2015 Catalan regional election

Background

Secessionist process

Main article: Catalan independence#Recent events

After the 2012 regional election resulted in Convergence and Union (CiU) unexpectedly losing seats, President Mas was placed in a difficult political position, as he fell 18 seats short of the absolute majority. He was forced to sign an agreement with Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), in which the latter pledged to support the government, albeit without entering a formal coalition, in return for a faster process to obtain the independence of Catalonia.

On 23 January 2013, the Parliament of Catalonia adopted the Declaration of Sovereignty and of the Right to Decide of the Catalan People, which stated that "The people of Catalonia have—by reason of democratic legitimacy—the character of a sovereign political and legal entity." This declaration was provisionally suspended by the Constitutional Court of Spain on 8 May 2013, and on 25 March 2014 the same court declared that it was void and unconstitutional due to the fact that the Spanish Constitution of 1978 makes the Spanish people as a whole the only subject of sovereignty. At the same time, opinion polls began to show ERC topping the voters' preferences for the first time since the 1932 Catalan election, with the CiU vote declining as a result of the 2012 election backlash, but also because of Mas' management of the economic crisis and the involvement of several CiU leading figures in several corruption scandals. Among those involved was party founder Jordi Pujol, charged in a tax fraud scandal related to an undeclared inheritance in Andorra, accompanied by allegations of bribery, embezzlement, breach of trust, influence peddling, forgery of documents and money laundering crimes allegedly committed during his time as president of Catalonia.

On 12 December 2013, the Government of Catalonia announced that a non-binding referendum on the independence issue would be held on 9 November 2014, for the purpose of giving independence leaders a political mandate to negotiate with the Government of Spain. Mariano Rajoy's government stated shortly after its intention to block such a referendum, which it considered unconstitutional and not within the competences of the Autonomous Community.

In spite of this, a not legally sanctioned referendum was held as scheduled, with over 80% voting for independence, albeit on a low turnout of around 40%. Independence parties considered the result a success. Artur Mas explained in a public act on 25 November his plan to reach independence, proposing calling an extraordinary regional election—turned into an alternative vote on independence—at some point during 2015, on the condition that ERC agreed to join a common list with his party to stand together at the polls. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras agreed with most of the plan but initially refused such a joint list, threatening to break its government pact with CiU in order to force an election in early 2015. After weeks of calibrated brinkmanship from both sides, with CDC pushing for a joint candidature to cover for its forecasted loss of support and ERC refusing to run with Artur Mas as presidential candidate, both parties finally reached an agreement, and on 14 January 2015, Mas announced that a snap regional election would be held on 27 September that same year, with the intention to turn in into the true plebiscite on independence.

Aside from the pact to hold an extraordinary election, the agreement also included to complete state structures as a basic element to culminate the process of "national transition" as well as negotiation of budgets. Mas and Junqueras also apologized for the rarefied political climate between the pro-independence parties in the negotiations that had taken place during the weeks prior to the announcement.

The Spanish government, in response to the election announcement eight months ahead of the scheduled date, accused Mas of having "no interest in attending the Catalan people's problems, nor it has any capacity to solve them". The People's Party (PP), Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) also criticized the announcement.

CiU breakup

Tension within both parties forming the CiU federation had reached an all-time high in June 2015 due to differences between the positions the Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC) leadership and Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) leader Artur Mas took over the sovereignty process. CDC was in favour of outright independence even if it meant breaking the established Spanish legality, while UDC was against doing it without a successful negotiation with the Spanish Government. As a result, a vote was held on 14 June 2015 between UDC members, asking whether the party should commit itself to continue with the process but establishing several conditions—including not violating the legality in force through unilateral independence declarations—or starting the constituent processes at the margin of legal norms. The first option, supported by UDC leaders and contrary to the signed agreements between CDC, ERC and sovereignty entities, was approved by UDC members with a narrow 50.9% to 46.1% choosing to stand at the side of CDC. After this, CDC issued an ultimatum to UDC for the latter to decide within "two or three days" whether it committed itself to the independence plan. On 17 June, after a meeting of the UDC leadership, it was announced that the party was withdrawing all three of its members from the Government of the Generalitat of Catalonia, although they agreed to maintain parliamentary stability until the end of the legislature. That same day at night, the CDC national executive committee met and in a press conference the next day confirmed that UDC and CDC would not run together in the 2015 regional election, and that the political project of the CiU federation was over, signalling the end of 37 years of cooperation between both parties as Convergence and Union, a coalition which had dominated Catalan politics since the 1980s.

Run up to election

On 3 August 2015, Catalan president Artur Mas signed the election decree and highlighted the extraordinariness of the proposal's background, which nonetheless did not mention the word plebiscite. The President justified the extraordinary meaning of the election after having unsuccessfully tried to negotiate a legal and agreed-to referendum with the Government of Spain. Mas, however, did not mention how much support did he considered necessary for proceeding with the independence process. Only pro-independence parties recognized the plebiscitary character of the election, with other parties arguing that—acknowledging the election's importance—it still was an election to the Parliament of Catalonia as many others had been held in the past. The PP, PSC and C's, however, hinted on the possibility of a post-election pact to curb the independence process. The Spanish Government said it would keep a close watch closely the legality of the whole election process while demanding neutrality from Mas. Mariano Rajoy stated: "There won't be a plebiscitary election, as there wasn't a referendum", in relation to the 9 November 2014 vote. Several parties and media questioned the legality of holding the Free Way demonstration on 11 September, as it coincided with the start date of the election campaign.

Overview

Under the 2006 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Catalonia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure came regulated under transitory provisions, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law.

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote, nor being legally incapacitated. Additionally, Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote ().

The Parliament of Catalonia was entitled to a minimum of 100 and a maximum of 150 seats, with electoral provisions setting its size at 135. All members were elected in four multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied in each constituency. The use of the electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the scheduled date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 25 November 2012, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 25 November 2016. The election decree was required to be published in the DOGC no later than 1 November 2016, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 25 December 2016.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 4 August 2015 with the publication of the dissolution decree in the DOGC, setting election day for 27 September.

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties, federations or alliances that had not obtained a parliamentary mandate at the preceding election were required to secure the signature of at least 0.1 percent of electors in the aforementioned constituencies. Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and Left Movement (MES) agreed by mid-July 2015 to run together under the Junts pel Sí () joint separatist list, with support from the pro-independence Catalan National Assembly (ANC), Òmnium and the also separatist Municipalities' Association for Independence (AMI). Artur Mas was named as the agreed presidential candidate, even though, as a result of balance of power negotiations between ERC and CDC, he was placed 4th in the electoral ticket. Instead, the list was to be headed by three independent figures: Raül Romeva, former MEP for ICV who had left the party for not supporting independence; Carme Forcadell, former ANC president and Muriel Casals, Òmnium chairwoman. Oriol Junqueras would follow in 5th place.

The coalition was thus scheduled to comprise the ruling centre-right CDC; its supporting centre-left partner in parliament, ERC; DC and MES, pro-independence splits from UDC and PSC, respectively; and members from separatist sectors of the civil society. The Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), which had also participated in the negotiations to form the unitary list, eventually refused on the grounds that "it was formed by politicians"—in reference to CDC and ERC's strong presence in the coalition's lists—and decided to run separately.

After the success of Ada Colau's Barcelona en Comú platform in the 2015 Barcelona municipal election, its member parties Podemos, Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV) and United and Alternative Left (EUiA) entered talks for coalescing into a similar, regional-wide coalition for the September election to run as an alternative to Mas' independence plan. By 15 July 2015, negotiations between the parties were already close to success, and it was agreed that they would stand together in the Catalunya Sí que es Pot electoral platform (). On 23 July, Lluís Rabell was presented as the platform's candidate for the regional premiership, while ecologist party Equo announced its intention to join the coalition on 29 July.

Campaign

Party slogans

Party stances

Election debates

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

;Color key:

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

;Color key:

Voter turnout

The table below shows registered voter turnout on election day, without including non-resident citizens.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Government formation

Following the failure to choose a leader in January 2016 in which 1,515 CUP members voted for Mas and the same number voted against him, the assembly was due to be dissolved on 10 January and a new election called in March. Rajoy supported the new election on the grounds that it could "quash" calls for independence.

A last minute deal was struck between Junts pel Sí and Popular Unity Candidacy to ensure a separatist government, although without Mas as president. As a result, Carles Puigdemont assumed office on 12 January 2016 as Catalan president after his investiture was approved by the Parliament on 10 January.

2016 motion of confidence

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

;Other

Bibliography

References

1. (14 January 2015). "Mas gana el pulso a ERC y convoca elecciones para el 27 de septiembre". [[El País]].
2. (25 March 2014). "El TC tumba por unanimidad la declaración soberanista de Mas". [[ABC (newspaper).
3. (16 December 2014). "La jueza cita como imputado a Jordi Pujol por el dinero en Andorra". [[El Periódico de Catalunya]].
4. (12 December 2013). "Spain to block Catalonia independence referendum". [[BBC News]].
5. (12 November 2014). "Junqueras rechaza la lista unitaria pero propone un programa común". El País.
6. (24 November 2014). "Mas busca independientes para diluir las siglas de CiU de su lista electoral". El País.
7. (14 January 2015). "La culminació de les estructures d'estat, una altra part de l'acord". [[Corporació Catalana de Mitjans Audiovisuals.
8. (14 January 2015). "La negociació dels pressupostos, part de l'acord entre Mas i Junqueras". CCMA.
9. (14 January 2015). "Mas demana disculpes pel clima de les darreres setmanes". CCMA.
10. (14 January 2015). "El govern espanyol diu que Mas no té 'ni interès ni capacitat' per a resoldre els problemes dels catalans". VilaWeb.
11. (15 January 2015). ""Frau, tragèdia, poca seriositat...": Madrid reacciona a l'anunci d'eleccions a Catalunya". [[Ara (newspaper).
12. (21 February 2015). "Unió consultará a sus militantes para definirse sobre el proceso soberanista". El País.
13. (14 June 2015). "Unió somete a votación el compromiso con el plan soberanista". El País.
14. (14 June 2015). "Duran logra un ajustado apoyo para condicionar el plan de Mas". El País.
15. (15 June 2015). "Mas da tres días a Duran para que decida si apoya la independencia". El País.
16. (17 June 2015). "Unió sale del Gobierno de Mas como rechazo al plan de independencia". El País.
17. (18 June 2015). "CiU se desintegra: 'El proyecto político de la federación se ha acabado'". El Mundo.
18. (18 June 2015). "La ruptura de CiU da vía libre a Mas para volcarse en su plan soberanista". El País.
19. (3 August 2015). "Artur Mas firma el decreto de convocatoria de las elecciones del 27S". La Vanguardia.
20. (3 August 2015). "Mas convoca el 27-S sin decir qué apoyo necesita para la independencia". El País.
21. (6 August 2015). "Los constitucionalistas catalanes también encaran el 27-S con estrategia de plebiscito". Noticias de Gipuzkoa.
22. (3 August 2015). "El Gobierno pide neutralidad a Mas arremetiendo contra su candidatura". El País.
23. (31 July 2015). "Rajoy advierte a Mas: "No habrá elecciones plebiscitarias como tampoco hubo referéndum"". [[Europa Press (news agency).
24. {{harvp. Statute. 2006
25. {{harvp. Statute. 1979
26. {{harvp. Statute. 2006
27. {{harvp. Statute. 2006
28. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
29. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
30. Reig Pellicer, Naiara. (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote".
31. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
32. Gallagher, Michael. (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". [[Trinity College Dublin]].
33. (3 August 2015). "Decreto 174/2015, de 3 de agosto, de convocatoria de elecciones al Parlamento de Cataluña y de su disolución".
34. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
35. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
36. {{harvp. Statute. 2006
37. {{harvp. Statute. 2006
38. Lozano, Carles. "Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya (des de 1980)".
39. Lozano, Carles. "Parlament de Catalunya: grups parlamentaris (1980 – ...)".
40. Lozano, Carles. "Diputats del Parlament de Catalunya (des de 1932)".
41. "X legislatura". [[Parliament of Catalonia]].
42. (29 January 2015). "Marina Geli deja el grupo parlamentario del PSC pero seguirá como diputada no adscrita". La Vanguardia.
43. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
44. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
45. (18 June 2015). "Rull y Junqueras anuncian un principio de acuerdo Convergència-ERC sobre la lista unitaria". El Periódico de Catalunya.
46. Rubio, Cristina. (15 July 2015). "Mas doblega a ERC y el 27-S liderará la lista independentista". El Mundo.
47. Masreal, Fidel. (24 July 2015). "El Govern y ERC desautorizan a Romeva para blindar a Mas". El Periódico de Catalunya.
48. (13 July 2014). "Miquel Iceta, nuevo primer secretario del PSC con el 85,04% de los votos". RTVE.
49. Mondelo, Víctor. (25 July 2015). "Iceta, candidato del PSC: 'Basta de engaños, del 27-S no saldrá la independencia'". El Mundo.
50. García Sastre, Daniel. (28 July 2015). "Rajoy elige a Albiol para plantar cara a Mas el 27-S". El Mundo.
51. Tomàs, Neus. (26 June 2015). "La izquierda alternativa ya negocia una alianza electoral para el 27-S". El Periódico de Catalunya.
52. Piñol, Ángels. (16 July 2015). "La candidatura de confluencia se llamará 'Catalunya sí que es pot'". El País.
53. Ríos, Pere. (24 July 2015). "El líder vecinal Lluís Rabell será el candidato de Catalunya sí que es pot". El País.
54. (20 June 2015). "Arrimadas se presentará por Cataluña y despeja el camino de Rivera hacia Madrid". El Confidencial.
55. (3 July 2015). "Albert Rivera, proclamado candidato de Ciudadanos a la presidencia del Gobierno sin necesidad de primarias". RTVE.
56. (11 July 2015). "La CUP ratifica presentarse bajo el nombre CUP-Crida Constituent a las elecciones del 27S". Europa Press.
57. González Liste, Ana. (30 July 2015). "El periodista Antonio Baños liderará la candidatura de la CUP". El País.
58. (10 August 2015). "La CUP ratifica al periodista Antonio Baños como candidato". El Mundo.
59. Roger, Maiol. (20 June 2015). "Unió planta cara a Mas y concurrirá en solitario a las elecciones del 27-S". El País.
60. Ríos, Pere. (26 June 2015). "Duran carga contra Mas y CDC por no negociar para evitar la ruptura". El País.
61. (15 July 2015). "El Consell Nacional de ERC ratifica la lista unitaria con CDC por asentimiento". La Vanguardia.
62. (15 July 2015). "Raül Romeva, Forcadell y Casals encabezarán la lista de Mas del 27-S". El Mundo.
63. (15 July 2015). "Mas doblega a ERC y el 27-S liderará la lista independentista". El Mundo.
64. (14 July 2015). "David Fernández: "La última propuesta imposibilitaba cualquier acuerdo" por la lista unitaria". La Vanguardia.
65. (25 June 2015). "Podemos e ICV ultiman una lista como alternativa a Mas para el 27-S". El País.
66. (25 June 2015). "Els partits del 'Sí se puede' sí que fan candidatura unitària". elSingular.cat.
67. (15 July 2015). "'Catalunya Sí que es Pot' integrará a Podem, ICV-EUiA y Procés el 27-S". Público.
68. (15 July 2015). "Catalunya Sí que es Pot, el nom de la confluència d'esquerres pel 27-S". Ara.
69. (23 July 2015). "El líder vecinal Lluís Rabell será el candidato de Catalunya sí que es pot". El País.
70. (29 July 2015). "Equo se integra en la confluencia de izquierdas Catalunya Sí que es pot". El Periódico de Catalunya.
71. Masreal, Fidel. (8 September 2015). "'El vot de la teva vida', lema de Junts pel Sí". El Periódico de Catalunya.
72. Masreal, Fidel. (8 September 2015). ""El voto de tu vida", lema de Junts pel Sí". El Periódico de Catalunya.
73. (11 September 2015). "Arranca la campaña para el 27S: las elecciones catalanas más decisivas". El Economista.
74. (25 August 2015). "'Per una Catalunya millor en una Espanya diferent. Tenim solucions', lema del PSC cap al 27-S". El Punt Avui.
75. Romero, Juanma. (13 September 2015). "El PSC afronta el 27-S atacando a Podemos por su "ambigüedad" e igualando PP y C's". El Confidencial.
76. Julve, Rafa. (7 September 2015). "'Units guanyem. Plantem cara', eslògan del PP per al 27-S". El Periódico de Catalunya.
77. Font, Marc. (10 September 2015). ""La Catalunya de la gente", cartel de campaña de Catalunya Sí Que es Pot". Público.
78. (24 August 2015). ""Una nova Catalunya per a tothom", l'eslògan de campanya de C's pel 27-S". Nació Digital.
79. Terrassa, Rodrigo. (28 September 2015). "Seis momentos para saber qué es la CUP". El Mundo.
80. Hinojosa, Silvia. (11 September 2015). "Unió ofrece 'seny' para reconstruir el antiguo espacio moderado de CiU". La Vanguardia.
81. (18 September 2015). "Debate vibrante con la UE como motivo de discordia". La Vanguardia.
82. (17 September 2015). "Especial eleccions a Catalunya 2015 - Debat Electoral". RTVE.
83. (20 September 2015). "El Debat Electoral". CCMA.
84. (20 September 2015). "'El Debat' de laSexta calienta la última semana de campaña electoral en Cataluña". laSexta.
85. (23 September 2015). "El debate Margallo-Junqueras, un duelo de altura por Europa". La Vanguardia.
86. "Resultats electorals. Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya 2015. Catalunya". [[Generalitat de Catalunya.
87. (6 November 2015). "Acuerdo de 29 de octubre de 2015, de la Junta Electoral Central, por el que se ordena la publicación del resumen de los resultados de las elecciones al Parlamento de Cataluña convocadas por el Decreto 174/2015, de 3 de agosto, y celebradas el 27 de septiembre de 2015, conforme a las actas de escrutinio general y de proclamación de electos remitidas por las juntas electorales provinciales de la Comunidad Autónoma de Cataluña". Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia.
88. (28 December 2015). "Catalonia pro-independence party fails to agree on new leader". Webindia123.
89. (3 January 2016). "Catalonia faces new election as leftist CUP rejects Mas". BBC News.
90. (9 January 2016). "Artur Mas Steps Down And Announces 11th-Hour Separatist Deal In Catalonia". The Spain Report.
91. (9 January 2016). "Junts pel Sí i la CUP tanquen un acord per a dur endavant la legislatura". VilaWeb.
92. (9 January 2016). "Acord entre Junts pel Sí i la CUP amb Carles Puigdemont de president i sense Mas". CCMA.