From Surf Wiki (app.surf) — the open knowledge base

2014 South Australian state election

none

Field	Value
election_name	2014 South Australian state election
country	South Australia
type	parliamentary
vote_type	Primary
ongoing	no
previous_election	2010 South Australian state election
previous_year	2010
next_election	2018 South Australian state election
next_year	2018
seats_for_election	All 47 seats in the House of Assembly
24 seats are needed for a majority
11 (of the 22) seats in the Legislative Council
election_date	15 March 2014
<!-- Labor -->	image1
leader1	Jay Weatherill
leader_since1	21 October 2011
party1	Australian Labor Party (South Australian Branch)
leaders_seat1	Cheltenham
last_election1	26 seats
seats_needed1
seats1	23
seat_change1	3
popular_vote1	364,420
percentage1	35.80%
swing1	1.67
<!-- Liberal Party of Australia -->	image2
leader2	Steven Marshall
leader_since2	4 February 2013
party2	Liberal Party of Australia (South Australian Division)
leaders_seat2	Dunstan
last_election2	18 seats
seats_needed2	6
seats2	22
seat_change2	4
popular_vote2	455,797
percentage2	44.78%
swing2	3.13
<!-- TPP % -->	1blank	TPP
1data1	47.0%
1data2	53.0%
2blank	TPP swing
2data1	1.39
2data2	1.39
<!-- map -->	map_image	2014 South Australian state election.svg
map_size	360px
map_caption	Winning margin by electorate.
title	Premier
posttitle	Resulting Premier
before_election	Jay Weatherill
before_party	Australian Labor Party (South Australian Branch)
after_election	Jay Weatherill
after_party	Australian Labor Party (South Australian Branch)

24 seats are needed for a majority 11 (of the 22) seats in the Legislative Council

The 2014 South Australian state election elected members to the 53rd Parliament of South Australia on 15 March 2014, to fill all 47 seats in the House of Assembly (lower house) and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house). The 12-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, won its fourth consecutive four-year term in government, a record 16 years of Labor government, defeating the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall.

The election resulted in a hung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals. The balance of power rested with the two crossbench independents, Bob Such and Geoff Brock. Such did not indicate whom he would support in a minority government before he went on medical leave for a brain tumour, diagnosed one week after the election. University of Adelaide Professor and Political Commentator Clem McIntyre said the absence of Such virtually guaranteed that Brock would back Labor – with 24 seats required to govern, Brock duly provided support to the incumbent Labor government, allowing Weatherill to continue in office as head of a minority government. McIntyre said:

If Geoff Brock had gone with the Liberals, then the Parliament would have effectively been tied 23 to 23, so once Bob Such became ill and stepped away then Geoff Brock, I think had no choice but to side with Labor.

It is Labor's longest-serving South Australian government and the second longest-serving South Australian government behind the Playmander-assisted Liberal and Country League government of 1933-1965, which served first under Richard Layton Butler and then Thomas Playford IV. It is also the third time that any party has won four consecutive election victories in South Australia, after the LCL's 10 consecutive victories from 1933 to 1965 (the last eight under Playford) and Labor's four consecutive victories between 1970 and 1977 under Don Dunstan.

Recent hung parliaments occurred when Labor came to government in 2002 and prior to that when the state Liberal retained government in 1997 which saw the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia, created in 1974, win re-election for the first time.

The Liberals were reduced to 21 seats in May 2014 when Martin Hamilton-Smith became an independent and entered cabinet with Brock. Both Hamilton-Smith and Brock agreed to support the Labor government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to otherwise vote on conscience. Labor went from minority to majority government when Nat Cook won the 2014 Fisher by-election by five votes from a 7.3 percent two-party swing which was triggered by the death of Such. Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept Brock and Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority.

Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.

Results

Winning party by electorate.

House of Assembly

The Liberals took three seats from Labor resulting in a hung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals. Such did not indicate who he would support in a minority government before he went on medical leave for a brain tumour, diagnosed one week after the election. University of Adelaide Professor and Political Commentator Clem McIntyre said the absence of Such virtually guaranteed that Brock would back Labor – with 24 seats required to govern, Brock duly provided support to the incumbent Labor government, allowing Premier Jay Weatherill to continue in office as head of a minority government. McIntyre said:

If Geoff Brock had gone with the Liberals, then the Parliament would have effectively been tied 23 to 23, so once Bob Such became ill and stepped away then Geoff Brock, I think had no choice but to side with Labor.

