2010 Colorado gubernatorial election

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• John Hickenlooper, Mayor of Denver

Declined

• Bill Ritter, incumbent Governor
• Ken Salazar, United States Secretary of the Interior and former U.S. Senator
• Andrew Romanoff, former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (ran for U.S. Senate)

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Dan Maes, businessman
• Scott McInnis, former U.S. Representative

Declined

• John Suthers, Colorado Attorney General
• Josh Penry, State Senator
• Tom Tancredo, former U.S. Representative

Pre-primary polling and developments

While a head-to-head polling matchup of McInnis against Maes by Survey USA was not reported for July 2010, the McInnis plagiarism story and the entry of Tom Tancredo into the race led to a changed landscape in advance of the August 10 Republican primary. "When asked who would be the 'strongest Republican gubernatorial candidate,' ... Tancredo easily led the pack of six choices with 29 percent. McInnis followed with 19 percent, and ... Maes, had 13 percent. Another 17 percent ... were not sure", in the Survey USA poll commissioned by the Denver Post and 9News. While Tancredo's run was on the Constitution Party ticket, he spoke as a Republican in responding to the poll results. "Tancredo, originally a McInnis supporter, has said that both Maes and McInnis should 'both eventually drop out' of the race even if it's after one wins the primary. 'Neither can win the general election,' he said. Tancredo said he was 'surprised and flattered' by the poll results. 'I want us as a party to get this governor's seat,' he said. 'If I can do it, believe me, I will.'" Tancredo was delivered a "message, signed by tea party, 9-12 Project and constitutionalist groups, [which] read in part: 'Withdraw your ultimatum, stay in the Republican Party, let the process play out for the governor's race within the rules already set forth, and continue to help us improve this party, its candidates, and the process — in other words to trust and respect the newly awakened, energized and informed voters of Colorado.'" As of late July, both McInnis and Maes had rejected Tancredo's ultimatum that they withdraw before or after the primary. And "political observers — and even state GOP chairman Dick Wadhams — were already predicting [Tancredo]'s entry into the race sounded the death knell for the party's gubernatorial bid and may cause problems for state legislative races. 'It's difficult if not impossible to beat ... Hickenlooper with Tancredo in the race,' said Wadhams, noting that Tancredo will siphon just enough votes away from the GOP nominee to give Hickenlooper a win." Post-primary polling (see below), however, showed growing support for Tancredo with Maes in danger of receiving a vote share in the single digits.

McInnis vs. Maes

Results

| | | | | ]]

Libertarian Party

Candidates

• Jaimes Brown
• Dan "Kilo" Sallis, 2008 vice presidential candidate of the Boston Tea Party

Results

American Constitution Party

Confirmed

• Tom Tancredo, former Republican U.S. Representative

General election

Candidates

• Tom Tancredo (ACP), former Republican U.S. Representative :*Running mate: Pat Miller, former State Representative and nominee for CO-02 in 1994 and 1996
• Jaimes Brown (L) :*Running mate: Ken Wyble
• Jason R. Clark (UAF)
• Paul Fiorino (I) :*Running mate: Heather McKibbin
• John Hickenlooper (D), Mayor of Denver :*Running mate: Joe Garcia, Colorado State University-Pueblo President
• Dan Maes (R), businessman :*Running mate: Tambor Williams, former State Representative

Predictions

Debates

• Complete video of debate, September 25, 2010 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 29, 2010 - C-SPAN

Polling

Graphical summary

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Constitution

• Baca (largest city: Springfield)
• Cheyenne (largest city: Cheyenne Wells)
• Moffat (largest city: Craig)
• Rio Blanco (largest city: Meeker)
• Mesa (largest city: Grand Junction)
• Delta (largest city: Delta)
• Montrose (largest city: Montrose)
• Park (largest city: Fairplay)
• Fremont (largest city: Canon City)
• Custer (largest city: Silver Cliff)
• El Paso (largest city: Colorado Springs)
• Douglas (largest city: Highlands Ranch)
• Teller (largest city: Woodland Park)
• Morgan (largest city: Fort Morgan)
• Logan (largest city: Sterling)
• Phillips (largest city: Holyoke)
• Washington (largest city: Akron)
• Lincoln (largest city: Limon)
• Elbert (largest city: Elizabeth)
• Yuma (largest city: Yuma)
• Prowers (largest city: Lamar)
• Kit Carson (largest city: Burlington)
• Kiowa (largest city: Eads)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Jackson (Largest city: Walden)
• Crowley (Largest city: Ordway)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Dolores (largest city: Dove Creek)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Constitution

• Weld (largest city: Greeley)

By congressional district

Hickenlooper won five of seven congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans, with the remaining two going to Tancredo, which both elected Republicans.

Aftermath

A result of Tancredo's ACP candidacy and Maes' political implosion was the party's legal elevation from minor to major party status.

Under state law, Tancredo's showing in the gubernatorial election elevated the American Constitution Party from minor to major party status. Any party that earns 10% or more of the votes cast for governor is a "major party." Major party status gives the party a place at or near the top of the ballot in the 2014 gubernatorial election. However, because of the additional organizational, financial, and compliance requirements triggered by major party status, ACP leaders have been ambivalent about the change.

As the campaign wore on, the question was not whether Hickenlooper would win, but whether Maes would get at least 10% of the vote. Had he dropped below 10%, the Republican Party would have been legally defined as a minor party under Colorado law. Maes' campaign received no financial support from the Colorado GOP, RNC, nor the Republican Governor's Association. Ultimately, he finished with 11 percent of the vote, just 20,477 votes over the threshold, allowing the Colorado GOP to retain major party status.

The Constitution Party did not field a candidate in the 2014 election, and thus lost its major party status.

Notes

References

References

1. Fender, Jessica. (6 January 2010). "Ritter ends re-election bid". The Denver Post.
2. Moore, John. (November 3, 2010). "Hickenlooper wins easily". Denver Post.
3. Bartels, Lynn. (2010-01-12). "Hickenlooper enters governor's race". The Denver Post.
4. Kraushaar, Josh. (2010-01-12). "Hickenlooper in – The Scorecard". Politico.Com.
5. Wilson, Reid. (2008-12-08). "Salazar, Ritter get set for reelection bids". [[The Hill (newspaper).
6. Weisman, Jonathan. (2010-01-06). "Salazar Won't Run". Politico 44 (blog).
7. Bartels, Lynn. (2009-09-16). "Romanoff enters Dem race for U.S. Senate". The Denver Post.
8. "2010 Abstract of Votes Cast". Colorado Secretary of State.
9. "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com.
10. Fender, Jessica. (May 21, 2009). "McInnis begins 2010 challenge to Gov. Ritter". [[The Denver Post]].
11. Crummy, Karen E.. (2009-01-26). "Suthers won't enter Senate, Gov. races". The Denver Post.
12. "First Read – CO-GOV: Penry steps aside fearing 527". [[MSNBC]].
13. (2009-11-23). "Tancredo, Owens Throw Support Behind McInnis". CBS4 Denver.
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