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2004 United States Senate election in Florida

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2004 United States Senate election in Florida

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FieldValue
election_name2004 United States Senate election in Florida
countryFlorida
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election1998 United States Senate election in Florida
previous_year1998
next_election2010 United States Senate election in Florida
next_year2010
election_dateNovember 2, 2004
image_size150x150px
image1Mel Martinez.jpg
nominee1**Mel Martínez**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**3,672,864**
percentage1**49.43%**
image2Betty Castor (cropped).jpg
nominee2Betty Castor
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote23,590,201
percentage248.32%
map_image2004 United States Senate election in Florida results map by county.svg
map_size300px
map_captionCounty results
**Martinez:**
**Castor:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionBob Graham
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionMel Martínez
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

Martinez:
Castor:
The 2004 United States Senate election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Democratic incumbent Bob Graham ran unsuccessfully for president of the United States instead of seeking a fourth term. Mel Martínez won the open race to succeed Graham over Betty Castor.

Primary elections were held on August 31, 2004. Castor defeated U.S. representative Peter Deutsch to win the Democratic nomination, while Martínez won the Republican nomination over 2000 nominee Bill McCollum and businessman Doug Gallagher with the support of President George W. Bush.

In the general election, Martínez won the open seat with 49.4 percent of the vote to 48.3 percent for Castor. This was the first open election for this seat since 1974 and the closest race of the 2004 United States Senate elections.

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Betty Castor, former President of the University of South Florida, former Education Commissioner of Florida, and former state senator
  • Peter Deutsch, U.S. representative from Broward County
  • Bernard Klein, businessman
  • Alex Penelas, mayor of Miami-Dade County

Declined

  • Bob Graham, incumbent U.S. senator since 1987 and former governor

Results

County results

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Johnnie Byrd, state representative from Plant City and speaker of the Florida House of Representatives
  • Doug Gallagher, businessman
  • Larry Klayman, attorney
  • William Kogut
  • Sonya March
  • Mel Martínez, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 1994
  • Bill McCollum, former U.S. representative from Longwood and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2000
  • Karen Saull

Withdrew

  • Mark Foley, U.S. representative from Jupiter (withdrew September 6, 2003)
  • Daniel Webster, state senator from Clermont
  • Dave Weldon, U.S. representative from Indialantic

Campaign

An early contender for the Republican nomination was U.S. representative Mark Foley, who raised $3 million for his Senate campaign and was seen as marginally more moderate than his opponents. However, longstanding rumors regarding Foley's sexuality came under scrutiny in the alternative press. While Foley denounced the rumors in an unusual press conference, he did not deny them, instead arguing that his sexuality had no bearing on his ability as a legislator. Foley withdrew from the campaign on September 6, 2003, citing his father's diagnosis with cancer. Foley would later resign from office in 2006 and come out as "a gay man" after revelations that he had sent explicit sexual messages to teenage boys who had served as congressional pages.

Martínez was supported by the Bush administration.

Results

County results

General election

Candidates

  • Dennis Bradley, activist (Veterans)
  • Betty Castor, former President of the University of South Florida, former Education Commissioner of Florida, and former state senator (Democratic)
  • Mel Martínez, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 1994 (Republican)

