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2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee

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2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee

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FieldValue
election_name2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee
countryTennessee
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee
previous_year2004
next_election2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee
next_year2012
election_dateNovember 4, 2008
image1File:John McCain official portrait 2009 (cropped).jpg
image_size200x200px
nominee1**John McCain**
party1Republican Party (United States)
home_state1Arizona
running_mate1**Sarah Palin**
electoral_vote1**11**
popular_vote1**1,479,178**
percentage1**56.85%**
image2File:Obama portrait crop.jpg
nominee2Barack Obama
party2Democratic Party (United States)
home_state2Illinois
running_mate2Joe Biden
electoral_vote20
popular_vote21,087,437
percentage241.79%
map_image{{Switcher
titlePresident
before_electionGeorge W. Bush
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionBarack Obama
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
turnout66.34% 0.02 pp

Main article: 2008 United States presidential election

| [[File:Tennessee Presidential Election Results 2008.svg|350px]] | County results | [[File:TN-2008-pres-districts.svg|350px]] | Congressional district results | [[File:2008 TN Pres.svg|350px]] | Precinct results McCain Obama Tie/No Data

The 2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Republican John McCain defeated Democrat Barack Obama in the state by 15 percentage points. Prior to the election, 17 news organizations had correctly predicted that McCain would easily carry the state, and virtually all polling indicated the same. Most news organizations called Tennessee for McCain immediately after the polls closed. McCain slightly improved upon George W. Bush's performance in 2004, despite the nation as a whole trending significantly Democratic in 2008. This was the first time since 1960 that Tennessee did not back the overall winning candidate in a presidential election. Furthermore, this was the first time it voted differently from swing state Ohio since 1944, and the first time it voted Republican while that state voted Democratic.

McCain became the first Republican to ever carry historically-Democratic Stewart County. , this remains the last time that Houston County and Jackson County have voted for a Democratic presidential nominee or that the party has received more than 40% of the vote. It was one of five states to swing Republican from 2004, along with West Virginia, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2008 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary

Clinton:
Obama:

**Key:***Withdrew*
prior to contest
2008 Tennessee Democratic presidential primaryCandidateVotesPercentageNational delegates
**Hillary Clinton****336,245****53.82%****40**
Barack Obama254,87440.48%28
*John Edwards**27,820**4.45%**0*
*Joe Biden**1,531**0.25%**0*
*Bill Richardson**1,178**0.19%**0*
*Dennis Kucinich**971**0.16%**0*
*Christopher Dodd**526**0.08%**0*
Mike Gravel4610.07%0
Uncommitted3,1580.51%0
**Totals****624,764****100.00%****68**

Republican primary

Main article: 2008 Tennessee Republican presidential primary

Huckabee
McCain
Romney

CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
**Mike Huckabee****190,904****34.37%****25**
John McCain176,09131.84%19
Mitt Romney130,63223.62%8
Ron Paul31,0265.61%0
Fred Thompson*16,2632.94%0
Rudy Giuliani*5,1590.93%0
Alan Keyes9780.18%0
Duncan Hunter*7380.13%0
Tom Tancredo*1940.03%0
Uncommitted1,8300.33%0
**Total****553,005****100%****52**
  • Candidate dropped out of the race before the primary

General election

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

SourceRanking
D.C. Political Report
Cook Political Report
The Takeaway
Electoral-vote.com
The Washington PostWashington Post
Politico
RealClearPolitics
FiveThirtyEight
CQ Politics
The New York Times
CNN
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News
Associated Press
Rasmussen Reports

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#Tennessee

McCain won every single pre-election poll, and each by a double-digit margin of victory. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 55% to 40%.

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $2,941,065 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,481,341.

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $518,659. The Republican ticket spent just $3,526. Obama visited the state once, going to Nashville. McCain visited the state twice, visiting Nashville and Blountville.

