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2011 New South Wales state election

Elections to the 55th parliament of New South Wales

Field	Value
election_name	2011 New South Wales state election
country	New South Wales
type	parliamentary
ongoing	no
previous_election	2007 New South Wales state election
previous_year	2007
next_election	2015 New South Wales state election
next_year	2015
seats_for_election	All 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
election_date	26 March 2011
opinion_polls	#Opinion polling
image1
leader1	Barry O'Farrell
leader_since1	4 April 2007
party1	Coalition (New South Wales)
leaders_seat1	Ku-ring-gai
popular_vote1	2,124,321
percentage1	51.15%
swing1	14.16
last_election1	35 seats
seats_before1	37 seats
seats_needed1	10
seats1	69
seat_change1	32
image2	{{CSS image crop	Image = Kristina Keneally.jpg
bSize	190	cWidth = 130	cHeight = 170	oTop = 7	oLeft = 22	Location = center}}
leader2	Kristina Keneally
leader_since2	[3 December 2009](2009-new-south-wales-labor-party-leadership-spill)
party2	Australian Labor Party (New South Wales Branch)
leaders_seat2	Heffron
popular_vote2	1,061,352
percentage2	25.55%
swing2	13.43
last_election2	52 seats
seats_before2	50 seats
seats_needed2
seats2	20
seat_change2	30
image3
leader3	No leader
party3	The Greens NSW
popular_vote3	427,144
percentage3	10.29%
swing3	1.33
last_election3	0 seats
seats_before3	0 seats
seats_needed3	46
seats3	1
seat_change3	1
1blank	TPP
1data1	64.22%
1data2	35.78%
2blank	TPP swing
2data1	16.48
2data2	16.48
map_image	2011 New South Wales state election.svg
map_size	400px
map_caption	Two-candidate-preferred margin by electorate
title	Premier
before_election	Kristina Keneally
before_party	Australian Labor Party (New South Wales Branch)
posttitle	Elected Premier
after_election	Barry O'Farrell
after_party	Liberal/National coalition

and 21 (of the 42) seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council 47 Assembly seats were needed for a majority

The 2011 New South Wales state election held on Saturday, 26 March 2011. The 16-year-incumbent Labor Party government led by Premier Kristina Keneally was defeated in a landslide by the Liberal–National Coalition opposition led by Barry O'Farrell.

Labor suffered a two-party swing of 16.4 points, the largest against a sitting government at any level in Australia since World War II. From 50 seats at dissolution, Labor was knocked down to 20 seats—the worst defeat of a sitting government in New South Wales history, and one of the worst of a state government in Australia since federation. The Coalition picked up a 32-seat swing to win a strong majority, with 69 seats–the largest majority government, in terms of percentage of seats controlled, in NSW history. It is only the third time since 1941 that a NSW Labor government has been defeated. It was also notable in that many of Labor's safest seats, such as Newcastle and Parramatta, were won by the Liberal Party on large swings. This election also saw the previous record for largest percentage of seats controlled by the Coalition, which won 74.2 percent of seats (69 out of 93 seats). The previous record for percentage of the legislature controlled was set by Neville Wran's Labor Party in the 1981 election, in which Labor won 69 out of 99 seats (69.7 percent).

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Future premier Dominic Perrottet and future opposition leader Mark Speakman entered parliament at this election.

Background

New South Wales electorates by party before the election

New South Wales electorates by party after the election

The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Kristina Keneally, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Barry O'Farrell, were the two main parties in New South Wales. In the 2007 state election, of 93 seats total, Labor won 52 seats, the Liberals won 22 seats and the Nationals, led by Andrew Stoner, who are in coalition with the Liberals, won 13 seats. Six seats were retained by independents. Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower house but achieved significant votes in 2007 include The Greens and the Christian Democratic Party.

