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2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia

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2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia

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FieldValue
election_name2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia
countryWest Virginia
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2008 United States Senate election in West Virginia
previous_year2008
next_election2020 United States Senate election in West Virginia
next_year2020
election_dateNovember 4, 2014
image_sizex150px
image1File:Shelley moore capito (cropped).jpg
nominee1**Shelley Moore Capito**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**281,820**
percentage1**62.12%**
image2File:NatalieTennant7 (cropped).jpg
nominee2Natalie Tennant
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2156,360
percentage234.47%
map_image
map_size250px
map_caption**Moore Capito:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionJay Rockefeller
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionShelley Moore Capito
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

The 2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election was held in West Virginia after elections in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012. This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election.

Incumbent Democratic senator Jay Rockefeller decided to retire rather than run for reelection for a sixth term. The Democrats nominated Secretary of State of West Virginia Natalie Tennant and the Republicans nominated U.S. Representative Shelley Moore Capito. It was the thirteenth U.S. Senate election that involved two major party female nominees in U.S. history.

Capito defeated Tennant and became the first female senator elected in West Virginia's history as well as the first Republican elected to the Senate from West Virginia since 1956, and their victory in this seat since 1942. The results of this election were a near complete flip from 2008, in which Democrat Jay Rockefeller received 64% of the vote. This was the first open-seat non-special election since 1984.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Dennis Melton
  • Natalie Tennant, secretary of state of West Virginia and candidate for governor in 2011
  • David Wamsley, developer

Withdrew

  • Sheirl Fletcher, former Republican state delegate and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008, 2010 and 2012

Declined

  • Ralph Baxter, attorney and CEO of Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe
  • Mike Callaghan, former assistant United States Attorney and former chairman of the West Virginia Democratic Party
  • Gaston Caperton, former governor
  • Nick Casey, former chairman of the West Virginia Democratic Party (running for the U.S. House)
  • Robin Davis, justice for the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia
  • Glen Gainer III, West Virginia state auditor (running for WV-01)
  • Booth Goodwin, United States attorney for the Southern District of West Virginia
  • Carte Goodwin, former U.S. senator
  • Walt Helmick, West Virginia agriculture commissioner
  • Jim Humphreys, former state senator and nominee for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district in 2000 and 2002
  • Jeff Kessler, president of the West Virginia Senate and candidate for governor in 2011
  • Corey Palumbo, state senator
  • John Perdue, West Virginia state treasurer and candidate for governor in 2011
  • Nick Preservati, attorney
  • Nick Rahall, U.S. representative
  • Jay Rockefeller, incumbent U.S. senator
  • Allen Tackett, former adjutant general of the West Virginia National Guard
  • Rick Thompson, West Virginia Secretary of Veterans Affairs, former speaker of the West Virginia House of Delegates and candidate for governor in 2011
  • Earl Ray Tomblin, governor of West Virginia
  • Erik Wells, state senator
  • Bob Wise, former governor

Endorsements

Individuals

  • Heidi Heitkamp, U.S. senator from North Dakota
  • Jeff Kessler, president of the West Virginia Senate and candidate for governor in 2011
  • Carole King, singer
  • Joe Manchin, U.S. senator
  • Tim Miley, speaker of the West Virginia House of Delegates
  • Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States
  • Jay Rockefeller, incumbent U.S. senator
  • Allen Tackett, former adjutant general of the West Virginia National Guard
  • Earl Ray Tomblin, governor of West Virginia
  • Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts

Organizations

  • American Federation of Teachers
  • Council for a Livable World
  • Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
  • EMILY's List
  • Italian American Democratic Leadership Council
  • United Mine Workers of America (UMWA)
  • West Virginia AFL-CIO
  • West Virginia Education Association
  • Women's Political Committee

Newspapers

  • The Charleston Gazette

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSheirl
FletcherDavid
HarlessNatalie
TennantDavid
WamsleyOtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 19–22, 2013600± 4%8%3%**51%**4%34%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRalph
BaxterRobin
DavisNick
PreservatiNatalie
TennantOtherUndecided
MBE ResearchMay 1–2, 20132071%12%1%**40%**38%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRobin
DavisCarte
GoodwinNick
RahallOtherUndecided
Harper PollingJanuary 21, 2013579± 4.07%17%8%**38%**37%

Results

Results by county

| | | | ]]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Larry Butcher
  • Shelley Moore Capito, U.S. representative
  • Matthew Dodrill

Withdrew

  • Rick LeMasters, retired Marine officer and state employee
  • Pat McGeehan, former state delegate and former Air Force Intelligence officer and captain (running for House of Delegates)
  • Scott Regan, Democratic candidate for the state senate in 2010
  • Edwin Vanover, former Bramwell Police Chief and Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates in 2012

Declined

  • Bill Maloney, businessman and nominee for governor in 2011 and 2012
  • David McKinley, U.S. representative
  • Patrick Morrisey, attorney general of West Virginia
  • John Raese, businessman, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1984, 2006, 2010 and 2012 and candidate for governor in 1988

Endorsements

Politicians

  • Lauren Ellifritz, Mineral County clerk
  • Jerry Whisner, Mineral County commissioner

Organizations

  • Americans for Legal Immigration
  • Charleston Regional Chamber of Commerce
  • Maggie's List
  • NFIB SAFE Trust
  • NRA-Political Victory Fund
  • United States Chamber of Commerce
  • WESPAC – WV Medical Association
  • West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
  • West Virginia Farm PAC
  • West Virginia Manufacturers Association
  • West Virginians for Coal
  • West Virginians for Liberty
  • West Virginians for Life PAC

Newspapers

  • Moorefield Examiner

Individuals

  • Donald Trump, businessman

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorShelley
Moore CapitoRick
LemastersPat
McGeehanPatrick
MorriseyScott
ReganEdwin
VanoverUndecided
Harper PollingJanuary 21, 2013462± 4.56%**73%**10%18%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 19–22, 2013348± 5.3%**72%**5%4%1%2%17%
Harper PollingSeptember 24–25, 2013354± 5.21%**77%**7%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorShelley
Moore CapitoSomeone more
conservativeUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 19–22, 2013348± 5.3%**65%**21%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorShelley
Moore CapitoDavid
McKinleyUndecided
Harper PollingJanuary 21, 2013462± 4.56%**70.5%**14.75%14.75%

Results

Independents and third parties

Candidates

Declared

  • Bob Henry Baber (Mountain Party), writer, former mayor of Richwood, nominee for governor of West Virginia in 2011 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012
  • John Buckley (Libertarian Party), attorney, retired law clerk, former Virginia state delegate, and cousin of William F. Buckley, Jr.
  • Phil Hudok (Constitution Party), nominee for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district in 2010

Withdrawn

  • Martin Staunton (Independent), former TV anchor (moved to Georgia)

General election

Debates

A televised debate between Tennant and Capito was held on October 7 in Charleston.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorNatalie
Tennant (D)Shelley Moore
Capito (R)OtherUndecided
West Virginia PollAugust 15–22, 2013400± 4.9%40%**45%**15%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%36%**50%**14%
Harper PollingSeptember 24–25, 2013640± 3.87%34%**51%**15%
Clarity CampaignsJanuary 29–30, 20141,727± 2.35%39%**45%**16%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 19–20, 2014500± 4.5%35%**49%**4%12%
Vox Populi PollingApril 16–17, 2014571± 4.1%33%**49%**19%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 14–15, 2014750± 4%39%**48%**5%9%
West Virginia PollMay 19–22, 2014400± 4.9%38%**49%**13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20141,750± 2.7%40%**47%**1%11%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 19–20, 2014750± 4%33%**50%**17%
West Virginia PollAugust 15–23, 2014401± 4.9%37%**54%**9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18 – September 2, 20141,284± 4%32%**55%**1%12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20 – October 1, 20141,066± 4%33%**56%**1%9%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 30 – October 1, 2014750± 4%39%**50%**3%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 2014877± 5%34%**56%**0%10%

With Davis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRobin
Davis (D)Shelley Moore
Capito (R)OtherUndecided
Harper PollingJanuary 21, 20131,444± 2.58%24%**51%**25%
MBE ResearchMay 1–2, 2013406± 4.87%32%**51%**18%

With Fletcher

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSheirl
Fletcher (D)Shelley Moore
Capito (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%26%**54%**20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSheirl
Fletcher (D)Pat
McGeehan (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%24%**27%****48%**

With Goodwin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorCarte
Goodwin (D)Shelley Moore
Capito (R)OtherUndecided
Harper PollingJanuary 21, 20131,444± 2.58%19%**53%**28%

With Rahall

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorNick
Rahall (D)Shelley Moore
Capito (R)OtherUndecided
Harper PollingJanuary 21, 20131,444± 2.58%32%**50%**18%

With Rockefeller

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJay
Rockefeller (D)Shelley Moore
Capito (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 2, 2011932± 3.2%44%**48%**7%
Repass & PartnersAugust 22–25, 2012401± 4.9%44%**48%**8%

