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2014 Michigan gubernatorial election

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FieldValue
election_name2014 Michigan gubernatorial election
countryMichigan
typepresidential
ongoingno
turnout41.6% 1.3
previous_election2010 Michigan gubernatorial election
previous_year2010
next_election2018 Michigan gubernatorial election
next_year2018
election_dateNovember 4, 2014
image1File: Rick Snyder in 2013 (cropped).jpg
nominee1**Rick Snyder**
party1Republican Party (United States)
running_mate1**Brian Calley**
popular_vote1**1,605,034**
percentage1**50.92%**
image2File:Mark Schauer (cropped).jpg
image_size150x150px
nominee2Mark Schauer
party2Democratic Party (United States)
running_mate2Lisa Brown
popular_vote21,476,904
percentage246.86%
map_caption**Snyder:** 90%}}--
**Schauer:** 90%}}
**Tie:** --
titleGovernor
before_electionRick Snyder
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionRick Snyder
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)
map{{switcher

Schauer: 90%}} Tie: -- |300px |County results |300px |Congressional district results |Municipality results--}} The 2014 Michigan gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Michigan, concurrently with the election of Michigan's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

This was one of nine Republican-held governorships up for election in a state that Barack Obama won in the 2012 presidential election. Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder ran for election to a second term in office.

Snyder was considered vulnerable in his bid for a second term, as reflected in his low approval ratings. The consensus among The Cook Political Report, Governing, The Rothenberg Political Report, and Sabato's Crystal Ball was that the contest was a "tossup". Snyder was saddled with a negative approval rating, while his Democratic opponent, former U.S. representative Mark Schauer, suffered from a lack of name recognition. Despite having a more centrist voting record in the House of Representatives, Schauer ran as more of a populist who put education, unions and taxes as his top priorities.

Despite concerns about his approval rating hurting his chances at victory, Snyder was re-elected with 50.9% of the vote. As of , this is the last time a Republican was elected Governor of Michigan, and the last time the Republican candidate won the counties of Kalamazoo, Oakland, Clinton, Macomb, Kent, Leelanau, and Isabella, and the last time the Democratic candidate won the counties of Alger, Baraga, and Manistee. This is also the last time that the winner of the Michigan gubernatorial election won a majority of counties. This was the first time since 1990 that Michigan simultaneously voted for gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates of different political parties.

Republican primary

Polling indicated significant opposition from Republican primary voters in Michigan towards Snyder's bid for re-election. This came in the midst of discussions by the Tea Party network regarding whether incumbent lieutenant governor Brian Calley should be replaced as Snyder's running mate. Snyder started running campaign ads in September 2013, immediately following the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference and formally declared that he is seeking re-election in January 2014.

In August 2013, Tea Party leader Wes Nakagiri announced that he would challenge Calley for the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor. At the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference (September 20–22, 2013), speculation reported by the media also included Todd Courser as a potential challenger to Calley. At the Michigan Republican Party state convention, which took take place on August 23, 2014, incumbent lieutenant governor Brian Calley won renomination.

On January 3, 2014, Mark McFarlin (who had originally declared his intention to run as a Democrat the previous November), announced that he would be running for the Republican nomination. He believed that his populist platform was too conservative for the Democratic ticket, and that he could get crossover support in the general election. However, he did not submit his filing petitions in time to qualify for the August primary ballot.

Candidates

Declared

  • Rick Snyder, incumbent governor of Michigan

Failed to qualify

  • Mark McFarlin, private investigator and Independent write-in candidate for governor in 2002 (had declared as a Democrat, then switched parties)

Declined

  • Mike Bishop, former Majority Leader of the Michigan Senate (running for Congress)
  • Todd Courser, Tea Party activist, candidate for the Michigan Board of Education in 2012 and for chairman of the Michigan Republican Party in 2013

