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2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey

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Field	Value
election_name	2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey
country	New Jersey
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2000 United States presidential election in New Jersey
previous_year	2000
next_election	2008 United States presidential election in New Jersey
next_year	2008
election_date	November 2, 2004
turnout	72.63% ( 2.55%)
image_size	x200px
image1	John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg
nominee1	John Kerry
party1	Democratic Party (United States)
home_state1	Massachusetts
running_mate1	John Edwards
electoral_vote1	15
popular_vote1	1,911,430
percentage1	52.92%
image2	George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
nominee2	George W. Bush
party2	Republican Party (United States)
home_state2	Texas
running_mate2	Dick Cheney
electoral_vote2	0
popular_vote2	1,670,003
percentage2	46.24%
map_image	{{Switcher
title	President
before_election	George W. Bush
before_party	Republican Party (United States)
after_election	George W. Bush
after_party	Republican Party (United States)

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

| [[File:New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2004.svg|350px]] | County results | [[File:2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey by congressional district.svg|350px]] | Congressional district results | [[File:New Jersey Presidential Results 2004 by Municipality.svg|350px]] | Municipality results}} Kerry Bush The 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Democratic nominee John Kerry defeated Republican incumbent President George W. Bush by a 6.68% margin of victory in New Jersey. Bush, however, was re-elected to the presidency.

Prior to the election, most news organizations considered New Jersey a blue state that Kerry would win. Due to the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks and Democratic Governor Jim McGreevey's resignation following threats of a sexual harassment lawsuit, political observers believed that the presidential contest in New Jersey would be closer than usual. Polls showed Senator John F. Kerry with a slim lead throughout the campaign, and the Republicans invested some campaign funds in the state.

Primaries

2004 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. The table below shows their final predictions before Election Day.

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Cook Political Report
Research 2000
Zogby International
The Washington Post	Washington Post
Washington Dispatch
Washington Times
The New York Times
CNN
Newsweek
Associated Press
Rasmussen Reports

Polling

Kerry led by small margins in most pre-election polls taken in New Jersey. A final three-poll rolling average showed Kerry leading Bush, 49% to 42%.

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	George W.
Bush (R)	John
Kerry (D)	Ralph
Nader (I)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac	June 11–16, 2003	815 RV	±3.4%	53%	37%	–	1%	9%
Quinnipiac	September 18–22, 2003	968 RV	±3.2%	48%	43%	–	9%
Quinnipiac	November 6–10, 2003	1,027 RV	±3.1%	46%	45%	–	1%	7%
Quinnipiac	May 10–16, 2004	1,122 RV	±2.9%	44%	47%	–	1%	7%
43%	46%	5%	1%	6%
Quinnipiac	June 15–20, 2004	1,167 RV	±2.9%	41%	49%	–	2%	7%
40%	46%	7%	0%	7%
Quinnipiac{{cite web	publisher=Quinnipiac Poll	title=Kerry Bounces In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Low Bush Approval, Little Support For War	date=August 5, 2004	access-date=August 28, 2025}}	July 30–August 2, 2004	996 RV	±3.1%	38%	52%	–	2%
36%	49%	6%	1%	8%
Quinnipiac	August 19–23, 2004	887 RV	±3.3%	39%	51%	–	1%	8%
39%	49%	4%	1%	8%
Quinnipiac	September 16–19, 2004	672 LV	±3.8%	48%	48%	2%	0%	2%
48%	49%	–	1%	2%
943 RV	±3.2%	43%	47%	3%	1%	6%
Quinnipiac	October 1–4, 2004	819 LV	±3.4%	46%	49%	2%	1%	3%
46%	49%	–	1%	4%
Quinnipiac	October 14–17, 2004	786 LV	±2.9%	45%	49%	1%	0%	4%
45%	50%	–	0%	5%
1,123 RV	±2.9%	39%	46%	2%	0%	12%
Quinnipiac	October 21–25, 2004	852 LV	±3.4%	46%	46%	2%	1%	6%
1,179 RV	±2.9%	41%	45%	2%	1%	12%
Quinnipiac	October 27–31, 2004	984 LV	±3.1%	43%	48%	2%	1%	6%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	George W.
Bush (R)	Generic
Democrat	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac	December 3–9, 2002	934 RV	±3.2%	43%	45%	2%	9%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	George W.
Bush (R)	Wesley
Clark (D)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac	September 18–22, 2003	968 RV	±3.2%	47%	42%	11%
Quinnipiac	November 6–10, 2003	1,027 RV	±3.1%	47%	45%	1%	8%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	George W.
Bush (R)	Hillary
Clinton (D)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac	June 11–16, 2003	815 RV	±3.4%	54%	38%	2%	7%
Quinnipiac	September 18–22, 2003	968 RV	±3.2%	47%	45%	8%
Quinnipiac	November 6–10, 2003	1,027 RV	±3.1%	46%	45%	1%	7%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	George W.
Bush (R)	Howard
Dean (D)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac	September 18–22, 2003	968 RV	±3.2%	50%	40%	10%
Quinnipiac	November 6–10, 2003	1,027 RV	±3.1%	48%	45%	1%	6%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	George W.
Bush (R)	Dick
Gephardt (D)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac	September 18–22, 2003	968 RV	±3.2%	48%	44%	8%
Quinnipiac	November 6–10, 2003	1,027 RV	±3.1%	48%	45%	1%	6%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	George W.
Bush (R)	Al
Gore (D)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac	December 3–9, 2002	934 RV	±3.2%	48%	45%	2%	5%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	George W.
Bush (R)	Joe
Lieberman (D)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac	June 11–16, 2003	815 RV	±3.4%	53%	39%	1%	7%
Quinnipiac	September 18–22, 2003	968 RV	±3.2%	49%	44%	7%
Quinnipiac	November 6–10, 2003	1,027 RV	±3.1%	46%	47%	1%	5%