Results

By county

CountyJohn McCain
RepublicanBarack Obama
DemocraticVarious candidates
Other partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Totals1,479,17856.85%1,087,43741.79%35,3671.36%391,74115.06%2,601,982
Anderson19,67562.32%11,39636.10%4991.58%8,27926.22%31,570
Bedford10,21765.89%5,02732.42%2631.69%5,19033.47%15,507
Benton3,69657.05%2,64540.82%1382.13%1,05116.23%6,479
Bledsoe3,16666.18%1,51731.71%1012.11%1,64934.47%4,784
Blount35,57168.88%15,25329.53%8211.59%20,31839.35%51,645
Bradley28,33374.19%9,35724.50%5011.31%18,97649.69%38,191
Campbell8,53567.59%3,86730.62%2261.79%4,66836.97%12,628
Cannon3,32260.88%2,01136.85%1242.27%1,31124.03%5,457
Carroll7,45564.01%3,98034.17%2111.82%3,47529.84%11,646
Carter15,85272.82%5,58725.66%3301.52%10,26547.16%21,769
Cheatham10,70265.14%5,49833.47%2281.39%5,20431.67%16,428
Chester4,58771.02%1,79727.82%751.16%2,79043.20%6,459
Claiborne7,17568.86%3,07829.54%1671.60%4,09739.32%10,420
Clay1,67655.98%1,24841.68%702.34%42814.30%2,994
Cocke8,94571.67%3,34026.76%1961.57%5,60544.91%12,481
Coffee13,25063.73%7,13234.30%4081.97%6,11829.43%20,790
Crockett3,99466.16%1,96732.58%761.26%2,02733.58%6,037
Cumberland17,43667.81%7,88930.68%3871.51%9,54737.13%25,712
Davidson102,91538.80%158,42359.73%3,8851.47%-55,508-20.93%265,223
Decatur3,10165.11%1,56632.88%962.01%1,53532.23%4,763
DeKalb4,08557.82%2,83240.08%1482.10%1,25317.74%7,065
Dickson11,67759.82%7,50638.45%3361.73%4,17121.37%19,519
Dyer9,85968.23%4,41130.53%1801.24%5,44837.70%14,450
Fayette12,17363.22%6,89235.80%1890.98%5,28127.42%19,254
Fentress4,78971.06%1,83127.17%1191.77%2,95843.89%6,739
Franklin10,53960.46%6,61337.94%2801.60%3,92622.52%17,432
Gibson13,51663.60%7,40634.85%3311.55%6,11028.75%21,253
Giles6,90259.05%4,61439.47%1731.48%2,28819.58%11,689
Grainger5,29770.60%2,06627.54%1401.86%3,23143.06%7,503
Greene17,15169.52%7,11028.82%4091.66%10,04140.70%24,670
Grundy2,56355.33%1,97142.55%982.12%59212.78%4,632
Hamblen15,50868.41%6,80730.03%3541.56%8,70138.38%22,669
Hamilton81,70255.19%64,24643.40%2,0861.41%17,45611.79%148,034
Hancock1,58870.86%60426.95%492.19%98443.91%2,241
Hardeman5,22546.50%5,91952.67%930.83%-694-6.17%11,237
Hardin7,07770.52%2,79427.84%1641.64%4,28342.68%10,035
Hawkins14,75670.13%5,93028.18%3541.69%8,82641.95%21,040
Haywood3,16538.97%4,89360.25%630.78%-1,728-21.28%8,121
Henderson7,66970.79%3,02127.88%1441.33%4,64842.91%10,834
Henry8,18260.41%5,15338.04%2101.55%3,02922.37%13,545
Hickman4,78456.30%3,56341.93%1511.77%1,22114.37%8,498
Houston1,60847.94%1,67850.03%682.03%-70-2.09%3,354
Humphreys3,81850.37%3,60047.49%1622.14%2182.88%7,580
Jackson2,18548.54%2,22449.41%922.05%-39-0.87%4,501
Jefferson13,09270.65%5,17827.94%2621.41%7,91442.71%18,532
Johnson4,62170.11%1,83727.87%1332.02%2,78442.24%6,591