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
SnyderDave
AgemaUndecided
Harper PollingSeptember 4, 2013958±3.17%**64%**16%20%
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%32.39%**42.34%**25.27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
SnyderMike
BishopUndecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%**36.83%**24.19%**38.98%**
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
SnyderKeith
ButlerUndecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%**38.98%**11.29%**49.73%**
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
SnyderBetsy
DeVosUndecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%**40.59%**18.41%**40.99%**
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
SnyderGary
GlennUndecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%**39.11%**30.78%30.11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
SnyderPete
HoekstraUndecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%**47.04%**21.77%31.18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
SnyderBill
SchuetteUndecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%31.85%**38.44%**29.70%

Results

Democratic primary

Michigan Democratic Party leadership rallied support behind former U.S. representative Mark Schauer, who ran unopposed in the Democratic Party primary. Party Chairman Lon Johnson encouraged all other potential challengers to stay out of the race so as to avoid a costly and potentially bitter primary campaign. Conservative Democrat and "birther" Mark McFarlin had announced on November 29, 2013, that he was running for the Democratic nomination for governor, but he switched parties on January 3, 2014, leaving Schauer as the only candidate for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

  • Mark Schauer, former U.S. representative :*Running mate: Lisa Brown, Oakland County Clerk & Register of Deeds and former state representative

Withdrew

  • Mark McFarlin, private investigator and Independent write-in candidate for governor in 2002 (ran as a Republican)

Declined

  • John C. Austin, president of the Michigan Board of Education
  • Vicki Barnett, Minority Whip of the Michigan House of Representatives
  • Jocelyn Benson, dean of Wayne State University Law School and nominee for Michigan Secretary of State in 2010
  • Virgil Bernero, Mayor of Lansing and nominee for governor in 2010
  • Mark Bernstein, attorney and Regent of the University of Michigan
  • Mike Duggan, Mayor-elect of Detroit and former Wayne County Prosecutor
  • Mark Hackel, Macomb County Executive
  • Dan Kildee, U.S. representative
  • Gary Peters, U.S. representative (running for the U.S. Senate)
  • Bart Stupak, former U.S. representative
  • Gretchen Whitmer, Minority Leader of the Michigan Senate

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMark
SchauerBob
KingUndecided
Mitchell ResearchMay 28, 2013361± 5.16%31%**38%**31%

Results

Minor parties

Candidates

Libertarian Party

  • Mary Buzuma, nominee for Michigan's 2nd congressional district in 2012
  • : Running mate: Scott Boman, activist, former chairman of the Libertarian Party of Michigan and perennial candidate

Green Party

  • Paul Homeniuk
  • : Running mate: Candace Caveny, nominee for the state senate in 2006, 2008 and 2010 and nominee for the State Board of Education in 2012

U.S. Taxpayers Party

  • Mark McFarlin, Independent write-in candidate for governor in 2002
  • : Running mate: Richard Mendoza

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Robin Sanders, retired from the United States Navy and the Michigan Department of Corrections

