2008 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2008 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary

The Democratic primary took place February 5, 2008, also known as Super Tuesday. Hillary Clinton won this primary.

Republican primary

Main article: 2008 New Jersey Republican presidential primary

The Republican primary took place on February 5, 2008, with 52 national delegates who were allocated on a winner takes all basis.

• Candidate dropped out of the race before the primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election#New Jersey

Pre-election polling was tight early on. However, since October 12, Obama won each poll with a double-digit margin of victory and with at least 52%. McCain didn't reach over 42% in that stretch. The final 3 polls found Obama leading with 55% to 39%.

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $4,761,251 in the state. Barack Obama raised $13,624,081.

Advertising and visits

Neither candidate spent anything here. The Republican ticket visited the state twice. Obama visited the state once.

Analysis

New Jersey was once one of the most reliably Republican states in the Northeast. From 1948 to 1988, it voted Republican in all but two elections: John F. Kennedy in his narrow victory over Richard Nixon in 1960, and Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide of 1964. However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in New Jersey has historically been a moderate one. As the national party tilted more to the right, the state's voters became more friendly to Democrats. The state narrowly went for Bill Clinton in 1992 and has voted Democratic in every election since then. In all but two elections since 1996, the Democrats have carried it by double digits. While Republicans remain competitive at the state and local level, at the presidential level New Jersey is now reckoned as part of the solid bloc of blue states in the Northeast.

Democrats have several structural advantages in New Jersey during presidential elections. The northeastern portion, including Newark, Jersey City, Elizabeth and Paterson, contains more than half the state's population and is heavily Democratic. The southwestern portion, including Camden, Cherry Hill, and Atlantic City is also heavily Democratic. These regions have a total of over 2,000,000 voters between them, making it extremely difficult for a Republican to carry the state. For instance, in 2004 George W. Bush held John Kerry to only a 7-point margin of victory, but was completely shut out in the northeast and southwest. Additionally, the state is split almost down the middle between the largest and fourth-largest markets in the country, New York City and Philadelphia. As a result, statewide races often feature some of the most expensive advertising budgets in the country.

Unlike in 2004, New Jersey was called for Obama almost as soon as the polls closed.{{cite web|title=2008 Election Night Events Timeline

At the same time, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg was reelected over Republican Dick Zimmer by a 14.08% margin of victory. Lautenberg received 56.03% of the total vote while Zimmer took in 41.95%. Democrats also picked up a vacant U.S. House seat in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district that was previously held by a Republican; Democrat John Adler defeated Republican Chris Myers by a 3.30% margin of victory. Adler received 51.65% of the vote while Myers took in 48.35%.

Results

By county

|[[File:Swing in each New Jersey county from the 2004-2008 presidential elections.svg|300px]]|Shift by county |[[File:Trend in each New Jersey county from the 2004-2008 presidential elections.svg|300px]]|Trend by county | | | | | | | | | | | | | |}}|

Democratic Republican

;Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Salem (largest municipality: Pennsville Township)
• Somerset (largest municipality: Franklin Township)

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried ten of New Jersey's 13 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.

Electors

Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of NJ cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NJ is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:

1. Jose Colon
2. William Fontanez
3. Gina Genovese
4. Wilma Grey
5. Kevin Halpern
6. Victor Herlinsky
7. Stacy Lubrecht
8. Salaheddin Mustafa
9. Peter Nichols
10. William W. Northgrave
11. Ken Saunders
12. Ginger Gold Schnitzer
13. Carl Styles
14. Shavonda Sumter
15. Stephen Weinstein

References

References

1. "General Election Data - 1924 to 2022".
2. "New Jersey Democratic Delegation 2008".
3. "New Jersey Primary Election Results - Election Guide 2008 - Results - The New York Times".
4. "New Jersey Republican Delegation 2008". The Green Papers.
5. "Official Presidential Primary Election Results". New Jersey Department of State.
6. (2009-01-01). "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.".
7. (2015-05-05). "Presidential".
8. (2009-04-22). "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions".
9. "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily".
10. Based on Takeaway
11. "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com".
12. "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map".
13. "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008".
14. (2008-11-04). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times.
15. (2008-10-31). "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN.
16. (April 27, 2010). "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News.
17. "roadto270".
18. "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports".
19. "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
20. "Presidential Campaign Finance".
21. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN.
22. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN.
23. "Electoral College". [[California Secretary of State]].
24. "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates".