998, 2001 and 2005) was about 0.4%, and assuming that all the void votes that could not be accounted for by that statistic alone were cast for a hypothetical unitary abertzale list (instead of for two different lists, Askatasuna and D3M), those ~97,000 votes would have accounted for at most 6 seats.

Government formation

The election results saw the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) of Lehendakari Juan José Ibarretxe securing a clear victory with 38.1% of the vote and 30 seats, but it came at the expense of Ibarretxe's erstwhile allies, Eusko Alkartasuna (EA) and Ezker Batua (EB). Together with Aralar, which had seen a remarkable rise of support in absence of electoral competition from other abertzale left parties—a result of their illegalization because of their ties with ETA and Batasuna—the parties in support of Ibarretxe could only muster 36 out of the 75 seats in the Basque Parliament, against 39 of the combined totals for the Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE), the People's Party (PP) and Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), meaning that for the first time since 1979 the possibility existed for a non-PNV lehendakari to be appointed. Upon learning of the results, PP regional leader Antonio Basagoiti proclaimed his satisfaction and announced his support for Socialist Patxi López as new lehendakari, who had previously announced that he felt "legitimated to lead the change" and would be running for investiture.

As the PNV–EA–EB alliance—in government since 2001—was no longer workable, the PNV attempted to figure out a coalition agreement with the PSE to remain in power, mirroring the historical collaboration that the two parties had maintained from 1986 to 1998, and hinting at withdrawing PNV's support to Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero's government in the Cortes Generales if the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) did not back their plan. The PSE rejected supporting a new PNV administration even if Ibarretxe was replaced with a different candidate, conditioning any agreement on Patxi López becoming lehendakari, which the PNV refused. Instead, the PSE proposed the formation of a minority cabinet led by López that could be supported by the PP, ruling out a full-fledged coalition. Concurrently, the PSOE's national leadership supported López's bid and defended the PSE's autonomy to agree on any pact that their local branch deemed fit, despite the PNV's threat of withdrawing their support nationally.

Seeking to provide the new government of parliamentary stability, the PSE and the PP—which had been and still were arch-rivals at the national level—reached an unprecedented confidence and supply agreement on 30 March that would see the Basque nationalists ousted from power after 30 years of uninterrupted government. The PNV, which had dubbed any such agreement as "legitimate" but as a "fraud to the electorate" and an "act of political aggression", announced a "harsh" opposition to López's government and vowed to put forth Ibarretxe as their candidate in the investiture session, citing their "right" to head the government as the top-voted party. As part of their agreement, the PSE would support PP's Arantza Quiroga as new president of the Basque Parliament and treat the PP as their "preferred" parliamentary partner, whereas the PP would refrain from moving or supporting any vote of no confidence on the new cabinet.

López was elected as new lehendakari on a 39–35 vote in the investiture session held on 5 May 2009, garnering the additional support of the sole legislator from Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), and was sworn in two days later. Simultaneously, his political defeat led Ibarretxe to announce his farewell from politics altogether, a move which would allow his party to reorganize itself from opposition hands-free and, eventually, lead to the abandonment of Ibarretxe's sovereigntist plans and discourse.

