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2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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FieldValue
election_name2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky
countryKentucky
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election1998 United States Senate election in Kentucky
previous_year1998
next_election2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky
next_year2010
election_dateNovember 2, 2004
image_size125x136px
image1Jim Bunning, official photo portrait, 111th Congress.jpg
nominee1**Jim Bunning**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**873,507**
percentage1**50.66%**
image2Daniel Mongiardo by Gage Skidmore.jpg
nominee2Daniel Mongiardo
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2850,855
percentage249.34%
map_image2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
map_size300px
map_captionCounty results
**Bunning:**
**Mongiardo:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionJim Bunning
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionJim Bunning
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

Bunning:
Mongiardo:

The 2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning narrowly won re-election to a second term over Democratic State Senator Daniel Mongiardo. This election was the first time since 1962 that an incumbent Republican senator won re-election to this seat.

Democratic primary

Background

Former Governor Paul E. Patton was considered the initial frontrunner in the Democratic primary, but he opted not to run due to a scandal over an extramarital affair. Eventually, the Democrats settled on Daniel Mongiardo, a relatively unknown doctor and State Senator from Hazard, Kentucky.

Candidates

  • Daniel Mongiardo, Kentucky State Senator
  • David Lynn Williams, perennial candidate

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Jim Bunning, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Barry Metcalf, Kentucky State Senator

Results

General election

Candidates

  • Jim Bunning (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Daniel Mongiardo (D), State Senator

Campaign

During his reelection bid in 2004, controversy erupted when Bunning described Mongiardo as looking "like one of Saddam Hussein's sons." Bunning apologized, then later went on to declare that Mongiardo's "thugs" had assaulted his wife.

Bunning had an estimated $4 million campaign war chest, while Mongiardo had only $600,000. The Democrats began increasing financial support to Mongiardo when it became apparent that Bunning's bizarre behavior was costing him votes, purchasing more than $800,000 worth of additional television airtime on his behalf.

The November 2 election was one of the closest in Kentucky history. The race turned out to be very close, with Mongiardo leading with as many as 80% of the returns coming in. However, Bunning eventually won by just over one percentage point after the western portion of the state, which is on Central Time, broke heavily for him. Some analysts felt that because of President George W. Bush's 20% margin of victory in the state, Bunning was able to effectively ride the President's coattails to victory.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorJim
Bunning (R)Daniel
Mongiardo (D)OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAOctober 28–30, 2004631 (LV)± 4.0%**51%**42%5%2%
*The Courier-Journal*October 18–20, 2004690 (LV)± 3.7%**49%**43%–8%
SurveyUSAOctober 17–19, 2004623 (LV)± 4.0%**53%**39%6%2%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)October 15–17, 2004503 (LV)± 4.4%**43%****43%**–14%
39%**40%**–21%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)October 6–7, 2004503 (LV)± 4.4%**47%**39%–14%
**43%**37%–20%
SurveyUSAOctober 4–6, 2004615 (LV)± 4.0%**51%**40%7%2%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)October 2004600 (LV)± 4.0%**50%**39%–11%
*The Courier-Journal*September 10–15, 2004657 (LV)± 3.8%**51%**34%–15%
SurveyUSASeptember 7–9, 2004659 (LV)± 3.9%**54%**35%9%2%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)May 19–20, 2004504 (LV)± 4.5%**48%**39%–13%