With Tennant

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorNatalie
Tennant (D)Pat
McGeehan (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%**42%**32%26%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Barbour (largest city: Philippi)
  • Cabell (largest city: Huntington)
  • Calhoun (largest city: Grantsville)
  • Clay (largest city: Clay)
  • Gilmer (largest city: Glenville)
  • Greenbrier (largest city: Lewisburg)
  • Hancock (largest city: Weirton)
  • Hardy (largest city: Moorefield)
  • Jackson (largest city: Ravenswood)
  • Jefferson (largest city: Charles Town)
  • Lewis (largest city: Weston)
  • Marshall (largest city: Moundsville)
  • Mason (largest city: Point Pleasant)
  • Mercer (largest city: Bluefield)
  • Monongalia (largest city: Morgantown)
  • Monroe (largest city: Peterstown)
  • Nicholas (largest city: Summersville)
  • Ohio (largest city: Wheeling)
  • Pendleton (largest city: Franklin)
  • Pleasants (largest city: St. Marys)
  • Pocahontas (largest city: Marlinton)
  • Raleigh (largest city: Beckley)
  • Randolph (largest city: Elkins)
  • Roane (largest city: Spencer)
  • Summers (largest city: Hinton)
  • Taylor (largest city: Grafton)
  • Tucker (largest city: Parsons)
  • Tyler (largest city: Paden City)
  • Wayne (largest city: Kenova)
  • Wetzel (largest city: New Martinsville)
  • Harrison (largest city: Clarksburg)
  • Kanawha (largest city: Charleston)
  • Lincoln (largest city: Hamlin)
  • Wyoming (largest city: Mullens)
  • Brooke (largest borough: Wellsburg)
  • Fayette (largest city: Fayetteville)
  • Logan (largest borough: Logan)
  • Mingo (largest borough: Williamson)
  • Boone (largest city: Madison)
  • Braxton (largest town: Sutton)
  • Marion (largest city: Fairmont)
  • McDowell (largest city: Welch)
  • Webster (largest town: Webster Springs)
  • Berkeley (largest municipality: Martinsburg)
  • Hampshire (largest municipality: Romney)
  • Mineral (largest municipality: Keyser)
  • Morgan (largest municipality: Berkeley Springs)
  • Upshur (largest municipality: Buckhannon)
  • Wirt (largest municipality: Elizabeth)
  • Putnam (largest municipality: Hurricane)
  • Preston (largest municipality: Kingwood)
  • Wood (largest municipality: Parkersburg)

By congressional district

Moore Capito won all three congressional districts.

DistrictTennantMoore CapitoRepresentative
33.92%**62.19%**David McKinley
33.72%**63.13%**Alex Mooney
35.86%**60.94%**Evan Jenkins

