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2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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FieldValue
election_name2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky
countryKentucky
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky
previous_year2004
next_election2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky
next_year2016
election_dateNovember 2, 2010
image_sizex150px
image1File:Rand Paul, official portrait, 112th Congress alternate (cropped).jpg
party1Republican Party (United States)
nominee1**Rand Paul**
popular_vote1**755,706**
percentage1**55.73%**
image2JackConway (cropped).jpg
nominee2Jack Conway
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2600,052
percentage244.25%
map_image2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
map_size300px
map_captionCounty results
**Paul:**
**Conway:**
**Tie:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionJim Bunning
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionRand Paul
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

Paul:
Conway:
Tie: The 2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries for each respective party were held on May 18, 2010. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning decided to retire instead of seeking a third term. Republican nominee Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Congressman Ron Paul, won the open seat against Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway.

Background

In early 2009, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning, who won reelection by a surprisingly narrow margin in 2004, said he would need to raise $10 million for his re-election campaign. However, NRSC chairman John Cornyn pressured Bunning to retire due to concerns that he could lose a reelection bid. In July 2009, Bunning announced he would not run for re-election.

In February 2009, Senator Bunning stated that another justice could soon be appointed to the United States Supreme Court because Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, would be dead within nine months, creating a significant amount of controversy, which resulted in an apology from Bunning. Ginsburg would not die until 2020—outliving Bunning, who would die in 2017.

In late May 2009, Bunning called fellow Kentucky Senator and Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a "control freak" and suggested that he did not need McConnell's endorsement. He also challenged Lexington Herald-Leader editor John Stamper to an arm wrestling match after Stamper questioned whether Bunning was "fit to serve."

Additionally, Bunning created further controversy in February 2010 when he objected to a proposal of unanimous consent for an extension of unemployment insurance, COBRA, and other federal programs, citing that this extension was not pay-as-you-go. He proposed an amendment which sought to find the funds to pay for the bill from the Stimulus Bill of 2009, and declared that he supported the unemployed, but that a bill such as this only added to the growing deficit and that it should be paid for immediately. Senator Bob Corker joined Bunning, while other senators worked to cease his objections. When Senator Jeff Merkley urged him to drop his objections to vote on a 30-day extension of benefits, Bunning responded "tough shit." Bunning finally agreed to end his objection to the bill in exchange for a vote on his amendment to pay for the package. It failed 53–43 on a procedural vote. The extension of unemployment benefits then passed by a vote of 78–19.

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Rand Paul, ophthalmologist
  • Trey Grayson, Secretary of State of Kentucky
  • Gurley L. Martin, World War II veteran
  • Jon J. Scribner, businessman
  • John Stephenson, former Kentucky Superintendent of Public Education

Campaign

On August 20, 2009, a grassroots-planned moneybomb raised $433,509 for Rand Paul's campaign in a 24-hour period. According to Paul, this set a new record in Kentucky's political fundraising history (for a 24-hour period). Republican Liberty Caucus endorsed Paul in November 2009. On December 22, 2009, Rand Paul picked up the endorsement of Concerned Women for America. Paul embraced the Tea Party movement, and promoted "small government principles" one day after he officially entered the race for Kentucky's open seat. Paul ran a strong anti-Washington message. One commercial tied Grayson as part of the problem, noting that Grayson raised money with AIG executives in Washington. In another advertisement, Paul had also attacked Grayson as a career politician and a liar.

Grayson created a new website (randpaulstrangeideas.com) that attacked Paul for his "strange ideas," such as his opposition of the PATRIOT Act, and what Grayson alleged to be his support of closing down Guantanamo Bay and saying that Iran was not a threat. He also attacked Paul for being a Duke University fan. He sent out another TV ad and web video that stirred controversy by making the case that Paul believes that foreign policy decisions made prior to September 11, 2001, are partially to blame for the attacks. Paul immediately responded by launching a statewide television ad in which he expresses his "outrage at terrorists who killed 3,000 innocents" before accusing Grayson of a "lie" and a "shameful" tactic. Grayson accused the Fox News Channel of favoring Paul over him.