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorBetty
Castor (D)Mel
Martínez (R)OtherUndecided
Reuters/Zogby InternationalOctober 29 – November 1, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%43%**48%**1%9%
FOX News/Opinion DynamicsOctober 30–31, 2004700 (LV)± 3.0%**47%**41%–12%
SurveyUSAOctober 29–31, 2004738 (LV)± 3.7%**48%****48%**4%–
Strategic Vision (R)October 29–31, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%45%**49%**–6%
InsiderAdvantageOctober 29–31, 2004400 (LV)± 5.0%**47%**46%1%7%
Reuters/Zogby InternationalOctober 28–31, 2004600 (LV)± 4.0%**46%****46%**–7%
CNN/USA Today/GallupOctober 28–31, 20041,138 (LV)± 4.0%**48%**46%–5%
1,300 (RV)± 3.0%**48%**45%–7%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 27–31, 20041,098 (LV)± 3.0%44%**49%**–6%
Reuters/Zogby InternationalOctober 27–30, 2004600 (LV)± 4.1%**48%**45%2%5%
Reuters/Zogby InternationalOctober 26–29, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%**47%**46%2%5%
Reuters/Zogby InternationalOctober 25–28, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%45%**47%**2%6%
Mason-DixonOctober 26–27, 2004625 (LV)± 4.0%46%**47%**–6%
Strategic Vision (R)October 25–27, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%46%**49%**–5%
Reuters/Zogby InternationalOctober 24–27, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%**45%****45%**1%9%
*The New York Times*October 23–27, 2004802 (LV)± 3.0%**47%**44%–10%
Reuters/Zogby InternationalOctober 23–26, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%**48%**45%–7%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 22–26, 2004944 (LV)± 3.2%46%**49%**–5%
Reuters/Zogby InternationalOctober 22–25, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%**47%****47%**–6%
Strategic Vision (R)October 22–24, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%46%**48%**–6%
InsiderAdvantageOctober 22–24, 2004400 (LV)± 5.0%44%**46%**–10%
SurveyUSAOctober 22–24, 2004738 (LV)± 3.7%**50%**47%3%–
Reuters/Zogby InternationalOctober 21–24, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%44%**47%**1%8%
Schroth, Eldon & Associates (D)/
The Polling Company (R)October 19–21, 2004800 (LV)± 3.5%**44%****44%**–12%
Research 2000October 18–21, 2004600 (LV)± 4.0%**48%****48%**–4%
Strategic Vision (R)October 18–20, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%45%**48%**–7%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 15–19, 2004808 (LV)± 3.5%**47%****47%**–5%
1,208 (RV)± 2.8%41%**43%**1%15%
SurveyUSAOctober 15–17, 2004596 (LV)± 4.1%47%**49%**3%1%
Mason-DixonOctober 14–16, 2004625 (LV)± 4.0%**45%****45%**1%9%
University of North FloridaOctober 10–15, 2004614 (LV)± 4.0%**38%**35%4%23%
Strategic Vision (R)October 12–14, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%**47%****47%**–6%
Strategic Vision (R)October 4–6, 2004801 (LV)± 3.0%**48%**45%–7%
Mason-DixonOctober 4–5, 2004625 (LV)± 4.0%41%**46%**1%12%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 1–5, 2004717 (LV)± 3.7%47%**48%**–5%
1,083 (RV)± 3.0%**44%**40%2%14%
SurveyUSAOctober 1–3, 2004706 (LV)± 3.8%46%**50%**3%1%
CNN/USA Today/GallupSeptember 18–22, 2004674 (LV)± 4.0%**51%**45%–4%
843 (RV)**49%**43%–8%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 18–21, 2004819 (RV)± 3.4%**43%**42%1%14%
SurveyUSASeptember 12–14, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%**49%**45%5%1%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 24, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%**44%****44%**–12%

Betty Castor vs. Bill McCollum

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorBetty
Castor (D)Bill
McCollum (R)OtherUndecided
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 24, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%**42%**39%–19%

Peter Deutsch vs. Mel Martínez

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorPeter
Deutsch (D)Mel
Martínez (R)OtherUndecided
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 24, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%39%**47%**–14%

Peter Deutsch vs. Bill McCollum

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorPeter
Deutsch (D)Bill
McCollum (R)OtherUndecided
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 24, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%37%**44%**–19%