On 18 October 2008, four state electorates (Lakemba, Ryde, Cabramatta, Port Macquarie) went to by-elections as a result of the resignation of the Premier, two of his ministers, and an independent who left after winning a federal by-election. The results in Ryde, Cabramatta, and Lakemba showed the largest by-election swing against Labor in its history.{{cite news | access-date= 20 May 2009 }} The results showed a significant swing towards the Liberal Party with a swing of 22.7 percentage points in former health minister Reba Meagher's seat of Cabramatta, but it was retained by ALP candidate Nick Lalich, and a swing of 13 points against Labor in former premier Morris Iemma's seat of Lakemba, also retained by an ALP candidate, Robert Furolo. Ryde, once a safe Labor seat, with a swing of 23.1 points delivered former deputy premier John Watkins' seat to Victor Dominello. Peter Besseling, the independent candidate, won Port Macquarie, left vacant after the resignation of Nationals-turned-independent member Rob Oakeshott, over the Nationals by a two-party margin of 54.5–45.5%, despite a swing of 23.7 points to the Nationals. On 19 June 2010 a by-election in the electoral district of Penrith{{cite news | access-date = 8 May 2010}} was triggered as a result of the resignation of Labor Party MP Karyn Paluzzano, with Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres winning the seat with a two-party-preferred swing of more than 25 points, the biggest swing against an incumbent government in New South Wales history, until the 2013 Miranda by-election which eclipsed it with a 26-point two-party swing against the Liberal/National government.{{cite news | access-date= 19 June 2010

Key dates

Expiry of 54th Parliament: 12am on Friday, 4 March 2011
Issue of Writs: 5 March 2011
Close of Nominations: 10 March 2011
Polling Day: Saturday 26 March 2011
Return of the Writs: 30 April 2011{{cite web |access-date = 24 March 2011 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110513183139/http://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/No_25_of_2011_0.pdf |archive-date = 13 May 2011 |url-status = dead
Meeting of 55th Parliament: By Monday, 16 May 2011

Campaign

The Labor Party launched their campaign on 5 February 2011{{cite news | access-date= 20 February 2011}} in Liverpool within the electoral district of Macquarie Fields.{{cite news | access-date= 20 February 2011}} Premier Keneally launched the Labor Party's campaign slogan "Protecting jobs – Supporting families". In attendance for the launch were former Prime Minister Bob Hawke and former Premiers Wran and Carr.

The Liberal and Nationals Coalition launched their campaign on 20 February 2011 at the Joan Sutherland Performing Arts Centre in Penrith within the electoral district of Penrith with the slogan: "Real Change for NSW". In attendance for the launch were both Liberal and Nationals Leaders O'Farrell and Stoner as well as federal Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott, former Liberal Premiers and Leaders Greiner, Fahey, and Chikarovski.{{cite news | access-date = 25 March 2011}}

The Coalition had been leading in opinion polling for almost three years, and were unbackable favourites throughout the campaign to win the election. The final Newspoll had support for Labor at an all-time low with 23 percent of the primary vote and 35.9 percent of the two-party vote. Bookmakers were paying $1.01 for a Coalition win with Labor getting as much as $36 and one agency even paid out the winnings and declared the winner a week earlier.{{cite news | access-date= 25 March 2011}} At one point, Labor was widely predicted to win as few as 13 seats, seven less than the actual result. According to several pollsters, Labor was in danger of losing several seats where it had not been seriously threatened in decades, as well as several that it had held for a century or more. Indeed, there were concerns that Labor would not win enough seats to form a credible shadow cabinet.

Resulting parliament

The Liberal/National Coalition won the largest proportional number of seats in NSW state history with 69 of 93 seats in the lower house (74.2 percent of the chamber)—in contrast, Labor won 69 of 99 seats (69.7 percent of the chamber) at Neville Wran's second "Wranslide" in 1981 election. Labor won 20 seats, the party's smallest presence in Parliament in over a century, and the worst defeat that a sitting government in NSW has ever suffered. Many prominent Labor MPs and ministers lost their seats including Verity Firth, David Borger, Matt Brown, Jodi McKay, Virginia Judge, Phil Costa and Kevin Greene. In the process, the Coalition took dozens of seats in areas considered Labor heartland, such as western Sydney and the Upper Hunter—some on swings of well over 10 per cent. The Liberals actually won 51 seats, enough for a majority in their own right—the first time the main non-Labor party in the state had achieved this since adopting the Liberal banner in 1945. Although O'Farrell thus had no need for the support of the Nationals, he opted to retain the Coalition.

