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2014 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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2014 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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FieldValue
election_name2014 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
countryMassachusetts
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2013 United States Senate special election in Massachusetts
previous_year2013 (special)
next_election2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
next_year2020
election_dateNovember 4, 2014
image_size150x150px
image1File:Edward Markey, official portrait, 114th Congress (1).jpg
nominee1**Ed Markey**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**1,289,944**
percentage1**61.87%**
image23x4.svg
nominee2Brian Herr
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2791,950
percentage237.98%
map_image{{switcher
map_caption**Markey:**
**Herr:**
**Tie:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionEd Markey
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionEd Markey
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

|[[File:2014 United States Senate election in Massachusetts results map by county.svg|300px]] |County results |[[File:2014 United States Senate Election in Massachusetts by Municipality.svg|300px|]] |Municipality results |[[File:2014 United States Senate election in Massachusetts results map by congressional district.svg|300px]] |Congressional district results |[[File:MA Senate 2014.svg|300px|]] |Precinct results Herr:
Tie:

The 2014 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Massachusetts, other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey ran for re-election to a first full term in office. Primary elections were held on September 9, 2014. Markey was unopposed for the Democratic nomination; Hopkinton Selectman Brian Herr was also unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Background

Incumbent Democratic Senator John Kerry, serving since 1985, had planned to run for re-election to a sixth term, but on December 15, 2012, it was announced that the long-time Massachusetts senator and 2004 presidential nominee would be nominated as United States Secretary of State under President Barack Obama. Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick appointed Mo Cowan as a temporary replacement for Kerry, after he was confirmed as secretary of state and therefore resigned his senate seat. There was a special election on June 25, 2013, to finish the term, which was won by Ed Markey, the 37-year Democratic incumbent from .

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Ed Markey, incumbent U.S. Senator

Withdrew

  • John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State and former U.S. Senator

Declined

  • Mo Cowan, former U.S. Senator

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Brian Herr, Hopkinton Selectman

Did not qualify

  • Frank Addivinola, attorney, candidate for Massachusetts's 5th congressional district in 2012 and 2013
  • J. Mark Inman, contestant on The X Factor in 2011

Declined

  • Keith Ablow, psychiatrist and Fox News contributor
  • Charlie Baker, former state cabinet secretary and nominee for governor in 2010 (ran for governor)
  • Scott Brown, former U.S. Senator (ran for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire)
  • Gabriel E. Gomez, businessman, former Navy SEAL and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2013
  • Richard Tisei, former State Senate Minority Leader, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010 and nominee for MA-06 in 2012 (ran for Congress)
  • William Weld, former governor of Massachusetts and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996
  • Daniel Winslow, former state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2013

Independent

Candidates

Withdrew

  • Bruce Skarin, government research scientist

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
Markey (D)Brian
Herr (R)OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20141,846± 4.9%**61%**34%2%3%
Boston GlobeSeptember 14–16, 2014407± 4.85%**53%**27%—21%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 16–17, 2014750± 4%**49%**31%5%15%
WBUR/MassINCSeptember 16–21, 2014502± 4.4%**58%**30%1%11%
WNEUSeptember 20–28, 2014416 LV± 5%**56%**34%—10%
536 RV± 4%**52%**34%—14%
Suffolk UniversitySeptember 25–28, 2014500± 4.4%**54%**30%—16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20 – October 1, 20142,389± 2%**54%**31%1%14%
WBUR/MassINCOctober 1–4, 2014504± 4.4%**56%**30%1%13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20142,218± 3%**54%**32%0%14%
WBUR/MassINCOctober 22–25, 2014494± 4.4%**57%**32%1%9%
Umass AmherstOctober 20–27, 2014591 LV± 4.4%**53%**37%—9%
800 RV± 3.8%**52%**32%—15%
Suffolk UniversityOctober 27–29, 2014500± 4.4%**49%**34%—17%
WNEUOctober 21–30, 2014430 LV± 5%**54%**34%—12%
522 RV± 4%**53%**31%—17%
Public Policy PollingOctober 30 – November 2, 2014887± 3.3%**52%**38%—10%

With Markey

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
Markey (D)Frank
Addivinola (R)OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20141,901± 4.9%**59%**34%2%5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18 – September 2, 20143,361± 2%**53%**28%2%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
Markey (D)Scott
Brown (R)OtherUndecided
MassIncJuly 17–20, 2013500± 4.4%**43%**38%2%17%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 20–23, 2013616± 4%**46%**45%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
Markey (D)Gabriel
Gomez (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 20–23, 2013616± 4%**53%**35%—12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
Markey (D)Richard
Tisei (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 20–23, 2013616± 4%**54%**27%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
Markey (D)Bill
Weld (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 20–23, 2013616± 4%**47%**41%—11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
Markey (D)Generic
RepublicanOtherUndecided
WBUR/MassINCMarch 14–16, 2014500± 4.4%**50%**29%—21%

With Kerry

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
Kerry (D)Generic
RepublicanOtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 13–16, 20121,051± 3.3%**54%**33%—13%
Public Policy PollingOctober 9–11, 20121,051± 3.0%**53%**32%—15%
Public Policy PollingNovember 1–2, 20121,089± 3.0%**54%**30%—15%

Results

|[[File:Swing in each MA county from the 2013-2014 Senate elections.svg|300px]]|Shift by county |[[File:Trend in each MA county from the 2013-2014 Senate elections.svg|300px]]|Trend by county | | | | | | | | | | | | | |}}|

