2015 Valencian regional election

Background

The 2011 regional election had resulted in the People's Party (PP) increasing its absolute majority despite losing votes, thanks to the collapse of the Socialist Party of the Valencian Country vote, which scored its worst historical result up to that point. However, after 16 years of uninterrupted rule, corruption scandals involving the PP began to erupt. Two months after the election, President Francisco Camps resigned because of his alleged implication in the Gürtel corruption scandal, being replaced as president of the Valencian Government by Alberto Fabra. The following years saw the unveiling of a series of corruption scandals that rocked the PP, involving party deputies, mayors, local councillors, two Corts's speakers and former regional president José Luis Olivas. At one point, about 20% of the party members in the Corts Valencianes—11 out of 55—were involved in various corruption cases; a joke popularized at the time said that they would become the third political force in the Corts Valencianes, only behind PP and PSOE, if they were to form their own parliamentary group. The regional party leadership also had to cope with accusations of illegal financing, as well as possible embezzlement offences in the additional costs incurred in the Formula 1 project and Pope Benedict XVI's 2006 visit to Valencia.

At the same time, the regional government had to deal with the effects of an ongoing financial crisis. Despite the regional decision to ask for a bailout from the central government headed by Mariano Rajoy in July 2012, its economic situation remained severe. Fabra's government had to close down RTVV, the regional public television broadcasting channel, because of financing issues, a decision which was met with widespread protests.

The 2014 European Parliament election resulted in enormous losses for the PP, which, in the largest Valencian cities, lost almost half of its votes in percentage terms compared to the previous elections. Both the economic crisis and corruption scandals helped hasten the party's decline, which had already seen support drop in opinion polls since 2011. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party found itself unable to gain any of the PP's lost support and lost votes too, to the benefit of until then minority parties such as United Left of the Valencian Country (EUPV), Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), Citizens (C's), Compromís or the newly created Podemos party.

Overview

Under the 1982 Statute of Autonomy, the Corts Valencianes were the unicameral legislature of the Valencian Community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.

Electoral system

Voting for the Corts was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote. Additionally, Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote ().

The Corts Valencianes were entitled to a minimum of 99 seats, with the electoral law setting its size at that number. All members were elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in any given province did not exceed three times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied regionally.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Corts constituency was entitled the following seats:

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Corts Valencianes expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the scheduled date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the DOGV no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 21 June 2015.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

The Corts Valencianes were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015 with the publication of the dissolution decree in the DOGV, setting election day for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 11 June.

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.

;Color key:

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a general election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Government formation

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

;Other

Bibliography

References

1. (21 July 2011). "Francisco Camps dimite". [[El Mundo (Spain).
2. Prats, Jaime. (21 July 2011). "Alberto Fabra sustituye a Camps al frente del PP y de la Generalitat". [[El País]].
3. Ferrandis, Joaquín. (29 June 2013). "La presencia de un 20% de diputados imputados divide al PP valenciano". El País.
4. Molto, Daniel. (17 September 2014). "El juez imputa de nuevo a Castedo por beneficiar al constructor Ortiz". El Mundo.
5. (10 January 2015). "El PP tiene medio centenar de imputados en cargos municipales". El País.
6. Nieto, Juan. (10 November 2014). "Juan Cotino, imputado por los contratos con Gürtel para la visita del Papa". El Mundo.
7. (2 June 2014). "Olivas, imputado por delito fiscal en el asesoramiento de Vicente Cotino". El Mundo.
8. Balín, Mateo. (9 June 2013). "Los imputados del PP valenciano serían la tercera fuerza en las Cortes". [[Hoy (Extremadura).
9. Zafra, Ignacio. (16 December 2014). "El juez procesa a 19 personas por la financiación ilegal del PP valenciano". El País.
10. Giménez, Miguel. (11 August 2014). "La corrupción en el PP valenciano, de la A a la Z". [[eldiario.es]].
11. Ferrandis, Joaquín. (16 November 2014). "La hoguera valenciana de las corrupciones del PP". El País.
12. (20 July 2012). "La Comunitat Valenciana pide el rescate". Público.
13. Terrasa, Rodrigo. (5 November 2013). "Fabra cierra la televisión valenciana tras tumbar la Justicia el ERE". El Mundo.
14. Maroto, Voro. (4 December 2013). "Las protestas por el cierre de Canal 9 cercan a Alberto Fabra y aíslan al PP". eldiario.es.
15. (25 May 2014). "El PP se desploma en las grandes ciudades y da la llave a los minoritarios". El País.
16. {{harvp. Statute. 1982
17. {{harvp. LECV. 1987
18. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
19. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
20. Reig Pellicer, Naiara. (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote".
21. {{harvp. Statute. 1982
22. {{harvp. LECV. 1987
23. (30 March 2015). "Decreto 4/2015, de 30 de marzo, del presidente de la Generalitat, de disolución de les Corts y de convocatoria de elecciones a las mismas".
24. {{harvp. LECV. 1987
25. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
26. {{harvp. Statute. 1982
27. {{harvp. LECV. 1987
28. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
29. {{harvp. Statute. 1982
30. {{harvp. Statute. 1982
31. Lozano, Carles. "Eleccions a les Corts Valencianes (des de 1983)".
32. {{harvp. LECV. 1987
33. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
34. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
35. Ferrandis, Joaquín. (19 May 2012). "Fabra es elegido presidente del PP regional con el 81,3% de los votos". El País.
36. (4 November 2013). "Alberto Fabra despeja dudas: será candidato a la Generalitat en el 2015". [[La Vanguardia]].
37. (5 March 2015). "Alberto Fabra será el candidato del PP a presidir la Generalitat y Barberá a la alcaldía de Valencia". [[RTVE]].
38. (31 March 2012). "Ximo Puig, nuevo líder de los socialistas valencianos con más del 60% de los apoyos". [[Cadena SER]].
39. Beltran, Adolf. (9 March 2014). "Ximo Puig se impone con un 69% en las primarias de los socialistas". El País.
40. Maroto, Voro. (8 November 2014). "Blanco gana unas primarias "fraternales" y será el candidato de EU a la Generalitat". eldiario.es.
41. (29 March 2015). "EUPV irá a las autonómicas en coalición con Els Verds, ERPV y AS". [[Europa Press]].
42. Fernández, Alejandro. (2 February 2015). "Mònica Oltra recibe más de 22.000 apoyos para optar a presidir el Consell". Información.
43. Játiva, Juan Manuel. (15 February 2015). "Antonio Montiel, nuevo secretario general autonómico de Podemos". El País.
44. (1 April 2015). "Antonio Montiel gana las primarias de Podemos y será candidato a la Generalitat". [[ABC (newspaper).
45. (2 February 2015). "Carolina Punset, candidata de Ciudadanos a la Generalitat". El Mundo.
46. (15 May 2015). "Informe de los resultados recogidos en el sondeo de opinión para las Elecciones Municipales de Alboraya, L'Eliana y Gandia, y autonómicas de la Comunidad Valenciana. Realizado por la Unidad de Investigación". GIPEyOP.
47. (9 June 2015). "Acuerdo de 3 de junio de 2015 de la Junta Electoral de la Comunitat Valenciana, por el que se publican los resultados finales y la relación de diputados y diputadas electos en las elecciones a Les Corts celebradas el día 24 de mayo de 2015". [[Diari Oficial de la Comunitat Valenciana.
48. "Resultados electorales. Datos electorales - Elecciones autonómicas: 2015". [[Corts Valencianes]].