In a joint press conference with Weatherill, Brock said Such's absence prompted him to make his decision a week sooner than planned. The new government was sworn in on 26 March, with Brock in cabinet as Minister for Regional Development and Local Government. The Liberals were reduced to 21 seats in May 2014 when Martin Hamilton-Smith became an independent and entered cabinet as Minister for Investment and Trade, Defence Industries and Veterans Affairs. Both Hamilton-Smith and Brock agreed to support the Labor government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to otherwise vote on conscience. Labor achieved majority government when Nat Cook won the 2014 Fisher by-election by five votes from a 7.3 percent two-party swing which was triggered by the death of Such. Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept Brock and Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority.

Independents: Bob Such, Geoff Brock

Although the state-wide two-party vote (2PP) was 47.0% Labor v 53.0% Liberal, the Adelaide metropolitan area containing over 75% of South Australia's population and 72% of seats (34 of 47) recorded a 2PP of 51.5% Labor v 48.5% Liberal.

Seat movement

The following seats changed hands:

Seat	Post-2014	Party		Member
Bright	Labor	Chloë Fox	0.5	3.7
Hartley	Labor	Grace Portolesi	0.1	2.6
Mitchell	Labor	Alan Sibbons	2.4	3.6
Mount Gambier	Independent	Don Pegler	0.5	7.7

Pendulum

The following Mackerras pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 results. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Croydon	Michael Atkinson	ALP	18.9%

Fisher	Bob Such	IND	9.4% v LIB

Legislative Council

Members of the South Australian Legislative Council	Labor (7)	Liberal (8)	Green (2)	Family First (2) *	Xenophon Team (1)	Dignity for Disability (1)	Independent (ex Labor) (1)

1 Appointed by casual vacancy in 2011

2 Elected from Labor ticket, became independent on 21 April 2011 following suspension from the ALP.

On 25 April 2017, it was announced that the Family First Party would merge with the Australian Conservatives, with its two members of the South Australian Legislative Council joining the party. The Family First executive voted to dissolve the party, and in accordance with Australian law, they donated all their assets to the Australian Conservative Party.

Date

The last state election was held on 20 March 2010 to elect members for the House of Assembly and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.

The Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Act 2013 introduced set dates for writs for General elections in South Australia. The writ sets the dates for the close of the electoral roll and the close of nominations for an election. The Electoral Act 1985 requires that, for a general election, the writ be issued 28 days before the date fixed for polling (S47(2a)) and the electoral roll be closed at 12 noon, 6 days after the issue of the writ (S48(3(a)(i). The close of nominations will be at 12 noon 3 days after the close of rolls (Electoral Act 1985 S48(4)(a) and S4(1)). Since the previous election, five new parties had registered: Fishing and Lifestyle Party, Liberal Democratic Party, Multicultural Progress Party, Stop Population Growth Now, and Katter's Australian Party. Six were no longer registered: The Democrats, Save the RAH, Gamers 4 Croydon, Democratic Labor Party, One Nation, and United Party.

Polling Day for the 2014 South Australian State election was Saturday 15 March 2014 from 8am until 6pm. The Issue of Writ for the 2014 South Australian State election was Saturday 15 February 2014. The Electoral Roll closed at 12 noon, Friday 21 February 2014. Nominations for candidates wishing to stand for election closed at 12 noon, Monday 24 February 2014, with the ballot order for both houses drawn and released shortly after, followed by close and release of upper house above-the-line preference tickets.

The 2014 Tasmanian state election occurred on the same day.

Background

The centre-left Australian Labor Party, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, and the centre-right Liberal Party of Australia, led by Leader of the Opposition Steven Marshall, are the two main parties in South Australia. In the 2010 state election, of 47 seats total, the Labor Party won 26 seats and the Liberal Party won 18 seats. Three seats were won by independents, Bob Such (Fisher), Geoff Brock (Frome), and Don Pegler (Mount Gambier). Smaller parties which held no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2010 include the SA Greens and the Family First Party. In the upper house, the Labor Party held eight seats, the Liberal Party held seven seats, the SA Greens, the Family First Party, and No Pokies all held two seats each, and Dignity for Disability held one seat.

A Port Adelaide by-election and a Ramsay by-election occurred on 11 February 2012, Labor retained both seats.

