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2010 Florida gubernatorial election

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2010 Florida gubernatorial election

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FieldValue
election_name2010 Florida gubernatorial election
countryFlorida
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2006 Florida gubernatorial election
previous_year2006
next_election2014 Florida gubernatorial election
next_year2014
election_dateNovember 2, 2010
image_sizex150px
image1File:Rick Scott official portrait (cropped).jpg
nominee1** Rick Scott**
running_mate1** Jennifer Carroll**
party1Republican Party of Florida
popular_vote1**2,619,335**
percentage1**48.87%**
image2File:Alex Sink (cropped).png
nominee2Alex Sink
running_mate2Rod Smith
party2Florida Democratic Party
popular_vote22,557,785
percentage247.72%
map_image
map_caption**Scott:**
titleGovernor
before_electionCharlie Crist
before_partyIndependent
after_electionRick Scott
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)
turnout48.7%1.9

Sink:
Tie:
The 2010 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Republican-turned-independent incumbent Governor Charlie Crist chose not to run for a second term and he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martínez. This resulted in an open race for Governor of Florida in which Republican Rick Scott narrowly defeated Democrat Alex Sink.

Despite mixed to unfavorable ratings, Rick Scott benefited greatly from the midterm GOP wave in which Republicans made significant gains across the country. Scott was one of six Republican gubernatorial pick-ups nationwide (counting Crist as an independent).

The tight and highly contentious election was one of the standout races in 2010. Despite not professing direct allegiance to the movement, Scott benefited from support and endorsement by Tea Party activists, an influential conservative voting bloc of the 2010 midterms. Furthermore, Scott ran aggressively against the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and exit polls indicated considerable support for that position. This election was the first Florida gubernatorial election since 1982 where the winner of the gubernatorial election was of the same party as the winner of the concurrent United States Senate election.

Primary Elections

Democratic

Candidates

  • Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer of Florida
  • Brian Moore, political activist, 2008 Socialist Party USA Nominee for President of the United States

Before the 2010 Democratic primary, the Florida Democratic Party faced a period of uncertainty. The incumbent governor, Charlie Crist, was widely expected to seek re-election but surprised many in early 2009 by announcing a run for the U.S. Senate instead. This created a rare open seat for governor, sparking speculation among Florida Democrats about who would enter the race.

Alex Sink, then serving as the Chief Financial Officer of Florida, was the only Democrat holding statewide elected office at the time. As a former Bank of America executive, Sink built a reputation as a competent and moderate technocrat. Her husband, Bill McBride, was the Democrat nominee in the 2002 Florida gubernatorial election, but lost to incumbent Governor Jeb Bush. Initially, there were doubts about whether she would run, as she remained noncommittal throughout the first half of 2009. However, in May 2009, she officially announced her candidacy and instantly became the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.

Sink benefited from a largely uncontested path to the nomination. Her only opponent was Brian Moore, a long-shot candidate who previously ran for president in 2008 under the Socialist Party USA banner. Moore qualified for the ballot as a Democrat but did not raise significant funds or gain media traction. On primary day, Sink won the Democratic nomination with nearly 77% of the vote.

Because of this advantage, Sink was able to conserve resources and begin preparing for the general election months in advance. She toured the state, built a coalition of moderate Democrats and independents, and began framing her likely Republican opponent (initially expected to be Attorney General Bill McCollum) as out of touch with mainstream voters. However, political newcomer Rick Scott's upset victory surprised her team.[[File:Florida Governor D Primary 2010.svg|thumb|County results]]

Republican

In May 2009, incumbent governor Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, and instead would run for U.S. Senate. The move immediately turned the race competitive, as GOP-hopefuls lined up to run for the open seat. Former congressman and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum emerged as the early favorite and had strong backing from the state Republican establishment. In 2000, McCollum was the Republican nominee for Senate, but lost. He ran for the nomination again in 2004 but lost. His run for governor would be his third attempt at a major statewide campaign. McCollum’s early entry allowed him to consolidate endorsements and donor support, and for most of 2009 and early 2010, he campaigned without a serious challenger. However, just before the deadline, Rick Scott, a multimillionaire businessman and former CEO of the Columbia/HCA hospital chain, jumped into the race.

