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2012 United States Senate election in Montana

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FieldValue
election_name2012 United States Senate election in Montana
countryMontana
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2006 United States Senate election in Montana
previous_year2006
next_election2018 United States Senate election in Montana
next_year2018
election_dateNovember 6, 2012
image1File:Jon Tester, official 110th Congress photo.jpg
nominee1**Jon Tester**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**236,123**
percentage1**48.58%**
image2File:Denny Rehberg, official portrait, 111th Congress.jpg
image_sizex150px
nominee2Denny Rehberg
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2218,051
percentage244.86%
image3File:3x4.svg
nominee3Dan Cox
party3Libertarian Party (United States)
popular_vote331,892
percentage36.56%
map_image2012 United States Senate election in Montana results map by county.svg
map_size300px
map_captionCounty results
**Tester**:
**Rehberg**:
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionJon Tester
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionJon Tester
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Tester:
Rehberg:
The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic senator Jon Tester successfully ran for reelection to a second term, gaining 48.6% of the vote against Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg who received 44.9% of the vote and Libertarian candidate Dan Cox received 6.56% of the vote.

Democratic primary

Candidate

  • Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. Senator

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Denny Rehberg, U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor, former state representative and nominee in 1996
  • Dennis Teske, farmer

Withdrew

Endorsements

  • Conrad Burns, former U.S. Senator from Montana
  • National Rifle Association of America
  • Gun Owners of America

Results

The Republican primary was held on June 5, 2012.

General election

Candidates

  • Dan Cox (Libertarian), retired businessman
  • Denny Rehberg (Republican), U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor and former state representative
  • Jon Tester (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator and former state senator

Debates

Three debates were scheduled, including one with the Libertarian candidate whose ultimate influence on the race remains uncertain. The first, between Rehberg and Tester, was held on October 8, 2012, at 7 p.m. at Petro Theatre at the MSU Billings University campus. The debate was televised live by Montana PBS andbroadcast on KEMC/Yellowstone Public Radio and streamed on the Gazette's website. It was moderated by Steve Prosinski, editor of The Gazette, with questions from a panel of political reporters. Representatives from the Associated Students of Montana State University Billings, the student government, served as timekeepers.

Campaign

Former president of the Montana Senate and farmer Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns.

As of June 30, 2011, Jon Tester had saved $2.34 million in campaign funds. Tester has been accused by Republican Denny Rehberg's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and movie stars.

On February 5, 2011, U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg announced his intention to run for the U.S. Senate. but just before Rehberg's announcement he dropped out of the primary and announced he would instead seek the Republican nomination for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2012. Daines later won Montana’s other U.S. Senate seat in 2014.

As of early July 2010, Denny Rehberg had saved $1.5 million of an original $2 million in campaign funds. Rehberg accused Democrat Jon Tester's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and Hollywood while Rehberg's campaign relies primarily on in state donations. Tester's campaign countered that Rehberg has been funded by petroleum special interests and Wall Street.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee aired an attack ad against Jon Tester that mistakenly included a digitally manipulated photo of Tester (who has only two fingers on his left hand) with full sets of fingers. Another ad against Tester, from the Karl Rove group Crossroads GPS, falsely asserted that Tester had voted in favor of Environmental Protection Agency regulation of farm dust. In fact, Tester had praised the EPA for not attempting such a regulation. The vote cited in the anti-Tester ad concerned currency exchange rates.

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Jon Tester (D)$11,699,935$10,377,126$1,334,858$0
Denny Rehberg (R)$8,420,655$7,249,285$1,171,369$0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

  • Although organizations are listed here, it is illegal for corporations to contribute to federal campaigns. Only political action committees (PACs) and individuals may contribute to federal candidates and in limited amounts. These lists actually indicate aggregate contributions from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families.
Jon TesterContributionDenny RehbergContribution
League of Conservation Voters$82,332Alliance Resource Partners$36,500
Visa$47,400ExxonMobil$29,500
JPMorgan Chase$47,000Las Vegas Sands$25,000
Thornton & Naumes$46,600Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
WPP$38,350Murray Energy$24,068
Blackstone$34,000Devon Energy$20,400
Girardi & Keese$30,000Arch Coal$19,000
Pederson Group$29,500Yellowstone Bank$17,500
Comcast$28,500Marathon Oil$13,750
First Interstate BancSystem$28,400Koch Industries$13,500

Top industries

Jon TesterContributionDenny RehbergContribution
Lawyers/Law firms$1,084,445Oil & Gas$327,969
Retired$534,716Financial Institutions$277,474
Lobbyists$506,931Retired$268,693
Financial Institutions$438,763Leadership PACs$267,000
Leadership PACs$345,750Mining$169,318
Commercial Banks$299,818Lobbyists$150,050
Real Estate$280,945Real Estate$121,080
Insurance$211,009Misc Finance$94,655
Misc Finance$188,750Lawyers/Law Firms$89,338
Health Professionals$181,483Republican/Conservative$76,855

