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2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut

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2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut

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FieldValue
election_name2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut
countryConnecticut
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2006 United States Senate election in Connecticut
previous_year2006
next_election2018 United States Senate election in Connecticut
next_year2018
turnout60.9% (voting eligible)
election_date
image_sizex150px
image1File: Chris murphy official photo govtrends version cropped.jpg
nominee1**Chris Murphy**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
alliance1Working Families
popular_vote1**828,761**
percentage1**54.82%**
image2File:Linda McMahon Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic.jpg
nominee2Linda McMahon
party2Republican Party (United States)
alliance2Independent
popular_vote2651,089
percentage243.07%
map{{switcher220px
map_caption**Murphy**:
**McMahon**:
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionJoe Lieberman
before_partyIndependent
after_electionChris Murphy
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

|County results |220px |Municipality results |[[File:2018 Connecticut state comptroller election results map by congressional district.svg|220px|]] |Congressional district results}} McMahon:
The 2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held on November 6, 2012, in conjunction with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primaries to elect Senate candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties were held on Tuesday, August 14, 2012.

Incumbent U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman, an independent who caucused with the Democratic Party, decided to retire instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. Republican businesswoman and future Secretary of Education Linda McMahon faced Democratic representative Chris Murphy in the general election and lost, marking two defeats in two years. Elected at the age of 39, Chris Murphy would be the youngest senator in the 113th United States Congress. Murphy's victory marked the first time since 1967 to have the state's entire Democratic congressional delegation.

Background

In the 2006 election, incumbent Joe Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primary by businessman Ned Lamont and formed his own party, Connecticut for Lieberman, winning re-election. Lieberman promised to remain in the Senate Democratic Caucus, but had since stood against the Democrats on many significant issues, including his endorsement of Republican 2008 presidential nominee John McCain over Barack Obama. As a result, Lieberman's poll numbers among Democrats dropped significantly.

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal was reportedly considering a run against Lieberman, but instead ran for and won Connecticut's other Senate seat in 2010 after U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd announced his retirement.

Lieberman had publicly floated the possibility of running as a Democrat, Republican, or an independent. However, on January 19, 2011, he announced that he would not run for another term.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Susan Bysiewicz, former Connecticut Secretary of State
  • Chris Murphy, U.S. Representative
  • Sylvester Salcedo, attorney
  • Lee Whitnum, anti-AIPAC activist and software engineer

Withdrawn

  • Matthew Oakes, activist (endorsed Murphy)
  • William Tong, State Representative (running for re-election; endorsed Murphy)

Debates

The first Democratic debate took place on February 23, 2012, with Murphy, Bysiewicz, and Tong participating. The first televised debate was held on April 5, with Murphy, Bysiewicz, Tong, Oakes, and Whitnum participating. A debate was held at UConn on April 9, with the five candidates participating. A debate sponsored by WFSB took place on April 15, with all five taking part.

Convention

Delegates of the Connecticut Democratic Party endorsed Chris Murphy at their state party convention held on May 12. Murphy was the choice of 1,378 delegates (76 percent), while Susan Bysiewicz won 444 delegates (24 percent), enough to qualify for the August 14 primary. Matthew Oakes received the support of one delegate from Hartford. Lee Whitnum's name was not placed in nomination.

Endorsements

Politicians

  • Bill Clinton, 42nd President of the United States
  • George Jepsen, Connecticut attorney general
  • Kevin Lembo, Connecticut comptroller
  • Dan Malloy, Connecticut governor
  • Denise Merrill, Connecticut secretary of the state
  • Matthew Oakes, disabled American and former U.S. Senate candidate
  • Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States
  • William Tong, state representative and former U.S. Senate candidate
  • Nancy Wyman, Connecticut lieutenant governor

Organizations

  • AFL-CIO (American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations)

  • Connecticut High School Democrats

  • NARAL Pro-Choice America

  • EMILY's List

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSusan
BysiewiczChris
MurphyWilliam
TongOtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 17–20, 2011400±4.9%38%**40%**21%
QuinnipiacSeptember 8–13, 2011447±4.6%26%**36%**1%2%35%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 2011400±4.9%33%**39%**8%19%
QuinnipiacMarch 14–19, 2012640±3.9%25%**37%**4%5%29%
QuinnipiacMay 29 – June 3, 2012538±4.2%20%**50%**5%24%
Public Policy PollingJuly 26–29, 2012400±4.9%32%**49%**18%

Results

Results by county:

]]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Brian Hill, attorney
  • Peter Lumaj, attorney
  • Linda McMahon, businesswoman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010
  • Chris Shays, former U.S. Representative
  • Kie Westby, attorney

Declined

  • John Ratzenberger, actor

Debates

A debate sponsored by the Norwich Bulletin took place on April 19, 2012, with McMahon, Shays, Lumaj, Hill, and Westby in attendance. The debate was not televised. The first televised debate took place on April 22, 2012, sponsored by WFSB. All five candidates participated.

