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2012 Montana gubernatorial election
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| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| election_name | 2012 Montana gubernatorial election |
| country | Montana |
| type | presidential |
| ongoing | no |
| previous_election | 2008 Montana gubernatorial election |
| previous_year | 2008 |
| next_election | 2016 Montana gubernatorial election |
| next_year | 2016 |
| election_date | |
| image1 | File:Steve Bullock.jpg |
| image_size | 150x150px |
| nominee1 | **Steve Bullock** |
| party1 | Democratic Party (United States) |
| running_mate1 | **John Walsh** |
| popular_vote1 | **236,450** |
| percentage1 | **48.90%** |
| image2 | Image:RickHill2 (cropped).jpg |
| nominee2 | Rick Hill |
| party2 | Republican Party (United States) |
| running_mate2 | Jon Sonju |
| popular_vote2 | 228,879 |
| percentage2 | 47.34% |
| map_image | 2012 Montana gubernatorial election results map by county.svg |
| map_size | 299px |
| map_caption | County results |
| **Bullock**: | |
| **Hill**: | |
| title | Governor |
| before_election | Brian Schweitzer |
| before_party | Democratic Party (United States) |
| after_election | Steve Bullock |
| after_party | Democratic Party (United States) |
| turnout | 72.18%2.32 |
Bullock:
Hill:
The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.
Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%. With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day. This was the last time anyone other than Greg Gianforte was the Republican nominee.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Steve Bullock, Montana Attorney General :*Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
- Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext :*Running mate: Steve Nelsen, founder of the Montana Conservation Corps
Withdrew
- Larry Jent, state senator
Declined
- John Bohlinger, Lieutenant Governor of Montana
- Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman
- Dave Wanzenried, state senator
- Pat Williams, former U.S. representative
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Steve | ||||||
| Bullock | Larry | ||||||
| Jent | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 573 | ± 4.1% | **70%** | 6% | — | 24% |
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Bob Fanning, retired businessman :*Running mate: Joel Boniek, former state representative :*Former running mate: Chuck Baldwin, pastor and Constitution Party nominee for president in 2008 (dropped out February 2012)
- Rick Hill, former U.S. representative :*Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator
- Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst :*Running mate: Ryan Zinke, state senator
- Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director :*Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and Carroll College Trustee
- Ken Miller, former state senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party :*Running mate: Bill Gallagher, Public Service Commissioner
- Jim O'Hara, Chouteau County Commissioner :*Running mate: Scott Swingley, private investigator and former trooper in the Montana Highway Patrol
- Corey Stapleton, former state senator :*Running mate: Bob Keenan, former president of the Montana Senate
Withdrew
- Jeff Essmann, Majority Leader of the Montana Senate
- Drew Turiano, real estate investor
Declined
- Denny Rehberg, U.S. representative (ran for the U.S. Senate)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | |||||||||||
| size | Margin of | |||||||||||
| error | Jeff | |||||||||||
| Essmann | Bob | |||||||||||
| Fanning | Rick | |||||||||||
| Hill | Neil | |||||||||||
| Livingstone | Jim | |||||||||||
| Lynch | Ken | |||||||||||
| Miller | Jim | |||||||||||
| O'Hara | Corey | |||||||||||
| Stapleton | Other/ | |||||||||||
| Undecided | ||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 403 | ± 4.88% | — | 1% | **33%** | 5% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 7% | **35%** |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 5% | 1% | **37%** | 3% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 35% |
Results
| | | | | | | | | | | | ]]
General election
Candidates
- Steve Bullock (D), Montana attorney general :*Running mate: John Walsh, brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
- Rick Hill (R), former U.S. representative :*Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator
- Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman :*Running mate: Marc Mulcahy
Debate
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 10, 2012
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 1, 2012 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 5, 2012 | |
| Rothenberg Political Report | November 2, 2012 | |
| Real Clear Politics | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| aggregation | Dates | |||||||
| administered | Dates | |||||||
| updated | Steve | |||||||
| Bullock (D) | Rick | |||||||
| Hill (R) | Other/Undecided | |||||||
| Margin | ||||||||
