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2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

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2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

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FieldValue
election_name2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
countryWisconsin
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
previous_year2004
next_election2012 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
next_year2012
turnout69.2% ( 3.7%)
election_dateNovember 4, 2008
image_sizex200px
image1Obama portrait crop.jpg
nominee1**Barack Obama**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
home_state1Illinois
running_mate1**Joe Biden**
electoral_vote1**10**
popular_vote1**1,677,211**
percentage1**56.22%**
image2John McCain official portrait 2009 (cropped).jpg
nominee2John McCain
party2Republican Party (United States)
home_state2Arizona
running_mate2Sarah Palin
electoral_vote20
popular_vote21,262,393
percentage242.31%
map_image{{Switcher
map_caption
titlePresident
before_electionGeorge W. Bush
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionBarack Obama
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

| [[File:Wisconsin Presidential Election Results 2008.svg|300px]] | County results |[[File:2008 US Presidential election in Wisconsin by congressional district.svg|300px]] |Congressional district results | [[File:2008 Presidential Election in Wisconsin by Precinct.svg|300px]] | Precinct results Obama McCain Tie/No Data The 2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. State voters chose 10 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Democratic U.S. Senator from Illinois Barack Obama, and his running mate U.S. Senator from Delaware Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and U.S. Senator from Arizona John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Also on the ballot were four third parties: activist and former presidential candidate Ralph Nader ran as an Independent with his running mate, President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors Matt Gonzalez. The Libertarian Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Bob Barr for president and conservative author Wayne Allyn Root for vice president. Pastor Chuck Baldwin and attorney Darrell Castle were nominated by the right-wing Constitution Party, and the left-wing Green Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Cynthia McKinney and community organizer Rosa Clemente.

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 13.91% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state, despite the extremely close margins of victory in the previous two presidential elections. Polling throughout the state began to show a sizable and widening lead for Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois over Republican John McCain of Arizona. Obama carried Wisconsin with over 56% of the vote, significantly improving upon John Kerry's very narrow margin of victory in 2004. Obama is the only candidate since 1988 to win the state with the majority of the vote, and the only candidate since 1996 to win by a margin of more than 1%, both of which he would go on to do again in 2012.

Whether measured by raw vote margin, percentage of total votes, or two-party percentage, Obama's victory remains the strongest performance for any candidate in the state since the landslide re-election of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In fact, Obama carried two of three counties that voted for Barry Goldwater in that election and became the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 to carry Waupaca County, and only the second Democratic nominee to carry that county since the Civil War. This is also the most recent election where Wisconsin was decided by double digits, the first time since 1936 that Wisconsin voted more Democratic than its neighboring state of Minnesota, as well as the last in which the Democratic candidate won a majority of counties in the state.

As of 2024, this is the last time that Barron, Brown, Burnett, Calumet, Chippewa, Clark, Iron, Jefferson, Kewaunee, Langlade, Manitowac, Marathon, Marinette, Monroe, Oconto, Oneida, Outagamie, Pierce, Rusk, Shawano, Washburn, Waupaca, Waushara, and Wood counties voted Democratic.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

SourceRanking
D.C. Political Report
Cook Political Report
The Takeaway
Electoral-vote.com
The Washington PostWashington Post
Politico
RealClearPolitics
FiveThirtyEight
CQ Politics
The New York Times
CNN
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News
Associated Press
Rasmussen Reports

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election#Wisconsin

Pre-election polling early on showed a tight race. However, after May 18, Obama swept every single poll. Since September 21, Obama won every poll with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 53% to 40%.

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,728,185 in the state. Barack Obama raised $4,862,486.

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $13,586,634. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,240,899. Each ticket visited the state 7 times.

Analysis

Having voted for the Democratic presidential nominees by comfortable margins in 1988, 1992, and 1996, but extremely narrow margins in 2000 and 2004, Wisconsin was originally considered to be a swing state in 2008. However, Obama took a wide lead in the polls in Wisconsin in the final weeks before the election and many pundits and news organizations labeled the state as a safe blue state.

Obama won Wisconsin by a comfortable 13.91% margin of victory. Obama carried the heavily Democratic cities of Milwaukee and Madison by large margins, winning above two-thirds of the vote, along with some traditionally Republican cities like Green Bay and Appleton. In Dane County, he won almost 73% of the vote, and carried 67.3% in Milwaukee County. This was consistent with Obama's pattern of strong performances in the states bordering Illinois. Obama's best performance, at 86.81%, was in the small county of Menominee, which is 87% Native American. The state's Republican base essentially melted; John McCain only carried 13 of the state's 72 counties, a devastating defeat. McCain did best in the Milwaukee suburbs like Waukesha and Ozaukee counties, with his best performance in Washington County where he received 64.14% of the vote. He only won five counties in the Northern part of the state, all of which by rather narrow margins.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in WisconsinPartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
**Democratic****Barack Obama****Joe Biden****1,677,211****56.22%****10**
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin1,262,39342.31%0
IndependentRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez17,6050.59%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root8,8580.30%0
Write-insWrite-ins6,5210.22%0
IndependentChuck BaldwinDarrell Castle5,0720.17%0
GreenCynthia McKinneyRosa Clemente4,2160.14%0
IndependentJeffrey Wamboldt7640.03%0
IndependentBrian MooreStewart Alexander5400.02%0
IndependentGloria La Riva2370.01%0
**Totals****2,983,417****100.00%****10**
Voter turnout (Voting age population)70.8%