Results

By county

CountyBunningVotesMongiardoVotes
Adair69%4,85731%2,151
Allen70%4,64030%2,030
Anderson51%4,67649%4,540
Ballard43%1,75257%2,331
Barren58%8,74942%6,459
Bath37%1,67363%2,910
Bell44%4,44256%5,646
Boone71%31,16229%12,543
Bourbon46%3,61454%4,250
Boyd49%10,18151%10,713
Boyle52%6,17948%5,806
Bracken66%2,24934%1,183
Breathitt28%1,60772%4,201
Breckinridge57%4,63343%3,550
Bullitt57%15,67543%11,913
Butler70%3,66530%1,601
Caldwell50%3,02550%3,034
Calloway51%7,45649%7,063
Campbell64%24,60336%14,079
Carlisle48%1,32752%1,412
Carroll48%1,78852%1,971
Carter45%4,79455%5,754
Casey75%4,48325%1,476
Christian63%12,33137%7,304
Clark48%7,04752%7,559
Clay62%4,33638%2,643
Clinton77%3,09423%937
Crittenden55%2,21445%1,813
Cumberland73%2,10327%782
Daviess51%20,14849%19,739
Edmonson62%3,16538%1,942
Elliott28%80172%2,025
Estill55%2,89245%2,414
Fayette41%50,20959%70,798
Fleming52%3,08048%2,815
Floyd29%5,01571%12,092
Franklin34%7,99866%15,324
Fulton46%1,23754%1,426
Gallatin59%1,73641%1,184
Garrard60%3,76740%2,556
Grant65%5,49735%3,007
Graves48%7,44852%8,036
Grayson62%5,89438%3,618
Green68%3,32432%1,556
Greenup50%7,80450%7,874
Hancock48%1,83452%2,010
Hardin57%19,91643%14,910
Harlan31%3,34069%7,265
Harrison50%3,73850%3,702
Hart56%3,51844%2,785
Henderson47%8,41953%9,490
Henry52%3,26648%3,024
Hickman49%1,09351%1,159
Hopkins56%10,16144%7,930
Jackson78%3,75522%1,070
Jefferson40%134,69960%198,541
Jessamine56%10,00244%7,730
Johnson59%5,24241%3,711
Kenton65%42,15835%22,759
Knott19%1,34581%5,811
Knox59%6,68541%4,591
LaRue60%3,42940%2,241
Laurel67%14,42733%7,014
Lawrence54%3,32246%2,790
Lee59%1,60641%1,126
Leslie51%2,43849%2,339
Letcher32%2,75168%5,884
Lewis70%3,56230%1,509
Lincoln57%4,87043%3,695
Livingston45%2,02555%2,520
Logan59%5,84741%4,099
Lyon45%1,68055%2,082
Madison50%14,74350%14,790
Magoffin43%2,10057%2,816
Marion41%2,88159%4,112
Marshall48%7,19152%7,937
Martin65%2,74435%1,497
Mason59%3,88441%2,748
McCracken52%14,93448%13,940
McCreary71%3,60329%1,501
McLean49%2,07851%2,179
Meade53%5,57447%5,000
Menifee39%94661%1,484
Mercer53%5,01947%4,534
Metcalfe58%2,26042%1,608
Monroe77%3,94023%1,156
Montgomery43%4,13057%5,558
Morgan39%1,80061%2,758
Muhlenberg44%5,60456%7,178
Nelson48%7,75452%8,300
Nicholas43%1,23657%1,638
Ohio56%5,37144%4,202
Oldham59%15,75141%10,731
Owen58%2,63742%1,909
Owsley63%1,14237%660
Pendleton65%3,82435%2,042
Perry23%2,62077%8,659
Pike39%9,67261%15,293
Powell41%1,96159%2,806
Pulaski67%16,05333%7,848
Robertson54%55946%468
Rockcastle69%3,95631%1,812
Rowan40%3,38860%5,032
Russell69%5,09231%2,242
Scott49%8,12651%8,364
Shelby54%8,54446%7,269
Simpson56%3,66544%2,938
Spencer57%3,79943%2,821
Taylor63%6,11937%3,643
Todd63%2,69637%1,550
Trigg58%3,35442%2,457
Trimble50%1,86550%1,852
Union49%2,79151%2,880
Warren56%21,25844%16,457
Washington56%2,76144%2,146
Wayne60%4,21440%2,783
Webster48%2,49052%2,738
Whitley64%8,08236%4,620
Wolfe33%91167%1,856
Woodford44%4,88756%6,196

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Bell (Largest city: Middlesboro)
  • Trimble (Largest city: Bedford)
  • Logan (Largest city: Russellville)
  • Hopkins (Largest city: Madisonville)
  • Meade (Largest city: Brandenburg)
  • Trigg (Largest city: Cadiz)
  • Henry (Largest city: Eminence)
  • Lawrence (Largest city: Louisa)
  • Harrison (Largest city: Cynthiana)
  • Simpson (Largest city: Franklin)
  • McCracken (Largest city: Paducah)
  • Lincoln (Largest city: Stanford)
  • Robertson (largest municipality: Mount Olivet)
  • Daviess (Largest city: Owensboro)
  • Green (Largest city: Greensburg)
  • Calloway (Largest city: Murray)
  • Estill (Largest city: Irvine)
  • Fleming (Largest city: Flemingsburg)
  • LaRue (Largest city: Hodgenville)
  • Mercer (Largest city: Harrodsburg)
  • Metcalfe (Largest city: Edmonton)
  • Owen (Largest city: Owenton)
  • Spencer (Largest city: Taylorsville)
  • Todd (Largest city: Elkton)
  • Boyle (Largest city: Daville)
  • Washington (Largest city: Springfield)

Notes

Partisan clients

References

References

  1. "Mongiardo Campaign Not Satisfied With Bunning Apology - wave3.com-Louisville News, Weather & Sports".
  2. "Archived copy".
  3. (April 1, 2004). "Bunning apologizes for Saddam comparison". [[Associated Press.
  4. Paul Farhi. (October 15, 2004). "Bunning's Wild Pitches Tighten Kentucky Senate Race". [[The Washington Post]].
  5. (November 2004). "The Final Predictions".
  6. (October 31, 2004). "Reports of Bunning's Demise Are Premature; Bush at Home in KY".
  7. (October 25, 2004). "Poll: Mongiardo Leads in Ky. Senate Race".
  8. (October 20, 2004). "Has Bunning Stopped Free-Fall? Mongiardo Remains 14 pts Back".
  9. (October 18, 2004). "Recent Kentucky Survey Results". Garin-Hart-Yang.
  10. (October 7, 2004). "Mongiardo Cuts Into Bunning Lead for U.S. Senate in Kentucky".
  11. (October 19, 2004). "GOP Poll Also shows Bunning Sinking!".
  12. (September 10, 2004). "KY Remains Solidly Red: Bunning & Bush Win, Amendment Passes".
  13. Miller, Christopher. (May 26, 2004). "Bunning campaign disputes poll numbers by Mongiardo".
  14. (June 9, 2004). "KY Bunning (R) 53 Mangiardo (D) 34".
  15. "Archived copy".
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