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2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey

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FieldValue
election_name2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey
countryNew Jersey
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2002 United States Senate election in New Jersey
previous_year2002
next_election2013 United States Senate special election in New Jersey
next_year2013 (special)
election_dateNovember 4, 2008
turnout73% ( 27pp)
image1File:Frank Lautenberg, official portrait, 112th portrait crop.jpg
image_size150x150px
nominee1**Frank Lautenberg**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**1,951,218**
percentage1**56.03%**
image2File:Richard Alan Zimmer portrait (cropped).gif
nominee2Dick Zimmer
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote21,461,025
percentage241.95%
map_image
map_caption**Lautenberg:**
**Zimmer:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionFrank Lautenberg
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionFrank Lautenberg
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Zimmer:
The 2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg won re-election to a fifth, non-consecutive term, defeating former Republican congressman Dick Zimmer, who was also the nominee for this seat in 1996. This is the last U.S. Senate race in New Jersey where both major candidates have died.

Background

In November 2006, Senator Lautenberg had the lowest approval rating of any Democratic incumbent running for re-election in 2008 (with 39% of respondents approving and 45% disapproving), with his approval improving only slightly to 42% as of September 2007. In September 2007, his approval had improved slightly to 42%, but 46% of respondents in the same survey believed that Lautenberg did not deserve re-election (against 36% who believed he did) and 54% believed that he was too old to effectively serve another six-year term in the Senate.

However, the prevailing political climate at the time of the election was also a major factor. Voter anger was directed against the Republican Party, and many Democrats once considered vulnerable managed to hold on.

Democratic primary

Main article: 2008 Democratic primary in New Jersey

Candidates

  • Rob Andrews, U.S. Representative
  • Donald Cresitello, mayor of Morristown
  • Frank Lautenberg, incumbent U.S. Senator

Polling

SourceDateFrank
LautenbergRob
Andrews
Joel BenensonApril 1–2, 2008**52%**21%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 15, 2008**49%**19%

Results

Results by county

CountyLautenberg%Andrews%Cresitello%
Atlantic4,79845.4%**5,287****50.1%**4724.5%
Bergen**26,848****78.9%**5,64516.6%1,5544.6%
Burlington7,75742.4%**9,483****51.8%**1,0595.8%
Camden5,99516.5%**29,175****80.1%**1,2563.4%
Cape May1,43345.4%**1,566****49.6%**1595.0%
Cumberland1,74646.1%**1,799****47.5%**2466.5%
Essex**31,844****76.4%**8,67120.8%1,1902.9%
Gloucester3,13517.0%**14,775****80.0%**5633.0%
Hudson**28,446****74.8%**8,23321.7%1,3433.5%
Hunterdon**2,061****58.8%**1,18033.7%2647.5%
Mercer**10,093****74.0%**3,05322.4%4943.6%
Middlesex**17,131****62.0%**7,91828.7%2,5739.3%
Monmouth**10,570****66.3%**3,56822.4%1,80811.3%
Morris**8,432****65.0%**3,15124.3%1,39410.7%
Ocean**8,869****57.9%**5,03732.9%1,4219.3%
Passaic**9,842****79.3%**1,70013.7%8727.0%
Salem92831.9%**1,734****59.6%**2488.5%
Somerset**5,640****64.7%**2,20925.3%87310.0%
Sussex**1,379****52.7%**78429.9%45617.4%
Union**15,103****67.6%**6,17927.7%1,0604.7%
Warren**962****47.4%**63031.0%43821.6%

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Joseph Pennacchio, state senator
  • Murray Sabrin, professor at Ramapo College and perennial candidate
  • Dick Zimmer, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996

Withdrew

  • Anne Evans Estabrook, real estate developer
  • Andrew Unanue, former Goya Foods executive (endorsed Zimmer)

Declined

  • Kip Bateman, state senator
  • Mehmet Oz, cardiologist

Results

Official results, New Jersey Division of Elections (PDF, July 11, 2008)

Results by county

CountyZimmer%Pennacchio%Sabrin%
Atlantic**3,909****65%**1,32222%81013%
Bergen5,14530%**10,761****62%**1,3848%
Burlington**8,629****63%**2,86921%2,27616%
Camden**3,123****49%**2,16634%1,03616%
Cape May**3,615****70%**1,03420%4839%
Cumberland**1,566****72%**39518%22510%
Essex**3,592****57%**2,26236%4938%
Gloucester1,20626%**2,161****47%**1,25427%
Hudson**1,487****48%**95531%64121%
Hunterdon**5,519****60%**2,73030%97711%
Mercer**2,555****56%**1,53834%48811%
Middlesex2,60333%**4,195****54%**1,02113%
Monmouth**7,981****56%**4,63033%1,51011%
Morris8,09436%**12,700****56%**1,8558%
Ocean**10,875****48%**4,82021%6,77830%
Passaic1,27120%**4,570****72%**5458%
Salem**769****47%**65741%19312%
Somerset**5,227****46%**4,87543%1,17010%
Sussex2,85040%**3,621****51%**6479%
Union2,89632%**4,653****52%**1,38815%
Warren**1,751****46%**1,63243%40211%

General election

Candidates

  • Jeff Boss, perennial candidate and conspiracy theorist (Independent)
  • Daryl Mikell Brooks (Independent)
  • J.M. Carter (Independent)
  • Carl Peter Klapper (Independent; write-in)
  • Frank Lautenberg, incumbent U.S. Senator (Democratic)
  • Sara Lobman (Socialist Workers)
  • Jason Scheurer (Libertarian)
  • Dick Zimmer, former U.S. Representative (Republican)

Debates

The first poll conducted after the primaries showed a tighter than expected race between Lautenberg and Zimmer, with the two candidates in a virtual tie.