Results

Results by county

CountyMel MartínezBetty CastorVarious CandidatesMarginTotal votes cast#%#%#%#%Totals3,672,86449.43%3,590,20148.32%166,8292.24%82,6631.11%7,429,894
Alachua43,07439.63%63,80958.71%1,8021.65%-20,735-19.08%108,685
Baker6,81569.16%2,85328.95%1861.89%3,96240.21%9,854
Bay49,63967.63%22,19030.23%1,5642.13%27,44937.40%73,393
Bradford6,53460.83%3,93836.66%2702.51%3,59624.17%10,742
Brevard142,39454.44%111,47742.62%7,6822.94%30,91711.82%261,553
Broward231,26633.63%442,72864.37%13,7802.00%-211,462-30.74%687,774
Calhoun3,13353.70%2,52643.30%1753.00%60710.40%5,834
Charlotte43,07955.48%32,83742.29%1,7292.23%10,24213.19%77,645
Citrus33,99849.68%31,69946.32%2,7424.01%2,2993.36%68,439
Clay58,13172.24%20,83125.89%1,5031.86%37,30046.35%80,465
Collier81,94865.97%40,33232.47%1,9341.56%41,61633.50%124,214
Columbia14,01457.15%9,78039.89%7262.96%4,23417.26%24,520
DeSoto4,99453.58%4,03143.25%2953.17%96310.33%9,320
Dixie3,32252.67%2,73543.36%2503.97%5879.31%6,307
Duval205,00154.68%163,74843.68%6,1601.64%41,25311.00%374,909
Escambia88,78763.56%48,27434.56%2,6321.88%40,51329.00%139,693
Flagler18,29448.13%18,81249.49%9042.38%-518-1.36%38,010
Franklin2,70647.13%2,88650.26%1502.61%-180-3.13%5,742
Gadsden5,23025.15%15,24673.33%3161.52%-10,016-48.18%20,792
Gilchrist4,06058.87%2,57837.38%2583.74%1,48221.49%6,896
Glades2,14752.15%1,82144.23%1493.62%3267.92%4,117
Gulf4,08657.36%2,85840.12%1802.53%1,22817.24%7,124
Hamilton2,20644.75%2,59752.68%1272.58%-391-7.93%4,930
Hardee4,02456.38%2,80639.32%3074.30%1,21817.06%7,137
Hendry5,35055.75%4,02741.97%2192.28%1,32313.78%9,596
Hernando36,55746.08%39,63449.96%3,1433.96%-3,077-3.88%79,334
Highlands22,32654.72%17,19642.15%1,2783.13%5,13012.57%40,800
Hillsborough207,33146.29%230,29851.42%10,2612.29%-22,967-5.13%447,890
Holmes5,11463.42%2,60832.34%3424.24%2,50631.08%8,064
Indian River34,33857.82%23,51139.59%1,5432.60%10,82718.23%59,392
Jackson10,44953.73%8,60544.24%3952.04%1,8449.49%19,449
Jefferson2,72236.93%4,50461.10%1451.97%-1,782-24.17%7,371
Lafayette1,76854.57%1,39042.90%822.53%37811.67%3,240
Lake68,42556.37%49,63540.89%3,3192.73%18,79015.48%121,379
Lee139,81059.90%89,04838.15%4,5311.94%50,76221.75%233,389
Leon45,45334.09%86,18064.64%1,6911.27%-40,727-30.55%133,324
Levy8,73553.39%7,12943.57%4973.04%1,6069.82%16,361
Liberty1,44848.75%1,45949.12%632.12%-11-0.37%2,970
Madison3,31840.58%4,64056.74%2192.68%-1,322-16.16%8,177
Manatee72,82951.53%64,79545.85%3,6992.62%8,0345.68%141,323
Marion73,53053.23%60,81444.02%3,7992.75%12,7169.21%138,143
Martin39,07655.41%29,86842.35%1,5792.23%9,20813.06%70,523
Miami-Dade367,86749.21%366,48249.02%13,2021.77%1,3850.19%747,551
Monroe18,07547.19%18,96149.50%1,2673.31%-886-2.31%38,303
Nassau21,89368.40%9,51929.74%5951.86%12,37438.66%32,007
Okaloosa65,14674.71%19,64522.53%2,4132.77%45,50152.18%87,204
Okeechobee5,95950.00%5,46445.84%4964.16%4954.16%11,919
Orange188,12149.15%187,54949.00%7,0811.85%5720.15%382,751
Osceola42,10352.00%36,56945.16%2,2962.84%5,5346.84%80,968
Palm Beach200,44237.96%318,04260.23%9,5661.81%-117,600-22.27%528,050
Pasco89,40048.01%90,76148.74%6,0443.24%-1,361-0.73%186,205
Pinellas197,64042.55%254,45154.78%12,3792.66%-56,811-12.23%464,470
Polk108,77452.28%93,23144.81%6,0512.91%15,5437.47%208,056
Putnam15,94152.23%13,70144.89%8762.87%2,2407.34%30,518
St. Johns56,25166.19%27,31932.14%1,4201.67%28,93234.05%84,990
St. Lucie44,43645.34%50,66051.69%2,9052.96%-6,224-6.35%98,001
Santa Rosa49,14974.65%15,16523.03%1,5242.31%33,98451.62%65,838
Sarasota95,42550.08%91,65148.10%3,4551.81%3,7741.98%190,531
Seminole102,89856.11%76,57941.76%3,9142.13%26,31914.35%183,391
Sumter17,92957.05%12,84440.87%6562.09%5,08516.18%31,429
Suwannee9,09558.45%6,06939.00%3972.55%2,62919.45%15,561
Taylor4,24150.17%3,97246.98%2412.85%2693.19%8,454
Union2,87462.49%1,63235.49%932.05%1,24227.00%4,599
Volusia104,03246.21%114,93251.05%6,1742.74%-10,900-4.84%225,138
Wakulla5,24045.10%6,04852.05%3312.85%-808-6.95%11,619
Walton16,03868.56%6,77028.94%5852.50%9,26839.62%23,393
Washington6,41463.45%3,45234.15%2422.39%2,96229.30%10,108