Knox113,01560.73%70,21537.73%2,8561.53%42,80023.00%186,086
Lake1,17552.50%1,02445.76%391.74%1516.74%2,238
Lauderdale4,93352.83%4,32246.28%830.89%6116.55%9,338
Lawrence10,56665.96%5,16132.22%2931.82%5,40533.74%16,020
Lewis2,95161.05%1,80437.32%791.63%1,14723.73%4,834
Lincoln9,23170.30%3,69528.14%2041.56%5,53642.16%13,130
Loudon15,81571.29%6,05827.31%3111.40%9,75743.98%22,184
Macon5,14569.90%2,06027.99%1552.11%3,08541.91%7,360
Madison23,29053.12%20,20946.09%3470.79%3,0817.03%43,846
Marion6,74658.98%4,50639.40%1851.62%2,24019.58%11,437
Marshall6,75559.84%4,32038.27%2141.89%2,43521.57%11,289
Maury20,28860.08%13,05838.67%4211.25%7,23021.41%33,767
McMinn12,98969.13%5,54129.49%2591.38%7,44839.64%18,789
McNairy7,13568.46%3,13130.04%1561.50%4,00438.42%10,422
Meigs2,79766.01%1,37232.38%681.61%1,42533.63%4,237
Monroe11,48468.45%5,05330.12%2401.43%6,43138.33%16,777
Montgomery30,17553.28%25,71645.40%7481.32%4,4597.88%56,639
Moore2,01068.09%88129.84%612.07%1,12938.25%2,952
Morgan4,71769.14%1,96928.86%1362.00%2,74840.28%6,822
Obion8,87366.26%4,30832.17%2111.57%4,56534.09%13,392
Overton4,49755.57%3,41942.25%1762.18%1,07813.32%8,092
Perry1,59653.20%1,32944.30%752.50%2678.90%3,000
Pickett1,78666.87%85431.97%311.16%93234.90%2,671
Polk4,26765.64%2,12432.67%1101.69%2,14332.97%6,501
Putnam17,10162.60%9,73935.65%4761.75%7,36226.95%27,316
Rhea8,04272.41%2,90726.18%1571.41%5,13546.23%11,106
Roane15,65867.27%7,22431.04%3941.69%8,43436.23%23,276
Robertson17,90364.83%9,31833.74%3931.43%8,58531.09%27,614
Rutherford59,89258.78%40,46039.71%1,5471.51%19,43219.07%101,899
Scott4,93172.70%1,72025.36%1321.94%3,21147.34%6,783
Sequatchie3,61066.40%1,71731.58%1102.02%1,89334.82%5,437
Sevier24,92273.43%8,60425.35%4151.22%16,31848.08%33,941
Shelby145,45835.96%256,29763.35%2,8000.69%-110,839-27.39%404,555
Smith4,56358.95%2,99238.65%1862.40%1,57120.30%7,741
Stewart2,95653.68%2,47044.85%811.47%4868.83%5,507
Sullivan44,80870.02%18,35428.68%8351.30%26,45441.34%63,997
Sumner44,94966.73%21,48731.90%9261.37%23,46234.83%67,362
Tipton17,16567.80%7,93131.33%2200.87%9,23436.47%25,316
Trousdale1,68852.11%1,47545.54%762.35%2136.57%3,239
Unicoi5,01169.38%2,10729.17%1051.45%2,90440.21%7,223
Union4,46769.81%1,82928.58%1031.61%2,63841.23%6,399
Van Buren1,29458.66%84938.49%632.85%44520.17%2,206
Warren8,56259.46%5,51538.30%3232.24%3,04721.16%14,400
Washington32,34166.03%15,94132.54%7001.43%16,40033.49%48,982
Wayne4,07673.75%1,35524.52%961.73%2,72149.23%5,527
Weakley8,85564.68%4,59633.57%2391.75%4,25931.11%13,690
White6,10363.26%3,37234.95%1721.79%2,73128.31%9,647
Williamson64,85869.12%27,88629.72%1,0921.16%36,97239.40%93,836
Wilson34,59567.62%15,88631.05%6781.33%18,70936.57%51,159
Gain from Democratic}} {{col-end}}

;Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Benton (largest municipality: Camden)
  • Clay (largest municipality: Celina)
  • Grundy (largest municipality: Altamont)
  • Humphreys (largest municipality: Waverly)
  • Lake (largest municipality: Tiptonville)
  • Lauderdale (largest municipality: Ripley)
  • Overton (largest municipality: Livingston)
  • Perry (largest municipality: Linden)
  • Smith (largest municipality: Carthage)
  • Stewart (largest municipality: Dover)
  • Trousdale (largest municipality: Hartsville)
  • Van Buren (largest municipality: Spencer)

By congressional district

John McCain swept the state and carried seven of the state's nine congressional districts, including three districts held by Democrats. Barack Obama carried the state's two congressional districts anchored by the two largest cities of Memphis and Nashville.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
**69.77%**28.77%David Davis ([110th Congress](110th-united-states-congress))
Phil Roe ([111th Congress](111th-united-states-congress))
**64.21%**34.28%John J. Duncan Jr.
**61.87%**36.86%Zach Wamp
**64.06%**34.25%Lincoln Davis
42.94%**55.85%**Jim Cooper
**61.87%**36.59%Bart Gordon
**64.76%**34.29%Marsha Blackburn
**56.01%**42.73%John S. Tanner
22.51%**76.92%**Steve Cohen

Electors

Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Tennessee cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Tennessee is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:

  1. Sara Sellers
  2. Jim Haslam
  3. Wayne Cropp
  4. Lisa Wheeler
  5. Beth Campbell
  6. Albert McCall
  7. Shirley Curry
  8. Marilucile Counce
  9. Colin Richmond
  10. Winfield Dunn
  11. Chrystal Horn

Analysis

Despite narrowly voting for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 when former Tennessee Senator Al Gore was on the ticket as Vice President, the state, along with neighboring Arkansas has steadily been trending Republican since then. George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2000 over Gore and easily won in 2004 over John Kerry.

A handful of Tennessean counties—including those that hadn't voted Republican since landslide victors Reagan or Nixon were on the ballot, swung dramatically Republican. For example, Grundy County, in southeastern Tennessee, broke 56%-42% for John Kerry in 2004, but wound up being swept by McCain 55%-42% this year. The state was one of five states that swung even more Republican in 2008 with John McCain soundly defeating Barack Obama in Tennessee. 2008 marked the first time since 1960 whereby the state was carried by the losing presidential candidate. A possible factor to Tennessee ironically swinging rightward—despite the national Democratic trend—could be the state favoring Hillary Clinton, former First Lady of neighboring Arkansas, over Barack Obama in the Democratic primary, as was the case in Arkansas itself.

McCain won both East Tennessee and Middle Tennessee by landslide margins. Historically, East Tennessee, which is a part of Appalachia, is one of the few ancestrally Republican areas of the South. Most of its residents strongly opposed secession during the Civil War. They identified with the GOP after the return of peace and have remained in the Republican fold through good times and bad ever since. Some of the region's counties are among the few in the country to have never supported a Democrat for president.

However, Middle Tennessee has Democratic roots based on liberal economic policies, most famously Franklin D. Roosevelt's Tennessee Valley Authority. Middle Tennessee voted strongly for Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, but Middle Tennessee native Al Gore narrowly lost the region in 2000—a loss that ultimately cost him Tennessee, and the election. In contrast, it was one of the few regions in the country which voted more Republican than in 2004. This is largely due to a growing social conservative trend in the region, particularly in the Nashville suburbs; some of the most politically active churches in the state are located there.

On the other hand, Barack Obama did improve relatively well upon John Kerry's performances in the traditionally Democratic cities of Nashville and Memphis. In the former, support amongst progressive whites led to a 3–2 victory for Obama in Davidson County. In Memphis, heavy African American turnout ensured him the largest margin in the state in Shelby County, although far from enough to outweigh his losses everywhere else in the state. McCain carried Hamilton County and Knox County, home to Chattanooga and Knoxville, the two largest cities in East Tennessee.

During the same election, at the state level, Republicans picked up four seats in the Tennessee House of Representatives and three seats in the Tennessee Senate to obtain control of both chambers of the state legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.

References

References

  1. (November 4, 2008). "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2008". Tennessee Secretary of State.
  2. (2008-02-05). "Democratic Primary Presidential Preference". [[Tennessee Department of State]].
  3. "Republican Primary Presidential Preference".
  4. (2008-02-05). "RESULTS: Tennessee". CNN.
  5. (2009-01-01). "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.".
  6. (2015-05-05). "Presidential".
  7. (2009-04-22). "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions".
  8. "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily".
  9. Based on Takeaway
  10. "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com".
  11. "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map".
  12. "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008".
  13. (2008-11-04). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times.
  14. (2008-10-31). "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN.
  15. (April 27, 2010). "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News.
  16. "roadto270".
  17. "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports".
  18. link. (November 28, 2008)
  19. "Presidential Campaign Finance".
  20. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN.
  21. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN.
  22. "Official General Election Results". The Green Papers.
  23. (November 4, 2008). "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2008". Tennessee Secretary of State.
  24. "Electoral College". [[California Secretary of State]].
  25. "Election Results 2008". New York Times.
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