On October 29, 2008, a debate between Lautenberg and Zimmer was held on the radio station NJ 101.5.

On November 1, 2008, the two candidates debated for the second time on New Jersey Network, in the only televised debate agreed to by the Lautenberg campaign.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportOctober 23, 2008
CQ PoliticsOctober 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2008
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 31, 2008

Polling

SourceDateFrank
Lautenberg (D)Dick
Zimmer (R)
Rasmussen ReportsJune 4, 2008**45%**44%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 5–8, 2008**47%**38%
Fairleigh Dickinson UniversityJune 17–22, 2008**45%**28%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 7, 2008**49%**36%
Strategic VisionJuly 11–13, 2008**48%**32%
Monmouth UniversityJuly 17–21, 2008**45%**37%
Club for GrowthJuly 30–31, 200835%**36%**
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 4, 2008**51%**33%
Quinnipiac UniversityAugust 4–10, 2008**48%**41%
Fairleigh Dickinson UniversitySeptember 4–7, 2008**46%**35%
Marist CollegeSeptember 5–8, 2008**51%**40%
*The Record* / Research 2000September 9–11, 2008**49%**41%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 10–14, 2008**48%**39%
Monmouth UniversitySeptember 11–14, 2008**46%**36%
Strategic VisionSeptember 14–16, 2008**47%**40%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 16, 2008**49%**42%
Survey USASeptember 27–28, 2008**51%**38%
Strategic VisionSeptember 26–28, 2008**48%**41%
Fairleigh Dickinson UniversitySeptember 29 – October 5, 2008**50%**34%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 7, 2008**51%**37%
Survey USAOctober 11–12, 2008**51%**38%
Monmouth UniversityOctober 15–18, 2008**52%**36%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 16–19, 2008**55%**33%
Marist CollegeOctober 20–21, 2008**48%**41%
Strategic VisionOctober 24–26, 2008**49%**41%
Survey USAOctober 29–30, 2008**52%**37%

Results

|[[File:Swing in each NJ county from the 2002-2008 senate elections.svg|300px]]|Shift by county |[[File:Trend in each NJ county from the 2002-2008 senate elections.svg|300px]]|Trend by county | | | | | | | | | | | | | |}}}}}}

By county

CountyFrank Lautenberg
DecemberDick Zimmer
RepublicanVarious candidates
Other partiesMarginTotal votes cast#%#%#%#%Totals1,951,21856.03%1,461,02541.95%70,2022.02%490,19314.08%3,482,445
Atlantic61,46456.54%45,50941.87%1,7241.59%15,95514.67%108,697
Bergen210,79956.69246%159,30642.84389%1,7240.46365%51,49313.84857%371,829
Burlington114,78156.3168%85,84142.1175%3,1911.5657%28,94014.1993%203,813
Camden144,64066.56%69,82132.13%2,8491.31%74,81934.43%217,310
Cape May20,37445.22%23,69752.60%9842.18%-3,323-7.38%45,055
Cumberland31,05260.99750525%18,49836.33684955%1,3572.66564520%12,55424.66065570%50,907
Essex198,62375.01%61,82923.35%4,3481.64%136,79451.66%264,800
Gloucester72,99055.72%55,02442.00%2,9922.28%17,96613.72%131,006
Hudson126,09873.72%40,57323.72%4,3732.56%85,52560.71%171,044
Hunterdon22,82434.89%40,30961.63%2,2763.48%-17,485-18.04%65,409
Mercer91,08862.22%52,29835.73%3,0042.05%38,79026.49%146,390
Middlesex175,28459.55%112,59038.25%6,4892.20%62,69421.30%294,363
Monmouth132,18945.67%150,23851.90%7,0342.43%-18,049-6.23%289,461
Morris94,55842.52%124,19855.85%3,6201.63%-29,640-13.33%222,376
Ocean109,39343.117%139,48054.976%4,8391.907%-30,087-11.859%253,712
Passaic100,59861.358%59,55636.325%3,7982.317%41,04225.033%163,952
Salem16,13252.97%12,86942.26%1,4524.77%3,26310.71%30,453
Somerset66,93947.13%71,39250.27%3,6912.60%-4,453-3.14%142,022
Sussex27,17837.77%41,66057.89%3,1244.34%-14,482-20.12%71,962
Union116,20161.5315%69,06936.5739%3,5781.8946%47,13224.9576%188,848
Warren18,01938.91%27,25858.87%1,0272.22%-9,239-19.96%46,304

References

References

  1. "General Election Data - 1924 to 2022".
  2. (November 2006). "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11152". [[SurveyUSA]].
  3. [http://politickernj.com/voters-still-say-lautenberg-too-old-12097 "Voters still say Lautenberg is too old"]. PolitickerNJ.com, September 25, 2007. Accessed April 8, 2008.
  4. [http://www.politickernj.com/max/18127/dscc-poll-shows-lautenberg-52-21-lead-over-andrews Joel Benenson]
  5. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080606034308/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_jersey/election_2008_new_jersey_democratic_senate_primary Rasmussen Reports]
  6. [http://www.njelections.org/2008results/08primary-election/08-official-pri-elect-senate-candidate-tallies-071108.pdf Official results for 2008 primary elections, New Jersey Division of Elections, July 11, 2008] {{Webarchive. link. (August 6, 2008 ))
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