On May 18, 2010, Paul won the Republican nomination. After conceding the election to Paul, Grayson said, "It's time to put all differences aside, unite behind Dr. Paul, he needs our help and I for one stand ready to serve".

Endorsements

  • U.S. Senator Jim Bunning of Kentucky
  • U.S. Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina
  • Former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska
  • Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas
  • Congressman Ron Paul (father of Rand)
  • Former Republican presidential candidate and editor-in-chief of Forbes Steve Forbes
  • State Senator Dan Seum
  • Editor of conservative weblog RedState Erick Erickson
  • James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family
  • Cathy Bailey, Former U.S. Ambassador to Latvia
  • Brooks Wicker, 3rd congressional district candidate
  • James Edwards, host of The Political Cesspool
  • Concerned Women for America
  • Downsize DC Foundation
  • Americans For Prosperity
  • FreedomWorks
  • Gun Owners of America
  • Republican Liberty Caucus
  • Northern Kentucky Right to Life
  • Tea Party Express
  • REAGAN PAC
  • Bluegrass Bulletin's Marcus Carey
  • Kentucky Credit Union PAC
  • Lexington Herald-Leader
  • Club for Growth
  • U.S. Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
  • Former Vice President Dick Cheney
  • Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania
  • Former Congressman Ron Lewis of Kentucky
  • Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
  • Congressman Hal Rogers of Kentucky
  • State Senator Julie Denton
  • State Senator Tom Jensen
  • State Senator Vernie McGaha
  • State Senator John Schickel
  • State Senator Brandon Smith
  • State Senator Elizabeth Tori
  • State Senator Jack Westwood
  • State Senator Ken Winters
  • State Representative Scott Brinkman
  • State Representative John "Bam" Carney
  • State Representative Tim Couch
  • State Representative Ronald Crimm
  • State Representative Bob Deweese
  • State Representative Myron Dossett
  • State Representative Bill Farmer
  • State Representative Mike Harmon
  • State Representative Brent Housman
  • State Representative Adam Koenig
  • State Representative Brad Montell
  • State Representative Tim Moore
  • State Representative David Osborne
  • State Representative Marie Rader
  • State Representative Steven Rudy
  • State Representative Sal Santoro
  • State Representative Alecia Webb-Edgington
  • State Representative Addia Wuchner
  • State Representative Jill York
  • Kentucky Right to Life
  • The Kentucky Enquirer

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorTrey
GraysonRand
PaulOtherUndecided
Survey USAAugust 15–17, 2009516± 4.4%**37%**26%13%17%
Research 2000August 31 – September 2, 2009600± 4.0%**40%**25%18%17%
Survey USAOctober 30 – November 2, 2009448± 4.7%32%**35% **10%18%
Public Policy PollingDecember 18–21, 2009478± 4.5%25%**44% **—32%
Magellan StrategiesFebruary 18, 2010560± 4.1%23%**44%**—33%
Survey USAMarch 1–3, 2010454± 4.7%27%**42% **11%19%
Research 2000March 15–17, 2010600± 5.0%28%**40% **14%18%
Survey USAApril 9–11, 2010446± 4.7%30%**45%**5%19%
Public Policy PollingMay 1–2, 2010363± 5.1%28%**46%**4%21%
Research 2000May 2–4, 2010500± 4.5%32%**44%**7%17%
Magellan StrategiesMay 4, 2010611± 3.9%28%**43%**8%21%
Survey USAMay 9–11, 2010440± 4.8%33%**49%**7%11%
Research 2000May 10–12, 2010600± 4.0%35%**45%**7%13%
Public Policy PollingMay 15–16, 20101,065± 3.0%34%**52%**7%7%
Magellan StrategiesMay 16, 2010809± 3.4%30%**55%**8%7%

Results

Republican primary results by county:

| | | | |

*Though Bill Johnson dropped out of the race prior to the primary, he still appeared on the ballot.