Convention

Delegates of the Connecticut Republican Party endorsed Linda McMahon at their state party convention held on May 18. McMahon was the choice of 730 delegates (60 percent), while Chris Shays won 389 delegates (32 percent), enough to qualify for the August 14 primary. Brian K. Hill, Peter Lumaj, and Kie Westby did not meet the 15 percent threshold necessary to automatically qualify for the primary, receiving the support of 62, 22, and 5 delegates, respectively. Hill pursued a post-convention attempt to petition his way onto the primary ballot, but fell short of the 8,319 signatures required and suspended his campaign in June.

Endorsements

Politicians

  • Penny Bacchiochi, Connecticut State Representative from the 52nd district
  • Roy Blunt, U.S. Senator (R-MO), and former Congressman
  • Sam Caligiuri, former State Senator, and 2010 nominee for Connecticut's 5th congressional district
  • Michael Fedele, former Connecticut lieutenant governor
  • Mark Lauretti, Mayor of Shelton, Connecticut
  • John McCain, U.S. Senator (R-AZ), and 2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
  • John McKinney, minority leader of the Connecticut Senate
  • Dick Morris, political author and Fox News commentator who previously worked as a pollster, political campaign consultant, and general political consultant and former adviser to President Bill Clinton
  • Peter Schiff, economist noted for predicting the housing bubble, and 2010 Senate candidate
  • Rob Simmons, former U.S. Representative for Connecticut's 2nd congressional district

Organizations

  • AFL-CIO (American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations)
  • League of Conservation Voters

Newspapers

  • The Norwich Bulletins editorial board

Politicians

  • Mark Boughton, mayor of Danbury and Republican nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010

Organizations

  • GOProud Politicians
  • Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and former 2012 presidential candidate

Organizations

  • Republican Liberty Caucus

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJason
McCoyLinda
McMahonChris
ShaysOtherUndecided
QuinnipiacSeptember 8–13, 2011332±5.4%**50%**35%2%12%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 2011400±4.9%3%**60%**27%10%
QuinnipiacMarch 14–19, 2012429±4.7%**51%**42%1%6%
QuinnipiacMay 29 – June 3, 2012381±5.0%**59%**30%1%9%
Public Policy PollingJuly 26–29, 2012400±4.9%**68%**20%12%

Results

Results by county:

]]

General election

Candidates

  • Linda McMahon (Republican, Independent), businesswoman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010
  • Chris Murphy (Democratic, Working Families), U.S. Representative
  • Paul Passarelli (Libertarian)

Campaign

Susan Bysiewicz was the first to declare herself as a candidate. However, by March 2011 Chris Murphy had raised over $1 million to Bysiewicz's $500,000. Murphy had won election to Connecticut's 5th congressional district, which is considered Republican-leaning, and he promoted himself as the most electable candidate against a Republican challenger. Bysiewicz, the former Secretary of the State of Connecticut, enjoyed high name recognition while a statewide officeholder, and had a formidable face-off with Murphy. William Tong, a state representative, joined the race touting his biography as the son of Chinese immigrants working at a Chinese restaurant. In January East Hartford resident Matthew John Oakes announced his candidacy. Oakes pointed to his real-life experience being a disabled American, victim of crime, and civil rights activist, growing up in the inner city and being a political outsider.

Wide speculation continued on Linda McMahon, who had lost in a widely publicized race for senator in 2010. She lost the election decisively, but had strong finances and a well-established political organization. McMahon met with her former campaign consultant to review her 2010 results, and said she was leaning towards running. She planned to make a decision regarding another run after the start of 2012. Former congressman Chris Shays joined in August 2011, promoting his involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan's military contracting. Shays campaign had also gained traction from a series of independent polls showing him beating or in a dead heat with the top Democratic contenders in the general election, while those same polls showed McMahon losing handily to each of the top Democratic contenders. The Shays campaign quickly capitalized on these polls, arguing for the former Congressman's electability while questioning McMahon's electability due to her loss in an open Senate seat contest in 2010 by a large margin despite spending $50 million of her own money, also citing her high unfavorable numbers among state voters, and the weak fundraising numbers of the McMahon campaign.

In July 2012, Shays declared that he would not support McMahon if she won the primary. He said that he had "never run against an opponent that I have respected less—ever—and there are a lot of candidates I have run against," adding that "I do not believe that Linda McMahon has spent the time, the energy to determine what [being] a senator really means." He also said that during the last debate he had with McMahon, "I thought she was embarrassingly clueless" and that "I think she is a terrible candidate and I think she would make a terrible senator." Although he said he would not support Chris Murphy, he expected him to win the Democratic nomination and the general election.