| Real Clear Politics | September 27 – November 3, 2012 | November 3, 2012 | 44.0% | **45.7%** | 10.3% | **Hill +1.7%** |
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Steve | ||||||
| Bullock (D) | Rick | ||||||
| Hill (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 836 | ± 3.4% | **48%** | **48%** | 2% | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | **49%** | 2% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 42% | **43%** | 8% | 7% |
| Montana State University | September 27–30, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.6% | 38% | **40%** | 2% | 20% |
| Mason-Dixon | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | **44%** | 43% | 2% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ± 3.2% | **44%** | 39% | 8% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | **39%** | **39%** | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 38% | **39%** | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 37% | **39%** | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ± 2.9% | 31% | **41%** | — | 28% |
With Bohlinger
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | John | ||||||
| Bohlinger (D) | Jeff | ||||||
| Essmann (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | **40%** | 33% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | John | ||||||
| Bohlinger (D) | Rick | ||||||
| Hill (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 39% | **40%** | — | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | John | ||||||
| Bohlinger (D) | Ken | ||||||
| Miller (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | **39%** | 33% | — | 28% |
With Bullock
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Steve | ||||||
| Bullock (D) | Jeff | ||||||
| Essmann (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | **42%** | 30% | — | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | **38%** | 33% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Steve | ||||||
| Bullock (D) | Neil | ||||||
| Livingstone (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | **41%** | 29% | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Steve | ||||||
| Bullock (D) | Ken | ||||||
| Miller (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | **41%** | 35% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | **40%** | 31% | — | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | **38%** | 34% | — | 28% |
With Jent
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Larry | ||||||
| Jent (D) | Rick | ||||||
| Hill (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | **39%** | — | 35% |
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Larry | ||||||
| Jent (D) | Neil | ||||||
| Livingstone (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | **30%** | — | **44%** |
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Larry | ||||||
| Jent (D) | Ken | ||||||
| Miller (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 25% | **33%** | — | **42%** |
With Wanzenried
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Dave | ||||||
| Wanzenried (D) | Jeff | ||||||
| Essmann (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 31% | **33%** | — | **36%** |
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Dave | ||||||
| Wanzenried (D) | Rick | ||||||
| Hill (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | **40%** | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Dave | ||||||
| Wanzenried (D) | Ken | ||||||
| Miller (R) | Other | Undecided | |||||
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | **35%** | — | **35%** |
Results
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Beaverhead (largest city: Dillon)
- Broadwater (largest city: Townsend)
- Carbon (largest city: Red Lodge)
- Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
- Custer (largest city: Miles City)
- Daniels (largest city: Scobey)
- Dawson (Largest city: Glendive)
- Fallon (largest city: Baker)
- Fergus (largest city: Lewistown)
- Flathead (largest city: Kalispell)
- Golden Valley (largest city: Ryegate)
- Granite (largest city: Philipsburg)
- Jefferson (largest city: Clancy)
- Judith Basin (largest city: Stanford)
- Liberty (largest city: Chester)
- Lincoln (largest city: Libby)
- Madison (largest city: Ennis)
- McCone (largest city: Circle)
- Mineral (largest city: Superior)
- Park (largest city: Livingston)
- Phillips (largest city: Malta)
- Pondera (largest city: Conrad)
- Powell (largest city: Deer Lodge)
- Prairie (largest city: Terry)
- Ravalli (largest city: Hamilton)
- Richland (largest city: Sidney)
- Rosebud (largest city: Colstrip)
- Sanders (largest city: Thompson Falls)
- Sheridan (Largest city: Plentywood)
- Stillwater (largest city: Columbus)
- Teton (largest city: Choteau)
- Toole (largest city: Shelby)
- Treasure (largest city: Hysham)
- Valley (largest city: Glasgow)
- Wheatland (largest city: Harlowton)
- Wibaux (largest city: Wibaux)
- Yellowstone (largest city: Billings)
Notes
References
References
- (22 February 2018). "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen.
- Michael Barone, et al. ''The Almanac of American Politics 2014'' (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245).