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Jack Conway, Attorney General of Kentucky
  • Daniel Mongiardo, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and nominee in 2004
  • James Buckmaster, physician
  • Darlene Fitzgerald Price, former U.S. Customs agent
  • Maurice Sweeney, businessman

Campaign

Mongiardo announced that he had received the endorsement of Governor Steve Beshear and raised $420,000.

Due to Conway's large margin of victory in his statewide campaign for attorney general, his fundraising ability, and the age difference between Conway and Bunning, Conway was described as a viable candidate.

Both candidates were against the Senate version of the Affordable Care Act. When Mongiardo said that "it was time to start over," he was criticized by Conway and labeled "Dr. No." Both candidates supported the final version. Attorney General Conway refused to join a lawsuit claiming that health care reform is unconstitutional.

On May 18, 2010, Conway won the Democratic nomination.

Endorsements

  • U.S. Congressmen Ben Chandler
  • U.S. Congressman John Yarmuth
  • Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives Greg Stumbo
  • Kentucky Finance/Administration Cabinet Secretary Jonathan Miller
  • Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson
  • Former U.S. Senator and former Governor of Kentucky Wendell Ford
  • Former Governor of Kentucky John Brown
  • Kentucky State Auditor Crit Luallen
  • The Courier-Journal
  • The Kentucky Enquirer
  • Lexington Herald-Leader
  • Governor Steve Beshear
  • State Senator and former Governor Julian Carroll
  • State Senator Perry Clark
  • State Senator Denise Harper-Angel
  • State Senator Walter Blevins
  • State Senator Tim Shaughnessy
  • State Senator Gerald Neal
  • Former State Senator David Karem

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorJack
ConwayDaniel
MongiardoOtherUndecided
Garin-Hart-YangMay 12–13, 2009336± 5.3%28%**43%**—29%
Survey USAAugust 15–17, 2009647± 3.9%31%**39%**9%14%
Research 2000August 31 – September 2, 2009600± 4.0%30%**37%**15%18%
Survey USAOctober 30 – November 2, 2009602± 4.1%28%**39%**10%16%
Public Policy PollingDecember 22, 2009557± 4.2%**37%**33%—30%
Survey USAMarch 1–3, 2010590± 4.1%27%**45%**9%19%
Research 2000March 15–17, 2010600± 5.0%31%**47% **8%14%
Survey USAApril 9–11, 2010659± 4.7%32%**35%**11%21%
Public Policy PollingMay 1–2, 2010459± 4.6%27%**36%**10%27%
Research 2000May 2–4, 2010500± 4.5%32%**39%**12%17%
Survey USAMay 9–11, 2010662± 3.9%37%**38%**13%12%
Research 2000May 10–12, 2010600± 4.0%36%**39%**10%15%

Results

The primary race was extremely close with Conway narrowly prevailing by just over 4,000 votes. The race remained in doubt for much of the night. Finally with 99% of the vote counted the Associated Press declared Conway the winner. Mongiardo called Conway to concede at 10:08 P.M. EST. Mongiardo congratulated Conway and pledged him his full support for the general election. In terms of the breakdown of the results, Conway ran up margins in Jefferson County home of Louisville, and Fayette County home of Lexington. In terms of more rural counties Mongiardo and Conway split the vote. Conway performed well in central Kentucky, while Mongiardo performed well in coal country in east Kentucky and farm country in western Kentucky. In the end Conway's performance in the states most populated county, Jefferson County proved to be just enough to carry him to victory. The primary race was also notable because both Conway and Mongiardo received more votes than Republican Rand Paul.

Democratic primary results by county:

| | | | | | | | | | | ]]

General election

Candidates

  • Rand Paul (R), ophthalmologist and political activist
  • Jack Conway (D), Attorney General
  • Billy Ray Wilson (independent write-in)

Kentucky's ballot access requirements allow Republicans and Democrats to run for office with two signatures, but require minor parties and independents to collect at least 5,000 signatures. The filing deadline for minor party and independent candidates was on August 10, and no candidate filed.