In the upper house however, where half of the chamber was up for election, the landslide was not enough to deliver a Coalition majority. Three additional votes outside of the Liberal/National Coalition were required to pass legislation. The balance of power shifted from the Greens to the Shooters and Fishers Party and Christian Democratic Party. With two seats each held by the latter two parties, both needed to give legislative support if Labor and the Greens opposed legislation.{{cite news |date=27 March 2011 -- |title=Legislative Council, NSW election 2011 |work=ABC News |publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation |url=https://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/guide/lc-results.htm |access-date=27 March 2011}}{{cite news |date=27 March 2011 -- |title=Upper House shift from left to right |work=ABC News |publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation |url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/27/3174945.htm |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110501204325/http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/27/3174945.htm |url-status=dead |archive-date=1 May 2011 |access-date=27 March 2011}}

Retiring members

Where a Member of the Legislative Assembly or Legislative Council did not renominate to contest the election, their term ended at the dissolution of the parliament. Members who confirmed their retirement were:

Legislative Assembly

Labor (22)

Marie Andrews (Gosford)
John Aquilina (Riverstone)
Diane Beamer (Mulgoa)
David Campbell (Keira)
Barry Collier (Miranda)
Angela D'Amore (Drummoyne)
Tanya Gadiel (Parramatta)
Paul Gibson (Blacktown)
Kerry Hickey (Cessnock)
Phil Koperberg (Blue Mountains)
Grant McBride (The Entrance)
Gerard Martin (Bathurst)
Lylea McMahon (Shellharbour)
Alison Megarrity (Menai)
Frank Sartor (Rockdale)
Tony Stewart (Bankstown)
Joe Tripodi (Fairfield)
Graham West (Campbelltown)

Liberal (5)

Peter Debnam (Vaucluse)
Judy Hopwood (Hornsby)
Malcolm Kerr (Cronulla)
Wayne Merton (Baulkham Hills)
Michael Richardson (Castle Hill)

Nationals (2)

John Turner (Myall Lakes)
Russell Turner (Orange)

Legislative Council

Labor (4)

Tony Catanzariti
Kayee Griffin
Christine Robertson
Ian West

Greens (1)

Ian Cohen

Opinion polling

Opinion polling was conducted by firms such as Newspoll, Galaxy and Nielsen via random telephone number selection in city and country areas Sampling sizes consist of around 1200–1300 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Graphical summary

Primary votes

Two-party preferred

Voting intention

Date	Firm	Primary vote	TPP vote	ALP	L/NP	GRN
Nielsen	22%	50%	13%	15%	36%	64%
Newspoll	23%	49%	12%	15%	35.9%	64.1%
Galaxy	22%	51%	12%	15%	34%	64%
Essential	23%	55%	11%	11%	34%	66%
Essential	24%	54%	12%	11%	35%	65%
Newspoll	26%	50%	11%	13%	37%	63%
Galaxy	23%	50%	14%	13%	36%	64%
Essential	27%	51%	12%	10%	41%	59%
Newspoll	23%	46%	17%	14%	38%	62%
Nielsen	22%	53%	13%	12%	34%	66%
Nielsen	20%	51%	15%	14%	34%	66%
Newspoll	23%	46%	17%	14%	37%	63%
Morgan	22%	53%	13.5%	11.5%	35%	65%
Newspoll	23%	46%	17%	14%	37%	63%
Newspoll	25%	46%	14%	15%	39%	61%
Newspoll	25%	46%	16%	12%	39%	61%
Newspoll	31%	42%	14%	13%	45%	55%
Galaxy	29%	44%	14%	13%	43%	57%
Galaxy	29%	43%	15%	13%	44%	56%
Newspoll	26%	44%	17%	13%	41%	59%
Taverner	31%	43%		26%	45%	55%
Newspoll	30%	42%	12%	16%	45%	55%
Newspoll	32%	41%	14%	13%	46%	54%
Newspoll	31%	41%	14%	14%	45%	55%
Taverner					44%	56%
Newspoll	33%	40%	13%	14%	47%	53%
Newspoll	30%	42%	15%	13%	44%	56%
Newspoll	26%	43%	14%	17%	41%	59%
Newspoll	29%	42%	11%	18%	44%	56%
Newspoll	33%	40%	13%	14%	48%	52%
Taverner	28%	46%		26%	44%	56%
Newspoll	32%	41%	13%	14%	48%	52%
Newspoll	35%	38%	14%	13%	51%	49%
Newspoll	34%	39%	14%	13%	50%	50%
Nielsen	38%	42%	11%	9%	50%	50%
Taverner					51%	49%
38.98%	36.99%	8.95%	15.08%	52.26%	47.74%
Nielsen	41%	36%	10%	13%	56%	44%

