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2012 United States Senate election in West Virginia

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FieldValue
election_name2012 United States Senate election in West Virginia
countryWest Virginia
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2010 United States Senate special election in West Virginia
previous_year2010 (special)
next_election2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia
next_year2018
election_date
image_size150x150px
turnout46.3% (voting eligible)
image1File:Joe Manchin official portrait 112th Congress.jpg
nominee1**Joe Manchin**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**399,908**
percentage1**60.57%**
image2File:John Raese.jpg
nominee2John Raese
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2240,787
percentage236.47%
map_image
map_caption**Manchin**:
**Raese**:
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionJoe Manchin
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionJoe Manchin
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Raese:
The 2012 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 6, 2012, to elect one of West Virginia's two members of the U.S. Senate for a six-year term. In a rematch of the 2010 special election, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Manchin won re-election to a first full term against the Republican nominee, John Raese. Notably, Manchin outperformed Barack Obama in the concurrent presidential election by 25.06 percentage points in vote share, and by 50.86 percentage points on margin. Manchin also won all but 3 counties, including 10 that he lost in 2010.

Background

Robert Byrd held this seat in the U.S. Senate from 1959 until his death on June 28, 2010, after serving in the U.S. House of Representatives since 1953, making him the longest-serving person in Congress. Byrd led his party in the Senate from 1977 to 1989, as Majority Leader or Minority Leader. Afterward, as the most senior Democrat in the Senate, he served as president pro tempore of the Senate whenever his party was in the majority, including at the time of his death.

After Byrd's death, West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant initially announced that a special election would not be held until the regular election for the six-year term in 2012. However, that special election was rescheduled to 2010 for it to coincide with the mid-term elections and to avoid having an interim appointee serving more than two years in the seat.

Governor Joe Manchin made a temporary appointment of Carte Goodwin to the vacant seat. Goodwin was later replaced by Manchin who won the 2010 special election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Sheirl Fletcher, former Republican state delegate and Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008 and 2010
  • Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator

Results

Republican primary

  • John Raese, perennial candidate

General election

Candidates

  • Bob Henry Baber (Mountain), former mayor of Richwood and candidate for governor in 2011
  • Joe Manchin (Democratic), incumbent U.S. senator
  • John Raese (Republican), businessman and perennial candidate

Campaign

Raese filed a rematch against Manchin, arguing that he now had more material to criticize Manchin with, including that Manchin lost his longtime endorsement from the organization West Virginians for Life because of his vote against defunding Planned Parenthood, the nation's largest abortion provider. Another example is how he is undecided about whether or not to support Obama's re-election campaign. Senior Obama campaign advisor David Axelrod commented in response, "His concern is about his own political well-being." In addition, he voted against U.S. Congressman Paul Ryan's Republican budget.

Raese wrote an op-ed in the Charleston Gazette-Mail, saying about Manchin, "Yes, he'll talk like a conservative and act like he's fiscally responsible to appeal to more moderate voters, but under that outward appearance of a lovable rube is the heart of a tax-and-spend liberal."

Raese continued to make controversial statements. In April 2012, he equated smoking bans with Adolf Hitler's yellow badge. He said "in Monongalia County now, I have to put a huge sticker on my buildings to say this is a smoke-free environment. This is brought to you by the government of Monongalia County. Okay? Remember Hitler used to put Star of David on everybody’s lapel, remember that? Same thing." That same day, he referred to President Franklin D. Roosevelt as "Fidel Roosevelt." Raese didn't apologize for his statements on Hitler saying "I am not going to be intimidated by a bunch of bullshit. I'm not apologizing to anybody or any organization. It's my perfect right to make a speech about meaningful subject matters in this country." He also called rocker Ted Nugent a "patriot" for criticizing President Barack Obama.

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Joe Manchin (D)$9,467,003$7,678,708$1,788,297$0
John Raese (R)$1,607,740$1,610,493$4,679$0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Joe ManchinContributionJohn RaeseContribution
Lawyers/law firms$670,553Entertainment industry$176,025
Mining industry$647,548Leadership PACs$143,190
Electric utilities$392,100Retired$109,513
Leadership PACs$366,000Lawyers/law firms$62,069
Health professionals$287,498Special trade contractors$59,450
Retired$275,750Health professionals$54,300
Pharmaceuticals/health products$272,900Financial institutions$52,695
Petroleum industry$256,150Real estate$45,875
Real estate$228,350Petroleum industry$35,900
Lobbyists$200,689Republican/Conservative$35,357
Source: OpenSecrets

Top industries

Joe ManchinContributionJohn RaeseContribution
FirstEnergy Corporation$136,950Greer Industries$124,754
Mylan Laboratories Inc.$127,500Mountaineer Contractors Inc.$40,900
Mepco LLC$64,400Senate Conservatives Fund$37,690
Dominion Resources$58,900Frankovitch, Anetakis, Colantonio & Simon$25,650
Centene Corporation$55,900Wv Radio$22,550
American Electric Power$55,750West Virginia Radio Corporation$16,821
Jackson Kelly PLLC$50,825Polino Contracting$15,500
Drummond Company$49,100Cleveland Brothers$10,800
Patriot Coal Corporation$48,400American Financial Group$10,200
Boich Companies$44,200Senate Majority Fund$10,000
Source: OpenSecrets