Fundraising

Bush raised $5,934,011 from New Jersey donors, while Kerry raised $6,513,274.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey	Party	Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Democratic	John Kerry	1,911,430	52.92%	15
Republican	George W. Bush (Inc.)	1,670,003	46.24%	0
Independent	Ralph Nader	19,418	0.54%	0
Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	4,514	0.12%	0
Constitution	Michael Peroutka	2,750	0.08%	0
Green	David Cobb	1,807	0.05%	0
Socialist	Walt Brown	664	0.02%	0
Socialist Equality	Bill Van Auken	575	0.02%	0
Socialist Workers	Roger Calero	530	0.01%	0
Totals	3,611,691	100.00%	15
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered)	56%/72%

By county

County	John Kerry
Democratic	George W. Bush
Republican	Various candidates
Other parties	Margin	Total votes cast	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Totals	1,911,430	52.92%	1,670,003	46.23%	30,704	0.85%	241,427	6.69%	3,612,137
	Atlantic		55,746		52.54%		49,487		46.64%		864		0.81%		6,259		5.90%		106,097
	Bergen		207,666		51.88%		189,833		47.43%		2,745		0.69%		17,833		4.45%		400,244
	Burlington		110,411		53.09%		95,936		46.13%		1,609		0.77%		14,475		6.96%		207,956
	Camden		137,765		62.36%		81,427		36.86%		1,741		0.79%		56,338		25.50%		220,933
	Cape May		21,475		42.31%		28,832		56.80%		455		0.90%		−7,357		−14.49%		50,762
	Cumberland		27,875		52.41%		24,362		45.81%		948		1.78%		3,513		6.60%		53,185
	Essex		203,681		70.39%		83,374		28.81%		2,293		0.79%		120,307		41.58%		289,348
	Gloucester		66,835		52.23%		60,033		46.91%		1,096		0.86%		6,802		5.32%		127,964
	Hudson		127,447		67.24%		60,646		31.99%		1,461		0.77%		66,801		35.25%		189,554
	Hunterdon		26,050		39.07%		39,888		59.82%		742		1.11%		−13,838		−20.75%		66,680
	Mercer		91,580		61.25%		56,604		37.86%		1,326		0.89%		34,976		23.39%		149,510
	Middlesex		166,628		56.33%		126,492		42.76%		2,685		0.91%		40,136		13.57%		295,805
	Monmouth		133,773		44.60%		163,650		54.56%		2,516		0.84%		−29,877		−9.96%		299,939
	Morris		98,066		41.70%		135,241		57.51%		1,847		0.79%		−37,175		−15.81%		235,154
	Ocean		99,839		38.93%		154,204		60.13%		2,424		0.95%		−54,365		−21.20%		256,467
	Passaic		94,962		55.43%		75,200		43.90%		1,149		0.67%		19,762		11.53%		171,311
	Salem		13,749		46.17%		15,721		52.79%		311		1.04%		−1,972		−6.62%		29,781
	Somerset		66,476		47.39%		72,508		51.69%		1,295		0.92%		−6,032		−4.30%		140,279
	Sussex		23,990		34.54%		44,506		64.08%		962		1.38%		−20,516		−29.54%		69,458
	Union		119,372		58.66%		82,517		40.55%		1,613		0.79%		36,855		18.11%		203,502
	Warren		18,044		37.43%		29,542		61.28%		622		1.29%		−11,498		−23.85%		48,208