By county

CountyBarack Obama
DemocraticJohn McCain
RepublicanVarious candidates
Other partiesMarginTotal votes cast#%#%#%#%Totals1,677,21156.22%1,262,39342.31%43,8131.47%414,81813.91%2,983,417
Adams5,80658.14%3,97439.80%2062.06%1,83218.34%9,986
Ashland5,81867.86%2,63430.72%1221.42%3,18437.14%8,574
Barron12,07852.77%10,45745.69%3511.54%1,6217.08%22,886
Bayfield5,97263.08%3,36535.54%1311.38%2,60727.54%9,468
Brown67,26953.92%55,85444.77%1,6311.31%11,4159.15%124,754
Buffalo3,94956.41%2,92341.76%1281.83%1,02614.65%7,000
Burnett4,33749.92%4,20048.34%1511.74%1371.58%8,688
Calumet13,29550.22%12,72248.05%4571.73%5732.17%26,474
Chippewa16,23953.72%13,49244.63%5001.65%2,7479.09%30,231
Clark7,45452.54%6,38344.99%3502.47%1,0717.55%14,187
Columbia16,66156.92%12,19341.65%4181.43%4,46815.27%29,272
Crawford4,98762.49%2,83035.46%1642.05%2,15727.03%7,981
Dane205,98472.80%73,06525.82%3,8901.37%132,91946.98%282,939
Dodge19,18344.80%23,01553.74%6251.46%-3,832-8.94%42,823
Door10,14258.02%7,11240.68%2271.30%3,03017.34%17,481
Douglas15,83065.78%7,83532.56%4011.66%7,99533.22%24,066
Dunn13,00256.56%9,56641.61%4211.83%3,43614.95%22,989
Eau Claire33,14660.25%20,95938.10%9051.65%12,18722.15%55,010
Florence1,13442.23%1,51256.31%391.46%-378-14.08%2,685
Fond du Lac23,46344.84%28,16453.83%6961.33%-4,701-8.99%52,323
Forest2,67357.08%1,96341.92%471.00%71015.16%4,683
Grant14,87561.16%9,06837.29%3771.55%5,80723.87%24,320
Green11,50262.06%6,73036.31%3021.63%4,77225.75%18,534
Green Lake4,00041.95%5,39356.55%1431.50%-1,393-14.60%9,536
Iowa7,98766.73%3,82931.99%1531.28%4,15834.74%11,969
Iron1,91455.77%1,46442.66%541.57%45013.11%3,432
Jackson5,57260.23%3,55238.40%1271.37%2,02021.83%9,251
Jefferson21,44849.69%21,09648.87%6221.44%3520.82%43,166
Juneau6,18653.65%5,14844.65%1961.70%1,0389.00%11,530
Kenosha45,83658.18%31,60940.12%1,3441.70%14,22718.06%78,789
Kewaunee5,90254.71%4,71143.67%1741.62%1,19111.04%10,787
La Crosse38,52460.94%23,70137.49%9931.57%14,82323.45%63,218
Lafayette4,73260.43%2,98438.10%1151.47%1,74822.33%7,831
Langlade5,18249.82%5,08148.85%1391.33%1010.97%10,402
Lincoln8,42455.17%6,51942.70%3252.13%1,90512.47%15,268
Manitowoc22,42852.88%19,23445.35%7521.77%3,1947.53%42,414
Marathon36,36753.53%30,34544.66%1,2281.81%6,0228.87%67,940
Marinette11,19552.67%9,72645.76%3341.57%1,4696.91%21,255
Marquette4,06851.85%3,65446.57%1241.58%4145.28%7,846
Menominee1,25786.81%18512.78%60.41%1,07274.03%1,448
Milwaukee319,81967.30%149,44531.45%5,9281.25%170,37435.85%475,192
Monroe10,19853.25%8,66645.25%2881.50%1,5328.00%19,152
Oconto9,92752.34%8,75546.16%2861.50%1,1726.18%18,968
Oneida11,90754.30%9,63043.92%3901.78%2,27710.38%21,927
Outagamie50,29454.93%39,67743.33%1,5921.74%10,61711.60%91,563
Ozaukee20,57938.56%32,17260.29%6141.15%-11,593-21.73%53,365
Pepin2,10255.74%1,61642.85%531.41%48612.89%3,771
Pierce11,80353.39%9,81244.38%4922.23%1,9919.01%22,107
Polk10,87648.03%11,28249.83%4852.14%-406-1.80%22,643
Portage24,81762.95%13,81035.03%7952.02%11,00727.92%39,422
Price4,55955.64%3,46142.24%1742.12%1,09813.40%8,194
Racine53,40853.07%45,95445.66%1,2801.27%7,4547.41%100,642
Richland5,04159.66%3,29839.03%1111.31%1,74320.63%8,450
Rock50,52963.82%27,36434.56%1,2761.62%23,16529.26%79,169
Rusk3,85553.01%3,25344.73%1642.26%6028.28%7,272
St. Croix21,17747.25%22,83750.95%8071.80%-1,660-3.70%44,821
Sauk18,61760.79%11,56237.75%4471.46%7,05523.04%30,626
Sawyer4,76552.45%4,19946.22%1211.33%5666.23%9,085
Shawano10,25951.07%9,53847.48%2921.45%7213.59%20,089
Sheboygan30,39548.94%30,80149.59%9111.47%-406-0.65%62,107
Taylor4,56348.82%4,58649.07%1972.11%-23-0.25%9,346
Trempealeau8,32162.50%4,80836.11%1851.39%3,51326.39%13,314
Vernon8,46360.13%5,36738.13%2451.74%3,09622.00%14,075
Vilas6,49147.21%7,05551.31%2041.48%-564-4.10%13,750
Walworth24,17747.95%25,48550.54%7601.51%-1,308-2.59%50,422
Washburn4,69351.50%4,30347.22%1161.28%3904.28%9,112
Washington25,71934.56%47,72964.14%9631.30%-22,010-29.58%74,411
Waukesha85,33936.64%145,15262.32%2,4061.04%-59,813-25.68%232,897
Waupaca12,95250.77%12,23247.95%3271.28%7202.82%25,511
Waushara5,86849.52%5,77048.70%2111.78%980.82%11,849
Winnebago48,16754.94%37,94643.28%1,5641.78%10,22111.66%87,677
Wood21,71055.59%16,58142.46%7611.95%5,12913.13%39,052

;Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Barron (largest city: Rice Lake)
  • Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
  • Burnett (largest village: Grantsburg)
  • Calumet (largest city: Chilton)
  • Chippewa (largest city: Chippewa Falls)
  • Clark (largest city: Neillsville)
  • Columbia (largest city: Portage)
  • Door (largest city: Sturgeon Bay)
  • Forest (largest city: Crandon)
  • Jefferson (largest city: Watertown)
  • Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
  • Kewaunee (largest city: Algoma)
  • Langlade (largest city: Antigo)
  • Lincoln (largest city: Merrill)
  • Manitowoc (largest city: Manitowoc)
  • Marathon (largest city: Wausau)
  • Marinette (largest city: Marinette)
  • Marquette (largest city: Montello)
  • Monroe (largest city: Sparta)
  • Oconto (largest city: Oconto)
  • Oneida (largest city: Rhinelander)
  • Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
  • Racine (largest city: Racine)
  • Richland (largest city: Richland Center)
  • Rusk (largest city: Ladysmith)
  • Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
  • Shawano (largest city: Shawano)
  • Washburn (largest city: Spooner)
  • Waupaca (largest city: New London)
  • Waushara (largest city: Berlin)
  • Winnebago (largest city: Oshkosh)
  • Wood (largest city: Marshfield)
County Flips: {{col-begin}}

Democratic Republican ]]

By congressional district

Barack Obama swept the state, carrying seven of the state's eight congressional districts, including two districts held by Republicans.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
47.45%**51.40%**Paul Ryan
29.78%**69.00%**Tammy Baldwin
40.80%**57.76%**Ron Kind
23.61%**75.39%**Gwen Moore
**57.73%**41.28%Jim Sensenbrenner
48.72%**49.91%**Tom Petri
42.52%**55.91%**David Obey
45.12%**53.59%**Steve Kagen

Electors

Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:

  1. Ray Rivera
  2. Fred Risser
  3. Rollie Hick
  4. Polly Williams
  5. Dean Palmer
  6. Gordon Hintz
  7. Christine Bremer-Muggli
  8. Donsia Strong Hill
  9. Jim Doyle
  10. Joe Wineke

Notes

References

References

  1. "Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics".
  2. (2009-01-01). "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.".
  3. (2015-05-05). "Presidential".
  4. (2009-04-22). "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions".
  5. "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily".
  6. Based on Takeaway
  7. "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com".
  8. "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map".
  9. "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008".
  10. (2008-11-04). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times.
  11. (2008-10-31). "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN.
  12. (April 27, 2010). "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News.
  13. "roadto270".
  14. "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports".
  15. "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  16. "Presidential Campaign Finance".
  17. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN.
  18. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN.
  19. "Reality Check: Wisconsin Still Considered A Swing State".
  20. "RealClearPolitics: Wisconsin Head-to-Head Polls".
  21. "Local and National Election Results". CNN.
  22. "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Menominee County, Wisconsin; Wisconsin".
  23. "OFFICIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS FOR UNITED STATES PRESIDENT - NOVEMBER 4, 2008".
  24. "Wisconsin". The New York Times.
  25. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  26. "Electoral College". [[California Secretary of State]].
  27. (20 May 2019). "The Electoral College".
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