From the outset, Scott launched a media blitz and invested more than $23 million of his own money in just the primary. In total, Scott spent over $50 million in the primary alone. His messaging focused on job creation, cutting taxes, immigration enforcement, and repealing Obamacare. He branded himself as a “conservative outsider,” tapping into rising Tea Party sentiment and widespread voter frustration with government insiders. His “Let’s Get to Work” plan promised to create 700,000 jobs in seven years.

McCollum was initially caught off-guard by Scott’s entry and struggled to keep up in fundraising and advertising. McCollum tried to reframe the race as a referendum on Scott’s past, especially his role in the Columbia/HCA Medicare fraud case. McCollum’s campaign and allied groups ran ads labeling Scott as untrustworthy. One McCollum ad called Scott “the king of Medicare fraud,” a claim Scott strongly rejected, stating he was never personally charged with wrongdoing.

The race turned deeply negative on both sides, with mutual accusations of lying, criminal behavior, and ideological extremism. McCollum also received criticism for hiring a controversial anti-immigration consultant, which alienated some moderate Republicans and Latino voters. Scott took legal action to avoid Florida’s campaign finance “millionaire’s matching funds” provision, which would have granted McCollum more public funding. Televised debates late in the campaign were bitter and personal, with Scott refusing to apologize for his business record and McCollum attacking Scott’s refusal to release full records from his tenure at Columbia/HCA.

Scott led some early polls, but McCollum re-took the lead in polls just before primary day. Scott benefited in absentee voting, while McCollum expected to make up the difference based on turnout. On primary day, Scott won the nomination with just over 46% of the vote. The dejected McCollum team reluctantly conceded after midnight. Scott's victory exposed rifts within the Republican Party between establishment conservatives and the insurgent Tea Party movement. The primary left Scott with high unfavorable ratings and a reputation for aggressive, negative campaigning, but it also gave him name recognition, media dominance, and momentum heading into the general election.[[File:Florida Governor R Primary 2010.svg|thumb|County results]]

General Election

Candidates

Republican

  • Rick Scott, healthcare executive

Democratic

  • Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer of Florida

[[Independence Party of Florida]]

  • Peter L. Allen, electrical inspector

No party affiliation

  • , policy analyst and urban designer who entered the race as a Democrat in June 2009 and later switched to no party affiliation in June 2010
  • Farid Khavari, economist, author, and small business owner
  • Daniel Imperato
  • Calvin Clarence "C.C." Reed

Campaign

The race was dominated by the two major party candidates and spending on their behalf. By the October 25, 2010, Tampa debate between Scott and Sink, Scott had spent $60 million of his own money on the campaign compared to Sink's $28 million. Total campaign expenditure for the race exceeded $100 million, far exceeding any previous spending for a governor's race in Florida. Scott spent $78 million of his personal wealth in the race. Sink made an issue of Scott's connections to Columbia/HCA, a Medicare billing fraud scandal.

One of the turning points in the campaign came during the debate. During a commercial break, Sink's make-up artist delivered a text message on her cell phone to Sink, in direct violation of the debate rules. The rules infraction was immediately pointed out by Scott and the debate moderators. Sink's team was accused of cheating during the debate, and the aide who delivered the message was fired from the campaign the next morning. Afterwards, media and observers were very critical of the gaffe.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political ReportOctober 14, 2010
RothenbergOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPoliticsNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 28, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Democratic primary

Poll sourceDates administeredAlex SinkMichael E. Arth
Mason DixonJune 24–26, 2009**49%**4%

