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2010 United States Senate election in Connecticut

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2010 United States Senate election in Connecticut

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FieldValue
election_name2010 United States Senate election in Connecticut
countryConnecticut
typepresidential
ongoingYes
previous_election2004 United States Senate election in Connecticut
previous_year2004
next_election2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut
next_year2016
turnout45.9% (voting eligible)
election_dateNovember 2, 2010
image_sizex150px
image1Richard Blumenthal at West Hartford library opening (cropped).jpg
nominee1**Richard Blumenthal**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
alliance1Working Families
popular_vote1**636,040**
percentage1**55.16%**
image2Linda McMahon Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic.jpg
nominee2Linda McMahon
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2498,341
percentage243.22%
map{{switcher[[File:2010 United States Senate election in Connecticut results map by county.svg220px]]
map_caption**Blumenthal**:
**McMahon**:
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionChris Dodd
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionRichard Blumenthal
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

|County results |[[File:2010 United States Senate election in Connecticut results map by municipality.svg|220px]] |Municipality results |[[File:2010 United States Senate election in Connecticut results map by congressional district.svg|220px]] |Congressional district results}} McMahon:
The 2010 United States Senate election in Connecticut was a midterm election which took place on November 2, 2010, to decide a Class III Senator from the State of Connecticut to join the 112th United States Congress. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Chris Dodd suffered from dropping approval ratings in the past few years due to major controversies, leading him to announce in January 2010 that he would retire, instead of seeking a sixth term. As Dodd was a Democrat, Richard Blumenthal, incumbent State Attorney General, announced on the same day that he would run for Dodd's seat. The Connecticut Democratic Party nominated Blumenthal on May 21. Businesswoman and future Secretary of Education Linda McMahon won the state party's nominating convention and the August 10 Republican primary to become the Republican candidate. This was the first open Senate seat in Connecticut since 1980, when Dodd was first elected. Blumenthal was the only non-incumbent Democrat to win a non-special election in 2010.

Background

Controversies

Chris Dodd's power and popularity may have deteriorated for at least three reasons since his last re-election:

  1. His poor performance in his bid for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination appears to have soured local voters. Dodd was criticized for moving to Iowa and neglecting his Senate duties to pursue what many in Connecticut saw as a hopeless campaign. That poll, showing Dodd's job approval at 51% was taken before the scandals.
  2. Dodd received mortgage loans as part of the "Friends of Angelo Mozilo" program run by subprime mortgage lender Countrywide Financial. The Hartford Courant reported that Dodd had taken a "major credibility hit" from this scandal. A later poll in September 2008 showed Dodd's job approval declining to 43%, with 46% terming his job performance as "fair" or "poor".
  3. On March 18, Dodd admitted responsibility for adding provisions in the 2009 stimulus package that allowed for controversial employee bonuses. He had previously denied responsibility, saying the Administration pushed for the bonus clauses. Dodd only admitted wrongdoing after an unnamed source within the Treasury Department provided insider information to CNN. On March 19, after Dodd came forward, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner took full responsibility, saying he pushed Dodd against executive bonus limits.

In December 2008, it was reported that Dodd had a little less than $670,000 banked for a re-election campaign, far less than other senators anticipated to seek re-election. In February 2009, a poll indicated that Dodd's favorability ratings were slipping, and many Connecticut voters were not satisfied with Dodd's explanations regarding the mortgage.

On March 17, 2009, the NRSC released a web ad attacking Dodd for his Irish cottage, his mortgage, and his relocation to Iowa in 2007.

Election troubles

U.S. Senator Chris Dodd
Chris Dodd faced rising Disapproval ratings during his Senate term throughout '09 - '10

On March 2, 2009, noted pundit Michael Barone suggested Dodd was "ripe for the picking" in the 2010 election due to the fallout from his various controversies. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight suggested that if necessary, another Connecticut Democrat should primary Dodd. Silver rated Dodd as the single most vulnerable incumbent senator up for re-election in 2010. On December 10, 2009, the Cook Political Report listed this race as "Lean Republican."

