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2014 Alaska gubernatorial election

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FieldValue
election_name2014 Alaska gubernatorial election
countryAlaska
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2010 Alaska gubernatorial election
previous_year2010
next_election2018 Alaska gubernatorial election
next_year2018
election_dateNovember 4, 2014
image1File:Bill Walker.jpg
image_sizex150px
nominee1**Bill Walker**
party1Independent
alliance1Democratic
running_mate1**Byron Mallott**
popular_vote1**134,658**
percentage1**48.10%**
image2File:Former Governor of Alaska Sean Parnell.jpg
nominee2Sean Parnell
party2Republican Party (United States)
running_mate2Dan Sullivan
popular_vote2128,435
percentage245.88%
map_caption**Walker:**
**Parnell:**
titleGovernor
before_electionSean Parnell
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionBill Walker
after_partyIndependent politician
map{{Switcher
State house district resultsdefault1

Parnell:
| [[File:2014 Alaska gubernatorial election results map by borough and census area.svg|350px]] | Borough and census area results | [[File:2014 Alaska gubernatorial election results by State House district.svg|350px]] | State house district results| default = 1

The 2014 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska, concurrently with the election of Alaska's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican governor Sean Parnell ran for re-election to a second full term in office, but incumbent lieutenant governor Mead Treadwell instead chose to run for the U.S. Senate. Primary elections were held on August 19, 2014, to determine party nominees for the office, with separate primaries held for governor and lieutenant governor and the winners running together on the same ticket.

Parnell was renominated; his running mate was Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan. The Democrats nominated businessman and former executive director of the Alaska Permanent Fund Byron Mallott, whose running mate was State Senator Hollis French. Also running as an independent was former Republican mayor of Valdez Bill Walker, whose running mate was Craig Fleener, the former deputy commissioner of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

On September 2, 2014, Walker and Mallott merged their campaigns to appear on the November ballot as a single independent ticket, which the Alaska Democratic Party endorsed. On this ticket, Walker ran for governor with Mallott as his running mate. Both candidates' former running mates withdrew. Parnell was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. The consensus among The Cook Political Report, Governing, The Rothenberg Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Daily Kos Elections, and others was that the contest was a tossup. Former Republican governor Sarah Palin, who had praised Parnell as her successor when she resigned in 2009, endorsed Walker and Mallott, taking issue with Parnell's tax cuts for the oil and gas industry.

On November 7, Walker and Mallott held a 3,165-vote lead, which on November 11 had grown to 4,004 out of some 244,000 votes cast, or 1.6%. Walker began preparing for a transition but the race remained officially uncalled and Parnell refused to concede. On November 14, after Walker and Mallott extended their lead to 4,634 votes, multiple media outlets called the race. Parnell conceded the following day. His loss – coupled with Democrat Mark Begich's defeat in the U.S. Senate election – marked just the fifth time in the last 50 years in which an incumbent governor and senator from different political parties were defeated in the same state in the same election cycle.

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Gerald L. "Tap" Heikes, minister, candidate for governor in 2006 and 2010 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008
  • Russ Millette, former chairman-elect of the Alaska Republican Party
  • Sean Parnell, incumbent governor
  • Brad Snowden, candidate for governor in 2002
Withdrew
  • Bill Walker, former mayor of Valdez and candidate for governor in 2010 (ran as an independent)

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSean
ParnellBill
WalkerUndecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 25–28, 2013507± 4.4%**60%**22%18%

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Dan Sullivan, Mayor of Anchorage
  • Kelly Wolf, Kenai Peninsula Borough Assemblyman and former state representative
Withdrew
  • Lesil McGuire, state senator

Results

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.