Republican primary

Poll sourceDates administeredBill McCollumRick ScottPaula Dockery
QuinnipiacAugust 21–22, 2010**39%**35%–
Public Policy PollingAugust 21–22, 201040%**47%**–
Mason-DixonAugust 17–19, 2010**45%**36%–
QuinnipiacAugust 11–16, 2010**44%**35%–
Sunshine State NewsAugust 12–15, 201042%**44%**–
Mason DixonAugust 9–11, 2010**34%**30%–
date=September 2024bot=medic}}August 6–10, 201032%**42%**–
Mason DixonAugust 2–4, 201031%**37%**–
url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100822111959/http://www.theledger.com/article/20100731/NEWS/7315026/1410?Title=Rick-Scott-Pulls-Well-Out-Frontdate=August 22, 2010 }}July 24–28, 201025%**41%**–
QuinnipiacJuly 22–27, 201032%**43%**–
Public Policy PollingJuly 16–18, 201029%**43%**–
Florida Chamber of CommerceJune 9–13, 201030%**35%**–
QuinnipiacJune 2–8, 201031%**44%**–
Mason-DixonMay 3–5, 2010**38%**24%7%
Research 2000November 16–18, 2009**45%**–9%
Strategic VisionMay 29–31, 2009**44%**–28%

General election

Polling for the 2010 Florida Gubernatorial Election
Poll sourceDates administeredBud Chiles (I)Rick Scott (R)Alex Sink (D)
Mason-DixonMay 3–5, 2010—36%**38%**
Rasmussen ReportsMay 16, 2010—**41%**40%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 7, 2010—**45%**40%
QuinnipiacJune 7, 201013%**35%**26%
Florida Chamber of CommerceJune 9–13, 201015%**31%**26%
Ipsos/ReutersJuly 9–11, 201012%**34%**31%
Public Policy PollingJuly 16–18, 201013%30%**36%**
QuinnipiacJuly 22–27, 201014%**29%**27%
The Florida PollJuly 24–28, 201011%**30%**28%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 2, 201016%**35%**31%
bot=medic}}August 6–10, 201014%**30%**29%
Mason-DixonAugust 9–11, 201017%24%**40%**
QuinnipiacAugust 11–16, 201012%29%**33%**
Public Policy PollingAugust 21–22, 20108%34%**41%**
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 25, 20104%**45%**42%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 1, 2010—**45%**44%
Sunshine State NewsSeptember 1–7, 201042%**44%**
CNNSeptember 2–7, 201042%**49%**
FOX NewsSeptember 11, 201041%**49%**
Reuters/IpsosSeptember 12, 201045%**47%**
Mason-DixonSeptember 20–22, 201040%**47%**
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 22, 2010**50%**44%
QuinnipiacSeptember 23–28, 2010**49%**43%
CNNSeptember 24–28, 2010**47%**45%
Sunshine State NewsSeptember 26 – October 3, 2010**44%**42%
TCPalm.com /ZogbySeptember 27–29, 201039%**41%**
Florida Chamber of CommerceSeptember 27–30, 2010**46%**42%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 30, 2010**46%**41%
Mason-DixonOctober 4–6, 201040%**44%**
Miami-Dade CollegeOctober 5, 2010**52%**46%
QuinnipiacOctober 6–8, 2010**45%**44%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 7, 2010**50%**47%
PPPOctober 9–10, 201041%**46%**
SusquehannaOctober 12–13, 201045%**48%**
SuffolkOctober 14–17, 201038%**45%**
CNN Opinion ResearchOctober 15–19, 2010**49%**46%
Ipsos/St. Pete TimesOctober 15–19, 2010**44%**41%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 18, 2010**50%**44%
Naples Daily News /ZogbyOctober 18–21, 201039%**43%**
QuinnipiacOctober 18–24, 201041%**45%**
SusquehannaOctober 20, 2010**45%****45%**
Susquehanna/Sunshine State NewsOctober 24–25, 2010**47%**45%
url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101103141730/http://www.theledger.com/article/20101030/NEWS/10305068/1410?p=1&tc=pgdate=November 3, 2010 }}October 23–27, 2010**44%**39%
QuinnipiacOctober 25–31, 201043%**44%**
Mason-DixonOctober 26–27, 201043%**46%**
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 27, 2010**48%**45%
Susquehanna/Sunshine StateOctober 29–31, 201046%**49%**
Public Policy PollingOctober 30–31, 201047%**48%**

