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2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

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2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

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FieldValue
election_name2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
countryNew Hampshire
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2002 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
previous_year2002
next_election2014 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
next_year2014
election_dateNovember 4, 2008
image_sizex150px
image1File:Jeanne Shaheen, official Senate portrait cropped.jpg
nominee1**Jeanne Shaheen**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**358,438**
percentage1**51.62%**
image2John E. Sununu (cropped).jpg
nominee2John E. Sununu
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2314,403
percentage245.28%
map{{switcher
map_caption**Shaheen:**
**Sununu:**
***Tie:***
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionJohn E. Sununu
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionJeanne Shaheen
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

|x245px |County results |x245px |Municipality results}} Sununu:
Tie: The 2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John E. Sununu ran for re-election to a second term, but was defeated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of the 2002 election. Shaheen's win marked the first time since 1972 that a Democrat won this seat, and made her the first Democratic senator elected from New Hampshire since John A. Durkin's victory in 1975.

Background

For a considerable amount of time, New Hampshire had always been considered an island of conservatism in the Northeast. Following the 2006 election, however, many offices were taken over by Democrats: Representatives Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, Governor John Lynch, the majority of the New Hampshire Executive Council, and the majority of both legislative chambers (which had not occurred since 1911). The popularity of Governor Lynch was considered an impediment to Sununu's re-election. Though the state voted for then-Gov. George W. Bush in 2000, Sen. John Kerry narrowly won the state over Bush in 2004.

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Jeanne Shaheen, former governor and nominee for the United States Senate in 2002.
  • Raymond Stebbins, attorney

Campaign

Shaheen, the Democratic nominee, at a rally in the lead-up to the election.

Astronaut Jay Buckey MD, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, and Katrina Swett (wife of former Congressman Richard Swett who ran for this seat in 1996), had announced their candidacies but withdrew in favor of former governor Jeanne Shaheen upon her entrance into the race.

Shaheen had been the Democratic nominee for the race in 2002. Since 2005, Shaheen had served as director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School before leaving on September 14, 2007. She had been aggressively courted to run by Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) on behalf of Senate Democrats, and by a "Draft Shaheen" campaign led by former New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Kathy Sullivan.

The filing deadline for the Democratic and Republican Parties was June 13, 2008. Shaheen filed, as did Raymond Stebbins.

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Tom Alciere, former state representative
  • John E. Sununu, incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

General election

Candidates

  • Ken Blevens (L)
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D), former governor
  • John E. Sununu (R), incumbent U.S. Senator

Campaign

A November 2006 SurveyUSA poll of New Hampshire voters found Sununu had a 47% approval rating. A February 1, 2007 poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire found that only 45% of New Hampshire voters held a favorable opinion of Sununu. In June 2007, a poll by 7NEWS and Suffolk University of likely voters reported that only 31 percent in the poll said Sununu deserved re-election, with 47 percent saying that someone else should get his seat.

A July 2008 Granite State Poll had Sununu's favorability rating at 52%, his unfavorability rating at 33%, and neutral or undecided by 16%. Shaheen is viewed favorable by 53%, unfavorable by 31% and neutral or undecided by 15%.

Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee for president, had mentioned Sununu as a possible running mate for the 2008 presidential election, as well as Lindsey Graham, Bob Riley, Steve Forbes and John Thune. Sununu had said he would remain neutral in the New Hampshire primary. However, McCain selected Alaska governor Sarah Palin instead.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportOctober 23, 2008
CQ PoliticsOctober 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2008
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 2, 2008