{{col-start}}

Democratic Republican

By county

CountyEd Markey
DemocraticBrian Herr
RepublicanWrite-in#%#%#%BarnstableBerkshireBristolDukesEssexFranklinHampdenHampshireMiddlesexNantucketNorfolkPlymouthSuffolkWorcesterTotals
**51,317****53.5**44,53446.4600.1
**28,871****74.9**9,62625.0260.1
**84,226****59.4**57,51340.51500.1
**5,161****71.9**2,01028.040.1
**146,869****59.4**99,94440.43030.1
**18,785****73.1**6,89926.8280.1
**76,816****59.7**51,66440.12960.2
**38,451****71.8**15,03628.1650.1
**337,553****65.9**173,53733.97940.2
**2,233****61.7**1,38638.330.1
**144,086****59.4**98,02740.43310.1
**91,682****52.8**81,74047.11490.1
**134,704****79.5**34,18920.25420.3
**129,190****52.7**115,84547.23270.1
**1,289,944****61.87**791,95037.983,0780.15

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Barnstable (largest municipality: Barnstable)
  • Bristol (largest municipality: New Bedford)
  • Hampden (largest municipality: Springfield)
  • Plymouth (largest municipality: Brockton)
  • Worcester (largest municipality: Worcester)

By congressional district

Markey won all nine congressional districts.

DistrictMarkeyHerrRepresentative1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
**62%**38%Richard Neal
**58%**42%Jim McGovern
**58%**42%Niki Tsongas
**59%**41%Joe Kennedy III
**69%**31%Katherine Clark
**58%**42%John F. Tierney
**84%**16%Michael Capuano
**61%**39%Stephen Lynch
**55%**45%Bill Keating

References

References

  1. Hillary Chabot. (June 26, 2013). "For Ed Markey, race is just beginning". Boston Herald.
  2. Dave Wedge. (February 21, 2009). "John Kerry sets sights on 2014". Boston Herald.
  3. (June 2021). "Sen. John Kerry plans re-election run for 2014, calls secretary of state ambitions 'rumors'". Washington Post}}{{dead link.
  4. Schoenberg, Shira. (May 10, 2013). "After leaving U.S. Senate, Mo Cowan will not run for office". [[The Republican (Springfield, Massachusetts).
  5. (January 29, 2014). "GOP's Herr to challenge Markey in Senate race". abc 6.
  6. (January 29, 2014). "Hopkinton Republican launches bid for US Senate". Boston Globe.
  7. Schoenberg, Shira. (February 18, 2014). "Republican Frank Addivinola launches campaign for U.S. Senate seat held by Ed Markey". masslive.com.
  8. "2014 Republican Primary Candidates". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.
  9. Sutner, Shaun. (February 14, 2014). "Senate candidate Skarin wants to win $15 by $15". Worcester Telegram.
  10. Arthur Christopher Schaper. (February 21, 2014). "Arthur Schaper: Mark Inman for US Senate (Really?!)". GoLocalWorcester.com.
  11. (January 12, 2013). "Ablow vows truth in possible Senate run". Newburyport News.
  12. (September 3, 2013). "Republican Charles Baker to announce Mass. gubernatorial bid Wednesday". [[Boston Globe]].
  13. Trygstad, Kyle. (December 19, 2013). "Scott Brown: New Hampshire Move is 'Strictly Personal'". [[Roll Call]].
  14. Miller, Joshua. (January 9, 2014). "Gomez will not run for office in 2014". [[Boston Globe]].
  15. LeBlanc, Steve. (November 11, 2012). "Eyes Turn To Future Of Mass. Governor and U.S. Senate Races". [[CBS Boston]].
  16. Schoenberg, Shira. (September 16, 2013). "State Rep. Dan Winslow resigns from House, rejoins private sector". [[The Republican (Springfield, Massachusetts).
  17. Rizzuto, Robert. (July 30, 2014). "Independent US Senate hopeful Bruce Skarin ends campaign to challenge Sen. Ed Markey". MassLive.
  18. "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014".
  19. "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks".
  20. "2014 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  21. "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics.
  22. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/cbs-nyt-yougov-19961 CBS News/NYT/YouGov] {{Webarchive. link. (2014-09-08)
  23. [https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1302905/0919topline.pdf Boston Globe]
  24. [https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/massachusetts/election_2014_massachusetts_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  25. [https://www.wbur.org/2014/09/24/poll-coakley-holds-10-point-leader-over-baker WBUR/MassINC]
  26. [https://web.archive.org/web/20141009072610/http://www1.wne.edu/assets/112/Polling_-MA_Gov(Sept_2014)_TABLES.pdf WNEU]
  27. [http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2014/09/29/FINAL_MA_Marginals_September.pdf Suffolk University]
  28. [http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  29. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/242219701/Topline-WBUR-General-1001-1004 WBUR/MassINC]
  30. [https://www.wbur.org/2014/10/28/final-baker-coakley-wbur-poll WBUR/MassINC]
  31. [http://www.umass.edu/poll/pdfs/20141030_Toplines.pdf Umass Amherst]
  32. [http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2014/10/30/FINAL_MA_Marginals.pdf Suffolk University]
  33. [https://web.archive.org/web/20141224064628/http://www1.wne.edu/assets/112/WNE_Polling_-_MA_Governor,Senate_Tables(Oct_31,_2014).pdf WNEU]
  34. [https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/MAResults.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  35. [https://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/07/poll_shows_democrat_edward_mar.html MassInc]
  36. [https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MA_924.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  37. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/213402274/WBUR-Poll-Governor-s-Race-3-20-14 WBUR/MassINC]
  38. [https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_91812.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  39. [https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_10112.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  40. [https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MACT_1102.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  41. "PD43+ >> 2014 U.S. Senate General Election". [[Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth.
  42. "PD43+ » 2014 U.S. Senate General Election". [[Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth]].
  43. https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::63f8c635-75ee-4a08-a798-cec3342feb49
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