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

;Other

References

1. (3 January 2009). "Ibarretxe solapa las elecciones vascas con las gallegas para debilitar a sus rivales". [[El País]].
2. (10 February 2020). "Feijóo lanza un adelanto electoral de alto riesgo frente a un PSOE fortalecido desde la Moncloa". [[La Vanguardia]].
3. (16 September 2008). "El Supremo ilegaliza ANV y acuerda su disolución". El País.
4. (18 September 2008). "El Tribunal Supremo acuerda la ilegalización del EHAK-PCTV". [[Cadena SER]].
5. (25 January 2009). "La plataforma abertzale D3M presenta sus candidaturas a las elecciones vascas". [[RTVE]].
6. (8 February 2009). "El Tribunal Supremo anula las listas de Askatasuna y D3M". [[El Mundo (Spain).
7. (13 February 2009). "El Tribunal Constitucional confirma la anulación de las listas de Askatasuna y D3M". El Mundo.
8. (22 May 2009). "Los partidos y marcas de la izquierda abertzale ilegalizadas y la fecha en la que dictó la resolución el TC". [[Público (Spain).
9. (14 February 2009). "La izquierda 'abertzale' votará nulo". El País.
10. (2 March 2009). "Vuelco electoral histórico en Galicia y en el País Vasco". El Mundo.
11. (1 March 2009). "El PNV gana pero los nacionalistas pierden la mayoría". El País.
12. (2 March 2009). "El Parlamento vasco tendrá, por primera vez en tres décadas, mayoría no nacionalista". RTVE.
13. (22 May 2008). "San Gil dimite como líder del PP vasco". El País.
14. (2 March 2009). "Ziarreta pierde su escaño y cae fulminado tras el gran desastre de EA". El País.
15. (2 March 2009). "El descalabro de Ezker Batua se cobra el escaño de Madrazo". El Mundo.
16. (12 March 2009). "El PP entrega a Patxi López su apoyo para que presida el Gobierno vasco". [[El Confidencial]].
17. (30 March 2009). "El pacto del PSE-PP garantiza cuatro años de gobierno de Patxi López". El País.
18. (26 March 2009). "Historia de los pactos del PSE y el PP: Juntos, pero no revueltos". RTVE.
19. (18 December 1979). ["[Statute of Autonomy of the Basque Country".
20. (15 June 1990). "Ley 5/1990, de 15 de junio, de Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco".
21. (30 June 1981). "Ley 7/1981, de 30 de junio, sobre Ley de Gobierno".
22. (26 April 2008). "Ibarretxe anticipará las elecciones si Zapatero recurre su consulta". El País.
23. (21 May 2008). "Zapatero cierra la puerta al 'plan Ibarretxe' y atisba elecciones". [[Cinco Días]].
24. (23 May 2008). "La estrategia de Ibarretxe para realizar su consulta". [[Cadena SER]].
25. (5 May 2008). "El posible adelanto electoral amenaza cuatro proyectos de ley claves del Gobierno vasco". [[El Correo]].
26. (1 September 2008). "Tiempo de descuento electoral". El País.
27. (18 December 2008). "Touriño convoca las elecciones para el 1 de marzo". [[La Voz de Galicia]].
28. (3 January 2009). "Aires de agotamiento". El País.
29. (6 January 2009). "Decreto 1/2009, de 2 de enero, del Lehendakari, por el que se disuelve el Parlamento Vasco y se convocan elecciones". Boletín Oficial del País Vasco.
30. (1 February 2005). "El Congreso rechaza de manera rotunda el 'plan Ibarretxe'". Cadena SER.
31. (18 April 2005). "Ibarretxe pierde cuatro escaños y su plan soberanista queda condenado al fracaso". El País.
32. (18 April 2005). "El fracaso del 'plan Ibarretxe'". Cinco Días.
33. (22 March 2006). "ETA declara un alto el fuego permanente". El País.
34. (2 January 2007). "Reacciones al atentado de ETA contra la T-4 del aeropuerto de Madrid Barajas". El Mundo.
35. (28 September 2007). "Ibarretxe propone una consulta en el País Vasco el 25 de octubre de 2008". El Mundo.
36. (30 September 2007). "El segundo plan Ibarretxe destinado al fracaso ante la enérgica negativa del Gobierno a negociar". [[20 minutos]].
37. (28 May 2008). "Spain to block Basque referendum on "right to decide"". [[The New York Times]].
38. (26 June 2008). "Aprobada la consulta de Ibarretxe en la Cámara vasca". El País.
39. (18 July 2008). "El Constitucional suspende la consulta de Ibarretxe". El País.
40. (11 September 2008). "El Tribunal Constitucional declara ilegal la consulta popular de Ibarretxe". El Mundo.
41. (31 August 2006). "PNV-EA: Termina una coalición de siete años". La Vanguardia.
42. (1 September 2006). "EA rompe su coalición electoral con el PNV y acudirá sola a las municipales". El País.
43. (10 November 2008). "EA 'rompe' con el PNV y concurrirá en solitario a las próximas autonómicas". 20 minutos.
44. (28 May 2007). "El PSE considera que los resultados le sitúan como una alternativa al tripartito". El País.
45. (28 May 2007). "El PSE se refuerza como alternativa". El País.
46. (10 March 2008). "El PSE se impone como fuerza más votada en el País Vasco, con una abstención del 35%". El Mundo.
47. (27 June 2002). "Ley Orgánica 6/2002, de 27 de junio, de Partidos Políticos".
48. (5 June 2002). "El Congreso da un amplísimo respaldo a la Ley de Partidos". El País.
49. (1 August 2002). "Proceso de ilegalizacion de Batasuna". El Mundo.
50. (20 June 2008). "EHAK denuncia que su proceso de ilegalización es "una farsa jurídica que responde a la decisión política del PSOE"". [[Europa Press (news agency).