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Calhoun (Largest city: Blountstown)
  • Citrus (Largest city: Homosassa Springs)
  • Dixie (Largest city: Cross City)
  • Glades (Largest city: Moore Haven)
  • Gulf (Largest city: Port St. Joe)
  • Levy (Largest city: Williston)
  • Putnam (Largest city: Palatka)
  • Taylor (Largest city: Perry)
  • Jackson (Largest city: Marianna)
  • Lafayette (Largest city: Mayo)
  • Union (Largest city: Lake Butler)
  • Washington (Largest city: Chipley)
  • Brevard (largest municipality: Palm Bay)
  • Okeechobee (largest municipality: Okeechobee)
  • Polk (largest municipality: Lakeland)
  • Miami-Dade (largest city: Miami)
  • Osceola (largest municipality: Kissimmee)
  • Orange (Largest city: Orlando)
  • Escambia (Largest city: Pensacola)
  • Hendry (Largest city: Clewiston)
  • Marion (Largest city: Ocala)
  • Hardee (Largest city: Wachula)
  • Highlands (Largest city: Sebring)
  • Indian River (Largest city: Sebastian)
  • Lake (Largest city: Clermont)
  • Lee (Largest city: Cape Coral)
  • Suwannee (Largest city: Live Oak)
  • Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville)
  • Charlotte (Largest city: Charlotte)
  • Columbia (Largest city: Lake City)
  • DeSoto (Largest city: Arcadia)
  • Gilchrist (Largest city: Trenton)
  • Sumter (Largest city: The Villages)
  • Bradford (Largest city: Starke)
  • Baker (Largest city: Macclenny)
  • Bay (Largest city: Panama City)
  • Clay (Largest city: Lakeside)
  • Holmes (Largest city: Bonifay)
  • Manatee (Largest city: Bradenton)
  • Martin (Largest city: Palm City)
  • Nassau (Largest city: Yulee)
  • St. Johns (Largest city: St. Johns)
  • Walton (Largest city: Miramar Beach)
  • Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)