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJoe
Manchin (D)John
Raese (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 20–23, 20111,105±2.9%**60%**31%—9%
Public Policy PollingApril 21–24, 2011850±3.4%**61%**29%—10%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 1–4, 2011708±3.7%**62%**23%—14%
R.L. RepassApril 25–28, 2012410±4.8%**74%**22%—4%
R.L. RepassAugust 22–25, 2012401±4.9%**66%**27%—7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJoe
Manchin (D)Bill
Maloney (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 2, 2011932±3.2%**60%**29%—11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJoe
Manchin (D)David
McKinley (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 9–10, 20111,058±**53%**41%—3%
Public Policy PollingApril 21–24, 2011850±3.4%**63%**25%—12%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 1–4, 2011708±3.7%**60%**24%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJoe
Manchin (D)Shelley
Moore Capito (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 20–23, 20111,105±2.9%**50%**41%—10%
Public Policy PollingApril 21–24, 2011850±3.4%**48%**40%—12%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 1–4, 2011708±3.7%**52%**36%—13%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 2, 2011932±3.2%**49%**38%—13%

Results

In spite of the Republicans winning every county in the presidential election, Manchin carried 52 of West Virginia's 55 counties.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Berkeley (largest municipality: Martinsburg)
  • Hampshire (largest municipality: Romney)
  • Morgan (largest municipality: Berkeley Springs)
  • Hardy (largest municipality: Moorefield)
  • Mineral (largest municipality: Keyser)
  • Ritchie (largest municipality: Harrisville)
  • Pendleton (largest municipality: Franklin)
  • Tyler (largest municipality: Paden City)
  • Upshur (largest municipality: Buckhannon)
  • Putnam (largest municipality: Hurricane)

By congressional district

Manchin won all three congressional districts, including two held by Republicans.

DistrictManchinRaeseRepresentative
**58.31%**38.94%David McKinley
**58.48%**38.2%Shelley Moore Capito
**65.42%**31.82%Nick Rahall

References

References

  1. Dr. Michael McDonald. (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". [[George Mason University]].
  2. (June 10, 2013). "Perennial candidate Sheirl Fletcher files for Senate run".
  3. King, Joselyn. (January 19, 2012). "Manchin Wants To Stay In Senate". [[The Intelligencer & Wheeling News Register]].
  4. "Statewide Results". [[Secretary of State of West Virginia]].
  5. "Statewide Results". [[Secretary of State of West Virginia]].
  6. (July 24, 2012). "Mountain Party nominates Johnson, Baber at Sutton convention". [[The Charleston Gazette]].
  7. Catanese, David. (January 12, 2012). "Raese is back for a rematch". [[Politico]].
  8. "Manchin, Raese face off for Senate again - WBOY.com: Clarksburg, Morgantown: News, Sports, Weather".
  9. "John Raese: Gazette should endorse Manchin - Op-Ed Commentaries - The Charleston Gazette - West Virginia News and Sports".
  10. [https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/04/axelrod-sen-manchin-out-for-own-political-well-being/ Axelrod: Sen. Manchin Out for ‘Own Political Well-Being’ - ABC News]
  11. [http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/112/senate/1/votes/36/ GOP House budget bill {{! U.S. Congress Votes Database - The Washington PostThe Washington Post]
  12. [https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/19/john-raese-smoking-ban-hitler_n_1437201.html?ref=politics John Raese Equates Smoking Ban To Hitler Policy]
  13. [https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/20/john-raese-hitler-smoking-ban_n_1441771.html John Raese: Hitler Controversy Over Comparing Smoking Regulations To Nazi Policy Is 'Bull****']
  14. [https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/24/john-raese-ted-nugent-obama_n_1450907.html?ref=elections-2012 John Raese Calls Ted Nugent A Patriot After Obama Threat (VIDEO)]
  15. "Candidate Details".
  16. (March 25, 2013). "Top Industries 2012 Race: West Virginia Senate". [[OpenSecrets]].
  17. (March 25, 2013). "Top Contributors 2012 Race: West Virginia Senate". [[OpenSecrets]].
  18. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".
  19. "2012 Senate".
  20. "2012 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  21. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics.
  22. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WV_0125424.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  23. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WV_0428.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  24. [https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WV_0908930.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  25. [https://archive.today/20121209122408/http://www.dailymail.com/News/201204300184 R.L. Repass]
  26. [https://archive.today/20121204144417/http://www.dailymail.com/News/201208300213 R.L. Repass]
  27. [https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WV_1006.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  28. "West Virginia". The New York Times.
  29. "WV SOS - Elections - Election Results - Online Data Services".
  30. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".
Info: Wikipedia Source

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