Some speculate that the reason why no minor party or independent candidate filed is because Paul's candidacy helped discourage it. The Libertarian Party of Kentucky held its nominating convention for 2010 elections and failed to nominate a candidate for the U.S. Senate, as no one stepped forward to seek nomination to that office. Despite comments from some observers that Paul espouses libertarian beliefs, the Kentucky Libertarian Party issued an official press release stating "Rand Paul is not a libertarian" and detailing the differences between Paul's beliefs and libertarian principles. Similarly, the Constitution Party of Kentucky avoided the Senate race ostensibly because of Rand Paul's presence in that race and perhaps because of his more minarchist stance than Trey Grayson, especially if the latter had been the nominee.

Billy Ray Wilson, an independent of London, filed as a write-in candidate.

Campaign

Conway began the race trailing Paul, but as he attacked his opponent's positions on social-welfare and criminal-justice policies, the polls began to tighten. Conway agreed to run an advertisement that linked Paul's policy stances to a college prank in which Paul reportedly demanded that a female classmate worship a bong named "Aqua Buddha." Independent political analysts in Kentucky quickly warned that Conway would regret his decision. The ad's focus on religion led critics, including not just Republicans but also some liberals such as Hardball's Chris Matthews, to charge that Conway was improperly questioning Paul's faith, to which Conway countered that the ad was intended to question Paul's "judgment." Nonetheless, Conway swiftly dropped again in the polls, a decline from which he never recovered. Conway ceased his defense of the commercial after the election, admitting that running it had been a mistake; he claimed that he had done so only reluctantly at the urging of national advisers despite finding it "harsh as mule's breath."

Conway saw one last opportunity before his final debate with Paul. One of Rand Paul's supporters stomped on a MoveOn activist after she approached Paul's vehicle, and a video of the event was later used in a Conway TV commercial. Paul and Conway condemned the attack and the supporter was banned from campaign events.

The campaign attracted $8.5 million in contributions from outside groups, of which $6 million was spent to help Rand Paul and $2.5 million to help Conway. This money influx was in addition to the money spent by the candidates themselves: $6 million by Paul and $4.7 million by Conway.

Paul was endorsed by The Kentucky Enquirer, The Richmond Register, and the Bowling Green Daily News; as well as by the National Federation of Independent Business, Council for Citizens Against Government Waste, National Right to Life, US Chamber of Commerce, National Vietnam and Gulf War Veterans Coalition, Mike Huckabee, and Tony Perkins/FRC Action PAC.

Conway was endorsed by the Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald Leader.

Debates

Rand Paul and Jack Conway debate, October 2010

There were 5 televised debates between the two candidates. The first debate on October 3, 2010, which was moderated by Chris Wallace, seemed to focus on President Obama's decisions during his 2 years as president. Paul stated, "I think his agenda is wrong for America. I will stand up against President Obama's agenda." Conway responded, "I am a proud Democrat. I'm certainly not going to be on the left of Barack Obama." At the time of the debate, the election's polls indicated the race was a dead heat.

No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipantsDemocratic Party (US)}};"Rand PaulJack Conway1234
May 18, 2010????????
October 11, 2010????????
October 17, 2010????????
October 25, 2010????????

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2010
RothenbergOctober 29, 2010
RealClearPoliticsOctober 19, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 14, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 20, 2010
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 29, 2010
*The New York Times*October 20, 2010