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Susan Bysiewicz was quoted suggesting Dodd's yet unannounced re-election bid could be a drag on the candidacies of other Connecticut Democrats in 2010.

Many political leaders speculated Dodd could be persuaded to retire so as to preserve his "senior statesman" legacy. Fellow Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman had indicated that he would have supported Dodd's reelection, despite past disagreements, including Dodd's 2006 endorsement of Ned Lamont and Lieberman's support of John McCain's 2008 Presidential Campaign.

In fundraising reports issued for the first quarter of 2009, Dodd reported having raised over $1 million, but reported only five contributions from Connecticut residents.

Polling

A March 2009 Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll confirmed Dodd's vulnerability. On April 2, 2009, Quinnipiac released a poll indicating Dodd in serious danger of losing re-election, despite the fact that Connecticut is a heavily blue state that President Obama won in 2008 with over 60% of the vote.

He failed to attain a 50% level of support against three lesser known possible Republican opponents. Former U.S. Congressman Rob Simmons (R) in particular was leading in general election polling with double digit margins, and Simmons reached as high as 51% in a GQR poll. Notably, Rasmussen Reports had Simmons 48% to 35% over Dodd in December 2009, a thirteen-point spread.

Democratic nomination

Candidates

  • Richard Blumenthal, state Attorney General
  • Merrick Alpert, former aide to David Walters and Al Gore
  • Lee Whitnum, businesswoman

Withdrew

  • Christopher Dodd, Incumbent U.S. Senator, dropped out and decided to retire

Campaign

Merrick Alpert announced his candidacy to challenge current Senator Chris Dodd in May 2009. Facing grave prospects at re-election, Dodd announced his retirement from the Senate on January 6, 2010. Richard Blumenthal, the Attorney General and former State Senator announced he would be running.

Debate

Merrick Alpert and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal squared-off in a March 1 debate highlighting important issues. On healthcare, Alpert revealed his support for a single-payer system. Blumenthal explained that pool-purchasing powers should be explored. Alpert presented information as to how insurance rates had skyrocketed in Connecticut since the Attorney General took office. On the topic of war, Blumenthal pledged his support of President Obama's current plan. Alpert expressed that, being a former peacekeeper in Bosnia, he understood what policies work and which ones do not, elaborating that the current one did not. Alpert set out a plan for the withdrawal of troops from the war in Afghanistan. On a question concerning relations with Cuba, Blumenthal explained that it would take time, and that he would put together a panel of Cuban-American people to decide the best course of action. Alpert explained that he would vote on the issue that night.

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredRichard BlumenthalMerrick AlpertLee WhitnumUndecided
QuinnipiacJanuary 8–12, 2010**84%**4%––12%
QuinnipiacMarch 9–15, 2010**81%**6%––13%

Results

Blumenthal won the convention overwhelmingly, disallowing any other candidate to get at least 15% of the vote necessary to get on the primary ballot. Therefore, Blumenthal went uncontested within the Democratic Party and officially became the Democratic nominee.

Republican nomination

Candidates

  • Linda McMahon (campaign) - businesswoman
  • Ethan Book, businessman - petitioned for placement in the Republican primary, but fell short.
  • Vincent Forras, founder and CEO of Phoenix Group and founder of the 9/11 charity, "Gear-Up, Inc."
  • Peter Schiff, securities dealer and investment advisor, economic adviser to Ron Paul's 2008 presidential campaign. Endorsed by the Tea Party.
  • Rob Simmons, former U.S. Congressman

Campaign

On February 27, 2009, Commentary magazine reported that various Washington, D.C. Republicans were seeking to get Larry Kudlow, a popular TV talk show host and columnist, to enter the race against Dodd. State Senator Sam Caligiuri originally planned to run the U.S. Senate, but after doing poorly in both primary and general election polling he decided to drop out and instead run the U.S. House of Representatives in the 5th District. Tom Foley also left the race to run instead for Governor of Connecticut, as incumbent Governor M. Jodi Rell was not seeking re-election.

