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2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

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2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

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FieldValue
election_name2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
countryMontana
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2010 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
previous_year2010
next_election2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
next_year2014
election_dateNovember 6, 2012
image_sizex150px
image1File:Steve Daines, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
nominee1Steve Daines
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1255,468
percentage153.25%
image2File:Kim Gillan 2012 (3x4).jpg
nominee2Kim Gillan
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2204,939
percentage242.72%
map_imageMontana's at-large congressional district election, 2012 results by county.svg
map_captionCounty results
Daines:
Gillan:
titleU.S. Representative
before_electionDenny Rehberg
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionSteve Daines
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

Daines:
Gillan:

Montana's at-large congressional district

The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run unsuccessfully for the seat in the U.S. Senate. A primary election was held on June 5, 2012. Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Steve Daines, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2008
Eliminated in primary
  • Eric Brosten, author and engineer
  • Vincent Melkus, student at Colorado Mesa University and former Marine

Withdrawn

  • John Abarr, white supremacist and Ku Klux Klan organizer.

Hypothetical polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
AbarrSteve
DainesOtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 16–19, 2011382± 5.0%14%22%—64%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Kim Gillan, state senator from Billings

Eliminated in primary

  • Sam Rankin, real estate salesman and candidate for this seat in 2010
  • Diane Smith, businesswoman
  • Dave Strohmaier, Missoula city council member
  • Rob Stutz, attorney
  • Jason Ward, farmer and construction manager for the Crow Nation
  • Franke Wilmer, state representative from Bozeman

Declined

  • Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for this seat in 2010
  • Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorKim
GillanSam
RankinDiane
SmithDave
StrohmaierRob
StutzJason
WardFranke
WilmerUndecided
Public Policy PollingApril 26–29, 2012332± 5.4%21%4%13%9%1%0%11%41%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • David Kaiser

General election

Endorsements

Organizations

  • National Republican Congressional Committee "Vanguard" Program

Organizations

  • Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSteve
Daines (R)Kim
Gillan (D)David
Kaiser (L)Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)November 2–3, 2012737± 3.6%48%44%3%4%
Mason-DixonOctober 29–31, 2012625± 4.0%51%40%1%8%
Pharos Research GroupOctober 26–28, 2012799± 4.9%52%45%–4%
Pharos Research GroupOctober 19–21, 2012400± 4.9%47%41%–12%
Public Policy Polling (D)October 8–10, 2012737± 3.6%43%34%10%12%
MSU-BillingsSeptember 27–30, 2012477± 4.6%36%23%3%38%
Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)September 23–26, 2012600± 4.0%36%34%5%25%
Mason-DixonSeptember 17–19, 2012625± 4.0%46%38%2%14%
Public Policy Polling (D)September 10–11, 2012656± 3.8%40%37%9%15%
Public Policy Polling (D)April 26–29, 2012934± 3.2%33%27%—40%
Public Policy Polling (D)June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%35%27%—38%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
Abarr (R)Kim
Gillan (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%30%26%—44%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
Abarr (R)Franke
Wilmer (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%33%25%—42%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSteve
Daines (R)Franke
Wilmer (D)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingApril 26–29, 2012934± 3.2%36%25%—39%
Public Policy PollingJune 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%35%25%—40%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2012
RothenbergNovember 2, 2012
Roll CallNovember 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
NY TimesNovember 4, 2012
RCPNovember 4, 2012
The HillNovember 4, 2012

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Missoula (Largest city: Missoula)
  • Glacier (largest city: Cut Bank)
  • Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)
  • Hill (largest city: Havre)
  • Blaine (largest city: Chinooko)

References

References

  1. Johnson, Charles S.. (February 5, 2011). "It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester". [[Billings Gazette]].
  2. "Montana 2012 Primary and General Election Calendar". [[Secretary of State of Montana.
  3. Slate, Judy. (February 3, 2011). "Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race". [[KXLF-TV.
  4. Johnson, Charles S.. (February 2, 2012). "Star Wars is top issue for GOP House candidate". [[Billings Gazette]].
  5. Johnson, Charles S.. (March 6, 2012). "Ex-Marine from Hardin files for Montana's U.S. House seat". [[Missoulian]].
  6. "More inclusive KKK chapter makes some suspicious".
  7. (October 5, 2011). "Republican Mont. candidate for Congress with KKK ties drops out due to lack of support". [[The Washington Post]]}}{{dead link.
  8. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0705.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  9. [https://sosmt.gov/wp-content/uploads/attachments/2012_PRIMARY_STATEWIDE_CANVASS.PDF State of Montana. Official Canvas] Retrieved December 20, 2022
  10. Banks, Marnee. (June 21, 2011). "Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House". [[KPAX-TV.
  11. (March 9, 2012). "Billings real estate agent Rankin joins U.S. House race as Demo". [[Independent Record]].
  12. Dennison, Mike. (November 3, 2011). "Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race". [[Billings Gazette]].
  13. Weller, Allyson. (June 18, 2011). "Strohmaier announces run for Congress". [[KPAX-TV.
  14. Banks, Marnee. (August 10, 2011). "Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House". [[KRTV]].
  15. Johnson, Charles S.. (January 20, 2012). "Crow tribal member files as Democrat for U.S. House seat". [[Missoulian]].
  16. Banks, Marnee. (February 1, 2011). "Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid". [[KRTV]].com.
  17. (March 14, 2012). "Gopher not running for Congress; she sets eye on Senate in 2014". [[Independent Record]].
  18. Drucker, David M.. (June 9, 2011). "Could Schweitzer Challenge Baucus in 2014?". [[Roll Call]].
  19. Johnson, Charles S.. (July 28, 2011). "Schweitzer says his future isn't in Congress". [[Billings Gazette]].
  20. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050112.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  21. Dennison, Mike. (March 13, 2012). "Filing deadline: Busy day precedes busy election season". [[Independent Record]].
  22. "CANDIDATES".
  23. "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC.
  24. [https://web.archive.org/web/20150905222628/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZMT_1104.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)]
  25. [https://web.archive.org/web/20121105100321/http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/daines-stakes-out-solid-lead-over-gillan-in-u-s/article_a7560897-e7c9-5f1b-a85a-2386b2b932e7.html Mason-Dixon]
  26. [https://web.archive.org/web/20121119152013/http://www.pharosresearchgroup.com/Home/Montana.pdf Pharos Research Group]
  27. [https://web.archive.org/web/20150906003712/http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/pharos-research-group-16247 Pharos Research Group]
  28. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1010121.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)]
  29. [http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/billingsgazette.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/c7/2c7c9c65-1304-5b29-a62c-9717f8c30079/5076638daf20c.pdf.pdf MSU-Billings]
  30. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/109133151/MT-AL-Mellman-Group-for-JET-PAC-DGA-Sept-2012 Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)]
  31. [http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/poll-lead-in-house-race-goes-to-daines/article_d6cd4f8f-4f01-52c6-bdeb-91ef2329b0dd.html Mason-Dixon]
  32. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_91212.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)]
  33. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050112.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)]
  34. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0630House.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)]
  35. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0630House.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  36. (November 5, 2012). "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com.
  37. (November 2, 2012). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com.
  38. [http://www.rollcall.com/politics/race-ratings-chart-2012-house-elections.html], {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
  39. [http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/ Crystal Ball], {{As of. 2012. 11. 05
  40. [http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house House Race Ratings], ''The New York Times'', {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
  41. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html], {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
  42. (November 3, 2012). "House Ratings". The Hill.
  43. "2012 General Canvass".
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