Governor

Democratic candidates

Declared
  • Byron Mallott, businessman, former mayor of Juneau, former president of the Alaska Federation of Natives and former executive director of the Alaska Permanent Fund
  • Phil Stoddard, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1984 and candidate for governor in 1986
Withdrew
  • Hollis French, state senator and candidate for governor in 2010 (running for lieutenant governor)
Declined
  • Ethan Berkowitz, former Minority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006, for Congress in 2008 and governor in 2010
  • Les Gara, state representative
  • Scott McAdams, former mayor of Sitka and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010
  • Bill Wielechowski, state senator

Libertarian candidates

Declared
  • Carolyn Clift, treasurer of the Alaska Libertarian Party

Results

Lieutenant governor

Democratic candidates

Declared
  • Hollis French, state senator and candidate for governor in 2010
  • Bob Williams, teacher

Libertarian candidates

Declared
  • Andrew C. Lee, gold miner

Results

Others

Constitution Party

  • J. R. Myers, founder and chairman of the Alaska Constitution Party :*Running mate: Maria Rensel

Independent

  • Bill Walker, former mayor of Valdez and Republican candidate for governor in 2010 :*Running mate: Byron Mallott, businessman, former mayor of Juneau, former president of the Alaska Federation of Natives and former executive director of the Alaska Permanent Fund :*Former running mate: Craig Fleener, former deputy commissioner of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game

General election

Campaign

Parnell drew criticism during his re-election campaign over his support of billions in tax reductions for the petrochemical industry as well an exploding scandal featuring five years of alleged cover ups with regard to rampant sexual abuse, cronyism, corruption and whistleblower suppression, in the Alaska National Guard.

In October 2014, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin endorsed Walker and Mallott. The endorsement was prompted by Parnell's oil and gas industry tax cuts, which dismantled her administration's "Alaska's Clear and Equitable Share" (ACES) plan. She had previously supported a referendum to repeal the tax cuts, which was narrowly defeated in August 2014. Walker and Mallott made the repeal of the tax cuts a centerpiece of their campaign.

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal BallIndependent}}"November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSean
Parnell (R)Byron
Mallott (D)Bill
Walker (I)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 1–2, 20141,052± 3%45%—**46%**4%5%
47%—**48%**—6%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 27–30, 2014887± 4%43%—**50%**—7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 2014561± 9%**42%**—39%0%20%
Hellenthal & AssociatesOctober 15–21, 2014403± 4.88%**44%**—43%5%9%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 8–12, 2014700± 4%41%—**50%**2%7%
Fox NewsOctober 4–7, 2014706± 3.5%**42%**—37%8%13%
CNN/ORCOctober 1–6, 2014704 LV± 3.5%45%—**51%**—3%
875 RV± 3.4%46%—**49%**1%5%
Hickman AnalyticsSeptember 26 – October 2, 2014400± 4.9%**46%**—38%7%10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20 – October 1, 2014593± 5%40%—**45%**1%14%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 23–24, 2014713± 4%42%—**47%**5%6%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 18–21, 2014880± 3.3%41%—**42%**5%13%
41%—**45%**—14%
Hays Research/AFL-CIOSeptember 13–14, 2014500± 4.38%30%—**37%**33%
Hays Research*August 20–22, 2014474± 4.5%40%—**43%**—15%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 20–21, 2014750± 4%**47%**36%—11%6%
Public Policy PollingJuly 31 – August 1, 2014673± 3.8%**37%**22%20%5%16%
**48%**37%——14%
**41%**—40%—19%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 2014450± 5.2%**55%**29%—6%8%
Public Policy PollingMay 8–11, 2014582± 4.1%**37%**27%17%4%15%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 30 – February 1, 2014850± 3.4%**41%**25%16%3%15%
    • Internal poll for Bill Walker campaign
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSean
Parnell (R)Ethan
Berkowitz (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 25–28, 2013890± 3.3%**51%**38%12%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–5, 20131,129± 2.9%**50%**41%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSean
Parnell (R)Hollis
French (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 25–28, 2013890± 3.3%**54%**33%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSean
Parnell (R)Les
Gara (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 25–28, 2013890± 3.3%**53%**33%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSean
Parnell (R)Scott
McAdams (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–5, 20131,129± 2.9%**52%**34%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSean
Parnell (R)Mike
Navarre (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–5, 20131,129± 2.9%**51%**29%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSean
Parnell (R)Joe
Paskvan (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–5, 20131,129± 2.9%**51%**25%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSean
Parnell (R)Bill
Wielechowski (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 25–28, 2013890± 3.3%**52%**33%15%