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
Snyder (R)Mark
Schauer (D)OtherUndecided
Mitchell ResearchNovember 3, 20141,310± 2.7%**48%**47%3%2%
Mitchell ResearchNovember 2, 20141,224± 2.8%**47%****47%**4%3%
Clarity Campaign LabsNovember 1–2, 20141,003± 3.08%**45%****45%**—10%
Public Policy PollingNovember 1–2, 2014914± 3.2%**46%**45%4%5%
**47%****47%**—5%
EPIC-MRAOctober 26–28, 2014600± 4%**45%**43%3%9%
Mitchell ResearchOctober 27, 20141,159± 2.88%**48%**43%3%5%
Glengariff GroupOctober 22–24, 2014600± 4%**45%**40%5%10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20142,394± 3%44%**45%**1%11%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 20–22, 20141,000± 3%**49%**46%2%3%
Public Policy PollingOctober 20–21, 2014723± ?**48%****48%**—4%
Clarity Campaign LabsOctober 19–20, 20141,032± ?41%**44%**—15%
Mitchell ResearchOctober 19, 2014919± 3.23%**48%**46%3%3%
EPIC-MRAOctober 17–19, 2014600± 4%**47%**39%3%11%
Clarity Campaign LabsOctober 12–14, 2014967± 3.16%**44%**42%—13%
Clarity Campaign LabsOctober 11–13, 20141,032± ?**44%**43%—13%
Mitchell ResearchOctober 12, 20141,340± 2.68%**47%**44%3%6%
Mitchell ResearchOctober 9, 20141,306± 2.71%**47%**46%4%3%
Glengariff GroupOctober 2–4, 2014600± 4%**45%**37%3%15%
Public Policy PollingOctober 2–3, 2014654± 3.8%**47%**46%—7%
Marketing Resource GroupSeptember 30–October 1, 2014600± 4%**46%**41%4%10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20–October 1, 20142,560± 2%44%**46%**1%9%
Lake Research PartnersSeptember 27–30, 2014600± 4%**44%**43%—12%
Mitchell ResearchSeptember 29, 20141,178± 2.86%**46%**42%5%8%
EPIC-MRASeptember 25–29, 2014600± 4%**45%**39%8%8%
Target-InsyghtSeptember 22–24, 2014616± 4%44%**45%**—11%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 18–19, 2014852± 3.4%**46%**44%—10%
We Ask AmericaSeptember 18–19, 20141,182± 3%**43%****43%**4%10%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 17–18, 2014750± 4%**47%**41%3%9%
Denno ResearchSeptember 11–13, 2014600± 4%**43%**40%—17%
Mitchell ResearchSeptember 10, 2014829± 3.4%**46%**41%7%6%
SuffolkSeptember 6–10, 2014500± 4.4%43%**45%**4%8%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 4–7, 2014687± 3.7%**43%**42%6%9%
**46%**44%—10%
Glengariff GroupSeptember 3–5, 2014600± 4%**44%**42%3%12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18–September 2, 20142,897± 3%**44%**43%1%12%
Mitchell ResearchAugust 27, 20141,004± 3.09%**47%**46%—7%
EPIC-MRAAugust 22–25, 2014600± 4%43%**45%**—12%
Lake Research PartnersAugust 6–11, 2014800± 3.5%**46%**38%—15%
Mitchell ResearchAugust 5, 2014626± 5%**47%**42%—11%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 28–29, 2014750± 4%**45%**42%5%8%
Marketing Resource GroupJuly 26–30, 2014600± 4%**45%**44%—11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20143,812± 2.8%**46%**43%1%9%
Mitchell ResearchJuly 7–17, 2014600± 4%**43%**39%—17%
EPIC-MRAJuly 12–15, 2014600± 4%**46%**43%—11%
Denno ResearchJuly 9–11, 2014600± 4%**43%**35%—22%
NBC News/MaristJuly 7–10, 2014870± 3.3%**46%**44%1%9%
Public Policy PollingJune 26–29, 2014578± 4.1%**40%****40%**—20%
Mitchell ResearchJune 6, 2014961± 3.16%**46%**41%—13%
Glengariff GroupMay 20–22, 2014600± 4.3%**45%**35%—20%
EPIC-MRAMay 17–20, 2014600± 4%**47%**38%—15%
Hickman AnalyticsApril 24–30, 2014502± 4.4%**48%**37%—15%
Magellan StrategiesApril 14–15, 2014875± 3.31%**45%**42%9%4%
Mitchell ResearchApril 9, 20141,460± 2.56%**49%**37%—15%
Public Policy PollingApril 3–6, 2014825± 3.4%**43%**39%—18%
Marketing Resource GroupMarch 24–28, 2014600± 4.1%**47%**39%—14%
Denno ResearchMarch 9–10, 2014600± 4%**42%**39%—20%
Benenson Strategy GroupMarch 4–7, 2014600± 4%**45%**42%—9%
Public Opinion StrategiesMarch 2–4, 2014500± 4.4%**45%**36%—19%
Clarity CampaignsFebruary 22–23, 2014859± 2.5540%**47%**—12%
Target InsyghtFebruary 18–20, 2014600± ?**47%**38%—15%
EPIC-MRAFebruary 5–11, 2014600± 4%**47%**39%—14%
Harper PollingJanuary 7–8, 20141,004± 3.09%**47%**35%—18%
Public Policy PollingDecember 5–8, 20131,034± 3%**44%**40%—16%
Denno ResearchNovember 12–14, 2013600± 4%**45%**31%—25%
Inside Michigan PoliticsOctober 29, 2013794± 4%**36%**34%—30%
MRG/Mitchell ResearchOctober 6–10, 2013600± 4%**50%**36%—14%
EPIC-MRASeptember 7–10, 2013600± 4%**44%**36%—20%
Denno ResearchJuly 23–24, 2013600± 4%**43%**37%—20%
Public Policy PollingMay 30–June 2, 2013697± 3.7%38%**42%**—20%
EPIC-MRAMay 11–15, 2013600± 4%**39%****39%**—22%
EPIC-MRAApril 13–16, 2013600± 4%38%**39%**—23%
Public Policy PollingMarch 2–4, 2013702± 3.7%36%**40%**—24%
Public Policy PollingDecember 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%39%**44%**—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
Snyder (R)Virg
Bernero (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 2–4, 2013702± 3.7%38%**43%**19%
Public Policy PollingDecember 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%38%**49%**12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
Snyder (R)Gary
Peters (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 2–4, 2013702± 3.7%37%**44%**19%
Public Policy PollingDecember 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%39%**47%**14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
Snyder (R)Bart
Stupak (D)Undecided
EPIC-MRAApril 13–16, 2013600± 4%**39%**38%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
Snyder (R)Gretchen
Whitmer (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingDecember 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%38%**46%**16%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Alger (largest city: Munising)
  • Baraga (Largest city: Baraga)
  • Bay (largest city: Bay City)
  • Eaton (largest city: Charlotte)
  • Ingham (largest city: Lansing)
  • Manistee (largest city: Manistee)
  • Marquette (largest city: Marquette)
  • Muskegon (largest city: Muskegon)
  • Saginaw (largest city: Saginaw)