Retiring MPs

Labor

Lyn Breuer MHA (Giles)
Patrick Conlon MHA (Elder)
Robyn Geraghty MHA (Torrens)
John Hill MHA (Kaurna)
Michael O'Brien MHA (Napier)
Gay Thompson MHA (Reynell)
Michael Wright MHA (Lee)
Carmel Zollo MLC

Liberal

Ivan Venning MHA (Schubert)

Other

Ann Bressington MLC

Redistributions and the two-party vote

To produce 'fair' boundaries, which has a history going back to the mid-1900s Playmander, the Electoral Commission of South Australia has been required following the 1989 election to redraw boundaries after each election through a "fairness" provision with the objective that the party which receives over 50 percent of the statewide two-party vote at the forthcoming election should win the two-party vote in a majority of seats.

Labor's success in South Australia since the end of the Playmander has been based in part on the strength of its dominance in Adelaide. South Australia is the most centralised state in Australia; while 1.7 million people live in South Australia, 1.3 million of them live in Adelaide − uniquely, over 75 percent of the state's population and 72 percent of seats (34 of 47) are located in the metropolitan area alongside a lack of comparatively-sized rural population centres. Therefore, to a far greater extent than is the case in the rest of Australia, the metropolitan area tends to decide election outcomes. Under normal conditions, Labor wins the most seats in Adelaide, with the Liberal vote locked up in ultra-safe rural seats.

In 2010, for instance, the Liberals picked up a swing of 8.4 percent, more than the uniform 6.9 percent swing that the Boundaries Commission envisaged as being enough for a Liberal win. However, most of that swing came in seats that would have stayed in Labor hands in any event; while 22 seats saw double-digit swings, Labor sat on insurmountably safe margins in 16 of them. Additionally, while the Liberals took three Adelaide-area seats off Labor, it only won six additional seats in the capital. While six of the Liberals' 13 safe two-party seats were urban, all but one of their four marginal seats were urban. As a result, while the Liberals won 51.6 percent of the two-party vote, Labor only suffered an overall three-seat swing, allowing it to hold onto a two-seat majority.

The 2014 election saw more of the same. While the state-wide two-party vote (2PP) was 47.0% Labor v 53.0% Liberal, the metropolitan area recorded a 2PP of 51.5% Labor v 48.5% Liberal. The Liberals only won 12 of the 34 metropolitan seats; while only four of their 14 safe two-party seats were urban, all eight non-safe (

One element of the Playmander remains to this day − the House of Assembly is still elected using single-member seats. Prior to the Playmander, the House of Assembly had always been elected using multi-member seats since the inaugural 1857 election.

Each Labor period of government since the end of the Playmander had at least one comprehensive win, allowing often-Liberal seats to be won by Labor candidates who then built up incumbency and personal popularity. Examples in 2014 were Mawson, Newland and Light, and additionally in 2010, Bright and Hartley – all gained at the 2006 election landslide. Mawson in fact swung toward Labor in 2010 and 2014 despite the statewide trend. The bellwether seat of Colton was retained by Labor. Furthermore, all but two of the nine Liberal-held metropolitan seats saw swings against the Liberals.

In 2014, referring to the 1989 fairness legislation, Premier Jay Weatherill said "Complaining about the rules when you designed the rules I think sits ill on the mouth of the Liberal Party", while Electoral Commissioner Kay Mousley said it was an "impossible" task for the Boundaries Commission to achieve the legislated requirement, stating "It is a constitutional requirement, and until the constitution gets changed, I must say I find it a very inexact science". Additionally, she had previously stated in 2010 "Had the Liberal Party achieved a uniform swing it would have formed Government. The Commission has no control over, and can accept no responsibility for, the quality of the candidates, policies and campaigns." University of Adelaide Professor of Politics Clem Macintyre stated after the 2014 election that fair electoral boundaries are an "impossible challenge".

The Liberal Party disagreed with that assessment, and submitted that Hartley, Elder and Bright should be moved from Labor to Liberal.

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation's election expert Antony Green expected that the Labor government's parliamentary majority from the 2010 election would be redistributed away. However, the draft redistribution, which altered the boundaries of 36 of 47 seats, nominally gave Labor 26 seats and the Liberals 21 seats on a two-party basis. Although held by an independent member, Frome was proposed to be moved from Labor to Liberal on a two-party basis. It was also proposed that the Norwood be renamed Dunstan.