Hypothetical Polls

Poll sourceDates administeredBill McCollumAlex SinkBud Chiles
QuinnipiacAugust 11–16, 201029%**31%**12%
Mason-DixonAugust 9–11, 201035%**37%**13%
bot=medic}}August 6–10, 201026%**30%**12%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 2, 201027%**31%**20%
The Florida PollJuly 24–28, 201026%**27%**12%
QuinnipiacJuly 22–27, 2010**27%**26%14%
Public Policy PollingJuly 16–18, 201023%**37%**14%
Ipsos/ReutersJuly 9–11, 201030%**31%**12%
Florida Chamber of CommerceJune 9–13, 2010**30%**26%15%
QuinnipiacJune 7, 2010**33%**25%19%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 7, 2010**40%**38%—
Rasmussen ReportsMay 16, 2010**43%**35%—
Mason-DixonMay 7, 2010**45%**36%—
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 18, 2010**47%**36%—
Public Policy PollingMarch 5–8, 2010**44%**31%—
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 18, 2010**48%**35%—
Fabrizo/McLaughlin & AssociatesJanuary 31, 2010**41%**32%—
Rasmussen ReportsJanuary 27, 2010**46%**35%—
QuinnipiacJanuary 27, 2010**41%**31%
Rasmussen ReportsDecember 14, 2009**44%**39%—
Research 2000November 16–18, 2009**35%**33%—
St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9October 25–28, 200937%**38%**—
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 20, 2009**46%**35%—
QuinnipiacAugust 19, 2009**38%**34%1%
Public Opinion StrategiesAugust 4–5, 2009**48%**37%—
Rasmussen ReportsJune 22, 2009**42%**34%—
QuinnipiacJune 2–7, 200934%**38%**1%
Mason DixonMay 14–18, 2009**40%**34%—
Mason DixonMarch 30 – April 1, 2009**36%**35%—

Results

The 2010 governor's race was one of Florida's closest, decided by just over 60,000 votes. Unlike the concurrent Senate race, the governor's race remained in doubt late into the night. When polls closed, Scott had a lead, but as the night progressed, the margin narrowed. The next day, with over 99% of precincts reporting, Scott maintained about a 1% lead in the raw vote. Despite a small number of still-uncounted ballots from Palm Beach County, Sink's chances of winning were negligible, as Scott was still ahead by over 50,000 – much more than the 3,000 uncounted ballots, and more importantly, still above the threshold of 0.5% to trigger a mandatory recount. Sink conceded the day after the election.

Exit polls showed that Scott won among independents and the two candidates split the Hispanic vote.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Franklin (largest city: Eastpoint)
  • Liberty (largest city: Bristol)
  • Hillsborough (largest municipality: Tampa)
  • Osceola (largest municipality: Kissimmee)
  • Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)
  • St. Lucie (largest city: Port St. Lucie)
  • Orange (Largest city: Orlando)

Notes

References

References

  1. "November 2, 2010 General Election".
  2. [[Mel Martinez. Martinez]] resigned his seat in December 2008, and Crist appointed Republican [[George LeMieux]] to serve the remainder of Martinez's term. LeMieux declined to run for election, and Crist was one of three major candidates in the [[United States Senate election in Florida, 2010. election for U.S. Senate]].
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  95. [https://web.archive.org/web/20111009132336/http://www.ronsachs.com/docs/may2009poll.pdf Mason Dixon]
  96. [http://www.sayfiereview.com/sayfiereviewcompowerplay-poll-1.php Mason Dixon]
  97. "Florida Department of State - Election Results".
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