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2012 Missouri gubernatorial election

none

Field	Value
election_name	2012 Missouri gubernatorial election
country	Missouri
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2008 Missouri gubernatorial election
previous_year	2008
next_election	2016 Missouri gubernatorial election
next_year	2016
election_date
image_size	x150px
image1	File:MO Governors - 55 Jeremiah Jay Nixon (2009-2017) (52976934813) (crop).jpg
nominee1	Jay Nixon
party1	Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1	1,494,056
percentage1	54.77%
image2	File:Dave Spence bio pic (cropped).jpeg
nominee2	Dave Spence
party2	Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2	1,160,265
percentage2	42.53%
map_image	{{switcher
map_caption	Nixon:
Spence:
title	Governor
before_election	Jay Nixon
before_party	Democratic Party (United States)
after_election	Jay Nixon
after_party	Democratic Party (United States)

|[[File:2012 Missouri gubernatorial election results map by county.svg|275px]]|County results |[[File:2012 Missouri gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg|275px|]]|Congressional district results}} Spence:
The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. , this is the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri and the last time that a governor and lieutenant governor of different political parties were simultaneously elected in Missouri. Primary elections took place on August 5, 2012.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Jay Nixon, incumbent governor

Eliminated in primary

William Campbell
Clay Thunderhawk

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Dave Spence, businessman

Eliminated in primary

Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer
Fred Sauer, investment executive and anti-abortion activist
John Weiler

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bill
Randles	Fred
Sauer	Dave
Spence	John
Weiler	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	August 4–5, 2012	590	± 4.0%	15%	12%	42%	3%	29%
Mason-Dixon	July 23–25, 2012	400	± 5.0%	15%	1%	41%	3%	40%
Public Policy Polling	May 24–27, 2012	430	± 4.7%	11%	4%	32%	1%	43%
Public Policy Polling	January 27–29, 2012	574	± 4.1%	15%	—	11%	—	74%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Jim Higgins, former officer of the Libertarian Party of Missouri

Denied ballot access

Leonard Steinman

Results

General election

Debates

Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, September 21, 2012

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report		November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball		November 5, 2012
Inside Elections		November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics		November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jay
Nixon (D)	Dave
Spence (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 2–3, 2012	835	± 3.4%	53%	45%	—	2%
SurveyUSA	October 28–November 3, 2012	589	± 4.1%	48%	39%	5%	8%
Mason-Dixon	October 23–25, 2012	625	± 4%	48%	42%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling	October 19–21, 2012	582	± 4.1%	51%	40%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling	October 1–3, 2012	700	± 3.7%	54%	35%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling	August 20, 2012	500	± 4.4%	46%	37%	—	16%
Survey USA	August 9–12, 2012	585	± 4.1%	51%	37%	5%	6%
Chilenski Strategies	August 8, 2012	663	± 3.8%	53%	39%	—	9%
Mason-Dixon	July 23–25, 2012	625	± 4.0%	48%	39%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	May 24–27, 2012	602	± 4.0%	45%	34%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling	January 27–29, 2012	582	± 4.1%	47%	27%	—	26%

Republican primary

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Peter
Kinder	Bill
Randles	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	400	± 4.9%	34%	14%	53%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Peter
Kinder	Someone
else	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	400	± 4.9%	22%	35%	43%

General election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jay
Nixon (D)	Bill
Randles (R)	Other	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	July 23–25, 2012	625	± 4.0%	50%	35%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	May 24–27, 2012	602	± 4.0%	46%	32%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling	January 27–29, 2012	582	± 4.1%	47%	29%	—	24%
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	45%	24%	—	30%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jay
Nixon (D)	Matt
Blunt (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	50%	37%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	48%	38%	—	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jay
Nixon (D)	John
Danforth (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	39%	45%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jay
Nixon (D)	Kenny
Hulshof (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	51%	34%	—	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jay
Nixon (D)	Peter
Kinder (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	50%	31%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	48%	34%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling	March 3–6, 2011	612	± 4.0%	45%	38%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 29-December 1, 2010	515	± 4.3%	47%	39%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jay
Nixon (D)	Sarah
Steelman (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 29-December 1, 2010	515	± 4.3%	46%	35%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jay
Nixon (D)	Jim
Talent (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	47%	38%	—	14%

Results

Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Like his Senatorial colleague, Nixon was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Audrain (largest city: Mexico)
Clark (largest city: Kahoka)
Knox (largest city: Edina)
Lewis (largest city: Canton)
Mississippi (largest city: Charleston)
Monroe (largest city: Monroe City)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Andrew (largest city: Savannah)
Atchison (largest city: Tarkio)
Benton (largest city: Warsaw)
Caldwell (largest city: Hamilton)
Camden (largest city: Osage Beach)
Carter (largest city: Van Buren)
Cass (largest city: Harrisonville)
Cedar (largest city: El Dorado Springs)
Crawford (largest city: Cuba)
Dallas (largest city: Buffalo)
Daviess (largest city: Gallatin)
Dent (largest city: Salem)
Douglas (largest city: Ava)
Gentry (largest city: Albany)
Howell (largest city: West Plains)
Laclede (largest city: Lebanon)
Lincoln (largest city: Troy)
Livingston (largest city: Chillicothe)
Maries (largest city: Belle)
Morgan (largest city: Versailles)
Oregon (largest city: Thayer)
Ozark (largest city: Gainesville)
Phelps (largest city: Rolla)
Polk (largest city: Bolivar)
Pulaski (largest city: Fort Leonard Wood)
Ripley (largest city: Doniphan)
St. Clair (largest city: Appleton City)
Texas (largest city: Licking)
Vernon (largest city: Nevada)
Webster (largest city: Marshfield)

By congressional district

Nixon won five of eight congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.

District	Nixon	Representative
81.38%	13.21%	Lacy Clay
50.67%	47.37%	Todd Akin ([112th Congress](112th-united-states-congress))
	Ann Wagner ([113th Congress](113th-united-states-congress))
48.20%	49.08%	Russ Carnahan ([112th Congress](112th-united-states-congress))
	Blaine Luetkemeyer ([113th Congress](113th-united-states-congress))
49.16%	47.46%	Vicky Hartzler
66.00%	31.20%	Emanuel Cleaver
50.09%	46.96%	Sam Graves
43.75%	53.39%	Billy Long
48.27%	49.06%	Jo Ann Emerson

References

(December 16, 2010). "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election".
Redden, Susan. (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". [[The Joplin Globe]].
(25 August 2011). "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy".
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_805.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.stltoday.com/poll-results/pdf_44d876fc-d845-11e1-8152-0019bb30f31a.html Mason-Dixon]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_053112.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MOOH_013112.pdf Public Policy Polling]
"2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".
"PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
"2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
"2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics.
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_1104.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b373c0f0-6ba1-4c72-87a1-5027a4e51d07 SurveyUSA]
[http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/political-fix/todd-akin-draws-closer-to-claire-mccaskill-in-missouri-senate/article_0eaa7ba3-cac9-54c8-81d7-e29c9bf8ef3b.html Mason-Dixon]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_1021.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_1004.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_823.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ee08561c-b5c6-45c1-b62b-be0abddcfb85 Survey USA]
[https://www.scribd.com/doc/102750406/MO-Sen-MO-Gov-Chilenski-Strategies-for-Missouri-Scout-Aug-2012 Chilenski Strategies]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_020312.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_09201205.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_0914513.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_0504513.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_0311.pdf Public Policy Polling]
[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_1203513.pdf Public Policy Polling]
"State of Missouri - Election Night Results".
"Daily Kos".

Info: Wikipedia Source

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