The final redistribution was released in August 2012. The renaming of the seat of Norwood to Dunstan occurred. On Antony Green's calculations, the notional two-party margin in Frome went from 0.1 percent Labor to 1.7 percent Liberal, Ashford went from 4.8 percent to 0.6 percent for Labor, Hartley went from 2.3 percent to 0.1 percent for Labor, Elder went from 3.6 percent to 2.0 percent for Labor and Light went from 5.3 percent to 2.8 percent for Labor, amongst other boundary and margin reductions and increases. All redistribution figures and swings used are based on Antony Green's booth-based declaration vote calculations rather than the electoral commission's seat-based declaration vote calculations.

Polling

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian was conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consisted of over 800 electors, while the 10–13 March 2014 poll consisted of 1602 electors. The declared margin of errors at these sample sizes were ±3.5 percent and ±2.5 percent respectively. Two-party preferred figures were calculated based on preference flows at the 2010 state election.

Two-party-preferred opinion polling for the 2014 South Australian state election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party.

Primary vote	TPP vote	Lib	Nat	ALP	Grn	Oth
44.8%	0.1%	35.8%	8.7%	10.7%	53.0%	47.0%
41%		34%	9%	16%	52.3%	47.7%
44%		34%	7%	15%	54%	46%
40%		33%	10%	17%	53%	47%
44%	1%	32%	10%	13%	56%	44%
43%	1%	33%	10%	13%	54%	46%
40%	1%	37%	9%	13%	51%	49%
43%	1%	28%	11%	17%	57%	43%
40%		34%	11%	15%	52%	48%
40%	2%	34%	9%	15%	52%	48%
40%	1%	30%	14%	15%	54%	46%
42%	1%	29%	14%	14%	56%	44%
41.7%	1.0%	37.5%	8.1%	11.7%	51.6%	48.4%
42.5%		35.3%	9.3%	12.3%	52%	48%
[Polling](https://web.archive.org/web/20170113232007/http://polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/cgi-bin/polling//display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=trend&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=14) conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

Better Premier	Weatherill	Weatherill	Marshall	Satisfied	Dissatisfied
–	–	–	–	–	–
43%	37%	42%	42%	42%	35%
40%	39%	43%	44%	45%	29%
40%	29%	43%	37%	43%	21%
41%	30%	47%	35%	41%	20%
42%	27%	46%	34%	37%	19%
47%	27%2	49%	32%	40%2	40%2
40%	27%2	42%	33%	40%2	36%2
46%	23%2	47%	23%	43%2	34%2
45%	29%2	51%	14%	49%2	30%2
34%1	45%2	31%1	59%1	51%2	29%2
32%1	50%2	30%1	59%1	52%2	25%2
–	–	–	–	–	–
43%1	45%2	43%1	48%1	59%2	23%2
[Polling](https://web.archive.org/web/20170113232007/http://polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/cgi-bin/polling//display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=trend&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=14) conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
1 Mike Rann.
2 Isobel Redmond.