Results

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Independent

  • Denali Borough (largest city: Healy)
  • Fairbanks North Star (largest city: Fairbanks)
  • Petersburg
  • Valdez–Cordova Census Area (largest city: Valdez)
  • Aleutians West Census Area (largest city: Unalaska)
  • Anchorage
  • Bethel Census Area (largest city: Bethel)
  • Kusilvak Census Area (largest city: Hooper Bay)
  • Haines Borough (largest census-designated place: Haines)
  • Kodiak Island (largest city: Kodiak Island)
  • Lake & Peninsula Borough (largest city: Newhalen)
  • North Slope Borough (largest city: Utqiaġvik)
  • Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Craig)
  • Yukon–Koyukuk Census Area (largest city: Fort Yukon)
  • Juneau

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Independent

  • Nome Census Area (largest city: Nome)
  • Dilingham Census Area (largest city: Dilingham)
  • Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
  • Sitka
  • Skagway
  • Hoonah–Angoon Census Area (largest town: Hoonah)
  • Yakutat

References

Notes

References

  1. Not to be confused with former commissioner of the [[Alaska Department of Natural Resources]] [[Dan Sullivan (U.S. Senator). Dan Sullivan]] who ran as the Republican nominee in the U.S. Senate election which was held at the same time.
  2. (September 1, 2014). "Walker, Mallott to join forces in governor's race". Alaska Dispatch News.
  3. (November 6, 2014). "In governor's race, Walker has edge -- or maybe not". Alaska Dispatch News.
  4. (November 11, 2014). "Highs, lows for campaigns as votes are tallied in Alaska election". Alaska Dispatch News.
  5. (November 12, 2014). "Parnell says race isn't over as Walker moves ahead with transition planning". Alaska Dispatch News.
  6. (November 13, 2014). "Governor's race uncalled; Walker plans transition". Alaska Journal.
  7. (November 12, 2014). "Walker introduces co-chairs of transition team". Houston Chronicle.
  8. (November 7, 2014). "Number of uncounted votes grows in Alaska U.S. Senate race". Alaska Dispatch News.
  9. (November 10, 2014). "More than 50,000 votes remain to be counted in heated Alaska races". Alaska Dispatch News.
  10. (November 15, 2014). "Friday vote count makes Walker victory in race for governor look certain". Alaska Dispatch News.
  11. (November 15, 2014). "Alaska Governor Race: Incumbent Republican Sean Parnell Loses To Independent Bill Walker". The Huffington Post.
  12. (November 15, 2014). "Unity ticket defeats Alaska GOP Gov. Sean Parnell in drawn-out race". Los Angeles Times.
  13. (November 15, 2014). "Parnell concedes governor's race". Alaska Dispatch News.
  14. Ostermeier, Eric. (November 19, 2014). "Mark Begich and Sean Parnell Join Small Group in Defeat". Smart Politics.
  15. "2014 Primary Official Candidate List". Alaska Secretary of State.
  16. (May 23, 2014). "Ousted GOP leader plans run for governor". [[Anchorage Daily News]].
  17. Forgey, Pat. (2013-05-04). "Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell to seek re-election in 2014". Alaska Dispatch.
  18. Thiessen, Mark. (April 25, 2013). "Walker announces 2014 run for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News.
  19. (August 1, 2013). "Walker planning to run as independent for Alaska governor". Newsminer.
  20. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AK_073013.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  21. "2014 Primary Elections August 19, 2014 Official Results". State of Alaska Division of Elections.
  22. Gonzales, Nathan L.. (May 23, 2013). "Anchorage Mayor Not Running in Alaska Senate Race". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  23. (June 2, 2014). "Assembly Member Running for Lieutenant Governor". [[Anchorage Daily News]].
  24. Hopkins, Kyle. (June 5, 2013). "McGuire files to run for lieutenant governor". [[Anchorage Daily News]].
  25. (June 2, 2014). "McGuire withdraws from lieutenant governor race just before filing deadline". [[Anchorage Daily News]].
  26. DeMarban, Alex. (September 3, 2013). "Byron Mallot announces decision to run for Alaska governor". [[Alaska Dispatch]].
  27. John Aronno. (October 16, 2013). "Hollis French Swaps Roles, 2014 Gubernatorial Field Likely Set.". Alaska Commons.
  28. Miller, Mark D.. (May 6, 2013). "Treadwell ramps up for Senate after Parnell announcement". Juneau Empire.
  29. (August 22, 2013). "Gara decides to seek re-election to Alaska House". [[Anchorage Daily News]].
  30. Caldwell, Suzanna. (2013-04-03). "Less is more as former Senate candidate Scott McAdams sheds 100 pounds". Alaska Dispatch.