In September 2012, the records of the McMahons' 1976 bankruptcy and specifics of nearly $1 million unpaid debts from the proceeding were published. In days the candidate and her husband announced the "intention to reimburse all private individual creditors that can be located".

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Chris Murphy (D)$10,543,456$10,436,219$107,239$189,925
Linda McMahon (R)$50,956,502$50,262,442$351,464$1,250,000
Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Chris MurphyContributionLinda McMahonContribution
Moveon.org$112,864Morgan Stanley$31,050
Yale University$69,101Linda McMahon for Senate$26,174
League of Conservation Voters$47,388General Electric$24,250
Koskoff, Koskoff & Bieder$44,916Ott International$15,000
Travelers Companies$41,000Thor Industries$12,500
Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company$40,650JPMorgan Chase & Co.$11,231
Sullivan & Cromwell$36,500Ceci Brothers Inc.$10,000
Comcast Corporation$36,000Invemed Associates$10,000
Shipman & Goodwin$35,511Midstream Partners$10,000
Northeast Utilities$34,789Tudor Investment Corporation$10,000
Source: OpenSecrets

Top industries

Chris MurphyContributionLinda McMahonContribution
Retired$1,041,795Financial Institutions$121,717
Lawyers/Law Firms$861,258Retired$81,949
Financial Institutions$580,370Misc Business$55,302
Real Estate$319,466Manufacturing & Distributing$46,500
Leadership PACs$302,500Misc Finance$38,050
Insurance Industry$302,025Business Services$28,932
Health Professionals$285,150Real Estate$27,000
Democratic/Liberal$267,018Republican/Conservative$25,630
Universities$232,951Candidate Committees$24,874
Business Services$228,550Lawyers/Law Firms$24,372
Source: OpenSecrets

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorChris
Murphy (D)Linda
McMahon (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 17–20, 2011822±3.4%**54%**38%9%
QuinnipiacSeptember 8–13, 20111,230±2.8%**49%**38%11%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 2011592±4.0%**50%**43%6%
QuinnipiacMarch 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%**52%**37%9%
QuinnipiacMay 29 – June 3, 20121,408±2.6%**46%**43%9%
Public Policy PollingJuly 26–29, 2012771±3.5%**50%**42%8%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 21, 2012500±4.5%46%**49%**5%
Public Policy PollingAugust 22–23, 2012881±3.3%**48%**44%8%
QuinnipiacAugust 22–26, 20121,472±2.6%46%**49%**4%
Univ. of Connecticut/Hartford CourantSeptember 11–16, 2012517±4.0%**37%**33%1%28%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 24–26, 2012801±3.5%**48%**42%10%
Quinnipiac University PollSeptember 28 – October 2, 20121,696±2.5%47%**48%**5%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 7, 2012500±4.5%**51%**46%2%1%
Siena Research InstituteOctober 4–14, 2012552±4.2%**46%**44%8%
Univ. of Connecticut/Hartford CourantOctober 11–16, 2012574±4%**44%**38%17%
Public Policy Polling/LCVOctober 15–16, 20121,015±3.1%**48%**44%8%
Mason-DixonOctober 15–17, 2012625±4%**44%****44%**12%
SurveyUSAOctober 19–21, 2012575±4.2%**47%**43%3%4%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 21, 2012500±4.5%**48%**47%2%3%
QuinnipiacOctober 19–22, 20121,412±2.6%**49%**43%1%7%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 28, 2012500±4.5%**51%**45%1%3%
Public Policy PollingNovember 1–2, 20121,220±2.8%**52%**43%4%

With Mark Boughton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSusan
Bysiewicz (D)Mark
Boughton (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 17–20, 2011822±3.4%**44%**34%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorChris
Murphy (D)Mark
Boughton (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 17–20, 2011822±3.4%**52%**29%19%

With Susan Bysiewicz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSusan
Bysiewicz (D)Linda
McMahon (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 17–20, 2011822±3.4%**50%**39%12%
QuinnipiacSeptember 8–13, 20111,230±2.8%**46%**38%12%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 2011592±4.0%**47%**46%7%
QuinnipiacMarch 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%**49%**39%9%
QuinnipiacMay 29 – June 3, 20121,408±2.6%42%**46%**9%
Public Policy PollingJuly 26–29, 2012771±3.5%**45%**42%13%

With Michael Fedele

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSusan
Bysiewicz (D)Michael
Fedele (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 17–20, 2011822±3.4%**45%**35%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorChris
Murphy (D)Michael
Fedele (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 17–20, 2011822±3.4%**51%**29%20%

With Scott Frantz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSusan
Bysiewicz (D)Scott
Frantz (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 17–20, 2011822±3.4%**45%**30%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorChris
Murphy (D)Scott
Frantz (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 17–20, 2011822±3.4%**51%**27%22%