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJon
Tester (D)Denny
Rehberg (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 10–13, 20101,176±2.9%46%**48%**—6%
Mason-DixonMarch 14–16, 2011625±4.0%**46%**45%—9%
Public Policy PollingJune 16–19, 2011819±3.4%45%**47%**—8%
Public Policy PollingNovember 28–30, 20111,625±2.4%45%**47%**4%5%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 22, 2012500±4.5%44%**47%**6%3%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 2, 2012500±4.5%44%**47%**—9%
Public Policy PollingApril 26–29, 2012934±3.2%**48%**43%9%—
Rasmussen ReportsMay 2, 2012450±5.0%43%**53%**2%2%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 18, 2012450±5.0%47%**49%**2%2%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 20, 2012500±4.5%43%**47%**5%5%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 10–11, 2012656±3.8%**45%**43%8%3%
Mason-DixonSeptember 17–19, 2012625±4.0%45%**48%**1%6%
MSUOctober 9, 2012477±4.6%40%**43%**5%12%
Public Policy PollingOctober 8–10, 2012737±3.6%**45%**43%8%4%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 14, 2012500±4.5%**48%****48%**3%2%
Public Policy Polling/LCVOctober 15–16, 2012806±3.5%**46%**44%7%3%
Pharos ResearchOctober 19–21, 2012828±3.4%**48%**46%—5%
Pharos ResearchOctober 26–28, 2012799±3.5%**48%**47%—5%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 29, 2012500±4.5%**49%**48%2%2%
Mason-Dixon/Gazette State BureauOctober 29–31, 20126254.0%45%**49%**1%5%
Public Policy PollingNovember 2–3, 20128363.4%**48%**46%4%2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJon
Tester (D)Steve
Daines (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 10–13, 20101,176±2.9%**48%**37%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJon
Tester (D)Neil
Livingstone (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 10–13, 20101,176±2.9%**46%**35%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJon
Tester (D)Marc
Racicot (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 10–13, 20101,176±2.9%42%**49%**—9%

Results

Tester won re-election to a second term, albeit by a narrow margin. He received about 4% more of the vote than Republican Rehberg, but the difference in Tester and Rehberg's vote totals was less than the vote total of Libertarian Dan Cox, who received 6.6% of the vote.

By county

CountyTesterVotesRehbergVotesCoxVotesTotal
Beaverhead31.84%1,532**59.77%****2,876**8.4%4044,812
Big Horn**67.39%****3,141**28.08%1,3094.53%2114,661
Blaine**63.88%****1,834**31.24%8974.88%1402,871
Broadwater33.01%995**57.47%****1,732**9.52%2873,014
Carbon45.9%2,691**47.55%****2,788**6.55%3845,863
Carter15.74%125**77.58%****616**6.68%53794
Cascade**52.47%****18,246**41.96%14,5895.57%1,93634,771
Chouteau**48.19%****1,374**46.33%1,3215.47%1562,851
Custer43.21%2,283**49.31%****2,661**8.38%4525,396
Daniels32.6%327**60.52%****607**6.88%691,003
Dawson35.46%1,571**56.52%****2,504**8.01%3554,430
Deer Lodge**69.55%****3,122**23.37%1,0497.08%3184,489
Fallon29.78%422**59.28%****840**10.94%1551,407
Fergus33.94%2,063**58.12%****3,533**7.95%4836,709
Flathead37.17%16,223**55.38%****24,171**7.45%3,25243,646
Gallatin**51.63%****24,781**42.47%20,3865.9%2,83448,001
Garfield14.31%101**79.04%****558**6.66%47708
Glacier**69.6%****3,118**24.84%1,1135.56%2494,480
Golden Valley36.25%174**57.5%****275**6.25%30480
Granite38.53%657**52.49%****895**8.97%1531,705
Hill**58.93%****4,060**34.27%2,3616.81%4696,890
Jefferson40.92%2,685**51.65%****3,389**7.42%4876,561
Judith Basin35.94%441**57.13%****701**6.93%851,227
Lake**49.25%****6,561**42.92%5,7177.83%1,04313,321
Lewis and Clark**54.34%****18,189**40.17%13,4465.49%1,83933,474
Liberty40.48%1,341**53.12%****1,760**6.09%611,002
Lincoln34.62%3,091**56.90%****5,080**8.48%7578,928
Madison33.2%1,516**58.91%****2,690**7.88%3604,566
McCone32.9%332**61.05%****616**6.05%611,009
Meagher34.93%342**55.57%****544**9.5%93979
Mineral42.66%866**47.44%****963**9.9%2012,030
Missoula**63.49%****36,488**31.64%18,1844.87%2,79957,471
Musselshell28.58%684**61.14%****1,463**10.28%2462,393
Park**48.22%****4,260**43.94%3,8827.84%6938,835
Petroleum24.41%73**67.56%****202**8.03%24299
Phillips27.2%607**65.64%****1,465**7.17%1602,232
Pondera43.53%1,187**49.69%****1,355**6.78%1852,727
Powder River23.32%239**70.15%****719**6.54%671,025
Powell41.75%1,167**51.2%****1,431**7.05%1972,795
Prairie33.33%236**59.32%****420**7.34%52708
Ravalli38.65%8,602**53.87%****11,990**7.48%1,66622,258
Richland30.18%1,406**62.95%****2,933**6.87%3204,659
Roosevelt**61.41%****2,269**33.42%1,2355.17%1913,695
Rosebud**48.0%****1,704**44.45%1,5787.55%2683,550
Sanders34.31%2,044**54.04%****3,219**11.65%6945,957
Sheridan42.23%812**51.74%****995**6.03%1161,923
Silver Bow**69.29%****11,673**24.62%4,1486.09%1,02616,847
Stillwater36.66%1,732**56.84%****2,684**6.52%3084,724
Sweet Grass31.19%661**62.67%****1,328**6.13%1302,119
Teton40.48%1,341**53.12%****1,760**6.4%2123,313
Toole34.01%721**57.03%****1,209**8.96%1902,120
Treasure33.98%157**54.55%****252**11.47%53462
Valley44.98%1,749**46.91%****1,824**8.1%3153,888
Wheatland36.79%365**56.35%****559**6.85%68992
Wibaux27.39%149**62.32%****339**10.29%56544
Yellowstone**47.15%****32,565**46.44%32,0776.42%4,43269,074

;Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
  • Gallatin (largest city: Bozeman)
  • Yellowstone (largest municipality: Billings)

;Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Mineral (largest city: Superior)
  • Sheridan (largest city: Plentywood)

Source:

References

References

  1. Johnson, Charles S.. (June 19, 2010). "Speculation on 2012 elections in high gear". [[Billings Gazette]].
  2. (November 2020). "Montana". The New York Times.
  3. Johnson, Charles S.. (February 5, 2011). "It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester". [[Billings Gazette]].
  4. Dennison, Mike. (January 19, 2012). "Political unknown drops into U.S. Senate race". [[Billings Gazette]].
  5. Johnson, Charles S.. (February 3, 2011). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". [[Billings Gazette]].
  6. "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS". [[Secretary of State of Montana]].
  7. (March 8, 2012). "Libertarian joins U.S. Senate race". [[Billings Gazette]].
  8. (October 5, 2012). "Senate battle hits Big Sky country".
  9. (September 26, 2012). "Debates to feature matchups in House, Senate and governor's races".
  10. Mike Dennison. (July 15, 2011). "Rehberg raises $900K in 3 months, trails Tester in U.S. Senate money". missoulian.com.
  11. Debbas, Jessica. (November 13, 2010). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". [[KTVM-TV]].
  12. Gouras, Matt. (September 30, 2010). "GOP attack ad shows five-fingered Tester shaking Obama's hand". Missoulian TV.
  13. McAuliff, Michael. (November 11, 2011). "Ad By Crossroads, Karl Rove's Outfit, Yanked Off Air For Being False (UPDATE)". Huffington Post.
  14. Drajem, Mark. (October 17, 2011). "EPA Says U.S. Rule on Farm Dust Won't Be Tightened After Review". [[Bloomberg L.P.]].
  15. (October 6, 2011). "U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 112th Congress – 1st Session, Vote No. 157". [[United States Senate]].
  16. Haberman, Maggie. (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com.
  17. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Tester Campaign Finances]
  18. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Rehberg Campaign Finances]
  19. OpenSecrets.org web site states "The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families."
  20. [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=MTS1 [[OpenSecrets]]
  21. Campaign finances by industry]
  22. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".
  23. "2012 Senate".
  24. "2012 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  25. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics.
  26. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120731181901/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_1116ND.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  27. [http://helenair.com/news/article_0f7d084c-5376-11e0-8b5c-001cc4c03286.html Mason-Dixon]
  28. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120619121731/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0621.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  29. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_12011205.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  30. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_rehberg_r_47_tester_d_44 Rasmussen Reports]
  31. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_rehberg_r_47_tester_d_442 Rasmussen Reports]
  32. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050112.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  33. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_rehberg_r_53_tester_d_43 Rasmussen Reports]
  34. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_rehberg_r_49_tester_d_47 Rasmussen Reports]
  35. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_rehberg_r_47_tester_d_43 Rasmussen Reports]
  36. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_91212.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  37. [http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/24/poll-close-contest-in-senate-battle-in-montana/ Mason-Dixon] {{Webarchive. link. (September 27, 2012)
  38. [http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/rehberg-tester-in-close-race-msub-poll-says/article_44f68d0e-66b3-58ab-a7fb-e3ff5a0905ec.html MSU]
  39. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1010121.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  40. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_tester_d_48_rehberg_r_482 Rasmussen Reports]
  41. [https://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/121017_montanapollingmemo.pdf Public Policy Polling/LCV]
  42. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/111056288/Montana-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012 Pharos Research] {{Dead link. (July 2018)
  43. [http://www.pharosresearchgroup.com/Home/Montana.pdf Pharos Research]
  44. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/montana/election_2012_montana_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  45. [http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/rehberg-holds-small-lead-over-tester-in-high-profile-senate/article_9fe929ec-8f85-5535-97cb-866f00be8bf5.html Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau]
  46. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZMT_1104.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  47. "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass". Montana Secretary of State.
  48. "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass".
  49. "2012 General Election Results By County".
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