References

References

  1. Ostermeier, Eric. (September 17, 2013). "West Virginia 2014 US Senate Race to Feature Rare Matchup". Smart Politics.
  2. (November 4, 2014). "Republican Shelley Moore Capito Wins Senate Seat in WV". ABC News.
  3. Boucher, Dave. (January 25, 2014). "No surprises in U.S. Senate race". [[Charleston Gazette-Mail]].
  4. Boucher, Dave. (September 15, 2013). "Confirmed: Tennant announces Senate run Tuesday". [[Charleston Daily Mail]].
  5. Messina, Lawrence. (July 14, 2013). "2014 field growing in W.Va. federal races". [[Charleston Daily Mail]].
  6. (February 16, 2014). "Candidate listing by office". West Virginia Secretary of State.
  7. (June 3, 2013). "Preservati out of Senate race". WV Metro News.
  8. Ry Rivard. (November 27, 2012). "Fmr WV D Chair & #WV02 candidate Mike Callaghan (in email my inbox ate Monday) = interested in Senate if Jay doesn't run & House if Jay does".
  9. (January 15, 2013). "West Virginia: Caperton Says He Is Not Interested in Senate Seat". Roll Call.
  10. Boucher, Dave. (April 30, 2013). "Nick Casey launches 2014 US House run". [[Charleston Daily Mail]].
  11. (July 17, 2013). "Another Democrat passes on West Virginia Senate race". Washington Post.
  12. Ali, Ann. (November 8, 2013). "WV Auditor Glen Gainer announces run for Congress". [[The State Journal (West Virginia).
  13. Kercheval, Hoppy. (February 19, 2013). "2014 U.S. Senate race update". WVMetroNews.com.
  14. Wilson, Reid. (February 20, 2013). "Carte Goodwin out for 2014". WVMetroNews.com.
  15. Livingston, Abby. (January 11, 2013). "West Virginia: Democrats Begin Positioning to Run for Rockefeller's Seat". [[Roll Call]].
  16. Harold, Zack. (June 3, 2013). "Preservati Out of the 2014 U.S. Senate Race". Charleston Daily Mail.
  17. Livingston, Abby. (April 30, 2013). "Rahall Forgoes Senate Run". [[Roll Call]].
  18. (January 11, 2013). "West Virginia Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller won't run in 2014 - John Bresnahan". Politico.com.
  19. (July 29, 2013). "Allen Tackett not running for Jay Rockefeller's US Senate seat". [[Charleston Daily Mail]].
  20. (January 11, 2013). "Rockefeller to retire, giving GOP a prime pickup opportunity". The Hill.
  21. (January 15, 2013). "West Virginia Senate: Democrats Look for Winner". rothenbergpoliticalreport.com.
  22. (April 26, 2013). "State Sen. Erik Wells says he won't run for Congress". [[Charleston Daily Mail]].
  23. Nyden, Paul J.. (September 17, 2013). "Tennant announces run for Senate". [[The Charleston Gazette]].
  24. Boucher, Dave. (November 19, 2013). "Michelle Obama backs Natalie Tennant in US Senate race". [[Charleston Daily Mail]].
  25. Mattise, Jonathan. (June 23, 2014). "Sen. Elizabeth Warren to campaign for Tennant in W.V". [[The Charleston Gazette]].
  26. Harold, Zack. (November 26, 2013). "Tennant, Gainer, Rahall get early endorsements from AFT". [[Charleston Daily Mail]].
  27. "Natalie Tennant (D-WV) for Senate". Council for a Livable World.
  28. "Natalie Tennant". Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
  29. Jaffe, Alexandra. (September 26, 2013). "EMILY's List endorses Tennant for W.Va. Senate". [[The Hill (newspaper).
  30. (November 19, 2013). "The IADLC is proud to officially endorse...". Facebook.
  31. (September 2, 2014). "Miners union backs Dem in W.Va. Senate race". [[The Hill (newspaper).
  32. (2014). "2014 Primary Election COPE Endorsements". West Virginia AFL-CIO}}{{Dead link.
  33. (2014). "Natalie Tennant U.S. Senate, WV". Women's Political Committee}}{{Dead link.
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  38. (November 25, 2012). "Capito Will Challenge Rockefeller". Politicalwire.com.
  39. (January 25, 2014). "Elections - Candidate Detail". West Virginia Secretary of State.
  40. Johnson, Shauna. (August 10, 2013). "Tennant for U.S. Senate?". [[West Virginia MetroNews]].
  41. (May 30, 2013). "Former candidate Maloney not running for anything, launches think tank". [[The Charleston Gazette]].
  42. Livingston, Abby. (February 25, 2013). "West Virginia: McKinley Opts Not to Run Against Capito". [[Roll Call]].
  43. (January 12, 2013). "Nationwide, Republicans' Congressional Prospects Looking Bright for 2014". Sunshine State News.
  44. (November 26, 2012). "Capito Gets an Early Start on 2014 W.Va. Senate Race : Roll Call Politics". Rollcall.com.
  45. [https://twitter.com/CapitoforWV/status/363802789962461184/photo/1 Twitter / CapitoforWV: Great to see County Commissioner]
  46. [http://www.capitoforsenate.com/endorsements/] {{webarchive. link. (October 24, 2014)
  47. "Endorsements for Shelley Moore Capito - Capito for Senate".
  48. Donald J. Trump. (30 Jul 2014). "It's time for Mountain State to have a Senator who will stop Obama's war on coal. This November send DC a message, vote for @CapitoforWV!".
  49. [https://images.politico.com/global/2013/10/14/westvirginia.html Harper Polling]
  50. (July 31, 2014). "Mountain Party candidate makes 4 in Senate race". [[The Charleston Gazette]].
  51. Cardosi, Mandi. (June 12, 2014). "5 questions with Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate John Buckley". [[The State Journal (West Virginia).
  52. Winger, Richard. (August 22, 2014). "West Virginia Secretary of State Says Constitution Party Petition for U.S. Senate is Valid". Ballot Access News.
  53. Boucher, Dave. (April 25, 2013). "Former TV anchor to run for Senate". [[Charleston Daily Mail]].
  54. (August 14, 2014). "Capito, Tennant, others to debate in October". [[West Virginia MetroNews]].
  55. "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014".
  56. (November 3, 2014). "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks".
  57. "2014 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  58. "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics.
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  63. {{usurped
  64. [http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  65. [http://www.charlestondailymail.com/article/20140829/DM01/140829209 West Virginia Poll] {{Webarchive. link. (August 31, 2014)
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