Polling

SourceDateJohn
Sununu (R)Jeanne
Shaheen (D)Ken
Blevens (L)Undecided
American Research GroupMarch 29, 200734%**44%**––22%
American Research GroupJune 200729%**57%**––14%
Research 2000July 200734%**56%**––10%
WMUR-CNNJuly 200738%**54%**––7%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 16, 200743%**48%**––9%
American Research GroupSeptember 18, 200741%**46%**––13%
WMUR-CNNSeptember 200738%**54%**––7%
SurveyUSANovember 5, 200742%**53%**––5%
American Research GroupDecember 20, 2007**52%**41%––7%
Granite State PollFebruary 11, 200837%**54%**––7%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 13, 200841%**49%**––––
American Research GroupMarch 20, 200833%**47%**––20%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 21, 200841%**49%**––––
Rasmussen ReportsMay 23, 200843%**50%**––––
American Research GroupJune 18, 200840%**54%**––6%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 20, 200839%**53%**––––
Granite State PollJuly 20, 200842%**46%**––10%
American Research GroupJuly 19, 200836%**58%**––––
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 23, 200845%**51%**––––
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 19, 200843%**52%**––––
American Research GroupAugust 18, 200841%**52%**––7%
Public Opinion StrategiesSeptember 3, 200844%**46%**3%5%
American Research GroupSeptember 13, 200840%**52%**––8%
Granite State PollSeptember 14, 200844%**48%**––7%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 23, 2008**52%**45%1%2%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 1, 200845%**50%**1%3%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 23, 200846%**52%**––––
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 30, 200844%**52%**––––
Survey USAOctober 30, 200840%**53%**6%2%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Jeanne Shaheen (D)$8,273,501.00$8,225,580.00$47,920.00$120,630.00
John Sununu (R)$8,879,307.00$8,868,017.00$104,187.00$0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

Results by municipality.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Hillsborough (largest municipality: Manchester)
  • Sullivan (largest municipality: Claremont)

References

References

  1. [http://www.bizjournals.com/masshightech/stories/2006/12/25/focus2.html Storm of change sweeps through N.H. Legislature]
  2. (July 30, 2007). "Can Sununu Hold on in New Hampshire?". [[Real Clear Politics]].
  3. (April 2019)
  4. [http://www.sos.nh.gov/cumulatived.html Democratic Party Cumulative Filings] {{webarchive. link. (June 5, 2011 New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.)
  5. [http://www.sos.nh.gov/cumulativer.html Republican Party Cumulative Filings] {{webarchive. link. (June 5, 2011 New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.)
  6. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d5fab45b-d324-4488-81a9-54a2d340ba35 Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11151], conducted November 2006
  7. Ralph Z. Hallow, [http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070627/NATION/106270092/1001 "N.H. poll puts Gore over Clinton"], ''Washington Times'', June 27, 2007
  8. "Archived copy".
  9. "Archived copy".
  10. "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008".
  11. link. (October 28, 2010 ''CQ Politics'')
  12. "2008 Senate ratings".
  13. "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics.
  14. [http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/ American Research Group]
  15. [http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/ American Research Group]
  16. [https://web.archive.org/web/20160219195905/http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=%2F20070714%2FREPOSITORY%2F707140309%2F Research 2000]
  17. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120206101203/http://www.wmur.com/politics/13717601/detail.html WMUR-CNN]
  18. [https://web.archive.org/web/20071011053617/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/new_hampshire_senate_shaheen_d_48_sununu_43 Rasmussen Reports]
  19. [http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/ American Research Group]
  20. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110522142229/http://www.wmur.com/politics/14263668/detail.html WMUR-CNN]
  21. (March 2024)
  22. [http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/ American Research Group]
  23. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080517200847/http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_winter_cong21108.pdf Granite State Poll]
  24. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080216034216/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/election_2008_new_hampshire_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  25. [http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/ American Research Group]
  26. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080216034216/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/election_2008_new_hampshire_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  27. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080830015105/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_hampshire/new_hampshire_senate_shaheen_50_sununu_43 Rasmussen Reports]
  28. [http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/ American Research Group]
  29. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080216034216/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/election_2008_new_hampshire_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  30. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080907075002/http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_summer_cong72308.pdf Granite State Poll]
  31. [http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/ American Research Group]
  32. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080727020153/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  33. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080727020153/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  34. [http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/ American Research Group]
  35. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080910020512/http://www.nrsc.org/nrscwebimages/press/20080908_NH-Poll-Memo.pdf Public Opinion Strategies]
  36. [http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/ American Research Group]
  37. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110604114558/http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_fall_nhsen92308.pdf Granite State Poll]
  38. [https://web.archive.org/web/20081013230917/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/new_hampshire/toplines_new_hampshire_senate_september_23_2008 Rasmussen Reports]
  39. [https://web.archive.org/web/20081007170007/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/new_hampshire/toplines_new_hampshire_senate_election_october_1_2008 Rasmussen Reports]
  40. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080727020153/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  41. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080727020153/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  42. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7d873f82-2844-46e6-9a04-6b9d983941c9/ Survey USA]
  43. "New Hampshire 2008 Senate race fundraising".
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