Notes

Partisan clients

References

References

  1. "Florida Department of State - Election Results".
  2. "Rep. Foley bows out of GOP race for Senate seat".
  3. Michelangelo Signorile, [http://www.nypress.com/16/22/news&columns/signorile.cfm “Liberace Candidate: Mark Foley’s glass closet”] {{webarchive. link. (2006-12-06, ''New York Press'', May 28, 2003.)
  4. [http://www.washblade.com/2004/7-9/news/localnews/outed.cfm 2004 “Outed Hill staffer condemns campaign: Mikulski and Foley become newest congressional targets as FMA vote nears”] {{webarchive. link. (2005-10-30, ''Washington Blade'' (District of Columbia), July 9, 2004.)
  5. [http://www.bostonphoenix.com/boston/news_features/editorial/documents/02919063.htm "Being gay in the GOP: Congressman Mark Foley: A model of political hypocrisy and personal cowardice"] {{webarchive. link. (2005-11-26, ''Boston Phoenix'', May 30, 2003)
  6. Mark Meenan, [http://www.gaycitynews.com/gcn222/ishegay.html “Is He Gay or Not? U.S. Rep. Mark Foley calls press to say he won't talk about his sexual preference”] {{webarchive. link. (2005-12-15, ''Gay City News'', May 30, 2003.)
  7. "Florida Department of State - Election Results".
  8. "The Final Predictions".
  9. (November 1, 2004). "FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll".
  10. (November 1, 2004). "No Sense Trying to Make Sense of FL: Was Tied, Remains Tied; Maybe.".
  11. "Poll Results – FL".
  12. "Florida 2004 Polls".
  13. (November 2, 2004). "Election 2004 Zogby Battleground State Polls".
  14. (November 1, 2004). "Kerry holds edge in Florida".
  15. (November 1, 2004). "Quinnipiac University Poll results in 3 key states".
  16. (October 30, 2004). "Bile Flows As A Tied Senate Race Heads To End".
  17. (October 30, 2004). "Castor Has Slim Lead in New Poll".
  18. (October 28, 2004). "Bush Has 3-Point Lead In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Has Slight Lead In Senate Race".
  19. (October 25, 2004). "Florida: 8 Days to Election, Hold Your Breath; Kerry Up 2, Castor Up 3".
  20. (October 25, 2004). "Poll: Martinez, Castor still deadlocked in U.S. Senate race".
  21. (October 25, 2004). "Volatile Senate Contest a 48% Tie".
  22. (October 21, 2004). "Kerry Closes Gap To Make Florida Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Senate Race Is A Dead Heat".
  23. (October 18, 2004). "Florida, 15 Days to the Election: President & U.S. Senate Races Tied".
  24. (October 18, 2004). "Debate Could Sway Tight Race".
  25. (October 2004). "Survey of Florida Voters Shows Close Presidential Race; Senate Race Shows Many Still Undecided".
  26. Cotterell, Bill. (October 8, 2004). "Senate race has new leader".
  27. (October 7, 2004). "Bush Holds 7-Point Lead In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Kerry Gets Lift From First Debate".
  28. (October 4, 2004). "Florida After First Presidential Debate: Bush Up by 5, Martinez Up by 4".
  29. (September 22, 2004). "Bush holds edge in key battleground states".
  30. (September 23, 2004). "Hurricanes Blow Bush Into Lead In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Senate Race Is Too Close To Call".
  31. (September 14, 2004). "Florida: Bush Up 6 Over Kerry, Castor Up 4 Pts Over Martinez".
  32. (August 24, 2004). "Florida Senate Race: Castor Strongest Democrat".
  33. "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".
  34. "Voter Registration - Yearly - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State".
  35. "Our Campaigns - FL US Senate Race - Nov 02, 2004".
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