  31. (May 29, 2013). "Wielechowski taking look at governor's race". News Miner.
  32. Scott Rhode. (June 3, 2014). "Ten Observations About 2014 Candidates". [[KENI]].
  33. (June 3, 2014). "Sen. Lesil McGuire withdrawing from lieutenant gov's race". KTOO.
  34. (May 20, 2014). "Loose Lips: Establishment finds its West Anchorage candidate, drafting Palin, Gattis nabs Bickford". Amanda Coyne.
  35. Redlich, Warren. (2013-10-01). "Constitution Party Candidate for Alaska". Independent Political Report.
  36. "November 4, 2014 General Election Candidate List". Alaska Secretary of State.
  37. Demer, Lisa. (October 14, 2013). "Walker chooses Fleener as running mate in independent bid for governor". Alaska Dispatch News.
  38. [http://www.adn.com/article/20141002/parnell-defends-handling-alaska-national-guard-dysfunction-plans-more-firings Parnell defends handling alaska national guard dysfunction, plans more firings], [[Alaska Dispatch News]], Jill Burke and Richard Mauer, October 2, 2014. Retrieved October 3, 2014.
  39. [http://www.adn.com/article/20141001/parnell-waited-years-take-direct-action-national-guard-misconduct Parnell waited years to take direct action on National Guard misconduct], [[Alaska Dispatch News]], Jill Burke and Richard Mauer, October 1, 2014. Retrieved October 3, 2014.
  40. [http://www.ktuu.com/news/news/anchorage-sb21-debate-draws-standingroomonly-crowd/27122724 Debate draws standing-room-only crowd] {{webarchive. link. (June 2, 2015 , [[KTUU]], Caslon Hatch. July 23, 2014. Retrieved October 3, 2014.)
  41. [http://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_Oil_Tax_Cuts_Veto_Referendum,Ballot_Measure_1(August_2014) narrowly defeated]
  42. (October 23, 2014). "Palin Endorses Independent-Democratic Ticket for Alaska Governor Against GOP Successor". National Journal.
  43. "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014".
  44. (November 3, 2014). "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks".
  45. "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  46. "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics.
  47. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/AKResults.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  48. Carolyn Clift (L) 2%, J.R. Myers (I) 2%
  49. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/alaska/election_2014_alaska_governor Rasmussen Reports]
  50. [https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/09/governor-races-headline-results/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  51. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/244305469/AK-Sen-AK-Gov-Hellenthal-Associates-Oct-2014 Hellenthal & Associates]
  52. Carolyn Clift (L) 4%, J.R. Myers (I) 1%
  53. [http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/08/fox-news-poll-sullivan-has-44-40-percent-advantage-over-begich-in-alaska/ Fox News]
  54. Carolyn Clift (L) 4%, J.R. Myers (I) 1%, Other 3%
  55. [http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/10/08/aksenaterace.pdf CNN/ORC]
  56. [https://web.archive.org/web/20141019233602/http://consumerenergyalliance.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/AK-Topline-Tables-Release.pdf Hickman Analytics]
  57. Carolyn Clift (L) 5%, J.R. Myers (I) 2%
  58. [http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/09/governor-races-headline-results CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  59. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_923925.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  60. Carolyn Clift (L) 3%, J.R. Myers (I) 2%
  61. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/239975371/AK-Sen-AK-Gov-for-AFL-CIO-Sept-2014 Hays Research/AFL-CIO]
  62. [http://amandacoyne.com/politics/new-poll-has-walker-beating-parnell-in-2-way-governors-race/ Hays Research*]
  63. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_8051205.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  64. Carolyn Clift (L) 3%, J.R. Myers (C) 2%
  65. [http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  66. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_513.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  67. J.R. Myers (C)
  68. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_204.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  69. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AK_020713.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  70. (November 11, 2014). "2014 General Election November 4, 2014 Official Results". elections.alaska.gov.
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