References

[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-13/sa-by-election-bob-such-seat-to-put-pressure-on-weatherill-govt/5810494 By-election for Bob Such's seat of Fisher expected to put pressure on Weatherill Government: ABC 13 October 2014]
(16 March 2014). "Independents Bob Such, Geoff Brock likely to hold balance of power as hung parliament looms". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-23/sa-to-form-minority-labor-government/5339398 Labor to form minority government with support of independent Geoff Brock: ABC 23 March 2014]
[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-27/re-elected-sa-labor-government-gets-down-to-business/5348244 Re-elected SA Labor Government gets down to business: ABC 27/3/2014]
(2014-05-28). "Martin Hamilton-Smith quits Liberals to back South Australian Labor Government". ABC News.
[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-02/martin-hamilton-smith-first-labor-cabinet-meeting/5493714 Former Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith attends first Labor Cabinet meeting in SA: ABC 2 June 2014]
[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-13/labor-win-fisher-weatherill-majority-government-sa-by-election/5965332 Fisher by-election win for Labor gives Weatherill Government majority in SA: ABC 13 December 2014]
"Details of SA 2014 Election". Australian Politics and Elections Database.
link. (7 March 2016 , ECSA [http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/elections/state-elections/past-state-election-results/7678?view=result 2014 Heysen election] {{Webarchive). link. (11 December 2014 and ABC [http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2014/fisher/ 2014 Fisher by-election].)
Antony Green. (16 March 2014). "Changing Seats". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
"2014 SA pendulum". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
[http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/elections/2014-state-election-results-summary/house-of-assembly-final-results 2014 SA election House of Assembly final results: ECSA] {{webarchive. link. (24 March 2014)
[http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/party-codes.htm#status Seat status (Party 'safeness') - Political party name abbreviations & codes, demographic ratings and seat status: AEC]
Independent MP for [[Electoral district of Fisher. Fisher]] [[Bob Such]], without indicating [[confidence and supply]] support, took immediate medical leave for a [[brain tumour]], diagnosed one week after the election, with his death occurring later that year. Labor achieved [[majority government]] when [[Nat Cook]] won the [[2014 Fisher state by-election. 2014 Fisher by-election]].
"Results of 2014 Election".
https://www.parliament.sa.gov.au/Search/Member?type=member&id=3165
http://aap.newscentre.com.au/acci/110503/library/workplace_relations/25593488.html
(26 April 2017). "The Urge to merge – Family First and the Australian Conservatives". ABC.
Yaxley, Louise. (2017-04-25). "Cory Bernardi's Australian Conservatives to amalgamate with Family First". [[ABC News (Australia).
"Australian elections timetable". Australian Parliamentary Library.
(7 November 2013). "Registered Political Parties : 7 November 2013". ECSA.sa.gov.au.
"Key dates". ECSA.sa.gov.au.
"Lower house candidates". ECSA.sa.gov.au.
"Upper house candidates". ECSA.sa.gov.au.
"How-to-vote cards". ECSA.sa.gov.au.
(16 January 2014). "Tasmanian Premier names election date as March 15". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
(29 April 2013). "Lyn Breuer ponders her political deadline". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
(15 January 2013). "Senior Ministers to quit State Parliament". ABC News.
Brad Crouch. (5 April 2013). "Government Whip Robyn Geraghty will retire at the 2014 election". News Ltd.
Jonathan Swan. (31 January 2014). "Senator Don Farrell backs down on move to SA politics after Premier Jay Weatherill threatens to quit". The Sydney Morning Herald.
(28 March 2013). "Breuer to quit after losing speaker's chair". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
(15 March 2012). "Former Foley staffer tipped for Wright's seat". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
(29 November 2013). "CFS volunteers consider challenge to 'disgraceful' compensation legislation". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
[http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/liberal-south-australian-mp-ivan-venning-calling-stumps/story-e6frea83-1226422861849 Liberal South Australian MP Ivan Venning calling stumps: AdelaideNow 10 July 2012]
The Tally Room. (26 January 2014). "2014 SA election, upper house". Tally Room.
Jaensch Dean. (1990). "The 1989 South Australian election". Australian Journal of Political Science.
[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-17/south-australian-election-preview/5162058 2010 election preview] from Antony Green
[http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/liberals-blocked-by-unfair-boundaries-says-downer/story-e6frgczx-1226856356689 Liberals blocked by unfair boundaries, says Downer: The Australian 17 March 2014]
(12 August 2011). "Draft Redistribution Report". Electoral Commission of South Australia.
[https://www.adelaide.edu.au/news/news69462.html Fair electoral boundaries an "impossible challenge": University of Adelaide, 21 March 2014]
(5 August 2012). "Liberals want three marginal Labor seats to swing their way". The Advertiser.
Antony Green. (29 March 2010). "South Australian Election, Final 2-Party Preferred Counts". ABC News.
Antony Green. (8 February 2011). "Future election dates". ABC News.
Antony Green. (1 June 2012). "New State Electoral Boundaries Proposed for South Australia". ABC News.
[http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/01/2014-south-australian-electoral-pendulum.html 2014 South Australian Electoral Pendulum: Antony Green ABC 21 January 2014]
"Final redistribution report". Electoral Commission of South Australia.
(23 August 2012). "South Australia redistributed". Poll Bludger.
[http://www.abc.net.au/news/sa-election-2014/guide/nameindex/ 2014 SA election seats: ABC]

Info: Wikipedia Source

This article was imported from Wikipedia and is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License. Content has been adapted to SurfDoc format. Original contributors can be found on the article history page.

2014-elections-in-australia elections-in-south-australia 2010s-in-south-australia march-2014-in-australia

Want to explore this topic further?

Ask Mako anything about 2014 South Australian state election — get instant answers, deeper analysis, and related topics.

Research with Mako

Free with your Surf account

Content sourced from Wikipedia, available under CC BY-SA 4.0.

This content may have been generated or modified by AI. CloudSurf Software LLC is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of AI-generated content. Always verify important information from primary sources.

Report