Better Premier and satisfaction

Graphical summary

Date	Firm	Better Premier	O'Farrell	Keneally	O'Farrell	Satisfied
Nielsen	37%	53%	37%	54%	53%	34%
Newspoll	32%	48%	33%	59%	48%	39%
Galaxy	33%	53%
Galaxy	34%	50%
Newspoll	32%	47%	30%	57%	43%	35%
Nielsen	38%	52%	36%	58%	55%	33%
Galaxy	32%	54%	30%	62%	53%	33%
Newspoll	35%	40%	35%	49%	42%	33%
Newspoll	35%	42%	39%	50%	48%	32%
Newspoll	39%	39%	39%	44%	43%	33%
Newspoll	44%	36%	47%	37%	44%	33%
Newspoll	45%	30%	47%	31%	41%	34%
Galaxy	48%	35%	53%	30%	44%	36%
Newspoll	40%	31%	41%	26%	44%	30%
Galaxy	42%	34%	45%	25%	42%	35%
Newspoll	35%	34%			44%	30%
Nielsen	43%	40%	39%	49%	44%	36%
Newspoll	32%	33%	33%	51%	36%	36%
Newspoll	33%	32%	30%	49%	34%	34%
Taverner	33%	50%
Newspoll	33%	31%	34%	46%	35%	37%
Newspoll	34%	29%	37%	42%	39%	32%
Newspoll	30%	33%	34%	47%	40%	32%
Newspoll	35%	28%	39%	26%	41%	30%
Newspoll	32%	39%	26%	63%	37%	34%
Newspoll	36%	33%	28%	56%	33%	34%
Nielsen	45%	30%	34%	44%	not asked
Taverner			51%	29%	18%	19%
	–	–	–	–	–	–
Newspoll	58%	24%	47%	43%	31%	55%
*Remainder were "uncommitted", "fair" or "other/neither".

Newspaper endorsements

Newspaper	Endorsement
The Australian
The Australian Financial Review
Newcastle Herald
The Daily Telegraph
The Sydney Morning Herald

Results

Legislative Assembly

Main article: Results of the 2011 New South Wales state election (Legislative Assembly)

[[File:2011 NSW Legislative Assembly.svg]]	Party	Votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change	Coalition total	2,124,321
url = https://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/	title = Summary, NSW election 2011	ABC News]]	publisher = Australian Broadcasting Corporation	date = 27 March 2011
			Liberal	1,602,457	38.58	+11.64	51	27
		National	521,864	12.56	+2.51	18	5
		Labor	1,061,352	25.55	–13.43	20	30
		Greens	427,144	10.28	+1.33	1	1
		Christian Democrats	129,431	3.12	+0.65	0
		Hatton's Independent Team	45,969	1.10	New	0
		Family First	18,576	0.45	New	0
		Socialist Alliance	3,180	0.07	New	0
		Social Justice Network	3,173	0.07	New	0
		Independent Australia First	2,446	0.06	New	0
		Socialist Equality	2,056	0.05	New	0
		Democratic Labor	1,855	0.04	New	0
		United We Stand	1,414	0.03	New	0
		Progressive Labour	1,372	0.03	New	0
		Communist League	1,226	0.03	New	0
		Sex Party	676	0.02	New	0
		Democrats	617	0.01	–0.39	0
		Independent Protectionist	289	0.01	New	0
		Independents	314,066	7.56	–1.62	3	3
4,153,335	96.72	+0.18	–	–
137,260	3.20	+0.43	–	–
4,290,595	–	–	93	–
4,635,810	92.55	–0.09	–	–
		Coalition	2,324,226	64.22	+16.48
		Labor	1,294,824	35.78	–16.48