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Rand Paul (R)$6,727,033$6,068,547$658,484$0
Jack Conway (D)$5,027,318$4,370,349$684,177$460,794
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorRand
Paul (R)Jack
Conway (D)OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAAugust 15–17, 20091,944± 2.3%38%**43%**—19%
Research 2000August 31 – September 2, 2009600± 4.0%37%**41%**—22%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 30, 2009500± 4.5%38%**42%**4%15%
SurveyUSAOctober 30 – November 2, 20091,770± 2.4%39%**44%**—17%
Public Policy PollingDecember 18–21, 20091,199± 2.8%**42%**36%—22%
Rasmussen ReportsJanuary 6, 2010500± 4.5%**46%**38%4%12%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 2, 2010500± 4.5%**47%**39%3%11%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 2, 2010500± 4.5%**49%**34%4%13%
Research 2000March 15–17, 2010600± 5.0%**45% **39%—16%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 31, 2010500± 4.5%**50% **36%3%11%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 28, 2010500± 4.5%**47% **38%4%10%
Public Policy PollingMay 1–2, 2010946± 3.2%**41% **40%—19%
Research 2000May 10–12, 2010600± 4.0%**42%**39%—19%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 19, 2010500± 4.5%**59% **34%4%3%
Research 2000May 24–26, 2010600± 4.0%**44% **41%—9%
SurveyUSAMay 25–27, 2010569± 4.2%**51% **45%—4%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 1, 2010500± 4.5%**49% **41%4%6%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 28, 2010500± 4.5%**49% **42%3%6%
Public Policy PollingJune 28–30, 2010625± 3.9%**43% ****43%**—14%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 20, 2010750± 4.0%**49% **41%4%6%
SurveyUSAJuly 27–29, 2010568± 4.2%**51% **43%—5%
Reuters/IpsosAugust 13–15, 2010435± 4.7%**45% **40%—15%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 17, 2010500± 4.5%**49% **40%4%7%
SurveyUSAAugust 30 – September 1, 2010561± 4.2%**55% **40%—5%
Opinion ResearchSeptember 2–7, 2010869± 3.5%**46%****46%**5%4%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 7, 2010500± 4.5%**54%**39%2%4%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 11–12, 2010959± 3.2%**49%**42%—9%
SurveyUSASeptember 21–23, 2010611± 4.0%**49%**47%—4%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 29, 2010500± 4.0%**49%**38%5%8%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 18, 2010500± 4.5%**47%**42%4%7%
Mason-DixonOctober 18–19, 2010625± 4.0%**48%**43%—9%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 23, 20101,000± 3.0%**50%**43%2%5%
Public Policy PollingOctober 21–24, 2010900± 3.3%**53%**40%—7%
Opinion ResearchOctober 20–26, 2010785± 3.5%**50%**43%——
SurveyUSAOctober 24–27, 2010900± 4.0%**52%**43%—4%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 27, 2010750± 4.0%**53%**41%2%4%
Public Policy PollingOctober 28–30, 20101,021± 3.1%**55%**40%—5%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Bell (Largest city: Middlesboro)
  • Bourbon (Largest city: Paris)
  • Caldwell (Largest city: Princeton)
  • Calloway (Largest city: Murray)
  • Carlisle (Largest city: Bardwell)
  • Clark (Largest city: Winchester)
  • Gallatin (Largest city: Warsaw)
  • Graves (Largest city: Mayfield)
  • Greenup (Largest city: Flatwoods)
  • Harrison (Largest city: Cynthiana)
  • Henry (Largest city: Eminence)
  • Hickman (Largest city: Clinton)
  • Livingston (Largest city: Salem)
  • Lyon (Largest city: Eddyville)
  • Marshall (Largest city: Benton)
  • Morgan (Largest city: West Liberty)
  • Nelson (Largest city: Bardstown)
  • Bath (Largest city: Owingsville)
  • Union (Largest city: Morganfield)
  • Webster (Largest city: Providence)
  • Robertson (largest municipality: Mount Olivet) (became tied)
  • Ballard (Largest city: LaCenter)
  • Fulton (Largest city: Fulton)
  • Madison (Largest city: Richmond)
  • Woodford (Largest city: Versailles)

References

References

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  2. Brammer, Jack. (May 18, 2010). "Paul wins Kentucky GOP Senate nomination, to face Conway". McClatchy Newspapers.
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