By congressional district

Snyder won nine of 14 congressional districts.

DistrictSnyderSchauerRepresentative
**54.0%**43.28%Dan Benishek
**62.7%**34.87%Bill Huizenga
**60.6%**37.18%Justin Amash
**55.1%**42.05%John Moolenaar
39.95%**57.59%**Dan Kildee
**55.91%**41.21%Fred Upton
**54.37%**43.29%Tim Walberg
**58.07%**39.99%Mike Bishop
47.19%**50.68%**Sander Levin
**59.08%**38.42%Candice Miller
**62.31%**36.02%David Trott
41.27%**56.53%**Debbie Dingell
20.26%**78.15%**John Conyers Jr.
27.52%**71.43%**Brenda Lawrence

References

References

  1. "General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics".
  2. (2014-07-31). "2014 Official Michigan Primary Candidate Listing". Miboecfr.nictusa.com.
  3. (July 18, 2013). "Handicapping the 2013–2014 Governors Races: The Tossups". Governing.
  4. (January 28, 2014). "Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder raises $5M in 2013 for re-election bid". Daily Tribune.
  5. (April 8, 2013). "Which Governors Are Most Vulnerable in 2014?". Five Thirty Eight.
  6. Woods, Ashley. (November 8, 2013). "Michigan Governor Poll Shows Close Race Between Rick Snyder, Mark Schauer". [[The Huffington Post]].
  7. "Ratings".
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  9. "Ratings".
  10. "Ratings".
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  14. (October 28, 2014). "Old-style populism lives on in Michigan race".
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  23. (September 5, 2013). "GOP poll says Livingston County's Nakagiri has shot at state's No. 2 post in 2014".
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  60. Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
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  63. Mary Buzuma (L) 3%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 0%
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  66. Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 0%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
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  77. Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 2%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
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  79. Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
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  85. Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) <1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
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