Legislative Council

Seats changing hands

Wyong			Labor	David Harris	6.9	–9.4	2.5	Darren Webber	Liberal

*Figure is Greens v Liberal
**Figure is from the 2007 state election, where Rob Oakeshott was the independent candidate.
In addition, the Liberals won Ryde and Penrith, which were gained from Labor at by-elections.
Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.

Every seat in New South Wales swung to the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis. The Coalition won the largest government in New South Wales history in a huge landslide, while Labor suffered the largest swing against a sitting government anywhere in Australia (and on any level) since World War II, as well as one of the worst defeats of a state government since Federation. This led to 12 consecutive years of Coalition government in New South Wales (the longest Coalition government and the third-longest state government overall in New South Wales history), until the Coalition was narrowly defeated in 2023.

The Liberals alone won more first preference votes than Labor (usually it takes both Coalition parties, the Liberals and the Nationals, to have a higher first preference vote than Labor).

Labor only had two safe seats after the defeat, both of which were in Western Sydney. The seats were Bankstown (on a 10.3% margin) and Liverpool (on a 14.7% margin). Labor only held five seats outside of Sydney (Cessnock, Keira, Shellharbour, Wallsend and Wollongong).

Ultimately, the Liberals won 27 seats from Labor (Blue Mountains, Camden, Campbelltown, Charlestown, Coogee, Drummoyne, East Hills, Gosford, Granville, Heathcote, Kiama, Londonderry, Maitland, Menai, Miranda, Mulgoa, Newcastle, Oatley, Parramatta, Riverstone, Rockdale, Smithdale, Strathfield, Swansea, The Entrance, Wollondilly and Wyong) while the Nationals won two seats from Labor (Bathurst and Monaro). The Nationals gained three seats from independents (Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth), which were Nationals seats held by personally popular independents. It is likely that Port Macquarie and Tamworth were regained by the Nationals easily due to a move by two independents in the federal seats of Lyne (Rob Oakeshott) and New England (Tony Windsor), which partially overlap with the respective state seats, which angered the locals, who are mostly liberal conservatives in some of the most safely-held Coalition seats in the country. The move that supposedly caused this was the decision of these two independents to support Julia Gillard, who formed a Labor minority government, over the Coalition under Tony Abbott (although Oakeshott stated that he would have supported the Coalition if Malcolm Turnbull was their leader instead of Abbott). Oakeshott and Windsor were personally popular in these seats (with Oakeshott even being an ex-National), but on traditional two-party-preferred contests, the Nationals were well ahead of Labor. The member for Port Macquarie, Peter Besseling, was friends with Oakeshott and previously worked as his advisor, thus angering Port Macquarie locals. Independents held just three seats after the election: Lake Macquarie, Northern Tablelands and Sydney.

The Greens won their first ever seat in New South Wales, the formerly-safe Labor seat of Balmain in inner-city Sydney, despite the Liberals winning the first preference vote.

References

(25 March 2011). "NSW Labor may only win 13 seats: ABC PM 25 March 2011". Abc.net.au.
(30 March 2011). "Avoid scandals, O'Farrell tells his MPs". News.smh.com.au.
(25 March 2011). "NSW must emerge from Labor's heart of darkness". News Limited.
(25 March 2011). "It's time for a state cleanout". The Daily Telegraph.
(25 March 2011). "NSW is overdue for change and renewal". Fairfax Media.
(29 July 2010). "Party totals, NSW election 2011". ABC.
(26 March 2011). "NSW State Election 2011". Electoral Commission of New South Wales.

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Newspaper	Endorsement
The Australian
The Australian Financial Review
Newcastle Herald
The Daily Telegraph
The Sydney Morning Herald