After the Quinnipiac poll that showed him edging Dodd in a potential matchup, Simmons decided to officially enter the race. Upon his announcement, the DSCC attacked Simmons for his past support of George W. Bush and ties to Jack Abramoff and Tom DeLay. A leading state political blogger, who had endorsed Simmons' opponent in 2006, questioned whether these issues were relevant to the 2010 race. Simmons suspended his campaign after he lost the convention, but did not publicly endorse McMahon. In late July, Simmons revived his effort with a TV ad reminding Connecticut Republicans that "I'm still on the ballot."

McMahon, a billionaire, spent slightly more than $21 million through July 2010. Her two primary opponents each spent slightly more than $2.5 million each. When the Republican primary was held on August 10, frontrunner and party-endorsed candidate McMahon defeated Simmons and Schiff to become the official GOP nominee for the fall election against Richard Blumenthal.

Debates

On March 2, 2010, Republican candidates Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons, and Peter Schiff participated in the first debate of the GOP campaign on Fox 61.

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredRob SimmonsLinda McMahonPeter Schiff
Research 2000September 8–10, 2009**38%**––1%
QuinnipiacSeptember 10–14, 2009**43%**––2%
QuinnipiacNovember 3–8, 2009**28%**17%5%
Moore InformationDecember 15–16, 200935%**37%**4%
QuinnipiacJanuary 8–12, 2010**37%**27%4%
QuinnipiacMarch 9–15, 201034%**44%**9%
Research 2000May 24–26, 201044%**48%**––
QuinnipiacMay 24–25, 201023%**49%**11%
QuinnipiacJune 2–8, 201029%**45%**13%
QuinnipiacJuly 7–13, 201025%**52%**13%
QuinnipiacJuly 28 – August 2, 201030%**47%**14%
QuinnipiacAugust 3–8, 201028%**50%**15%

Results

Convention

  • Denotes candidate met the minimum threshold of 15 percent to appear on the primary ballot

Primary

Results by county

]]

** Peter Schiff collected 10,000 signatures to be placed on the ballot via petition.

General election

Two months prior to the general election, observers projected a "vicious contest" due to national committees having to focus attention and resources on Blumenthal's campaign due to revelations made in May that he had served in Vietnam during the Vietnam War (in reality, he had served in the Marine Corps Reserves for six years while receiving multiple deferments that kept him out of Vietnam). In contrast, McMahon was being labeled as CEO of WWE where "under her watch, violence was peddled to kids [and] steroid abuse was rampant".{{cite news|url=https://www.politico.com/story/2010/08/mcmahons-millions-buy-tight-win-040934|work=Politico|title=McMahon's millions buy tight win

Candidates

  • Richard Blumenthal (D), state Attorney General
  • John Mertens (CFL), professor of engineering
  • Warren Mosler (I), economist and entrepreneur
  • Linda McMahon (R), businesswoman

Debates

The first debate between Linda McMahon and Richard Blumenthal in the 2010 Senate race occurred on October 4, 2010, moderated by Fox News Channel anchor Bret Baier and televised live on Fox Connecticut. In the debate, McMahon identified Blumenthal as a career politician, touted her job creation record while CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, criticized Washington partisanship for Republicans not being invited to the negotiating table during healthcare reform discussions in Congress, and stated that remaining stimulus dollars were a waste that should now be used to pay down debt. Blumenthal as well criticized partisanship, saying that he would have sided with Republicans who voted against the Troubled Assets Relief Program. He also used the debate to argue that middle class tax cuts should not have to wait for current tax rates on top income earners to be extended, stated that he would oppose special interests in Washington, and criticized McMahon for outsourcing WWE products overseas.