- Charles S. Johnson. (6 November 2012). "Networks declare Bullock winner in tight race for governor".
- Catanese, David. (September 7, 2011). "Bullock joins Montana governor's race". [[Politico]].
- Johnson, Charles S.. (March 9, 2012). "Bullock makes pick of Walsh as running mate official". [[Independent Record]].
- Banks, Marnee. (March 12, 2012). "Democrats Margolis & Nelsen enter race for MT Governor". [[KXLF-TV]].
- Johnson, Charles S.. (March 8, 2012). "Jent drops out of governor's race, leaving Bullock as lone Democrat". [[Billings Gazette]].
- Johnson, Charles S.. (June 12, 2011). "Bohlinger, Essmann eye governor's race". [[Billings Gazette]].
- Charles S. Johnson. (7 July 2011). "Wanzenried ends run for governor". [[Billings Gazette]].
- Johnson, Charles S.. (September 13, 2010). "Pat Williams not running for governor". [[Billings Gazette]].
- [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1205925.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS". [[Secretary of State of Montana]].
- Johnson, Charles S.. (October 4, 2011). "3 more GOP candidates running for governor". [[Billings Gazette]].
- Banks, Marnee. (March 12, 2012). "Long list of candidates running for U.S. House & MT Governor". [[KRTV]].
- Banks, Marnee. (February 13, 2012). "MT gubernatorial candidate Fanning loses running mate". [[KTVQ]].
- Johnson, Charles S.. (November 6, 2010). "Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor". [[Billings Gazette]].
- Reece, Myers. (January 18, 2012). "Rick Hill Announces Jon Sonju as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon.
- (February 12, 2011). "Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race".
- Johnson, Charles S.. (July 10, 2011). "Livingstone taps Zinke as running mate". [[Billings Gazette]].
- (October 13, 2011). "Jim Lynch announces candidacy for Governor". [[KTVQ]].
- Sherman, David. (March 12, 2012). "Lynch names Olszewski as running mate in MT governor race". [[KRTV]].
- Dennison, Mike. (August 9, 2010). "Republican former state senator from Laurel formally enters 2012 governor's race". [[Billings Gazette]].
- Reece, Myers. (February 6, 2012). "Ken Miller Announces Bill Gallagher as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon.
- Keegan, Charlie. (January 14, 2011). "Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor". [[KFBB-TV]].
- Johnson, Charles S.. (February 7, 2012). "O'Hara picks retired MHP officer as running mate". [[Billings Gazette]].
- Johnson, Charles S.. (July 19, 2010). "Stapleton bidding for governor". [[Billings Gazette]].
- Johnson, Charles S.. (February 7, 2012). "Stapleton picks Keenan for running mate". [[Billings Gazette]].
- (27 January 2012). "Essmann drops out of GOP race for governor".
- [http://www.greatfallstribune.com/article/20120117/NEWS01/120117001/Turiano-drops-gubernatorial-bid] {{dead link. (January 2018)
- (17 January 2012). "Turiano Drops Gubernatorial Bid". Flathead Beacon.
- Johnson, Charles S.. (November 11, 2010). "Rehberg focusing on current job". [[Billings Gazette]].
- [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050312.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FLMT_1130925.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- Johnson, Charles S.. (March 1, 2012). "Governor candidates talk about state economy". [[Independent Record]].
- "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".
- "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
- "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
- "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics.
- [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/governor/mt/montana_governor_hill_vs_bullock-1839.html Real Clear Politics]
- [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZMT_1104.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- [http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/poll-shows-hill-edging-bullock-in-tight-race/article_fc15146b-d133-5b0e-b51b-e16435d9fd02.html Mason-Dixon]
- [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1010121.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- [http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2012/MSUB_poll_Day%201_%2010-10-12.pdf Montana State University]
- [http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/poll-governor-s-race-about-even-bullock-hill/article_062cf741-101c-52b4-968c-36b9d89e17e7.html Mason-Dixon]
- [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_091312.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20110706113425/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_623.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20110504105047/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_1119.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass". Montana Secretary of State.
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