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Salem (largest municipality: Pennsville Township)
Monmouth (largest municipality: Middletown Township)

|[[File:Swing in each New Jersey county from the 2000-2004 presidential elections.svg|300px]]|Shift by county |[[File:Trend in each New Jersey county from the 2000-2004 presidential elections.svg|300px]]|Trend by county | | | | | | | | | | | | | |}}|

Democratic Republican

By congressional district

Kerry won seven of 13 congressional districts.

District	Kerry	Representative
61%	39%	Rob Andrews
49%	50%	Frank LoBiondo
49%	51%	Jim Saxton
44%	56%	Chris Smith
43%	57%	Scott Garrett
57%	43%	Frank Pallone Jr.
47%	53%	Mike Ferguson
59%	41%	Bill Pascrell
59%	41%	Steve Rothman
82%	18%	Donald Payne
42%	58%	Rodney Frelinghuysen
54%	46%	Rush Holt Jr.
69%	31%	Bob Menendez

Analysis

Generally, Kerry was very dominant in the urban centers of the state, particularly in Essex, Hudson, and Camden Counties. Bush won the largely rural parts of the state, such as the Northwest (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris) and Salem County in the southwest. He also carried the shore counties of Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May.

This would also be the first election in which a Northern Democrat carried New Jersey since 1960 when fellow Massachusetts Democrat John F. Kennedy did so. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state were all from the South (Lyndon B. Johnson was from Texas, Bill Clinton from Arkansas, and Al Gore from Tennessee), even though New Jersey is a northern state. This is the first time a president was elected twice without ever carrying any of the state's electoral votes either time, and only the second occasion (after 1860 and 1864) that any president won two terms without ever carrying the state's popular vote either time.

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state of New Jersey in 2004. All 15 were pledged to support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards.

Warren Wallace
Wilfredo Caraballo
Tom Canzanella
Carolyn Walch
Peggy Anastos
Bernard Kenny
Ronald Rice
Abed Awad
Jack McGreevey – (Father of former Gov. James McGreevey)
Wendy Benchle
Loni Kaplan
Carolyn Wade
Riletta L. Cream
Bernadette McPherson
Upendra Chivukula

References

"General Election Data - 1924 to 2022".
(October 29, 2004). "D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings".
(2004). "Election poll data".
(June 19, 2003). "Bush Has Big Lead Over Dem Challengers In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Hillary Clinton Would Dominate Dem Pack". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(September 25, 2003). "Bush Approval Slips To A Break Even In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrats Are Nipping At His Heels". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(November 13, 2003). "Bush Approval Drops Again In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Top Democrats Now Run Neck-And-Neck With President". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(May 20, 2004). "Kerry Edges Bush By Only 3 Points In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Concerns About Iraq, Terrorism Help President". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(June 23, 2004). "Bush Drops, Giving Kerry Bigger Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; President's Approval At All-Time Low In State". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(August 25, 2004). "Kerry Holds 10-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Corzine Buries GOP Contenders In Gov Race". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(September 21, 2004). "Terrorism Fear Lifts Bush To Dead Heat In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Iraq War Is Wrong And Economy Is Bad". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(October 6, 2004). "Debate Gives Kerry 3-Point Edge In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Voters Say Bush Acts More Like A Leader". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(October 19, 2004). "Kerry Has 4-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat Matches Bush On Vision, But Not Leadership". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(October 27, 2004). "Bush, Kerry In Dead Heat In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Terrorism Concerns, Campaign Visit Help President". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(November 1, 2004). "Quinnipiac University Poll Results In 3 Key States: * Bush Leads Kerry 51 - 43 Percent In Florida; * Bush, Kerry In Dead Heat In Pennsylvania; * Kerry Is Ahead 48 - 43 Percent In New Jersey". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(December 13, 2002). "Bush VS. Gore II Is Neck & Neck In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Ex V.P. Is Top Choice Of Garden State Dems". [[Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
"John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
"Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - New Jersey 2004".
"Official General Election Candidates List".
"Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
(May 20, 2019). "U. S. Electoral College 2004 Certificate".

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