51. (29 January 2009). "El Constitucional avala la ilegalización de ANV dictada por el Supremo". El País.
52. (1 April 2007). "La policía reconstruye el organigrama oculto de Batasuna para evitar su presencia electoral". El País.
53. (11 April 2008). "El Constitucional rechaza tramitar el recurso de amparo de Abertzale Sozialisten". El País.
54. (21 June 2012). "Las marcas de Batasuna". El Mundo.
55. "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco / Eusko Legebilitzarra (desde 1980)".
56. "Parliamentarios y Órganos. Grupos. Composición. Históricos - VIII Legislatura".
57. (19 June 1985). "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General".
58. (28 September 2008). "Juan José Ibarretxe se presentará de nuevo a 'lehendakari'". El País.
59. (20 December 2008). "Ibarretxe, ratificado como candidato del PNV, exige a ETA "que se vaya"". El País.
60. (16 December 2007). "Eusko Alkartasuna elige a Unai Ziarreta como nuevo presidente con el 68,5% de los votos". [[Europa Press (news agency).
61. (11 November 2008). "Ziarreta será el candidato a lehendakari de EA y la formación trabaja ya en la elaboración de las listas electorales". Europa Press.
62. (6 May 2008). "Patxi López: 'El tripartito de Ibarretxe está caducado, agotado, sin ideas ni proyecto'". El Mundo.
63. (7 May 2008). "El PSE elige a Patxi López como candidato a 'lehendakari'". El País.
64. (12 July 2008). "Antonio Basagoiti, elegido presidente del PP vasco con el 82,3% de los votos". El Mundo.
65. (24 October 2008). "El Partido Popular proclama como candidato a lehendakari a Antonio Basagoiti". El Mundo.
66. (20 December 2008). "Madrazo sale elegido candidato a lehendakari por EB con el 85% de los votos". [[Diario Vasco]].
67. "Election Results Archive". Basque Government.
68. "Archived copy".
69. Público.es: [http://www.publico.es/espana/205500/d/m/logrado/siete/escanos D3M habría logrado siete escaños] {{webarchive. link. (March 6, 2009 {{in lang). es
70. The discrepancy can be understood in terms of the seat allocation method used (the [[D'Hondt method]]) and, most importantly, the fact that seats are independently assigned in three 25-seat constituencies. Thus, a party can lose up to three seats by losing a single vote in each constituency.
71. (2 March 2009). "Ibarretxe gana sin garantías de gobernar". El País.
72. (2 March 2009). "Aralar certifica con creces su éxito electoral al cuadruplicar su peso parlamentario". El País.
73. (2 March 2009). "La amarga victoria en las urnas del PNV". El País.
74. (2 March 2009). "El PP consigue la palanca del cambio". El País.
75. (2 March 2009). "Basagoiti avanza que votará al PSE "si no ha engañado en la campaña"". El País.
76. (2 March 2009). "López se postula como 'lehendakari' y espera el voto del PP". El País.
77. (2 March 2009). ""Estoy legitimado para liderar el cambio"". El País.
78. (3 March 2009). "El tripartito de Ibarretxe se autoliquida". El País.
79. (5 March 2009). "El PNV ofrece un pacto de gobierno al PSE pero impone a Ibarretxe como lehendakari". El Mundo.
80. (3 March 2009). "Benegas intentó ser 'lehendakari' en 1986, pero no lo logró". El País.
81. (12 March 2009). "Ibarretxe dice que el PNV 'seguirá dirigiendo este país, sea desde donde sea'". El Mundo.
82. (3 March 2009). "El PNV se pertrecha para un pulso a fondo por Ajuria Enea". El País.
83. (5 March 2009). "El PNV ofrece un pacto de Gobierno al PSE, que insiste en que López sea lehendakari". RTVE.
84. (7 March 2009). "El PSE no pactará con el PNV aunque sacrifique a Ibarretxe". El País.
85. (2 March 2009). "El PSE, dispuesto a gobernar en solitario en Euskadi". El País.
86. (3 March 2009). "López se propone gobernar en solitario". El País.
87. (2 March 2009). "Zapatero deja al PSE manos libres para pactar alianzas". El País.
88. (3 March 2009). "Zapatero a López: "Adelante, preséntate"". El País.
89. (6 March 2009). "PSE y PP, hacia un pacto de estabilidad". El Mundo.
90. (29 March 2009). "López asegura que su Gobierno velará por el interés general y no por el del PSE". El País.
91. (30 March 2009). "El PP está 'profundamente satisfecho' del acuerdo alcanzado con el PSE". El Mundo.
92. (3 March 2009). "El PNV prepara la barricada". La Vanguardia.
93. (3 March 2009). "El PNV tilda de 'agresión política' un pacto entre PSE, PP y UPyD". El Mundo.
94. (11 March 2009). "Urkullu: un pacto PSE-PP es "legítimo", pero supone un fraude al electorado". [[Expansión (Spanish newspaper).
95. (12 March 2009). "Zapatero ha hablado con la dirección del PNV para aclararle que también se puede estar en la oposición". Cadena SER.
96. (24 March 2009). "Ibarretxe se presentará a la investidura por tener "80.000 razones" más que López". 20 minutos.
97. (26 March 2009). "El PP presidirá el Parlamento vasco a cambio de que Patxi López sea lehendakari". 20 minutos.
98. (5 May 2009). "Patxi López, primer 'lehendakari' no nacionalista de la historia". El País.
99. (17 April 2009). "UPyD apoyará la investidura de López "por imperativo ético" ante ETA". El País.
100. (7 May 2009). "Patxi López ya es lehendakari tras prometer su cargo en Gernika". El Mundo.
101. (5 May 2009). "Ibarretxe anuncia que abandona la política". El País.