The Greater Norwalk Chamber of Commerce, Bridgeport Regional Business Council, and Business Council of Fairfield County sponsored a second debate in Norwalk on October 7. It was aired on News 12 Connecticut.

A third debate between McMahon and Blumenthal was held on October 12, aired on WTNH sister network MyTV9.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political ReportOctober 26, 2010
RothenbergOctober 22, 2010
RealClearPoliticsOctober 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 21, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 26, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredRichard
Blumenthal (D)Linda
McMahon (R)
Public Policy PollingJanuary 4–5, 2010**60%**28%
Rasmussen ReportsJanuary 6, 2010**58%**34%
YouGovPolimetrixJanuary 6–11, 2010**47%**35%
QuinnipiacJanuary 8–12, 2010**64%**23%
Daily Kos/Research 2000January 11–13, 2010**56%**34%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 1, 2010**56%**36%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 2, 2010**60%**31%
QuinnipiacMarch 9–15, 2010**61%**28%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 7, 2010**55%**35%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 4, 2010**52%**39%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 18, 2010**48%**45%
QuinnipiacMay 24–25, 2010**56%**31%
Daily Kos/Research 2000May 24–26, 2010**52%**33%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 1, 2010**56%**33%
QuinnipiacJune 2–8, 2010**55%**35%
QuinnipiacJuly 7–13, 2010**54%**37%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 15, 2010**53%**40%
QuinnipiacJuly 28 – August 2, 2010**50%**40%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 11, 2010**47%**40%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 9, 2010**53%**44%
QuinnipiacSeptember 8–12, 2010**51%**45%
QuinnipiacSeptember 21–26, 2010**49%**46%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 26, 2010**50%**45%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 2, 2010**53%**41%
CNN/Time/Opinion ResearchOctober 1–5, 2010**54%**41%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion ResearchOctober 2, 2010**52%**42%
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerOctober 3–4, 2010**53%**38%
CT Capitol Report/Merriman River GroupOctober 3, 2010**52%**45%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 5, 2010**54%**43%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion ResearchOctober 9, 2010**49%**43%
QuinnipiacOctober 7–11, 2010**54%**43%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 14, 2010**51%**46%
Suffolk UniversityOctober 19–20, 2010**57%**39%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 18–24, 2010**54%**42%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 24, 2010**56%**43%
CT Capitol Report/Merriman River GroupOctober 24–26, 2010**52%**44%
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2010**54%**43%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 25–31, 2010**53%**44%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 31, 2010**53%**46%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebtAs of
Richard Blumenthal (D)$8,690,397$8,663,221$27,176$2,621,525November 22, 2010
Linda McMahon (R)$50,232,567$49,942,727$289,839$500,000November 22, 2010

:Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

By county

County**Richard Blumenthal**Linda McMahonVarious candidatesTotal votes castTotal636,04055.16%498,34143.22%18,7341.62%1,153,115
Fairfield146,92651.6%134,24247.15%3,5551.24%284,723
Hartford168,89158.44%115,62840.01%4,4591.55%288,978
Litchfield32,82444.98%38,88853.29%1,2671.73%72,979
Middlesex36,25855.44%27,99142.8%1,1501.76%65,399
New Haven153,37757.97%107,37640.58%3,8281.45%264,581
New London49,28657.36%34,81040.51%1,8322.13%85,928
Tolland28,63853.11%24,14844.78%1,1372.11%53,923
Windham19,84055.3%15,25842.53%7822.18%35,880

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Litchfield (largest city: Torrington)

By congressional district

Blumenthal won all five congressional districts.

DistrictBlumenthalMcMahonRepresentative
**59%**39%John B. Larson
**55%**43%Joe Courtney
**61%**38%Rosa DeLauro
**52%**47%Jim Himes
**50%**49%Chris Murphy

References

References

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  101. (February 11, 2010). "Election Results for United States Senator". [[Secretary of the State of Connecticut]].
  102. "Connecticut – Election Results 2010". [[The New York Times]].
  103. "Statement of Vote".
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