With Joe Lieberman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJoe
Lieberman (I)Chris
Murphy (D)Peter
Schiff (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 2, 2010810±3.4%19%**39%**25%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJoe
Lieberman (I)Chris
Murphy (D)Jodi
Rell (R)Undecided
Research 2000January 11–13, 2010600±4.0%23%25%**47%**2%
810±3.4%33%**47%**20%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 2, 2010810±3.4%17%**37%**29%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJoe
Lieberman (I)Ned
Lamont (D)Jodi
Rell (R)Undecided
Research 2000March 23–25, 2008600±4.0%25%30%**42%**2%
Research 2000September 8–10, 2009600±4.0%26%26%**46%**2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJoe
Lieberman (I)Ned
Lamont (D)Alan
Schlesinger (R)Undecided
Research 2000March 31 – April 2, 2008600±4.0%37%**51%**7%5%
Research 2000June 30 – July 2, 2008600±4.0%36%**51%**7%6%
Research 2000November 11–13, 2008600±4.0%34%**59%**3%2%

With Chris Shays

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSusan
Bysiewicz (D)Chris
Shays (R)Undecided
QuinnipiacSeptember 8–13, 20111,230±2.8%40%**42%**16%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 2011592±4.0%37%**48%**16%
QuinnipiacMarch 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%42%**43%**13%
QuinnipiacMay 29 – June 3, 20121,408±2.6%40%**44%**11%
Public Policy PollingJuly 26–29, 2012771±3.5%40%**43%**17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorChris
Murphy (D)Chris
Shays (R)Undecided
QuinnipiacSeptember 8–13, 20111,230±2.8%**43%**37%17%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 2011592±4.0%**43%**39%18%
QuinnipiacMarch 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%**41%**40%17%
QuinnipiacMay 29 – June 3, 20121,408±2.6%**45%**37%15%
Public Policy PollingJuly 26–29, 2012771±3.5%**47%**38%15%

With Rob Simmons

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSusan
Bysiewicz (D)Rob
Simmons (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 17–20, 2011822±3.4%**42%**39%19%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 2011592±4.0%41%**42%**17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorChris
Murphy (D)Rob
Simmons (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 17–20, 2011822±3.4%**49%**34%18%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 2011592±4.0%**45%**36%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorWilliam
Tong (D)Rob
Simmons (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 2011592±4.0%32%**39%**29%

With William Tong

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorWilliam
Tong (D)Linda
McMahon (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 2011592±4.0%38%**45%**17%
QuinnipiacMarch 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%39%**43%**9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorWilliam
Tong (D)Chris
Shays (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 2011592±4.0%27%**46%**27%
QuinnipiacMarch 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%25%**50%**21%

Results

By county

CountyChris MurphyLinda McMahonVarious candidatesTotal votes castTotal828,76154.82%651,08943.07%31,9142.11%1,511,764
Fairfield202,53952.34%179,44046.37%4,9841.29%386,963
Hartford224,18759.17%148,75439.26%5,9531.57%378,894
Litchfield39,57744.28%48,31654.05%1,4921.67%89,385
Middlesex43,59153.96%35,47443.91%1,7162.12%80,781
New Haven199,77957.62%141,40840.78%5,5301.59%346,717
New London60,59555.43%46,05642.13%2,6672.44%109,318
Tolland35,78152.4%30,87745.22%1,6212.37%68,279
Windham22,71250.97%20,76446.6%1,0822.43%44,558

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

  • Fairfield (largest town: Bridgeport)
  • Hartford (largest town: Hartford)
  • Middlesex (largest town: Middletown)
  • New Haven (largest town: New Haven)
  • New London (largest town: Norwich)
  • Tolland (largest town: Vernon)
  • Windham (largest town: Windham)

Counties that flipped from Independent to Republican

  • Litchfield (largest city: Torrington)

By congressional district

Murphy won all five congressional districts.

DistrictMurphyMcMahonRepresentative
**60%**39%John B. Larson
**53%**45%Joe Courtney
**60%**39%Rosa DeLauro
**52%**46%Jim Himes
**51%**48%Elizabeth Esty

References

References

  1. Dr. Michael McDonald. (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". [[George Mason University]].
  2. "Candidate Committees, Exploratory Committees, and Durational Political Committees Organized for the November 6, 2012 Election". State of Connecticut, State Elections Enforcement Commission.
  3. (January 19, 2011). "'To everything there is a season:' Lieberman announces plan to end Senate run". [[Connecticut Post]].
  4. Geiger, Kim. (November 6, 2012). "Democrat Murphy beats GOP's McMahon in Connecticut Senate race". Los Angeles Times.
  5. Sargent, Greg. (December 17, 2007). "FLASHBACK: Lieberman Said He Wanted To Help Elect "Democratic President In 2008"". [[Talking Points Memo]].
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